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Zimbabwe Economy - October 2009

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    Notes on slide 1

    The five-year decline in the manufacturing output index from 108 in 1997 to 64 in 200 3 amounts to a cumulative fall of 40,7 %.

    The five-year decline in the manufacturing output index from 108 in 1997 to 64 in 200 3 amounts to a cumulative fall of 40,7 %.

    After the removal of subsidies with the abolition of monopoly trading rights enjoyed by state marketing authorities, stock-feed production declined and became very much more expensive. Government acquisitions of commercial farmland also affected livestock and the processing of all animal products in the manufacturing sector. Dairy products were among those affected by rising costs and by 2002 output had fallen to nearly half the figures for a decade earlier. Estimate

    Disappointing prices in 1998 and the demand that the levy imposed on growers should be paid even if prices were below production costs caused about 1400 small-scale growers to stop producing the crop.

    Disappointing prices in 1998 and the demand that the levy imposed on growers should be paid even if prices were below production costs caused about 1400 small-scale growers to stop producing the crop.

    Gross Domestic Product has declined every year since 1999. Compounding the percentages shown since then and factoring in a revised estimate of minus 11,5% for 2007, GDP will be only 55% of its 1998 level by the end of 2007. As in previous graphs, the years in which severe droughts were experienced are shown. Government has claimed that the agricultural failures since land reform were the results of droughts and illegal economic sanctions, but the economic sanctions do not exist and the only severe drought hit only the southern half of Zimbabwe in the 2006 / 2007 growing season. Some other seasons had been disappointing, which is a very common occurrence in Zimbabwe, but good crops would have been possible in those years if the experienced commercial farmers had still been on the land. The ruling party in Zimbabwe has chosen not to be persuaded by arguments that claim the current problems stem from the land reform programme , or that these were all accentuated by the profound linkages between agriculture and every other economic and social sector in the country. Instead, they have preferred to argue that colonialism and residual western influences have conspired to undermine traditional African socialist and communal ownership traditions and values. All policy prescriptions have therefore been backward-looking to romantic portrayals of less demanding pastoral lifestyles, while the systems of governance proposed have been discipline-orientated to encourage compliance and unquestioned obedience to the leadership.

    Gross Domestic Product has declined every year since 1999. Compounding the percentages shown since then and factoring in a revised estimate of minus 11,5% for 2007, GDP will be only 55% of its 1998 level by the end of 2007. As in previous graphs, the years in which severe droughts were experienced are shown. Government has claimed that the agricultural failures since land reform were the results of droughts and illegal economic sanctions, but the economic sanctions do not exist and the only severe drought hit only the southern half of Zimbabwe in the 2006 / 2007 growing season. Some other seasons had been disappointing, which is a very common occurrence in Zimbabwe, but good crops would have been possible in those years if the experienced commercial farmers had still been on the land. The ruling party in Zimbabwe has chosen not to be persuaded by arguments that claim the current problems stem from the land reform programme , or that these were all accentuated by the profound linkages between agriculture and every other economic and social sector in the country. Instead, they have preferred to argue that colonialism and residual western influences have conspired to undermine traditional African socialist and communal ownership traditions and values. All policy prescriptions have therefore been backward-looking to romantic portrayals of less demanding pastoral lifestyles, while the systems of governance proposed have been discipline-orientated to encourage compliance and unquestioned obedience to the leadership.

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    Zimbabwe Economy - October 2009 - Presentation Transcript

    1. THE ZIMBABWE ECONOMY October 2009
    2. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX Re-based: December 2008 = 100 INDEX: Dec 2008=100 US DOLLAR PRICES Robertson Economic Information Services HOUSING TRANSPORT EDUCATION HEALTH RESTAURANTS ALL ITEMS FOOD CLOTHING
    3. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX Revised & Re-based: December 2008 = 100 INDEX: Dec 2008=100 US DOLLAR PRICES Robertson Economic Information Services ALL ITEMS INDEX 2009 Ministry of Finance Forecast 106,4% Dec
    4. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX Revised & Re-based: December 2008 = 100 INDEX: Dec 2008=100 US DOLLAR PRICES Robertson Economic Information Services ALL ITEMS INDEX Independent FORECAST 2009
    5. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX Re-based: December 2008 = 100 INDEX: Dec 2008=100 US DOLLAR PRICES Robertson Economic Information Services CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR ALL ITEMS INDEX FOOD INDEX
    6. RAND PER U.S. DOLLAR April 1 to October 16 2009 RAND PER U.S. DOLLAR Robertson Economic Information Services
    7. RAND PER U.S. DOLLAR April 1 to October 16 2009 RAND PER U.S. DOLLAR Robertson Economic Information Services
    8. EXCHANGE RATE INDEX Base: Apr 1 2009=100: Y, R, £ & C per US$ = = INDEX: April 1 2009=100 RAND EURO POUND YEN Robertson Economic Information Services U S DOLLAR
    9. HOURLY WAGE COMPARISONS US Dollars an hour @ US$150 a month
    10. BASIS OF CALCULATION OF ZIMBABWEAN HOURLY RATE
    11. SUPERMARKET PRICE TRENDS Transport Operators’ Association
    12.  
    13. GOLD PRODUCTION VOLUMES Robertson Economic Information Services KILOGRAMS PER YEAR LOWEST ANNUAL OUTPUT SINCE PRE-1907
    14. GOLD PRICES January 3 2005 to Oct 16 2009 Daily London Bullion Market Prices Robertson Economic Information Services US DOLLARS PER OUNCE | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | US$1059,50
    15. COAL MINING PRODUCTION VOLUMES TONNES Robertson Economic Information Services
    16. MINING VOLUME INDICES Index: 1998 = 100 INDEX: 1998 = 100
    17. MINING VOLUME INDICES Index: 1998 = 100 INDEX: 1998 = 100 NICKEL FERROCHROME GRAPHITE COAL PHOSPHATE GOLD ASBESTOS
    18. MANUFACTURING All Groups Annual Indices INDEX: 1990 = 100 Robertson Economic Information Services - 86% Ministry of Finance Estimates
    19. MANUFACTURING All Groups Annual Indices INDEX: 1990 = 100 Robertson Economic Information Services Estimate Ministry of Finance Estimates + Forecast
    20. MANUFACTURING Food Production INDEX: 1990 = 100 Robertson Economic Information Services ALL ITEMS AVERAGE Estimate
    21. FARMLAND DISTRIBUTION PERCENTAGES IN 1996 Robertson Economic Information Services Source: Commercial Farmers Union
    22. FARMLAND DISTRIBUTION PERCENTAGES IN 2007 Robertson Economic Information Services Source: Commercial Farmers Union
    23. FARMLAND DISTRIBUTION PERCENTAGES IN 2009 Robertson Economic Information Services Source: Commercial Farmers Union
    24. AGRICULTURE Maize Production Robertson Economic Information Services
    25. AGRICULTURE Wheat Production Robertson Economic Information Services
    26. AGRICULTURE Soya Production Robertson Economic Information Services
    27. AGRICULTURE Tea Production Robertson Economic Information Services
    28. AGRICULTURE Coffee Production Robertson Economic Information Services
    29. AGRICULTURE Paprika Production Robertson Economic Information Services
    30. AGRICULTURE Citrus Production Robertson Economic Information Services
    31. AGRICULTURE Cut Flowers Production Robertson Economic Information Services
    32. AGRICULTURE Fresh Produce Production Robertson Economic Information Services
    33. AGRICULTURE Beef Cattle Slaughtered Robertson Economic Information Services
    34. AGRICULTURE Whole Milk Deliveries -- Litres ’000 Thousands of Litres Produced Robertson Economic Information Services Estimates
    35. AGRICULTURE Sugar Production Robertson Economic Information Services
    36. AGRICULTURE Sugar Production Robertson Economic Information Services
    37. AGRICULTURE Barley Production Robertson Economic Information Services
    38. FLUE-CURED TOBACCO Commercial Growers - Mass Sold Robertson Economic Information Services MASS SOLD Thousands of Tonnes
    39. AGRICULTURE Cotton Production Robertson Economic Information Services
    40. AGRICULTURE Sorghum Production Robertson Economic Information Services
    41. AGRICULTURE Production Volume Indices: 2000=100 SUGAR COTTON TEA CITRUS DAIRY BEEF SOYA MAIZE TOBACCO COFFEE WHEAT INDEX: 2000 = 100
    42. AMMONIUM NITRATE PRODUCTION TONNES ACTUAL OUTPUT BUDGETED OUTPUT Source: Sable Chemicals
    43. FERTILISER PRICES US$ PER 50 kg Bag
    44. AGRICULTURE Barley Production Robertson Economic Information Services
    45. FLUE-CURED TOBACCO Commercial Growers - Mass Sold Robertson Economic Information Services MASS SOLD Thousands of Tonnes
    46. AGRICULTURE Cotton Production Robertson Economic Information Services
    47. AGRICULTURE Sorghum Production Robertson Economic Information Services
    48. AGRICULTURE Production Volume Indices: 2000=100 SUGAR COTTON TEA CITRUS DAIRY BEEF SOYA MAIZE TOBACCO COFFEE WHEAT INDEX: 2000 = 100
    49. AMMONIUM NITRATE PRODUCTION TONNES ACTUAL OUTPUT BUDGETED OUTPUT Source: Sable Chemicals
    50. FERTILISER PRICES US$ PER 50 kg Bag
    51. POLITICAL TIMELINE 2008 to 2011 Hyper- inflation Dollarisation Consultation Period Stakeholders Conference July 9 - 13 Draft Constitution February 2010 Constitutional Referendum July 2010 Enactment of new Constitution September 2010 GENERAL ELECTION BY Jan 2011
    52. POLITICAL TIMELINE 2008 to 2014 Hyper- inflation Consultation Period Draft Constitution February 2010 Stakeholders Conference July 9 - 13 Dollar- isation Constitutional Referendum July 2010 Enactment of new Constitution September 2010 GENERAL ELECTION BY Jan 2011
    53. POLITICAL TIMELINE 2008 to 2014 Hyper- inflation Consultation Period Draft Constitution February 2010 Stakeholders Conference July 9 - 13 Dollar- isation Constitutional Referendum July 2010 Enactment of new Constitution September 2010 GENERAL ELECTION BY Jan 2011 RECOVERY?
      • We successfully restore our power stations
      • We start now to restructure our banks
      • We start now to rebuild export revenues
      • We start now to become attractive to:
        • Productive sector investors
        • International Bankers
        • Skilled workers
        • Foreign customers
      A RECOVERY WILL BE ACHIEVED ONLY IF…
    55. BANKS RANKED BY DEPOSITS US$
    56. BANKS RANKED BY LENDING US$
    57. TOTAL LENDING: % OF DEPOSITS %
    58. GOVERNMENT REVENUE & EXPENDITURE US$ ‘millions 2009 Robertson Economic Information Services REVENUE EXPENDITURE
    59. GOVERNMENT REVENUE & EXPENDITURE US$ ‘millions 2009 CIVIL SERVICE GRANTS PENSIONS OPERATIONS ZIMRA UNALLOCATED RESERVE CAPITAL EXP. INTEREST TRANSFERS Robertson Economic Information Services BY MID-AUGUST
    60. GOVERNMENT REVENUE & EXPENDITURE US$ ‘millions 2009 STILL TO BE COLLECTED BY YEAR-END STILL TO BE BORROWED BY YEAR-END BUDGETED SPENDING BY YEAR-END COLLECTED BY AUGUST Robertson Economic Information Services
    61. BALANCE OF TRADE 2000 TO 2008 EXPORTS & IMPORTS in US$’millions Robertson Economic Information Services Source: Budget Review Jul 2009
    62. BALANCE OF TRADE & DEBT 2000 TO 2008 EXPORTS & IMPORTS in US$’millions Robertson Economic Information Services Source: Budget Review Jul 2009 DEBT ARREARS
    63. TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT MILLIONS OF US DOLLARS US$’millions Source: IMF Robertson Economic Information Services Estimates
    64. EXTERNAL DEBT % of GDP -- IMF Forecasts PERCENTAGE OF GDP ARREARS
    65. DEBT RATIOS DEBT GDP PERCENT Robertson Economic Information Services
    66. DEBT RATIOS DEBT EXPORTS PERCENT Robertson Economic Information Services
    67. DEBT RATIOS DEBT BUDGET REVENUE PERCENT Robertson Economic Information Services
    68. OVERDUE: SDR89m = US$139m Robertson Economic Information Services
    69. GDP ANNUAL % CHANGE
      • Estimates
      SEVERE DROUGHT YEARS . Source: CSO + IMF + Robertson Forecasts LAND REFORM
    70. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT US$ per year per person GDP per Capita in US$ Robertson Economic Information Services IMF projection
    71. GDP FORCASTS - IMF % CHANGE PER YEAR
    72. GDP FORCASTS – MINISTRY OF FINANCE % CHANGE PER YEAR
    73. GDP FORCASTS – INDEPENDENT ESTIMATE % CHANGE PER YEAR
    74. GDP ANNUAL % CHANGE IMF Forecasts
      • Estimates
      LAND REFORM Source: CSO + IMF + Robertson Forecasts IMF projection
    75. GDP COMPARISONS: Southern African Countries US Dollars per Head per Year Robertson Economic Information Services
    76. COMPARITIVE POPULATION GROWTH RATES – 20 TH CENTURY 3,6 - fold NUMBER OF TIMES POPULATION HAS INCREASED
    77. COMPARITIVE POPULATION GROWTH RATES – 20 TH CENTURY 3,6 - fold 5,8 - fold NUMBER OF TIMES POPULATION HAS INCREASED
    78. COMPARITIVE POPULATION GROWTH RATES – 20 TH CENTURY 3,6 - fold 5,8 - fold 17,1- fold NUMBER OF TIMES POPULATION HAS INCREASED
    79. POPULATION GROWTH 1890 TO 1990 POPULATION OF ZIMBABWE GROWTH: 20 – FOLD IN 100 YEARS
    80. TOTAL POPULATION OF ZIMBABWE Robertson Economic Information Services Emigration + HIV ?
    81. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION United States of America FOOD PRODUCTION AS % OF REQUIREMENTS FARMERS AS % OF POPULATION PERCENT
    82. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION Zimbabwe FOOD PRODUCTION AS % OF REQUIREMENTS FARMERS AS % OF POPULATION PERCENT
    83. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION Zimbabwe? FOOD PRODUCTION AS % OF REQUIREMENTS FARMERS AS % OF POPULATION PERCENT LAND REFORM
    84. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION Zimbabwe? FOOD PRODUCTION AS % OF REQUIREMENTS FARMERS AS % OF POPULATION PERCENT LAND REFORM ?
    85. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION Zimbabwe? FOOD PRODUCTION AS % OF REQUIREMENTS FARMERS AS % OF POPULATION PERCENT LAND REFORM
    86. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION Zimbabwe? FOOD PRODUCTION AS % OF REQUIREMENTS FARMERS AS % OF POPULATION PERCENT LAND REFORM FOOD AID

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