1. The Math that Matters in the Realtime Web
SXSW 2012 | #MathMatters
Gilad Lotan | @gilgul

2. Illustra(on:
Ma.
Taylor

3. Attention is the Bottleneck
Flickr:
mangpages

4. Information Flows through People
Alex
Dragulescu

5. $ = f(Channel, Demographics, Time, …)
Flickr:
sharynmorrow

6. $ = f(Topic, Network, Timing, Influence, Trust, “engagement” …)

8. Daily Routines

9. Data Reflects Us

10. Language / Time Zone
49ers:
36,
Saints:
32

11. Typical Sports Event
Game
ends!
49ers
Game
starts

12. GOP debates

14. #gayrights,
#lgbt,
#jesus,
#pales(ne,
#OWS,
#immigra(on,
#flipflop,
#jobs,
#economy
#abor(on
#republican,
#dems,
#economics,
#amnesty

15. • Know your data
• Identify deviations from the norm (important
events)
• Identify types of events (shape of the curve)
• Understand context (language)
• Co-occurrence (relationship between terms)

16. Invisible Audiences
Flickr:
leN-­‐hand

17. Seeing Millions of Conversations

19. Difference between Audiences
Al-Jazeera
Fox News

20. What Audiences are Clicking on?

21. Shape of an Audience

22. Noblesville,
IN
Birmingham,
AL
Oklahoma
City
Engelwood,
Dayton,
OH
Pi.sburgh

23. 1.4m
4.6m
3.9m
1.7m
620k
879k

24. • 28.7%
of
those
who
follow
The
Economist
also
follow
the
New
York
Times.
This
is
the
highest
intersec(on
in
terms
of
percentage.
• 19%
of
those
who
follow
Al-­‐Jazeera
English
also
follow
the
New
York
Times.
• Of
the
people
who
follow
either
CNN
or
New
York
Times,
9.5%
follow
both.
• 663
users
follow
all
six
news
accounts.

25. Clicks per Tweet
RT per Tweet (norm)
Clicks per Tweet (norm)

26. • Know your audience
– What they talk about (audience TTs)
– Who else they follow
– Their shape (clusters)
• More followers != More engagement
• Driving traffic vs. Building a Network (reach)

27. Information Flows

28. Influencer:
An individual who disproportionately affects the spread of information

29. “Influence” as an Exposed Metric is Problematic
• Simple quantifiable measure
• People aren’t always rational – may trust
someone despite past transgressions
• Dynamic – changes constantly
• Exogenous – may come from outside the
observed network
• Based on Context

33. Gaining Your Network’s Trust

34. Urban Outfitters vs. NYC Crafters

35. Going Viral is Usually Unexpected

36. Network Type + Resonance > Network Size
“I’m
not
a
Twi.er
celebrity
by
any
means.
I
barely
had
over
1000
followers
when
the
day
began...
What
I
do
have
is
a
tribe.
A
#ght
knit
group
of
independent
ar#sts
and
cra4ers
that
follow
me.
My
cause
resounded
with
them.
They
spread
it,
and
their
friends
spread
it,
and
a
few
big
influencers
on
Twi.er
spread
it,
and
then
it
was
gone”

39. Not necessarily about being first

42. Instead of “Influence”, think about:
• Trust
• Context Setting
• Having the right network in place (“tribe”)
• Bridges

44. - Know your audience
What type of people follow you, how they’re connected
Alignment between content and audience
- No to vanity metrics
more followers doesn’t necessarily mean more engagement
- Bridges vs. Influencers
just because we’re connected doesn’t mean information will flow
- Clicks vs. Retweets
what are you optimizing for?
- Building up the Right Network
trust, resonance
- Not about being first

45. Thank You
Gilad Lotan | @gilgul
gilad@socialflow.com