The Math That Matters

The Math that Matters in the Realtime Web SXSW 2012 | #MathMatters Gilad Lotan | @gilgul

Illustra(on: Ma. Taylor

Attention is the Bottleneck Flickr: mangpages

Information Flows through People Alex Dragulescu

$ = f(Channel, Demographics, Time, …) Flickr: sharynmorrow

$ = f(Topic, Network, Timing, Inﬂuence, Trust, “engagement” …)

Daily Routines

Data Reﬂects Us

Language / Time Zone 49ers: 36, Saints: 32

Typical Sports Event Game ends! 49ers Game starts

GOP debates

#gayrights, #lgbt, #jesus, #pales(ne, #OWS, #immigra(on, #ﬂipﬂop, #jobs, #economy #abor(on #republican, #dems, #economics, #amnesty

•  Know your data•  Identify deviations from the norm (important events)•  Identify types of events (shape of the curve)•  Understand context (language)•  Co-occurrence (relationship between terms)

Invisible AudiencesFlickr: leN-‐hand

Seeing Millions of Conversations

Difference between Audiences Al-Jazeera Fox News

What Audiences are Clicking on?

Shape of an Audience

Noblesville, IN Birmingham, AL Oklahoma City Engelwood, Dayton, OH Pi.sburgh

1.4m 4.6m 3.9m 1.7m 620k 879k

•  28.7% of those who follow The Economist also follow the New York Times. This is the highest intersec(on in terms of percentage. •  19% of those who follow Al-‐Jazeera English also follow the New York Times. •  Of the people who follow either CNN or New York Times, 9.5% follow both. •  663 users follow all six news accounts.

Clicks per TweetRT per Tweet (norm) Clicks per Tweet (norm)

•  Know your audience –  What they talk about (audience TTs) –  Who else they follow –  Their shape (clusters)•  More followers != More engagement•  Driving trafﬁc vs. Building a Network (reach)

Information Flows

Inﬂuencer: An individual who disproportionately affects the spread of information

“Inﬂuence” as an Exposed Metric is Problematic•  Simple quantiﬁable measure•  People aren’t always rational – may trust someone despite past transgressions•  Dynamic – changes constantly•  Exogenous – may come from outside the observed network•  Based on Context

Gaining Your Network’s Trust

Urban Outﬁtters vs. NYC Crafters

Going Viral is Usually Unexpected

Network Type + Resonance > Network Size “I’m not a Twi.er celebrity by any means. I barely had over 1000 followers when the day began... What I do have is a tribe. A #ght knit group of independent ar#sts and cra4ers that follow me. My cause resounded with them. They spread it, and their friends spread it, and a few big inﬂuencers on Twi.er spread it, and then it was gone”

Not necessarily about being ﬁrst

Instead of “Inﬂuence”, think about: •  Trust•  Context Setting•  Having the right network in place (“tribe”)•  Bridges

-  Know your audience What type of people follow you, how they’re connected Alignment between content and audience-  No to vanity metrics more followers doesn’t necessarily mean more engagement-  Bridges vs. Influencers just because we’re connected doesn’t mean information will flow-  Clicks vs. Retweets what are you optimizing for?-  Building up the Right Network trust, resonance -  Not about being first

Thank You Gilad Lotan | @gilgul gilad@socialﬂow.com

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The Math That Matters

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