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Opportunity analysis
and theory of change
- introduction -
Knowledge
Know-how
Motivation
Behavior
Market
(society)
The approach of the “traditional” entrepreneur
Knowledge
Know-how
Passion
Behavior
Vision
Society
(needs)
Operations oriented
for a social change
Resources
and infrastructure
Financial
products
Investments and
working capital
So...
Corporate responsibility
Strategy
Business model
Gouvernance
Values
ISO 26000
Principles of action
Looking at the many fac...
In a systemic approach, the faces
of the organization are a superposition of models
ValuesValues
Permanent model
«mission»...
How do we link all that to the TOC ?
Situation analysis
Claude Michaud
Opportunity
or situation
analysis
claude.michaud@socialbusinessmodels.ch
Fribourg May 2014
Where?
With whom?
Why?
Verifiable ?
Who?
With what? What?
By what ?
Our
values
But how to begin an opportunity analysis?
Where?
So, lets start with the context !
Rich picture of the context The rules are
very simple!
Where?
PESTEL: in which context, which domain,
who influences, with how much intensity?
Don’t forget:
Your stakeholders also influences your organization!
Public
sector
Politics
Funders
Suppliers
Concurrents
So...
Its your turn!
• Group in pairs of organizations
• Take 10 minutes to each design your rich picture and 5
minutes to check...
Why and for whom?
Short term
outputs
Specific
outcomes
Global
impacts
• “In the customer shoes”
• Problem tree
• Goals/obj...
Putting yourself in the "customer shoes“
to understand the problem!
Thinks and feels
Sees
Speaks
Listens
Does
Has needs
Be...
Why? – Problems tree
Consequences
Causes
Central problem
Our
values
Why – problems tree
• We start with a central problem
• We go down listing the causes:
– Asking why?… why?… why?
(like a s...
Problems tree example: shea butter production
The shea butter production
is low and
the quality is poor
There are long
tra...
Problems tree example: shea butter production
Backfeed!
(vicious circle)
Why and for whom?
Society
Directs & indirect
customers
Beneficiaries
Our
values
Who: what are the target audiences?
Our
values
• Who are the direct beneficiaries?
• Who are the indirect beneficiaries?
•...
Why – transformation in objectives tree
• We modify the problem tree
transforming the negative sentences
into positive sen...
Objectives tree example: shea butter production
The shea butter production
is low and
the quality is poor
There are long
t...
Its your turn!
• Group in pairs of organizations
• Take around 15 + 10 minutes to each create the
problem tree for which y...
What’s next? – Intervention strategy
Break time !
The link between TOC and the objective tree
Context: Where is our organization is working?
Issue: What is the key issue we are facing?
Domain: In what sector/domain d...
Verifiable – How to measure progress through KPI’s
Our
values
Short term
outputs
Long term
outcomes
Big goal
Thanks for your attention
www.socialbusinessmodels.ch
www.dalberg.com
Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014
Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014
Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014
Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014
Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014
Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014
Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014
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Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014

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This is the presentation and exercices that were used during a workshop for the first 2014 seminar of the Ashoka's Impact program in Switzerland, given for the third consecutive year.

The work shop is about opportunity analysis for social entrepreneurs, integrated with Dalberg's Theory of Change.

Rich picture, PESTEL analysis, Problem and objective trees, all around a Social Business Model canvas.

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Transcript of "Ashoka - Opportunity analysis & TOC workshop - may 2014"

  1. 1. Opportunity analysis and theory of change - introduction -
  2. 2. Knowledge Know-how Motivation Behavior Market (society) The approach of the “traditional” entrepreneur
  3. 3. Knowledge Know-how Passion Behavior Vision Society (needs)
  4. 4. Operations oriented for a social change Resources and infrastructure Financial products Investments and working capital Social impact Societal value Inspired from: ESSEC Chaire entrepreneuriat socia Social enterprise
  5. 5. Corporate responsibility Strategy Business model Gouvernance Values ISO 26000 Principles of action Looking at the many faces of an organization Vision Relations Mission
  6. 6. In a systemic approach, the faces of the organization are a superposition of models ValuesValues Permanent model «mission» Relations model «management» Dynamic model «vision» Coherence axis «the values» And we can design them with canvas !
  7. 7. How do we link all that to the TOC ? Situation analysis
  8. 8. Claude Michaud Opportunity or situation analysis claude.michaud@socialbusinessmodels.ch Fribourg May 2014
  9. 9. Where? With whom? Why? Verifiable ? Who? With what? What? By what ? Our values But how to begin an opportunity analysis?
  10. 10. Where? So, lets start with the context !
  11. 11. Rich picture of the context The rules are very simple! Where?
  12. 12. PESTEL: in which context, which domain, who influences, with how much intensity?
  13. 13. Don’t forget: Your stakeholders also influences your organization! Public sector Politics Funders Suppliers Concurrents Society Customers Direct benefi- ciaries Medias Press Social networks Committee Members Volunteers Direction Staff Partners Prescribers Opinion makers Our values
  14. 14. Its your turn! • Group in pairs of organizations • Take 10 minutes to each design your rich picture and 5 minutes to check some relevant points in the PESTEL factors examples sheet • Twice 10 minutes to explain your results to the other organization • 10 minutes to debrief the difficulties
  15. 15. Why and for whom? Short term outputs Specific outcomes Global impacts • “In the customer shoes” • Problem tree • Goals/objectives tree Tools Society Directs & indirect customers Beneficiaries Consequences Causes Central problem Our values
  16. 16. Putting yourself in the "customer shoes“ to understand the problem! Thinks and feels Sees Speaks Listens Does Has needs BeingDoing
  17. 17. Why? – Problems tree Consequences Causes Central problem Our values
  18. 18. Why – problems tree • We start with a central problem • We go down listing the causes: – Asking why?… why?… why? (like a small child) • We go up, listing the consequences: – Telling so what?… so what?… and so what? (like a teenager) The shea butter production is low and the quality is poor Causes Consequences
  19. 19. Problems tree example: shea butter production The shea butter production is low and the quality is poor There are long translating by foot There are heat and high hazards (snake bites) The nuts transportation is heavy The operations are essentially manual The operations are done in a painful context There are bag hygiene procedures The packaging is improper The rural exodus is a fact The quality is low and inconstant The operations are slow The shea nuts picking is difficult Causes Central problem There are few local opportunities The selling price is low and fluctuates There are no international opportunities Consequences
  20. 20. Problems tree example: shea butter production Backfeed! (vicious circle)
  21. 21. Why and for whom? Society Directs & indirect customers Beneficiaries Our values
  22. 22. Who: what are the target audiences? Our values • Who are the direct beneficiaries? • Who are the indirect beneficiaries? • Who are the customers? • How many are they • What is the market size?
  23. 23. Why – transformation in objectives tree • We modify the problem tree transforming the negative sentences into positive sentences (objectives) • We go down, looking for drivers (for this to happen, we need…) • We go up doing the same (if we reach this situation, it’s possible that this happens…) The shea butter production increased and the quality is high Drivers Impacts
  24. 24. Objectives tree example: shea butter production The shea butter production is low and the quality is poor There are long translating by foot There are heat and high hazards (snake bites) The nuts transportation is heavy The operations are essentially manual The operations are done in a painful context There are bag hygiene procedures The packaging is improper The rural exodus is a fact The quality is low and inconstant The operations are slow The shea nuts picking is difficult There are few local opportunities The selling price is low and fluctuates There are no international opportunities Translations facilities exist It’s less dangerous (snakes bites) The nuts transportation is easy The operations are partially mechanized The operations are done in a better context The hygiene procedures are respected The packaging is adequate Big goal There are better living conditions The quality is good and standardized The operations are much more faster The shea nuts picking is easier Immediate results The shea butter production increased and the quality is high Short term outputs The local market is interested The selling price is correct and is stable Potential international opportunities exist Long term outcomes
  25. 25. Its your turn! • Group in pairs of organizations • Take around 15 + 10 minutes to each create the problem tree for which your organization exists and then transform it into an objectives tree • Twice 10 minutes to explain your results to the other organization • 10 minutes to debrief the difficulties
  26. 26. What’s next? – Intervention strategy
  27. 27. Break time !
  28. 28. The link between TOC and the objective tree
  29. 29. Context: Where is our organization is working? Issue: What is the key issue we are facing? Domain: In what sector/domain do we work? Big Goal Short term outputs Long-term outcomes What do we achieve in the short-term through the activities, products and services we produce? Outputs are largely within our organization’s control What are the long term outcomes, that will help us reach our big goal? These are indirectly caused by our work, not completely within our control. What do we want the world to look like? What is the key goal we are trying to achieve? Values and principles: What are the values and principles that will guide my activities? Situation analysis TheoryofChangeCore values
  30. 30. Verifiable – How to measure progress through KPI’s Our values Short term outputs Long term outcomes Big goal
  31. 31. Thanks for your attention www.socialbusinessmodels.ch www.dalberg.com
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