Transcript of "Built Environment Futures - Professor John Ratcliffe"
“BUILT ENVIRONMENT FUTURES” Sustainability, Responsibility and Leadership John S Ratcliffe Visiting Professor University of Salford Salford April 2011
Is this humanity’s last century – or a century that sets the world on a course towards a spectacular new future? A NEW MINDSET“The problems of the world cannot possibly be solved by sceptics or cynics whosehorizons are limited by the obvious realities. We need men who can dream of thingsthat never were.” (John F. Kennedy)
“FLIGHT FOR THE 21ST CENTURY: „ICARUS‟ OR „THE PHOENIX‟ ” A Confluence of Powerful Trends Problems Seem Intractable The Demographics of Discord The „New Players‟ Problems are Structural“The unusual and the unknown make us either over confident or overly fearful” (Gaius Julius Caesar)
“ICARUS” – PREVAILING PESSIMISM Population Growth Climate Change Food and Water Safety and Security Energy Deficit “If we dont change direction soon, well end up where were going.” (Irwin Corey)
“THE PHOENIX” – RATIONAL OPTIMISM Urban Prospect Developing Technology A New Economy The Natural Step New Nuclear “A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty” (Winston Churchill)
CREATING A NEW MINDSET Futures, Foresight and ScenariosPAST HISTORIC PRESENT INDICATIVE FUTURE IMPERFECT Strategic foresight is having a view of what can be done by organisations today to positively influence the future.
SYSTEMS THINKING AND FUTURES“The main difference that distinguishes the 21st century from thosethat preceded it is the need to create a mindset that can tackle theconscious design of large systems” “The empires of the future are the empires of the mind” (Winston Churchill)
CHANGING THE METAPHOR FOR ORGANISATIONS “From machines to complex adaptive systems” “It is not necessary to change. Survival is not mandatory.” (W. Edwards Deming)
„MECHANISTIC‟ Worldview (Occidental) Rationalism and empiricism Observations, measurement and logical analysis Residing within a lineal casual framework Machine, understood and measured by properties of parts Categories and hierarchies “In ecological terms it is anthropocentric within the human race seen as separate from and above nature …”
„Systematic‟ Worldview (Oriental) Holism and communalism Tools are intuition, participation & adaptability All residing within a cyclical causal framework World as an organisation, system with sub-systems Whole greater than sum of part “In an ecological terms it is eco-centric, with the human race as an inextricable part of the planetary system…”
FUNDAMENTAL SHIFTSDiscipline AdaptivenessPlanning DiscoveryHard Assets KnowledgeStructure ProcessControls ValuesInside-out Outside-inSize SpeedManagement Leadership“The things which are seen are temporal; but the things which are not seen areeternal.“ (II Corinthians 4.1:18)
FUTURES ORIENTED THINKING“In the context of creating a better built environment, the use of futuresmethods offers a rigorous, comprehensive and integrated approachtowards anticipating, planning and implementing sustainable urbandevelopment, relying, as it does, more on intuition, participation andadaptability than conventional strategic thinking and planning systems.” Emergence Frameworks Multiple So & Perspectives What? Structure “Cheer up – the worst is yet to come!”
WHY FORESIGHT? Running a 21st century organisation more complex Need to understand driving forces of change Trends matter – weak signals count Anticipation and exploration prerequisite Rehearsing alternative futures “Knowing others is wisdom, knowing yourself is Enlightenment.” (Lao Tzu)
WHAT IS FORESIGHT? Strategic foresight (SF) is having a view of what can be done by organisations today to positively influence the future. SF is the ability to create and maintain a high- quality, coherent and functional forward view, and to use the insights arising in organisationally useful ways. SF is about thinking, debating and shaping the future. “Being loved deeply by someone gives you strength, while loving someone deeply gives you courage.” (Lao Tzu)
FORESIGHT TEAMS CONTRIBUTION Anticipating emerging issues Identifying unintended consequences Getting a sense of the big picture Drawing on a wide range of information sources Involving all concerned “The words of truth are always paradoxical” (Lao Tzu)
THE STRATEGIC FORESIGHT PROCESS Framing the Strategic Question(s) Scanning the Horizon Forecasting Alternative Futures Visioning A Preferred Future Planning Strategic Options Acting on an Agreed Agenda “He who does not trust enough, will not be trusted.” (Lao Tzu)
PROSPECTIVE THROUGH SCENARIOS High to Low Importance Set the Strategic Question Strategic ConversationsDivergence Identify the Driving Forces of Causal Layered Change Horizon Scanning Analysis Determine the Main Issues and Delphi Survey Trends Cross-Impact Analysis Clarify the Level of Impact and Degree of Uncertainty Prospective Workshops Establish Scenario Logics ClusteringEmergence Polarising Create Different Scenarios Ranking Test Policy Options Morphological Analysis Identify Turning Points Creative WritingConvergence Produce Prospective Wind Tunnel Testing Move to Strategic Planning Gaming and Simulation “The future is that period of time in which our affairs prosper, our friends are true, and our happiness is assured” (Ambrose Bierce)
SCENARIO TYPOLOGY Evolutionary Catastrophic TransformationalConventional Worlds Barbarisation Great TransitionsMarket Policy Breakdown Fortress Eco - NewForces Reform World Communalism Sustainability Paradigm Muddling Through “Show me someone who doesnt dream about the future and Ill show you someone who doesnt know where they are going”
SCENARIO LOGICS (TWICE THE SIZE) “When there is a great cry that something should be done, you can depend on it that something remarkably silly will be done”
GLOBAL OUTCOMES Global Outcomes Outsights“Imagination is more important than knowledge. For knowledge is limited to all wenow know and understand, while imagination embraces the entire world, and allthere ever will be to know and understand.” (Albert Einstein)
WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS? “Can we go on like this?” Meta-forces Macro-forces Micro-forces“Reason is, and ought only to be the slave of the passions and can never pretendto any other office than to serve and obey them” (David Hume, 1783)
THREE META-FORCES VALUES VISIONS VECTORS“Unless the investment in children is made, all of humanitys most fundamentallong-term problems will remain fundamental long-term problems.” (UNICEF)
However, the history of modern societies suggest also something for our future…. Source: Datastream; Illustration: Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis Figure 1: Kondratieff cycles – long waves of prosperity. Rolling 10-year yield on the S&P 500 since 1814 till March 2009 (in %, p. a.)
VALUES The Transformation Towards A Sustainable Responsible Civilization“All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.” (Edmund Burke)
Ecological footprintImproving people‟s health andwell-being while respecting the DOWNlimits of natural resources UPHuman DevelopmentIndex* Health & Well-being *HDI = life expectancy + education level + purchasing powerSource: WWF Living Planet Report 2006 "Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development."
THE GREAT GLOBAL VALUES DEBATE Millennium Development Goals Cultures Consequences Spiral Dynamics World Values Survey Interfaith Dialogue “Believe those who are seeking the truth; doubt those who find it” (André Gide )
CULTURAL VALUES MAP“What we call basic truths are simply the ones we discover after all the others” (Albert Camus)
CHANGING ATTITUDES TOWARDS TIME “What we observe is not nature itself, but nature exposed to our method of questioning.” (Werner Heisenberg)
VISIONS “Twenty-first Century Enlightenment” Self-Aware Autonomy Empathetic Universalism Progress and Ethics The Social Aspiration Gap Signposts to 21st C. Enlightenment “Government is a badge of lost innocence… For were the impulses of conscience clear, uniform and irresistibly obeyed, man would need no other lawgiver” (Thomas Paine)
To a sustainable world in 2050 From business-as-usual
To a sustainable world in 2050 2050 From business-as-usual
To a sustainable world in 2050 TODAY From business-as-usual
VECTORS “An agent that acts as a carrier or transporter” Globalisation Urbanisation Environmentalism Internet Social Media Faith – Based Movements Terrorism Pandemics “The Internet is becoming the town square for the global village of tomorrow.” (Bill Gates )
GLOBAL RISKS LANDSCAPE 2011“If economists could manage to get themselves thought of as humble, competentpeople on a level with dentists, that would be splendid‟” (John Maynard Keynes)
RISKS INTERCONNECTION MAP 2011 “Fundamentalism is a specter stalking the globe, but Islam is not its synonym” (Rana Kabbani)
RISKS IN FOCUSCross-cutting global risks: Economic disparity and global governance failures “These things will destroy the human race: politics without principle, progress without compassion, wealth without work, learning without silence, religion without fearlessness and worship without awareness.” (Anthony de Mello)
MACRO-FORCES THE FIVE CRUCIBLES OF CHANGE1. The Great Rebalancing2. Global Connectivity3. Planetary Stewardship4. The Productivity Imperative5. The Market State “They must often change who would be constant in happiness or wisdom.” (Confucius)
1. THE GREAT REBALANCING The „depletion‟ of the West The power of „Sovereign Wealth‟ A multi –polar world Vibrancy of emerging markets Managing multiple business models “Let a hundred flowers blossom, let a hundred schools of thought contend.” (Mao Tse-Tung)
2. GLOBAL CONNECTIVITY Every company a global company Your customer is „Tweeting‟ Imagine the power of 4 billion minds Everything – not just everyone – is connected Expect a bumpy ride “All human beings are interconnected, one with all other elements in creation.” (Henry Reed)
3. PLANETARY STEWARDSHIP Interplay of 3 powerful forces - growing demand - constrained supply - increased regulation Commodity prices will rise – and fall! Planning for different outcomes Resource productivity ˃ labour productivity Prepare for regulatory change “We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.” (Native American Proverb)
4. THE PRODUCTIVITY IMPERATIVE Emerging Markets vs. Developed Nations “Do it smarter” Rewards Maximise Returns from „Thinkers‟ Reinvention of „Work‟ Turning Free Goods into Gold “Anyone who believes that exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist” (Kenneth Boulding)
Give the people control and we will use itYour worst customer is your best friendDo what you do best – and link to the restJoin a network. Be a platform. Think distributedIf you‟re not searchable you won‟t be foundLife is public – so is businessYour customers are your ad agencySmall is the new big. The mass market is deadMiddlemen are doomed. Free is a business modelThere is an inverse relationship between control and trustTrust the people. Listen. Be honest. Be transparentCollaborate. Life is live. Answers are instantaneousEncourage, enable and protect innovation.Simplify, Simplify DON‟T BE EVIL!
5. THE MARKET STATE Larger role for the state – not smaller - Mitigate negative impacts of globalisation - Regulation of financial architecture - Multi- lateral consensus required Public Private Partnership – Beyond Procurement Selecting the Right Partners Companies Working Across Boundaries Vested Interests – Mutual Recognition “For each of our actions there are only consequences.” (James Lovelock)
MICRO-FORCES (EMPIRICAL) TEN CORPORATE IMPERATIVES1. Thinking creatively, strategically and systematically2. Increasing „interdisciplinarity‟ and „intergenerationality‟3. Fostering trust, responsibility and reputation4. Exploring convergent technologies and divergent ideas5. Mainstreaming the „Green Revolution‟6. Deconstructing demographic destines7. Managing knowledge and leading talent8. Moving from an energy economy to an information economy9. Engaging communities and behaving civically10. Promoting authentic leadership in a futures orientated organisation “Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good for everyone” (John Maynard Keynes)
TEN TOP BUSINESS ATTRIBUTES1. Trustworthiness2. Brand Integrity3. Social Responsibility4. Diversity5. Foresight6. Vision7. Bravery8. Agility9. Adaptability10. Informed Intuition “Know yourself – be yourself – show yourself” (John Ratcliffe)
ELEVEN EU CITIES CHALLENGES1. How to counter social/spatial segregation/polarisation? How to ensure social and functional mixity?2. How to foster social inclusion and economic integration of disadvantaged groups, especially migrants?3. How to ensure economic transitions? (entrepreneurial environment; local & social economy; knowledge/green economy; a viable manufacturing sector)?4. How to manage and adapt to demographic changes (e.g. ageing/age imbalances; shrinking/ growing; in/out migration)?5. How to maintain and attract a broad range of skills/competencies? How to stimulate job creation and availability?
ELEVEN EU CITIES CHALLENGES6. How to achieve a sustainable mobility (pedestrian, bike, clean urban transport, car, new transport modes, accessibility)?7. How to achieve greater energy efficiency and manage the transition towards a carbon-neutral city?8. How to manage natural resources (water, waste, air, soil and land)?9. How to ensure territorial cohesion and coherence? How to manage relationships between cities and their surroundings (hinterland; urban/peri-urban; metropolises)?10. How to foster cities attractiveness (e.g., education, culture, sports, creativity and cultural/industrial heritage; safety and security; public spaces and public services)11. How to ensure financial sustainability?
TEN TRAVEL AND TOURISM CHALLENGES1. Taking Responsibility2. Evolving Destinations3. Promoting Slow and Geo-Tourism4. Travelling With a Purpose5. Going Overland6. Catering for the Burgeoning Middle-Classes7. Satisfying the “Digital Natives”8. Tackling the Technological Transformations9. Attending the Lure of Eastern Promise10. Ensuring Safety, Security and Sustainability
BUILT ENVIRONMENT FORESIGHT 2030 PROPOSITUM: FIVE BIG QUESTIONS How Will We Think? Will We Behave Differently? What About Real Estate? Who Will Be Involved? What Really Lies Ahead? “Imagination is more important than knowledge. For knowledge is limited to all we now know and understand, while imagination embraces the entire world, and all there ever will be to know and understand.” (Albert Einstein)
PROPOSITUM: FIVE BIG QUESTIONS How Will We Think? Strategically Systematically Creatively Reflectively Intergenerationally“Science investigates religion interprets. Science gives man knowledge which ispower religion gives man wisdom which is control.” (Martin Luther King, Jr.)
PROPOSITUM: FIVE BIG QUESTIONS Will We Behave Differently? With Values With Responsibility With Cross-Disciplinarity With Discretion With Foresight“These things will destroy the human race: politics without principle, progress without compassion, wealthwithout work, learning without silence, religion without fearlessness and worship without awareness.”(Anthony de Mello)
PROPOSITUM: FIVE BIG QUESTIONS What About Real Estate? Qualitative not Quantitative Infrastructure and Civics A Service Industry A Two-Tier Sustainable Market Location and Mobility“Just because everything is different doesnt mean anything has changed.”(Irene Peter)
PROPOSITUM: FIVE BIG QUESTIONS Who Will Be Involved? The Professions Public Private Partnerships Regulators Communities Leaders“The problems of the world cannot possibly be solved by sceptics or cynics whose horizons are limited bythe obvious realities. We need men who can dream of things that never were.” (John F. Kennedy)
PROPOSITUM: FIVE BIG QUESTIONS What Really Lies Ahead? Managing the Energy Deficit Defusing the Demographic Time-Bomb Exploiting Converging Technologies Mainstreaming Green Development Profiting from a Responsible and Sustainable Future“We have it in our power to begin the world over again” (Thomas Paine)
TEN REAL ESTATE CHALLENGES1. Capturing the Infrastructure Opportunity2. Participating in Public Private Partnership3. Changing Locations4. Appreciating Market Divergence5. Exploring Second and Third Tier Cities6. Switching to Service and Function7. Boom in Health, Education & Leisure8. Embrace New Building Technology9. Emerging Markets May Be The Next Bubble10. Energy is the Key – Risk Management the Imperative “Imagine if capitalism collapsed as it did not allow prices to tell the ecological truth; just as socialism collapsed because it did not allow prices to tell the economic truth” (John Ratcliffe, 2008)
Built Environment Harmony Enlightened Leadership Strategic Foresight“Knowing others is intelligence; knowing yourself is true wisdom. Mastering others is strength;mastering yourself is true power. If you realize that you have enough, you are truly rich.” (Tao Te Ching)
NEW LEADERSHIP?“Leadership is the capacity to translate vision into reality.” (Warren G Bennis)
SOME THOUGHTS ON LEADERSHIP Create a democracy of ideas Amplify the organisations imagination Dynamically reallocate resources Aggregate collective wisdom Minimise the drag of old mental models Give everyone the chance to take part “Governing a large country is like frying a small fish. You spoil it with too much poking.” (Tao Te Ching)
“The wicked leader is he who the peopledespise. The good leader is he who thepeople revere. The great leader is he whothe people say, „We did it ourselves.‟” ( Lao Tzu )
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