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“ A message of hope for those who choose to hear it, and warning to those who do not” ~ Lyrics from Rosetta Stoned by Tool
Books are Precious <ul><li>Long form content essential for </li></ul><ul><ul><li>deep dive knowledge immersion </li></ul><...
BOOKS ARE ENDANGERED
WE MUST SAVE BOOKS
WE ARE CAUGHT IN THE TURBULENT CROSS CURRENTS OF MULTIPLE FORCES
TECHNOLOGY IS COLLIDING WITH PUBLISHING
Technology Represents the Means by Which Consumer Desires are Realized  Things Touched by Technology Transformed to Someth...
Books are in Jeopardy <ul><li>In a world of faster, smaller, cheaper, print books have lost ground </li></ul><ul><ul><li>E...
BIG PUBLISHERS ARE MAKING THE PROBLEM WORSE
They judge books on commercial merit
UNTIL RECENTLY, BIG PUBLISHERS HAD A MONOPOLY.  THEY CONTROLLED THE PRINTING PRESS AND DISTRIBUTION TO BOOKSTORES
IT WAS A SWEET RACKET FOR PUBLISHERS Readers wanted books Publishers controlled the supply $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
Publishers were the deciders <ul><li>Publishers controlled: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Who got published </li></ul></ul><ul><ul...
Publishers were the bouncers at the pearly gates <ul><li>Authors bowed subservient before the publishing gods, seeking </l...
Publishers controlled Heaven <ul><li>Highway to Heaven </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The book deal </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The ...
“ The world is full of kings and queens who blind your eyes and steal your dreams” ~ Lyrics from Heaven and Hell by Black ...
BUT THEN THE INTERNET HAPPENED
…  THE RULES CHANGED FOREVER
Is the age of Big Publishing over? <ul><li>More difficult than ever to get an agent or book deal </li></ul><ul><li>Advance...
ooh, pretty! Publishers Ill-Equiped for the New Realities
Publishers are too slow <ul><li>12-18 month release cycles </li></ul>
… their expenses are too high
… they’re exposed to too much risk <ul><ul><li>Pay author advances </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Can’t predict demand </l...
Publishers mitigate risk by giving  bean counters increased influence
…  bean counters make poor decisions in the name of risk mitigation <ul><ul><li>Adopt author-unfriendly policies </li></ul...
Against this backdrop, the world of publishing is changing
FIVE TRENDS TO ROCK OUR WORLD
TREND ONE: Reading Moving to Screens
Reading moving to screens
Ebooks to overtake print Print books Ebooks Today?
Ebooks as a percentage of US wholesale trade market Source: Association of American Publishers, publishers.org
Ebooks replacing print faster than most realize <ul><li>On September 2, 2011, Random House announced ebooks accounted for ...
Why ebooks are hot <ul><li>Screens offer better reading experience than paper </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Changeable font size  ...
TREND TWO   Bookselling moving to the Web
Bookselling moves to the Web <ul><li>Customer drivers: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Price </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Convenience ...
Percentage of book purchases made online vs B&M, P- and E- Brick & Mortar Web Today?
TREND THREE The Rise of Self-Publishing  (a.k.a indie publishing)
Publishing and Distribution Tools Available to all <ul><li>Free and low cost publishing tools empower every author to beco...
The Smashwords Example 140 6,000 28,500 73,000+ (9/17/11)
Number of books published indie vs. traditional Indie  books Today? New trad.  books
Indies Can Out-Publish Big Publishers <ul><li>Asymmetric competition </li></ul><ul><ul><li>field tilted in indie’s favor <...
Indie ebook economics favor indies <ul><li>Higher profits than traditional </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Earn 60-100% list price f...
TREND FOUR Content Explosion
Content explosion <ul><li>Unlimited Internet content alternatives </li></ul><ul><li>Indie ebooks </li></ul><ul><li>Zombie ...
Content explosion Indie  books Online  alt  content Today? Zombie books New trad.  books
TREND FIVE Ebook Prices to Decline
Ebook Prices to Decline Today?
... driven by supply and demand <ul><li>Explosion of content </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Excess supply leads to price competitio...
The Plan Forward
TO SAVE BOOKS, WE MUST  CHANGE BOOKS  AND  CHANGE PUBLISHING
How to Save Books <ul><li>To save books, we must harness technology to make books: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Smaller, faster, ...
The Better Book is Here <ul><li>It’s called an  ebook </li></ul><ul><li>Same book, only better </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Small...
The Five Trends Create a Future Where Indies Can Out-Compete Big Publishers
You are the future of publishing
You are your own gatekeeper
YOU  decide when you graduate from writer to PUBLISHED AUTHOR
Readers want great books
Give them great books
The Opportunity to Reach Readers Has Never Been Greater
Think Globally
In a Couple Years, the Market for Your Books Outside the US will Dwarf the US Market Already, ~50% of Smashwords Apple iBo...
You Have the Tools to Reach a Worldwide Market Today
Final Thoughts <ul><li>Change brings opportunity </li></ul><ul><li>Power of publishing is shifting to authors </li></ul><u...
Thank you for listening! Q&A Connect with Mark Coker: Web:  www.smashwords.com Blog:  blog.smashwords.com HuffPo:  huffing...
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Five Big Trends that Will Rock the Future of Publishing

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This presentation examines five big trends impacting the future of book publishing. It explores how technology is disrupting the book publishing industry, how Big Publishers are threatening the future of books, and how indie authors + ebooks have the power to expand book consumption and promote cross-cultural understanding for the good of all humanity. Keynote address presented by Mark Coker of Smashwords at the 27th Annual Central Coast Writers' Conference held in Morro Bay, CA. Presented September 17, 2011

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  • This slide show verifies the truth about the real solid printed copy of your favorite book becoming the dinosaur of the 21st century. Everyone is looking for the quickest, efficient and lighter way to deal with life's basics and luxuries. Thus technology is progressing and creating the ebook market and developing the ereaders devices so society can enjoy their books on the ran and daily responsibilities. The self-publishing market is the new trend and offers more freedom for writers to express their creativity. It is time to jump on the bandwagon and come into the 21st century and keep reading alive and share with the next generation, and not be left in the dark. You can upload to your computer, laptop and Goggle e reader's devices, nooks, kindle, etc. and continue to escape into your favorite gender.
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Transcript of "Five Big Trends that Will Rock the Future of Publishing"

  1. 2. “ A message of hope for those who choose to hear it, and warning to those who do not” ~ Lyrics from Rosetta Stoned by Tool
  2. 3. Books are Precious <ul><li>Long form content essential for </li></ul><ul><ul><li>deep dive knowledge immersion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>entertainment </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Books are vessels for cultural preservation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Noah’s ark </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Promotes cross-cultural understanding </li></ul></ul>
  3. 4. BOOKS ARE ENDANGERED
  4. 5. WE MUST SAVE BOOKS
  5. 6. WE ARE CAUGHT IN THE TURBULENT CROSS CURRENTS OF MULTIPLE FORCES
  6. 7. TECHNOLOGY IS COLLIDING WITH PUBLISHING
  7. 8. Technology Represents the Means by Which Consumer Desires are Realized Things Touched by Technology Transformed to Something Faster, Smaller, Cheaper
  8. 9. Books are in Jeopardy <ul><li>In a world of faster, smaller, cheaper, print books have lost ground </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Expensive </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Unaffordable to vast majority of world’s literate population </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Unavailable, inaccessible to global market </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Archaic rights practices limit distribution </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Geographic limitations of print distribution </li></ul></ul></ul>
  9. 10. BIG PUBLISHERS ARE MAKING THE PROBLEM WORSE
  10. 11. They judge books on commercial merit
  11. 12. UNTIL RECENTLY, BIG PUBLISHERS HAD A MONOPOLY. THEY CONTROLLED THE PRINTING PRESS AND DISTRIBUTION TO BOOKSTORES
  12. 13. IT WAS A SWEET RACKET FOR PUBLISHERS Readers wanted books Publishers controlled the supply $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
  13. 14. Publishers were the deciders <ul><li>Publishers controlled: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Who got published </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Who got distributed </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What readers could read </li></ul></ul>
  14. 15. Publishers were the bouncers at the pearly gates <ul><li>Authors bowed subservient before the publishing gods, seeking </li></ul><ul><ul><li>blessing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>acceptance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>validation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>entry into the afterlife </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“published author” on the tomb stone </li></ul></ul>
  15. 16. Publishers controlled Heaven <ul><li>Highway to Heaven </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The book deal </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The printing press </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The distribution </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The royalties </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The respect </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The readers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The fame </li></ul></ul>
  16. 17. “ The world is full of kings and queens who blind your eyes and steal your dreams” ~ Lyrics from Heaven and Hell by Black Sabbath
  17. 18. BUT THEN THE INTERNET HAPPENED
  18. 19. … THE RULES CHANGED FOREVER
  19. 20. Is the age of Big Publishing over? <ul><li>More difficult than ever to get an agent or book deal </li></ul><ul><li>Advances declining </li></ul><ul><li>Publishers want established platform </li></ul><ul><li>Lose rights </li></ul><ul><li>Most authors don’t earn out </li></ul><ul><li>Authors expected to do most marketing </li></ul>
  20. 21. ooh, pretty! Publishers Ill-Equiped for the New Realities
  21. 22. Publishers are too slow <ul><li>12-18 month release cycles </li></ul>
  22. 23. … their expenses are too high
  23. 24. … they’re exposed to too much risk <ul><ul><li>Pay author advances </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Can’t predict demand </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>many books fail and don’t earn out </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Broken supply chain </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>30%+ of printed books returned to publisher unsold </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Amazon is eating publishers for lunch </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Vertically integrated from authors to readers </li></ul></ul></ul>
  24. 25. Publishers mitigate risk by giving bean counters increased influence
  25. 26. … bean counters make poor decisions in the name of risk mitigation <ul><ul><li>Adopt author-unfriendly policies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Acquire fewer books from unproven authors </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Pay lower advances </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Require authors to assume more editing, marketing responsibility </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Adopt customer-unfriendly policies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Favor “commercial” & celebrity books </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Scarcity tactics to maintain higher prices </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Limit worldwide distribution </li></ul></ul></ul>
  26. 27. Against this backdrop, the world of publishing is changing
  27. 28. FIVE TRENDS TO ROCK OUR WORLD
  28. 29. TREND ONE: Reading Moving to Screens
  29. 30. Reading moving to screens
  30. 31. Ebooks to overtake print Print books Ebooks Today?
  31. 32. Ebooks as a percentage of US wholesale trade market Source: Association of American Publishers, publishers.org
  32. 33. Ebooks replacing print faster than most realize <ul><li>On September 2, 2011, Random House announced ebooks accounted for 20% of first half 2011 revenues </li></ul><ul><li>Jan-May 2011 vs Jan-May 2010 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>E-Books increased by 160% while adult massmarket dropped 30% and adult hardcover dropped 23%, (Source: AAP press release, July 21, 2011) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Amazon announced May 19 they sell 105 Kindle books for every 100 print books </li></ul><ul><li>Indie ebook unit market share even higher </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Some best-selling indies selling 1,000 e- for every p- </li></ul></ul>
  33. 34. Why ebooks are hot <ul><li>Screens offer better reading experience than paper </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Changeable font size A A A A </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Portable and compact </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Screens will get better/faster/cheaper </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Ebooks offer better purchasing experience </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lower cost than print </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Convenient sampling and purchasing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Huge selection </li></ul></ul>
  34. 35. TREND TWO Bookselling moving to the Web
  35. 36. Bookselling moves to the Web <ul><li>Customer drivers: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Price </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Convenience </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Selection </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Self-published books displayed side by side with traditional books </li></ul><ul><li>Big publishers lose primacy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>If brick & mortar disappears, publishers lose key value proposition: exclusive access to distribution and readers </li></ul></ul>
  36. 37. Percentage of book purchases made online vs B&M, P- and E- Brick & Mortar Web Today?
  37. 38. TREND THREE The Rise of Self-Publishing (a.k.a indie publishing)
  38. 39. Publishing and Distribution Tools Available to all <ul><li>Free and low cost publishing tools empower every author to become their own publisher </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Free printing press in the sky </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Distribution to all major online bookstores </li></ul></ul>
  39. 40. The Smashwords Example 140 6,000 28,500 73,000+ (9/17/11)
  40. 41. Number of books published indie vs. traditional Indie books Today? New trad. books
  41. 42. Indies Can Out-Publish Big Publishers <ul><li>Asymmetric competition </li></ul><ul><ul><li>field tilted in indie’s favor </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Smaller indie authors/publishers </li></ul><ul><ul><li>democratized distribution </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>instant access to global market </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>lower expenses </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>closer to customers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>never go out of print </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>earn more per book </li></ul></ul>
  42. 43. Indie ebook economics favor indies <ul><li>Higher profits than traditional </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Earn 60-100% list price for indie ebooks vs. 5-17% from traditional publishiers </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Price ebooks for less yet still make more per copy than traditionally pubbed print authors </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>$8 mass market paperback earns author <$.40 trad MMP </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>$.99 indie ebook earns $.60 - $.70 </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Lower price = reach more readers = more sales at higher profits per sale </li></ul></ul></ul>MMP=Mass market paperback, aka “pocket book” in some countries
  43. 44. TREND FOUR Content Explosion
  44. 45. Content explosion <ul><li>Unlimited Internet content alternatives </li></ul><ul><li>Indie ebooks </li></ul><ul><li>Zombie books </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Used books </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>OOP resurrected via ebooks and P.O.D </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Out of copyright public domain ebooks </li></ul></ul>
  45. 46. Content explosion Indie books Online alt content Today? Zombie books New trad. books
  46. 47. TREND FIVE Ebook Prices to Decline
  47. 48. Ebook Prices to Decline Today?
  48. 49. ... driven by supply and demand <ul><li>Explosion of content </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Excess supply leads to price competition </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Yet, readers will still pay for content </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Your book is unique, a one of a kind </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Lower prices make books affordable and accessible to broader market </li></ul><ul><ul><li>More books will be sold than ever before </li></ul></ul>
  49. 50. The Plan Forward
  50. 51. TO SAVE BOOKS, WE MUST CHANGE BOOKS AND CHANGE PUBLISHING
  51. 52. How to Save Books <ul><li>To save books, we must harness technology to make books: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Smaller, faster, cheaper </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More available </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More discoverable </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More accessible </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More compelling than alternative content options </li></ul></ul>
  52. 53. The Better Book is Here <ul><li>It’s called an ebook </li></ul><ul><li>Same book, only better </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Smaller, faster, cheaper </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More available </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More discoverable </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More accessible </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More functional </li></ul></ul>
  53. 54. The Five Trends Create a Future Where Indies Can Out-Compete Big Publishers
  54. 55. You are the future of publishing
  55. 56. You are your own gatekeeper
  56. 57. YOU decide when you graduate from writer to PUBLISHED AUTHOR
  57. 58. Readers want great books
  58. 59. Give them great books
  59. 60. The Opportunity to Reach Readers Has Never Been Greater
  60. 61. Think Globally
  61. 62. In a Couple Years, the Market for Your Books Outside the US will Dwarf the US Market Already, ~50% of Smashwords Apple iBookstore Sales are Outside the US
  62. 63. You Have the Tools to Reach a Worldwide Market Today
  63. 64. Final Thoughts <ul><li>Change brings opportunity </li></ul><ul><li>Power of publishing is shifting to authors </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Readers determine your success </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Indie vs. Traditional is not an either/or question. Many authors straddle both. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Opportunity to reach readers has never been greater </li></ul><ul><li>You represent the future of publishing </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Go make us all proud </li></ul></ul>
  64. 65. Thank you for listening! Q&A Connect with Mark Coker: Web: www.smashwords.com Blog: blog.smashwords.com HuffPo: huffingtonpost.com/mark-coker Twitter: @ markcoker
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