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Luca Brocca seminario trento

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Soil moisture detection with remote sensing for hydrological purposes. Hydrology.

Soil moisture detection with remote sensing for hydrological purposes. Hydrology.

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  • 1. luca.brocca@irpi.cnr.it http://hydrology.irpi.cnr.it Luca Brocca and many others  Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, National Research Council, Perugia, Italy Floods Landslides Rainfall In situ validation USE OF SATELLITE SOIL MOISTURE DATA FOR HYDROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS Monday, September 23, 13
  • 2. 25  September  2013 Trento Importance of soil moisture Campo et al. (2006, HYP) Casentino basin central Italy 30% increase of soil moisture produces a 8-fold increase of peak discharge! Monday, September 23, 13
  • 3. 25  September  2013 Trento Importance of soil moisture Campo et al. (2006, HYP) Casentino basin central Italy 30% increase of soil moisture produces a 8-fold increase of peak discharge! Monday, September 23, 13
  • 4. 25  September  2013 Trento Importance of soil moisture Campo et al. (2006, HYP) Casentino basin central Italy 30% increase of soil moisture produces a 8-fold increase of peak discharge! Runoff generation Brocca et al. (2010, HESS) Landslide triggering Brocca et al. (2012, RS) Numerical Weather Prediction Dharssi et al. (2011, HESS) Erosion modelling Nearing et al. (2005, CAT) Plant production Bolten et al. (2010, JSTARS) Water quality modelling Han et al. (2012, HYP) Monday, September 23, 13
  • 5. 25  September  2013 Trento Soil moisture is needed by all GEO Social Benefit Areas and was ranked the second top priority parameter (behind precipitation) in a year 2010 GEO report on "Critical Earth Observation Priorities". http://sbageotask.larc.nasa.gov/ US-09-01a_SummaryBrochure.pdf Need for soil moisture Monday, September 23, 13
  • 6. 25  September  2013 Trento Soil moisture monitoring Monday, September 23, 13
  • 7. 25  September  2013 Trento IN SITU (TDR, FDR, Gravimetric, Geophysical methods) REMOTE SENSING (AMSR-E, SAR, Scatterometer, ASCAT, SMOS, SMAP...) HYDROLOGICAL MODELLING Soil moisture monitoring Monday, September 23, 13
  • 8. 25  September  2013 Trento Experimental Catchment Soil moisture monitoring Monday, September 23, 13
  • 9. 25  September  2013 Trento LaboratoryExperimental Catchment TDR and FDR continuous monitoring probes TDR spot measurements Soil moisture monitoring Monday, September 23, 13
  • 10. 25  September  2013 Trento Soil moisture monitoring Monday, September 23, 13
  • 11. 25  September  2013 Trento Soil moisture monitoring International Soil Moisture Network http://www.ipf.tuwien.ac.at/insitu/ Monday, September 23, 13
  • 12. 25  September  2013 Trento Coarse-resolution soil moisture product Monday, September 23, 13
  • 13. 25  September  2013 Trento Typical catchment size for hydrological studies. Coarse-resolution soil moisture product Monday, September 23, 13
  • 14. 25  September  2013 Trento ~25 kmsatellite pixels Typical catchment size for hydrological studies. HYDROLOGIST too coarse for hydrological applications ! Coarse-resolution soil moisture product Monday, September 23, 13
  • 15. 25  September  2013 Trento PLOT SCALE 400-9000 m2 CENTRALITALY Brocca et al., 2009 (GEOD) Soil moisture temporal stability Monday, September 23, 13
  • 16. 25  September  2013 Trento PLOT SCALE 400-9000 m2 CENTRALITALY Brocca et al., 2009 (GEOD) SMALL CATCHMENT SCALE ~50 km2 Brocca et al., 2010 (WRR) CATCHMENT SCALE ~250 km2 Brocca et al., 2012 (JoH) Soil moisture temporal stability Monday, September 23, 13
  • 17. 25  September  2013 Trento PLOT SCALE 400-9000 m2 CENTRALITALY Brocca et al., 2009 (GEOD) SMALL CATCHMENT SCALE ~50 km2 Brocca et al., 2010 (WRR) CATCHMENT SCALE ~250 km2 Brocca et al., 2012 (JoH) USA Cosh et al., 2006 (JoH) AFRICA de Rosnay et al., 2009 (JoH) ASIA Zhao et al., 2010 (HYP) Soil moisture temporal stability Monday, September 23, 13
  • 18. 25  September  2013 Trento 1990 2000 20101980 Remote sensing of soil moisture Monday, September 23, 13
  • 19. 25  September  2013 Trento 1990 2000 20101980 SSM/I Nimbus-7 Aqua AMSR-E TMI TRMM Coriolis Windsat METOP-A ASCAT SCAT ERS-1&2 SMOS SMAP SMMR DMSP; F8-F16 AMSU Remote sensing of soil moisture Monday, September 23, 13
  • 20. 25  September  2013 Trento PURPOSE VALIDATION OF SATELLITE SOIL MOISTURE PRODUCTS WITH IN SITU OBSERVATIONS ACROSS EUROPE USE OF SATELLITE SOIL MOISTURE PRODUCT FOR: 1. RAINFALL ESTIMATION 2. FLOOD PREDICTION AND FORECASTING 3. LANDSLIDE MOVEMENT PREDICTION Monday, September 23, 13
  • 21. 25  September  2013 Trento Validation of remote sensing soil moisture products Monday, September 23, 13
  • 22. 25  September  2013 Trento Wagner et al., 1999 (RSE) Satellite soil moisture product • scatterometer (active microwave) • C-band (5.7 GHz) • VV polarization • resolution 50/25 km • daily coverage • 2007 - ongoing ASCAT 2007- … Change detection algorithm takes account indirectly for surface roughness and land cover variability. Monday, September 23, 13
  • 23. 25  September  2013 Trento Owe et al., 2008 (JGR) AMSR-E 2002-2011 LPRM algorithm three-parameter retrieval model (soil moisture, vegetation water content, and soil/canopy temperature) for passive microwave data based on a • radiometer (passive microwave) • 6.9 - 10.7 - 18.7 - 36.5 GHz • HH and VV polarization • 74x43 km (6.9 GHz), 14x8 (36.5 GHz), resampled at ~25 km • daily coverage • 2002 - 2011 Satellite soil moisture product Monday, September 23, 13
  • 24. 25  September  2013 Trento “Consistent validation of H-SAF soil moisture satellite and model products against ground measurements for selected sites in Europe” http://hsaf.meteoam.it/ In situ soil moisture network Monday, September 23, 13
  • 25. 25  September  2013 Trento In-situ soil moisture data at different depths (5, 10, 15, 30, ...) for a total of 17 sites across four different countries (Italy, France, Spain and Luxembourg). Considering both observed and modelled data: 29 DATA SETS In situ soil moisture network Monday, September 23, 13
  • 26. 25  September  2013 Trento Italy Vallaccia 5 cm ASCAT In situ validation Monday, September 23, 13
  • 27. 25  September  2013 Trento Italy Vallaccia 5 cm AMSRE-LPRMAMSRE-NASA AMSRE-PRIASCAT In situ validation Monday, September 23, 13
  • 28. 25  September  2013 Trento Italy Vallaccia 5 cm AMSRE-LPRMAMSRE-NASA AMSRE-PRIASCAT Regression matching CDF matching In situ validation Monday, September 23, 13
  • 29. 25  September  2013 Trento Correlation coefficient between all satellite products and ground data sets Brocca et al., 2011 (RSE) In situ validation Monday, September 23, 13
  • 30. 25  September  2013 Trento Correlation coefficient between all satellite products and ground data sets Brocca et al., 2011 (RSE) Average R-values ~0.80 In situ validation Monday, September 23, 13
  • 31. 25  September  2013 Trento In situ validation (mountain regions) Brocca et al., 2013 (VZJ) ITALIAN ALPS Monday, September 23, 13
  • 32. 25  September  2013 Trento In situ validation (Africa) MOROCCO Tramblay et al., 2012 (HESS) Monday, September 23, 13
  • 33. 25  September  2013 Trento In situ validation (USA) … and in very interesting places !!! HAWAII Monday, September 23, 13
  • 34. 25  September  2013 Trento SM2RAIN Monday, September 23, 13
  • 35. 25  September  2013 Trento R-metric Monday, September 23, 13
  • 36. 25  September  2013 Trento RAINFALL Doing Hydrology Backward Brocca et al., 2013 (GRL) Monday, September 23, 13
  • 37. 25  September  2013 Trento RAINFALL SOIL MOISTURE Infiltration evapotranspiration Doing Hydrology Backward Brocca et al., 2013 (GRL) Monday, September 23, 13
  • 38. 25  September  2013 Trento RAINFALL SOIL MOISTURE Infiltration evapotranspiration Doing Hydrology Backward Brocca et al., 2013 (GRL) Monday, September 23, 13
  • 39. 25  September  2013 Trento RAINFALL SOIL MOISTURE Infiltration evapotranspiration Doing Hydrology Backward Brocca et al., 2013 (GRL) Monday, September 23, 13
  • 40. 25  September  2013 Trento Soil water balance equation precipitation runoff Evapo- transpiration drainage soil depth relative saturation SM2RAIN Monday, September 23, 13
  • 41. 25  September  2013 Trento Soil water balance equation precipitation runoff Evapo- transpiration drainage soil depth relative saturation Inverting for p(t): SM2RAIN Monday, September 23, 13
  • 42. 25  September  2013 Trento Soil water balance equation precipitation runoff Evapo- transpiration drainage soil depth relative saturation Assuming: + + Inverting for p(t): SM2RAIN Monday, September 23, 13
  • 43. 25  September  2013 Trento Soil water balance equation precipitation runoff Evapo- transpiration drainage soil depth relative saturation Assuming: + + Inverting for p(t): SM2RAIN Monday, September 23, 13
  • 44. 25  September  2013 Trento Three sites in Italy, Spain and France with hourly rainfall and soil moisture observations are selected SM2RAIN testing: in-situ data Monday, September 23, 13
  • 45. 25  September  2013 Trento Three sites in Italy, Spain and France with hourly rainfall and soil moisture observations are selected Estimation of daily rainfall for 1-year data SM2RAIN testing: in-situ data Monday, September 23, 13
  • 46. 25  September  2013 Trento Three sites in Italy, Spain and France with hourly rainfall and soil moisture observations are selected Estimation of daily rainfall for 1-year data Italy Spain France NS=0.82 NS=0.89 NS=0.81 SM2RAIN testing: in-situ data Monday, September 23, 13
  • 47. 25  September  2013 Trento Results – ASCAT SWI Estimation of 4-day rainfall for 4-year data Italy Spain NS=0.57 NS=0.62 Monday, September 23, 13
  • 48. 25  September  2013 Trento 1) ASCAT TU-Wien (FTP) 2) AMSR-E LPRM - asc, desc, asc+desc (VUA) 3) ESA – CCI SM product 4) ERA-Land (ECMWF) and 1) TRMM 3B42v7 (standard satellite rainfall product) ASCAT GRID ~ 12.5 km SM2RAIN testing: Italy Brocca et al., 2013 (EGU poster) Monday, September 23, 13
  • 49. 25  September  2013 Trento Correlation MAPS AMSR-EASCAT ESA-CCI ERA-Land TRMM Monday, September 23, 13
  • 50. 25  September  2013 Trento Europe … Africa Monday, September 23, 13
  • 51. 25  September  2013 Trento Europe … Africa Monday, September 23, 13
  • 52. 25  September  2013 Trento Global scale Brocca et al. (in preparation, NGS) Monday, September 23, 13
  • 53. 25  September  2013 Trento Global scale Brocca et al. (in preparation, NGS) SM2RAIN(ASCAT) vs TRMM Monday, September 23, 13
  • 54. 25  September  2013 Trento Antecedent Wetness Conditions Monday, September 23, 13
  • 55. 25  September  2013 Trento Antecedent Wetness Conditions Brocca et al. 2009 (JoH) 2009 (JHE) Monday, September 23, 13
  • 56. 25  September  2013 Trento P Antecedent Wetness Conditions Brocca et al. 2009 (JoH) 2009 (JHE) Monday, September 23, 13
  • 57. 25  September  2013 Trento P Rd Antecedent Wetness Conditions Brocca et al. 2009 (JoH) 2009 (JHE) Monday, September 23, 13
  • 58. 25  September  2013 Trento P Rd Antecedent Wetness Conditions SOIL CONSERVATION SERVICE METHOD (SCS-CN) Brocca et al. 2009 (JoH) 2009 (JHE) Monday, September 23, 13
  • 59. 25  September  2013 Trento P Rd θ Antecedent Wetness Conditions SOIL CONSERVATION SERVICE METHOD (SCS-CN) Brocca et al. 2009 (JoH) 2009 (JHE) Monday, September 23, 13
  • 60. 25  September  2013 Trento Tevere - PN Cerfone Timia Assino Genna Topino Niccone Caina Nestore 11 catchments 100-5000 km2 Italy Tiber River ERS SCATTEROMETER SOIL MOISTURE DATA S vs θ relation: ERS SCAT Brocca et al., 2009 (JoH); 2009 (JHE) Monday, September 23, 13
  • 61. 25  September  2013 Trento Tevere - PN Cerfone Timia Assino Genna Topino Niccone Caina Nestore 11 catchments 100-5000 km2 Italy Tiber River ERS SCATTEROMETER SOIL MOISTURE DATA S vs θ relation: ERS SCAT Brocca et al., 2009 (JoH); 2009 (JHE) Monday, September 23, 13
  • 62. 25  September  2013 Trento Tevere - PN Cerfone Timia Assino Genna Topino Niccone Caina Nestore 11 catchments 100-5000 km2 Italy Tiber River ERS SCATTEROMETER SOIL MOISTURE DATA S vs θ relation: ERS SCAT Brocca et al., 2009 (JoH); 2009 (JHE) Beck et al., 2010 (JSTARS) Tramblay et al., 2010 (JoH), 2011 (NHESS) Australia France Monday, September 23, 13
  • 63. 25  September  2013 Trento ALZETTE RIVER Average T~17 days S vs θ relation: ASCAT vs AMSR-E Monday, September 23, 13
  • 64. 25  September  2013 Trento TIBER RIVER ALZETTE RIVER S vs θ relation: ASCAT vs AMSR-E Monday, September 23, 13
  • 65. 25  September  2013 Trento +0.04+0.14 TIBER RIVER ALZETTE RIVER S vs θ relation: ASCAT vs AMSR-E Monday, September 23, 13
  • 66. 25  September  2013 Trento S vs θ relation: whole ITALY Analysis for 50 river basins across the whole Italian territory Monday, September 23, 13
  • 67. 25  September  2013 Trento S vs θ relation: whole ITALY Tanaro River – Masio (4500 km²) API5 ASCAT SWI Analysis for 50 river basins across the whole Italian territory Monday, September 23, 13
  • 68. 25  September  2013 Trento S vs θ relation: whole ITALY Tanaro River – Masio (4500 km²) API5 ASCAT SWI Analysis for 50 river basins across the whole Italian territory Monday, September 23, 13
  • 69. 25  September  2013 Trento Tramblay et al., 2012 (HESS) S vs θ relation: Morocco Monday, September 23, 13
  • 70. 25  September  2013 Trento Tramblay et al., 2012 (HESS) S vs θ relation: Morocco Monday, September 23, 13
  • 71. 25  September  2013 Trento Simplified SOIL MOISTURE θ Massari et al., 2013 (HESSD) ou ng Monday, September 23, 13
  • 72. 25  September  2013 Trento Simplified SOIL MOISTURE θ S = a(1 - θ) S SOIL CONSERVATION SERVICE METHOD (SCS- CN) θ S Massari et al., 2013 (HESSD) ou ng Monday, September 23, 13
  • 73. 25  September  2013 Trento Simplified SOIL MOISTURE θ S = a(1 - θ) S SOIL CONSERVATION SERVICE METHOD (SCS- CN) θ S EVENT-BASED RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL Massari et al., 2013 (HESSD) ou ng Monday, September 23, 13
  • 74. 25  September  2013 Trento DISCHARGE Simplified SOIL MOISTURE θ S = a(1 - θ) S SOIL CONSERVATION SERVICE METHOD (SCS- CN) θ S EVENT-BASED RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL Massari et al., 2013 (HESSD) ou ng Monday, September 23, 13
  • 75. 25  September  2013 Trento SCRRM: Greece Early Warning System for Flood and Fire forecasting Massari et al., 2013 (HESSD) Monday, September 23, 13
  • 76. 25  September  2013 Trento SCRRM: Greece Early Warning System for Flood and Fire forecasting Massari et al., 2013 (HESSD) Monday, September 23, 13
  • 77. 25  September  2013 Trento SCRRM: Greece Early Warning System for Flood and Fire forecasting Massari et al., 2013 (HESSD) ASCAT AMSR-E Monday, September 23, 13
  • 78. 25  September  2013 Trento Soil moisture assimilation into rainfall-runoff modelling Monday, September 23, 13
  • 79. 25  September  2013 Trento MISDc: "Modello Idrologico Semi-Distribuito in continuo" W(t) S(t) outlet discharge upstream discharge directly draining areas linear reservoir IUH EVENT-BASED RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL (MISD) subcatchments geomorphological IUH channel routing diffusive linear approach rainfall excess SCS-CN e(t): evapotranspiration f(t): infiltration g(t): percolation Wmax W(t) s(t): saturation excess SOIL WATER BALANCE MODEL S: soil potential maximum retention W(t)/Wmax: saturation degree r(t): rainfall Brocca et al., 2011 (HYP) Rainfall-runoff model: MISDc Monday, September 23, 13
  • 80. 25  September  2013 Trento MISDc: "Modello Idrologico Semi-Distribuito in continuo" W(t) S(t) outlet discharge upstream discharge directly draining areas linear reservoir IUH EVENT-BASED RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL (MISD) subcatchments geomorphological IUH channel routing diffusive linear approach rainfall excess SCS-CN e(t): evapotranspiration f(t): infiltration g(t): percolation Wmax W(t) s(t): saturation excess SOIL WATER BALANCE MODEL S: soil potential maximum retention W(t)/Wmax: saturation degree FREELY AVAILABLE !!! http://hydrology.irpi.cnr.it/tools-and-files/misdc r(t): rainfall Brocca et al., 2011 (HYP) Rainfall-runoff model: MISDc Monday, September 23, 13
  • 81. 25  September  2013 Trento Model implemented for real time application for the Umbria Region Civil Protection Warning System: UPPER TIBER RIVER Flood event of January 2010 Jan-2010 http://www.cfumbria.it/ Real time flood forecasting Monday, September 23, 13
  • 82. 25  September  2013 Trento Model implemented for real time application for the Umbria Region Civil Protection Warning System: UPPER TIBER RIVER Flood event of January 2010 Jan-2010 http://www.cfumbria.it/ Real time flood forecasting Monday, September 23, 13
  • 83. 25  September  2013 Trento Model implemented for real time application for the Umbria Region Civil Protection Warning System: UPPER TIBER RIVER Flood event of January 2010 Jan-2010 http://www.cfumbria.it/ Real time flood forecasting Monday, September 23, 13
  • 84. 25  September  2013 Trento Wagner et al., 1999 (RSE) SWI: Soil Water Index t: time ti: acquisition time of SSMti SSMti : relative surface soil moisture [0,1] T: characteristic time length Soil Water Index (SWI) Monday, September 23, 13
  • 85. 25  September  2013 Trento Wagner et al., 1999 (RSE) SWI: Soil Water Index t: time ti: acquisition time of SSMti SSMti : relative surface soil moisture [0,1] T: characteristic time length SSM SWI Soil Water Index (SWI) Monday, September 23, 13
  • 86. 25  September  2013 Trento 1981 Soil moisture data assimilation Monday, September 23, 13
  • 87. 25  September  2013 Trento Many studies performed synthetic experiments and tested different techniques and approaches for soil moisture assimilation into rainfall-runoff modelling. Soil moisture data assimilation Monday, September 23, 13
  • 88. 25  September  2013 Trento Many studies performed synthetic experiments and tested different techniques and approaches for soil moisture assimilation into rainfall-runoff modelling. Aubert et al., 2003 (JoH) Francois et al., 2003 (JHM) Chen et al., 2011 (AWR) Matgen et al., 2012 (AWR) Brocca et al., 2010 (HESS) Brocca et al., 2012 (IEEE TGRS) However, very few studies employed REAL-DATA ... and the improvement in runoff prediction obtained by the assimilation of soil moisture data is usually very limited. Soil moisture data assimilation Monday, September 23, 13
  • 89. 25  September  2013 Trento Many studies performed synthetic experiments and tested different techniques and approaches for soil moisture assimilation into rainfall-runoff modelling. 1. Spatial Mismatch: i.e. point ("in-situ") or coarse (satellite) measurements are compared with model predicted average quantities in space  REPRESENTATIVENESS 2. Time Resolution: only recently soil moisture estimates from satellite data are available with a daily (or less) temporal resolution (even if with a coarse spatial resolution) which is required for RR applications  DATA AVAILABILITY 3. Layer Depth: only the first 2-5 cm are investigated by remote sensing whereas in RR models a "bucket" layer of 1-2 m is usually simulated  ONLY SURFACE LAYER 4. Accuracy: the reliability at the catchment scale of soil moisture estimates obtained through both in-situ measurements and satellite data is frequently poor  TOO LOW QUALITY Aubert et al., 2003 (JoH) Francois et al., 2003 (JHM) Chen et al., 2011 (AWR) Matgen et al., 2012 (AWR) Brocca et al., 2010 (HESS) Brocca et al., 2012 (IEEE TGRS) However, very few studies employed REAL-DATA ... and the improvement in runoff prediction obtained by the assimilation of soil moisture data is usually very limited. Soil moisture data assimilation Monday, September 23, 13
  • 90. 25  September  2013 Trento time relativesoilmoisture observations modeled soil moisture updated soil moisture Brocca et al., 2010 (HESS), 2012 (IEEE TGRS) observations Soil moisture data assimilation Monday, September 23, 13
  • 91. 25  September  2013 Trento time relativesoilmoisture observations modeled soil moisture updated soil moisture Brocca et al., 2010 (HESS), 2012 (IEEE TGRS) observations Soil moisture data assimilation Monday, September 23, 13
  • 92. 25  September  2013 Trento time relativesoilmoisture observations modeled soil moisture updated soil moisture Brocca et al., 2010 (HESS), 2012 (IEEE TGRS) observations Soil moisture data assimilation Monday, September 23, 13
  • 93. 25  September  2013 Trento G is a constant G=0 "perfect" model G=1 direct insertion time relativesoilmoisture observations modeled soil moisture updated soil moisture Brocca et al., 2010 (HESS), 2012 (IEEE TGRS) Kalman GAIN model error obs error observations Soil moisture data assimilation Monday, September 23, 13
  • 94. 25  September  2013 Trento RAINFALL- RUNOFF MODEL COMPONENTS Soil moisture data assimilation Monday, September 23, 13
  • 95. 25  September  2013 Trento RAINFALL- RUNOFF MODEL DATA ASSIMILATION COMPONENTS Soil moisture data assimilation Monday, September 23, 13
  • 96. 25  September  2013 Trento RAINFALL- RUNOFF MODEL DATA ASSIMILATION COMPONENTS OBSERVATIONS Soil moisture data assimilation Monday, September 23, 13
  • 97. 25  September  2013 Trento RAINFALL- RUNOFF MODEL SUB-COMPONENTS Input/output data Model parameter values Model structure DATA ASSIMILATION COMPONENTS Technique (EKF, EnKF, PF, ...) BIAS handling (CDF match, ...) Error modelling (OBS, MOD) OBSERVATIONS Accuracy Spatial/temporal resolution Layer depth Soil moisture data assimilation Monday, September 23, 13
  • 98. 25  September  2013 Trento Niccone Migianella 137 km2 Central Italy Migianella experimental basin Monday, September 23, 13
  • 99. 25  September  2013 Trento Runoff prediction Brocca et al., 2012 (IEEE TGRS) Monday, September 23, 13
  • 100. 25  September  2013 Trento Runoff prediction Brocca et al., 2012 (IEEE TGRS) Monday, September 23, 13
  • 101. 25  September  2013 Trento Runoff prediction Brocca et al., 2012 (IEEE TGRS) Monday, September 23, 13
  • 102. 25  September  2013 Trento Runoff prediction Brocca et al., 2012 (IEEE TGRS) Monday, September 23, 13
  • 103. 25  September  2013 Trento Runoff prediction Brocca et al., 2012 (IEEE TGRS) Monday, September 23, 13
  • 104. 25  September  2013 Trento improving Runoff prediction Brocca et al., 2012 (IEEE TGRS) Monday, September 23, 13
  • 105. 25  September  2013 Trento Runoff prediction Monday, September 23, 13
  • 106. 25  September  2013 Trento Runoff prediction STRONG IMPROVEMENT Monday, September 23, 13
  • 107. 25  September  2013 Trento without assimilation with assimilation without assimilation with assimilation model starts one months before the first events Unknown initial conditions Brocca et al., 2010 (HESS) – Open access Monday, September 23, 13
  • 108. 25  September  2013 Trento without assimilation with assimilation without assimilation with assimilation model starts one months before the first events SIM. ASS. NS 36 83 |εQp| 43 18 |εRd| 59 24 Eff 62 Unknown initial conditions Brocca et al., 2010 (HESS) – Open access Monday, September 23, 13
  • 109. 25  September  2013 Trento without assimilation with assimilation without assimilation with assimilation model starts one months before the first events SIM. ASS. NS 36 83 |εQp| 43 18 |εRd| 59 24 Eff 62 Unknown initial conditions Brocca et al., 2010 (HESS) – Open access Monday, September 23, 13
  • 110. 25  September  2013 Trento Further applications … Monday, September 23, 13
  • 111. 25  September  2013 Trento South Italy - Fiumarella (33 km²) USA - Lucky Hills (0.04 km²) Luxembourg - Bibesbach (10.7 km²) France - Valescure (3.9 km²) Central Italy - Assino (165 km²) Central Italy - Niccone (137 km²) Further applications … Monday, September 23, 13
  • 112. 25  September  2013 Trento Summarizing … Monday, September 23, 13
  • 113. 25  September  2013 Trento  the assimilation of the ECMWF product has a slight impact due to the limited time period (2009-2010) Summarizing … Monday, September 23, 13
  • 114. 25  September  2013 Trento  the assimilation of the ECMWF product has a slight impact due to the limited time period (2009-2010)  for central Italy basins the assimilation of ASCAT and AMSR-E provide a significant improvement in model performance Summarizing … Monday, September 23, 13
  • 115. 25  September  2013 Trento  the assimilation of the ECMWF product has a slight impact due to the limited time period (2009-2010)  for central Italy basins the assimilation of ASCAT and AMSR-E provide a significant improvement in model performance  in south Italy a slight improvement can be yet seen Summarizing … Monday, September 23, 13
  • 116. 25  September  2013 Trento  the assimilation of the ECMWF product has a slight impact due to the limited time period (2009-2010)  for central Italy basins the assimilation of ASCAT and AMSR-E provide a significant improvement in model performance  in south Italy a slight improvement can be yet seen  in France no improvement can be obtained due to the difficulties of satellite data to retrieve soil moisture over mountain areas Summarizing … Monday, September 23, 13
  • 117. 25  September  2013 Trento  the assimilation of the ECMWF product has a slight impact due to the limited time period (2009-2010)  for central Italy basins the assimilation of ASCAT and AMSR-E provide a significant improvement in model performance  in south Italy a slight improvement can be yet seen  in France no improvement can be obtained due to the difficulties of satellite data to retrieve soil moisture over mountain areas  in Luxembourg the impact is limited due to the presence of snow Summarizing … Monday, September 23, 13
  • 118. 25  September  2013 Trento  the assimilation of the ECMWF product has a slight impact due to the limited time period (2009-2010)  for central Italy basins the assimilation of ASCAT and AMSR-E provide a significant improvement in model performance  in south Italy a slight improvement can be yet seen  in France no improvement can be obtained due to the difficulties of satellite data to retrieve soil moisture over mountain areas  in Luxembourg the impact is limited due to the presence of snow  in USA (arid catchment) soil moisture temporal variability is limited thus the assimilation do not have a significant impact Summarizing … Monday, September 23, 13
  • 119. 25  September  2013 Trento Landslide prediction Monday, September 23, 13
  • 120. 25  September  2013 Trento Torgiovannetto landslide  Near Assisi  Rock slope (abandoned stone quarry)  First slide in 2003  Landslide monitoring (extensometer, inclinometer)  Meteorological monitoring (rainfall and temperature) Monday, September 23, 13
  • 121. 25  September  2013 Trento Rainfall versus displacements rate Graziani et al., 2009 Monday, September 23, 13
  • 122. 25  September  2013 Trento Data set Soil moisture is estimated through ASCAT and considering an Antecedent Precipitation Index October 2007 – July 2009 Brocca et al., 2012 (RS) – Open access Monday, September 23, 13
  • 123. 25  September  2013 Trento Rainfall events extraction Monday, September 23, 13
  • 124. 25  September  2013 Trento ................ Rainfall events extraction Monday, September 23, 13
  • 125. 25  September  2013 Trento Multiple regression 1h max rainfall Total rainfall Displacements Antecedent Precipitation Index (N=20 g) Soil Water Index (T=75 g) Monday, September 23, 13
  • 126. 25  September  2013 Trento Multiple regression 1h max rainfall Total rainfall Displacements Antecedent Precipitation Index (N=20 g) Soil Water Index (T=75 g) 1) only rainfall (Pmax-1h e Ptot) 2) rainfall + API20 3) rainfall + SWI75 4) rainfall + API20 + SWI75 Monday, September 23, 13
  • 127. 25  September  2013 Trento OBSERVED ESTIMATED 1) only rainfall (Pmax-1h e Ptot) Prediction of landslide movements Monday, September 23, 13
  • 128. 25  September  2013 Trento 2) rainfall + API20 OBSERVED ESTIMATED Prediction of landslide movements Monday, September 23, 13
  • 129. 25  September  2013 Trento 3) rainfall + SWI75 OBSERVED ESTIMATED Prediction of landslide movements Monday, September 23, 13
  • 130. 25  September  2013 Trento Prediction of landslide movements 4) rainfall + API20 + SWI75 OBSERVED ESTIMATED Monday, September 23, 13
  • 131. 25  September  2013 Trento Prediction of landslide movements Monday, September 23, 13
  • 132. 25  September  2013 Trento Landslide forecasting Operational system TORGIOVANNETTO soil moisture rainfall LANDWARN rainfall + soil moisture thresholds Monday, September 23, 13
  • 133. 25  September  2013 Trento MALARIA OUTBREAKSNUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION Capecchi, Albergel, De Rosnay, … FLOOD DETECTION Lacava, Temimi, ... Montanari, Montosi, ... Further soil moisture applications EROSION Todisco, Mannocchi, Bagarello, Ferro, ... Soil moisture*Rainfall intensity Soillosses Monday, September 23, 13
  • 134. 25  September  2013 Trento Conclusions (finally ) Monday, September 23, 13
  • 135. 25  September  2013 Trento Remote sensing soil moisture products are found accurate for soil moisture estimation across Europe (and worldwide) Conclusions Monday, September 23, 13
  • 136. 25  September  2013 Trento Remote sensing soil moisture products are found accurate for soil moisture estimation across Europe (and worldwide) The use of soil moisture products might improve flood and landslide prediction Conclusions Monday, September 23, 13
  • 137. 25  September  2013 Trento Remote sensing soil moisture products are found accurate for soil moisture estimation across Europe (and worldwide) The use of soil moisture products might improve flood and landslide prediction Satellite soil moisture product can be also employed as additional tool for rainfall estimation Soil moisture data obtained from coarse-resolution sensors can provide useful information for many applications, new important challenges and opportunities for the use of these new sources of data are opened Conclusions Monday, September 23, 13
  • 138. 25  September  2013 Trento Remote sensing soil moisture products are found accurate for soil moisture estimation across Europe (and worldwide) The use of soil moisture products might improve flood and landslide prediction Satellite soil moisture product can be also employed as additional tool for rainfall estimation Soil moisture data obtained from coarse-resolution sensors can provide useful information for many applications, new important challenges and opportunities for the use of these new sources of data are opened Conclusions Who is interested to obtain satellite soil moisture data can contact me for getting information. Please do not hesitate. Monday, September 23, 13
  • 139. References cited  Aubert, D. et al. (2003). Sequential assimilation of soil moisture and streamflow data ... JoH., 280,145-161.  Bolten, J.D. et al. (2010). Evaluating the utility of remotely-sensed soil moisture for agricultural monitoring. JSTARS, 3, 57-66.  Brocca, L., et al. (2009). Soil moisture temporal stability over experimental areas of central Italy. GEOD, 148 (3-4), 364-374.  Brocca, L., et al. (2009). Assimilation of observed soil moisture data in storm rainfall-runoff modelling. JHE 14, 153-165.  Brocca, L., et al. (2010). Improving runoff prediction through the assimilation of the ASCAT soil moisture... HESS, 14, 1881-1893.  Brocca, L., et al. (2010). Spatial-temporal variability of soil moisture and its estimation across scales. WRR, 46,W02516.  Brocca, L., et al. (2011). Distributed rainfall-runoff modelling for … flood forecasting. HYP, 25, 2801-2813. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION URL: http://hydrology.irpi.cnr.it/people/l.brocca URL IRPI: http://hydrology.irpi.cnr.it This presentation is available for download at: http://hydrology.irpi.cnr.it/repository/public/presentations/2013/seminatio-trento-l.-brocca  Brocca, L. et al. (2011). Soil moisture estimation through ASCAT and AMSR-E sensors ... across Europe. RSE, 115, 3390-3408.  Brocca, L., et al. (2012). Soil moisture spatial-temporal variability at catchment scale. JoH, 422-423, 63-75.  Brocca, L., et al. (2012). Assimilation of surface and root-zone ASCAT soil moisture products into rainfall-runoff ... IEEE TGRS, 50(7), 1-14.  Brocca, L., et al. (2012). Improving Landslide Forecasting Using ASCAT-Derived Soil Moisture Data: A Case Study ... RS, 4, 1232-1244.  Brocca, L., et al. (…). Soil moisture estimation in alpine catchments through modelling and satellite observations. submitted to VZJ.  Brocca, L., et al. (...). A new method for rainfall estimation through soil moisture observations. submitted to GRL  Chen, F. et al. (2011). Improving hydrologic predictions of catchment model via assimilation of surface soil moisture. AWR, 34 526-535.  Cosh, M.H. et al. (2006). Temporal stability of surface soil moisture in the Little Washita River and its applications... validation. JoH, 323, 168-177.  de Rosnay, P. et al. (2009). Multi-scale soil moisture measurements at the Gourma meso-scale site in Mali. JoH, 375, 241-252.  Dharssi, I. et al. (2011). Operational assimilation of ASCAT surface soil wetness at the Met Office, HESS, 15, 2729-2746.  Francois, C. et al. (2003). Sequential assimilation of ERS-1 SAR data into a coupled land surface-hydrological model using EKF.JHM 4(2), 473–487.  Han, E., et al. (2012). Application of data assimilation with the RZQM for soil moisture profile estimation. HYP, 26, 1707–1719.  Jackson, T. et al. (1981). Soil moisture updating and microwave remote sensing for hydrological simulation. HSJ, 26, 3, 305-319.  Koster, R.D. et al. (2011). Skill in streamflow forecasts derived from large-scale estimates of soil moisture and snow. Nature Geo, 3 613-616.  Matgen, P. et al. (2012). Can ASCAT-derived soil wetness indices reduce predictive uncertainty in well-gauged areas? A comparison with in situ observed soil moisture in an assimilation application. AWR, 44, 49-65.  Nearing, M. et al. (2005). Modeling response of soil erosion and runoff to changes in precipitation and cover. CAT, 61, 131-154.  Owe M., et al. (2008). Multi-sensor historical climatology of satellite-derived global land surface moisture. JGR, 113, F01002.  Tramblay, Y., et al. (2012). Estimation of antecedent wetness conditions for flood modelling in Northern Morocco. submitted to HESS.  Wagner, W., et al. (1999). A Method for Estimating Soil Moisture from ERS Scatterometer and Soil Data, RSE 70, 191-207.  Zhao, Y. et al. (2010). Controls of surface soil moisture spatial patterns and their temporal stability in a semi-arid steppe. HYP, 24, 2507-2519. Monday, September 23, 13
  • 140. References cited  Aubert, D. et al. (2003). Sequential assimilation of soil moisture and streamflow data ... JoH., 280,145-161.  Bolten, J.D. et al. (2010). Evaluating the utility of remotely-sensed soil moisture for agricultural monitoring. JSTARS, 3, 57-66.  Brocca, L., et al. (2009). Soil moisture temporal stability over experimental areas of central Italy. GEOD, 148 (3-4), 364-374.  Brocca, L., et al. (2009). Assimilation of observed soil moisture data in storm rainfall-runoff modelling. JHE 14, 153-165.  Brocca, L., et al. (2010). Improving runoff prediction through the assimilation of the ASCAT soil moisture... HESS, 14, 1881-1893.  Brocca, L., et al. (2010). Spatial-temporal variability of soil moisture and its estimation across scales. WRR, 46,W02516.  Brocca, L., et al. (2011). Distributed rainfall-runoff modelling for … flood forecasting. HYP, 25, 2801-2813. Thanks for your attention FOR FURTHER INFORMATION URL: http://hydrology.irpi.cnr.it/people/l.brocca URL IRPI: http://hydrology.irpi.cnr.it This presentation is available for download at: http://hydrology.irpi.cnr.it/repository/public/presentations/2013/seminatio-trento-l.-brocca  Brocca, L. et al. (2011). Soil moisture estimation through ASCAT and AMSR-E sensors ... across Europe. RSE, 115, 3390-3408.  Brocca, L., et al. (2012). Soil moisture spatial-temporal variability at catchment scale. JoH, 422-423, 63-75.  Brocca, L., et al. (2012). Assimilation of surface and root-zone ASCAT soil moisture products into rainfall-runoff ... IEEE TGRS, 50(7), 1-14.  Brocca, L., et al. (2012). Improving Landslide Forecasting Using ASCAT-Derived Soil Moisture Data: A Case Study ... RS, 4, 1232-1244.  Brocca, L., et al. (…). Soil moisture estimation in alpine catchments through modelling and satellite observations. submitted to VZJ.  Brocca, L., et al. (...). A new method for rainfall estimation through soil moisture observations. submitted to GRL  Chen, F. et al. (2011). Improving hydrologic predictions of catchment model via assimilation of surface soil moisture. AWR, 34 526-535.  Cosh, M.H. et al. (2006). Temporal stability of surface soil moisture in the Little Washita River and its applications... validation. JoH, 323, 168-177.  de Rosnay, P. et al. (2009). Multi-scale soil moisture measurements at the Gourma meso-scale site in Mali. JoH, 375, 241-252.  Dharssi, I. et al. (2011). Operational assimilation of ASCAT surface soil wetness at the Met Office, HESS, 15, 2729-2746.  Francois, C. et al. (2003). Sequential assimilation of ERS-1 SAR data into a coupled land surface-hydrological model using EKF.JHM 4(2), 473–487.  Han, E., et al. (2012). Application of data assimilation with the RZQM for soil moisture profile estimation. HYP, 26, 1707–1719.  Jackson, T. et al. (1981). Soil moisture updating and microwave remote sensing for hydrological simulation. HSJ, 26, 3, 305-319.  Koster, R.D. et al. (2011). Skill in streamflow forecasts derived from large-scale estimates of soil moisture and snow. Nature Geo, 3 613-616.  Matgen, P. et al. (2012). Can ASCAT-derived soil wetness indices reduce predictive uncertainty in well-gauged areas? A comparison with in situ observed soil moisture in an assimilation application. AWR, 44, 49-65.  Nearing, M. et al. (2005). Modeling response of soil erosion and runoff to changes in precipitation and cover. CAT, 61, 131-154.  Owe M., et al. (2008). Multi-sensor historical climatology of satellite-derived global land surface moisture. JGR, 113, F01002.  Tramblay, Y., et al. (2012). Estimation of antecedent wetness conditions for flood modelling in Northern Morocco. submitted to HESS.  Wagner, W., et al. (1999). A Method for Estimating Soil Moisture from ERS Scatterometer and Soil Data, RSE 70, 191-207.  Zhao, Y. et al. (2010). Controls of surface soil moisture spatial patterns and their temporal stability in a semi-arid steppe. HYP, 24, 2507-2519. Questions? Monday, September 23, 13