Internet Communications: A Look Ahead

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Jonathan Rosenberg, Skype's Chief Technology Strategist, presented at the 2010 PTC.

Jonathan Rosenberg, Skype's Chief Technology Strategist, presented at the 2010 PTC.

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  • New year – new decade – opportunity for introspection and for looking forward. What have been industry’s successes so far?Voice: this has been our focus – and the industry has succeeded in delivering a narrowband voice experience everywhere. Yesterday also saw the beginnings of wideband voice. Skype led this – bringing wideband to all our 500M registered users. Others came along too. We’re seeing usage in other desktop apps and within enterprises too, but its far from ubiquiitous.Enterprise: VoIP has been a shining success here. XX% of new product sales into enterprise are voip and not TDM, install base is XX% voip, expecting to be XX% by year DDDD. Market leader Cisco is all IP. Cable: VoIP has made great inroads in cable – part of triple play, focused on cost savings. Invisible to users, but there are XX millions of US users with voip in the home from cable operators (not sure I can get number).Consumer Desktop: Huge usage of VoIP on the desktop by application providers. Skype again has led here – 520M users, 27.7billion S2S minutes Q309. Market here driven primarily by app providers – Skype, Google, Microsoft.Backhaul: The biggest usage of VoIP so far – inivisble to users, the glue between networks. One piece of evidence – <next slide>

Transcript

  • 1. Internet Communications: A Look Ahead
    Jonathan Rosenberg
    Chief Technology Strategist
  • 2. Successes ofYesterday
    Enterprise
  • 3. Successes ofYesterday
    49%
    Percentage of 2009 PBX line sales that are IP.
    Enterprise
    Source: Dell’Oro
  • 4. Successes ofYesterday
    Enterprise
    Cable
  • 5. Successes ofYesterday
    16.5M
    Number of US homes utilizing cable IP telephony
    Enterprise
    Cable
    Source: MediaCensus
  • 6. Successes ofYesterday
    Enterprise
    Cable
    ConsumerDesktop
  • 7. Successes ofYesterday
    521M
    Number of registered Skype Users at end of Q309
    Enterprise
    Cable
    ConsumerDesktop
  • 8. Successes ofYesterday
    41%
    Y2Y growth in registered Skype users as of Q209
    Enterprise
    Cable
    ConsumerDesktop
  • 9. Successes ofYesterday
    12%
    In 2009
    Enterprise
    8%
    Percentage of ILD traffic worldwide over Skype in 2008
    Cable
    ConsumerDesktop
    Source: Telegeography
  • 10. Successes ofYesterday
    27.7B
    S2S minutes inQ309
    Enterprise
    71%
    IY2Y Increase from 2008
    Cable
    ConsumerDesktop
  • 11. Successes ofYesterday
    Enterprise
    Backhaul
    Cable
    ConsumerDesktop
  • 12. Opportunities of Tomorrow
    Web
    Video
    Mobile
  • 13. Video – Why Now?
  • 14. Video – Why Now?
  • 15. Video – Why Now?
  • 16. Video – Why Now?
  • 17. placeholder graphic
    34%
    of Skype to Skype calls
    Include Video
  • 18.
  • 19. 38%
    in 2013
    15%
    of the mobile phones sold worldwide in 2008 were smartphones
    Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, 2009
  • 20. 100M
    LTE subscribers by 2014
    Source: Juniper Research
  • 21. 90%
    in 2014
    45%
    WiFi attach rate in smartphones in 2009
    Source: ABI Research
  • 22. Mobile VoIP: A Perfect Storm
    Wifi
    MobileVoIP
    Smartphones
    App Stores
    3g/4g
  • 23. Skype partnership with Hutchison 3
    3 Skypephone
    • 500K units sold, one of the most popular pre-pay handsets for 3
    • 24. 20% higher margin than average PAYG user on 3
    • 25. 79% of customers are new to 3
    • 26. 500M+ free Skype-to-Skype minutes on the 3 UK network since November 2006
    • 27. 1.7M free Skype-to-Skype minutes carried over 3 UK's network each day in August 2009
    • 28. 150M+ free Skype conversations on the 3 UK network since November 2006
  • The Line Between the Web and Real-Time Communications is Fading
    Social Networking = Person to Person
    IM in the Browser
    Wave and Real-Time Text
    Voice and Video in HTML5
    Web Apps as Interactive as Desktop
  • 29. The Web of Tomorrow will Have a Voice
    Voice and Video Seamlessly Integrated
    Web Applications Become Collaborative
    “Voice Connect” bridges communications into 3rd party apps
    The Browser is the Universal Client