Cleantech - Global Opportunity for Business 7.11.2007, Fujino
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Ympäristöliiketoiminta on kääntynyt kasvuun myös Suomessa. Sitran Ympäristö-ohjelman päättyessä ohjelma kannustaa Suomen teollisuutta ja elinkeinoelämää panostamaan enemmän ...

Ympäristöliiketoiminta on kääntynyt kasvuun myös Suomessa. Sitran Ympäristö-ohjelman päättyessä ohjelma kannustaa Suomen teollisuutta ja elinkeinoelämää panostamaan enemmän ympäristöteknologian ja -palvelujen kaupallistamieen ja kansainvälistämiseen.

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Cleantech - Global Opportunity for Business 7.11.2007, Fujino Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Keynote Presentation:Japan leading the way towards low carbon societyDr. Junichi Fujino, Senior Researcher of National Institute for Environmental Studies of Japan Cleantech – Global Opportunity for Business 7.11.2007
  • 2. http://2050.nies.go.jp/interimreport/20070215_report_e.pdf Japan Low-Carbon Society (LCS) Study Designed by Hajime Sakai Junichi Fujino (fuji@nies.go.jp) NIES (National Institute for Environmental Studies), Japan The seminar “Cleantech – Global Opportunities for Business” Sitra, Finland, Nov 7th, 2007
  • 3. CCSR/NIES/FRCGC, JapanSurface Air Temperature Change (1900=0 oC) http://2050.nies.go.jp
  • 4. How fast we need to reduce GHG emissions Per capita Energy Carbon activity Intensity IntensityTotal amount Activity Energy CO2 CO2 emissions=Pop × × × Pop Activity Energy 60-80% reductions differential Change rate integral Total Kaya identityChange rate=speed Activity Energy CO2CO2emission Pop = + Pop + Activity + EnergyChange rate Change rate change rate change rate change rate -2~3%/year -0.5%/year 1.5%/year Y%/year X%/yearThe case of Japan LCS 1%/year -3~4%/year
  • 5. http://www.kantei.go.jp/foreign/abespeech/2007/05/24speech_e.html
  • 6. As for LCS visions, we prepared two different but likely future societies Vision A “Doraemon” Vision B “Satsuki and Mei”Vivid, Technology-driven Slow, Natural-orientedUrban/Personal Decentralized/Community Doraemon is a Japanese comic series created by Fujiko F.Technology breakthrough Self-sufficient Fujio. The series is about a robotic cat named Doraemon,Centralized production Produce locally, consume who travels back in time from the 22nd century. He has a/recycle locally pocket, which connects to the fourth dimension and acts like a wormhole.Comfortable and Convenient Social and Cultural Values2%/yr GDP per capita growth 1%/yr GDP per capita growth Satsuki and Mei’s House reproduced in the 2005 World Expo. Satsuki and Mei are daughters in the film "My Neighbor Totoro". They lived an old house in rural Japan, near which many curious and Akemi Imagawa magical creatures inhabited.
  • 7. Projected Japan population and 140 households in scenario A 100% 90% 120 age 100% Type of household (%) 80% 80- 80- (Thousand) 100 80% 70% Others 60-79 60-79 60%Population(Million) 80 40-59 Population 40-59 60% 50% Parent- 60 20-39 20-39 Children 40% One-Person 0-19 0-19 40% 40 30% Couple-Only 20% 20 20% 10% Couple- Children 0 0% 0% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 year 2000 2050 A B Population (million) 126.9 94.5 100.3 Aged population ratio (%) 17.4 38.0 35.8 Average number of household 2.71 2.19 2.38 Single-person households (%) 27.6 42.6 35.1 http://2050.nies.go.jp
  • 8. Projected energy efficiency improvement: Air-conditioners for cooling and heating 9.0 MOE 8.0 AIST HistoricalCOP (Coefficient of performance) 7.0 Best 2050s 6.0 METI Target METI 5.0 4.0 Average 3.0 Worst 2.0 Top-runner approach 1.0 0.0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
  • 9. Utilizing solar power LCS house in 2050 Comfortable and Eco-life education energy-saving house Photovoltaic34-69MW 10-20% energy rooftop(25-47% house has PV on roof (now 1%)) demand reductionand develop high efficiency (<30%) PV gardening High efficiency lighting Solar heating 【eg LED lighting】 Diffusion rate: 20-60% Reduce 1/2 (currently 8%) energy demand Share 100% Monitoring system equipped with appliances High-insulation Reduce 60% warming Super high energy demand, efficiency air share 100% conditioner COP (coefficients of Fuel cell performance=8), Heat-pump heating share 0-20% share 100% COP=5 Stand-by energy share 30-70% reduction Good information for economy and environment High efficiency appliances Reduce 1/3 energy demand, makes people’s behavior reduce energy demand and share 100% low-carbon support comfortable and safe lifestyle 5
  • 10. Residential sector Energy demand reduction potential: 50% 70 Change of the number of households Change of service 60 demand per household 3 3 4 4 Change of energy demand per householdEnergy Consumption (Mtoe) 50 9 10 Improvement of energy efficiency Electricity consumption 40 17 H2 consumption 23 30 Solar consumption 20 Biomass consumption Gas consumption 10 Oil consumption 0 Energy consumption in 2000 2050A 2050B 2000Change of the number of households: the number of households decrease both in scenario A and BChange of service demand per household: convenient lifestyle increases service demand per householdChange of energy demand per household: high insulated dwellings, Home Energy Management System (HEMS)Improvement of energy efficiency: air conditioner, water heater, cooking stove, lighting and standby power
  • 11. http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/TheMeetingPlace/Activities/Activities2007/0706AchievingSustainableLCS.aspx from passenger transportation Demand management e.g. by information- communication technology sector (1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)=0.26 [transport-service per capita] Modal shift to reduce CO2 EF Improve fuel economy per passenger-km or ton-km [Fuel consumption per vehicle-km] CO 2 TransServ Pkm(Tkm)  Vkm Fuel CO 2 EF       Pkm(Tkm)  Vkm  Fuel   capita capita TransServ Mode  Improve load factor [vehicle-km per Pkm(Tkm)] Improve accessibility Introduce low carbon energy [passenger-km or ton-km [CO2 emission factor per fuel per transport-service] consumption]Yuichi Moriguchi, 2nd Japan-UK joint research project workshop (2007.6)
  • 12. Estimated regional automotive CO2 emissions 2. 50 Tokyo Met. Nagoya Met. 2. 00 Osaka Met. Other Areas 1. 50 Freight vehicles 1. 00 0. 50 Passenger cars 0. 00[t/year] 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000CO2 per capita Accumulated population [million] Each Area is categorized in 1. Major cities 2. Cities with a pop of 0.5 million and above 3. Cities with a pop of 0.3 and above 4. Cities with a pop of 0.1 and above 5. Cities with a pop less than 0.1 million 6. Counties Passenger car emissions (t-CO2/capita)Yuichi Moriguchi, 2nd Japan-UKjoint research project workshop (2007.6)
  • 13. Passenger transportation Energy demand reduction potential: 80% 60 Change of total transportation amount 1 4 Change of structure of Decrease of demand 6 transportation 50 4 Modal shift 7 Decrease of serviceEnergy demands (Mtoe) demand Land use Change 6 Improvement of 40 energy efficiency Electricity Energy Efficiency 30 32 H2 28 Solar 20 Biomass 10 Gas Oil 0 Energy demands in 2000 2050A 2050B 2000
  • 14. Energy demands for achieving 70% reduction of CO2 emissions Seconday Energy Demands (Mtoe) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Residential Trans. Prv. 2000(Actual) Industrial Commercial Trans. Frg. 2050(Scenario A) 40-45% energy demand reduces by structural Decrease of change of demand, energy demand and efficiency 2050(Scenario B) improvement Industrial Residential Commercial Trans. Prv. Trans. Frg. Trans.Prv.: Transportation (Private), Trans.Frg.: Transportation (Freight)Possible energy demands reductions for each sector:Industry:structural change and introduction of saving energy tech. 20~40%Passenger Transport :land use, saving energy, carbon-intensity change 80%Freight Transport :efficient transportation system, energy efficient 60~70%Residential: high-insulated and energy-saving houses 50%Commercial: high-insulated building and energy saving devices 40% 19
  • 15. What is Low Carbon Energy Supply System? Large-scaleLarge-scale Small-scale Storage Consumer Supplier Storage Grid Electricity Electricity Nuclear Distributed RenewablesRenewables Heat Pump Electrolysis StationaryFossil Fuel Fuel Cell Heat Fuel Cell Hydrogen Vehicle TransCCS (Carbon portation BiofuelCapture and Storage) http://2050.nies.go.jp Fujino (2005)
  • 16. Energy supply for achieving 70% reduction of CO2 emissions Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2000(Actual) Coal Oil Gas2050(Scenario A) Nuclear Centralized style Decentralized style2050(Scenario B) Biomass Solar and Wind Micro grid Coal Oil Gas Biomass Nuclear Hydro Solar and Wind 21
  • 17. 7 Current per capita 6 CO2 emissionsCO2 per capita emissions (t-C/cap) $200/t-C scenario US and Target 5 US: delay for tech development, Canada global warming business 4 EU: Initiatives toward LCS UK Germany Japan: Need long-term vision 3 METI, Japan Developing countries: earlier 2030 scenario guidance toward LCS is key 2 France Japan 2050 World scenario 1 China Target for IA2 IB1 Low Carbon Society 0 India Shuzo Nishioka, Junichi Fujino; 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 NIES COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event Global Challenges Toward Low-Carbon Economy (LCE), Dec.3, 2005
  • 18. CO2 Emission from Energy Activities in China 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2Gt-C 1.0 LCS Scenario 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Jiang Kejun, Low-Carbon Options in China EMF 22, Tsukuba, Dec 12-14, 2006
  • 19. Transition of energy intensity: Start of new innovation race U.S. EU-15CO2/Capita 4 0.5 U.K. Germany ドイツ France Japan一人あたりCO2 排出量(tC/人) 3.5 Korea Energy/GDP [toe/thousand$] イギリス Ger 0.4 3 Japan 2.5 0.3 Korea 2.22tC/人 U.S. 2 フランス UK 0.2 1.5 Fr U.K. 1 日本 0.82tC/人 0.1 Japan ? 0.5 Past Plan 実績値 計画値 0.5 tC/人 0 0.0 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year (Based on IEA Energy Statistics) By S.Nishioka and S.Ashina
  • 20. Japan-UK Joint Research Project LCS through Sustainable Development for Global Participation A First workshop was held G8 Gleneagles 2005 in Tokyo, June14-16, 2006.Participants from 19 countries;Asia: Japan, China, India, Thailand,Taiwan (China)Africa: South Africa, NigeriaEurope: UK, France, Germany,Denmark, Spain, Netherlands, Russia G8 JapanLatin America: Brazil, Mexico, ChileNorth America: US, Canada July 2008 A Second workshop was held in London, June13-15, 2007. A Third workshop will be held in Japan, Feb13-15, 2008.Developing and Diffusing Innovations http://2050.nies.go.jpfor our good life and LCS through SD
  • 21. LCS is not only to avoid dangerous climate change, but to… • Avoid energy resource battles by using resources in efficient ways • Develop many innovations to support global sustainable development • Build safe and sound society considering appropriate land-use and city planningWe need good institutions to enhance people who has taken actions for these activity
  • 22. What do you want to do now for our future? Christmas Concert of Yoko Fujino’s Piano Class on Dec 23, 2005