• Birth rates •Death rates•Factorsaffecting the levels of fertility and mortality
Births and deaths are natural causes of population change. The difference between the birth rate and the death rate of a country or place is called the natural increase Natural increase = birth rate - death rate.
CRUDE BIRTH RATE (CBR) FERTILITY RATE / TOTAL FERTILITY RATE REPLACEMANT LEVEL FERTILITY (RLF) CHILD WOMEN RATIO AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE
CRUDE BIRTH RATE (CBR): the number of births in a year per 1000 of the population FERTILITY RATE / TOTAL FERTILITY RATE: the number of births in a year per 1000 women of normal reproductive age (15-44 age groups) REPLACEMANT LEVEL FERTILITY (RLF): the level at which each level generation of woman has only enough daughters to replace themselves in the population CHILD WOMEN RATIO: ratio of children under 5 years old to women of child bearing age (15-49 age groups) AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE: a measure of the number of children born to each age-group in relation to the number of women in the age group
CRUDE DEATH RATE (CDR) INFANT MORTALITY RATE (IMR) LIFE EXPECTANCY MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE (MMR) AGE SPECIFIC DEATH RATE (ASDR)
Parents want children: For labour To look after them in old age To continue the family name For added status in their community Ensure survival of children
Birth rates are high in LEDCs, for example it is about 48 in the Democractic Republic of the Congo and 46 in Afghanistan. There are several reasons for this:1. Children provide labour on family-subsistence farms.2. There are no old age pensions, so children provide security for old age3. Large families are seen as a sign of a husband’s virility
4. Girls are expected to marry early, which extends their child-bearing years.5. Women stay at home and raise a family and with little education they do not know about birth control.6. Some religion do not approve contraception.7. High infant mortality encourage large families to ensure some children survive.
It costs a lot of money to feed, clothe and educate children The government looks after people through pensions and health services More women want their own career There is more widespread use of family planning As the infant mortality rate comes down there is less need for replacement children Urbanisation and industrialisation associated with a decline in traditional beliefs and customs
Birth rates are low in MEDCs e.g, UK, Sweden and Germany. There are several reasons for this:-1. People marry later2. Women are educated and delay having a family so they can have a career.3. High cost of living make having children expensive.4. Some couple prefer material possessions such as car, house and holidays.5. Birth control (the contraceptive pill in particular) is freely available6. Government discourage large families in order to save the cost of building more schools
Lower fertility rate does not immediately lead to lower birth rate & lower population growth rate if a country has a larger proportion of men and women in the reproductive years than before
In most part of the world, FERTILITY exceeds both MORTALITY & MIGRATION Several African countries (Nigeria, Somalia, Uganda & Angola) have very high birthrates of over 50 per 1000 per year On the end of the scale, Belarus, Bulgaria, Estonia, Italy, Russia & Spain have low birthrates of 9 per 1000 per year
Rural and urban areas Educated and less educated people People of different religions Different regions of a country (due to levels of education , % of population that is urbanised and religions)
Demographic factors Education Religion Economic factors Social and cultural factors Modernisation & the changing fertility trend Diet and health Governments
Families try to compensate for high infant and child mortality by having large number of children. This is in the hope that some will survive. In Sub-Saharan Africa, to replace those who have died with an IMR of 100 per 1000, a woman has to have ten children to be 95% certain that a male heir will survive to adulthood
However today, due to improvement in medical facilities and increase standard of living, parents choose to have smaller families when health conditions improve because they no longer have to fear that many of their babies might die.
The more advance the level of education reached, the smaller will be the average size of a family due to: Knowledge of birth control Greater social awareness of the benefits of smaller families Higher incomes and desire for more material possession More parents are sending their daughters to school, which is important because women with basic education tend to produce healthier children and smaller families
The Muslim and Catholic religions encourage large families They oppose any forms of contraception Hence these countries tend to have high birth rates
In LEDCs children are seen as an economic asset. They are seen as producers rather than consumers. In other words children are seen as a source of cheap (free) labour on the farm, in the home or in sweat shops where the wage can help boost the family income. In old age the grown-up children can help to care for the parent – thus children are an insurance policy.
In MEDCs children are perceived as a financial burden – as consumers rather than producers. The cost of child dependency is a major factor in the decision to begin or extend a family. In the UK there are tuition fees for Higher Education and student loans – the costs to the parents of the child could extend beyond 18 years and offspring often stay living at home into their 20s.
In Sri Lanka economic growth between 1947 and 1952 led to greater spending on health care and so mortality declined. In the UK as women entered the workforce large families became uneconomical. In industrial South Wales women are over 50% of the workforce and families depend on their wages.
In times of economic prosperity and stability birth rates can rise in MEDCs as people have more confidence about the future –e.g. the 1960s baby boom. In LEDCs although treatments may be available in theory in practice they can’t be afforded – e.g. HIV drugs available but expensive.
Strong correlation between increasing female literacy and decreasing fertility rates Low literacy rates and drop out school early esp girls mean that they have to enter marriage early and so have children early Similarly, women reduced access to employment means that they are forced to devote themselves to child bearing and informal home and agricultural work
In parts of Africa polygamy is practised and a man’s status is indicated by the number of children that he has sired. Thus one man may father many children encouraging high fertility. In rural areas of India government policies of population control fall against the strong social and religious traditions.
In UK average age of a woman getting married is 30 yrs old and delaying having children. In Hindu culture, it is traditionally for a girl to marry at the age of 16 and to give birth at least to 10 children
In Japan the birth rate fell in 1966 the Year of the Horse – an unlucky year for babies to be born. Births fell by 466,000 (half a million). In some societies female infanticide has been practised – where male births were more highly prized – Inuit, India, China (under the one child policy).
1. Government policy can be aimed at increasing or decreasing fertility rates (and mortality rates). E.g. willingness to fund fertility treatment on the NHS.2. Mortality rates are increased in war times – and birth rates fell in Japan during WWII from 30/000 to 23/000. (A baby boom followed the war).
The governments of Italy, Germany and Japan all offered inducements and concessions to those with large families in the 1930s (pre-WWII) for strategic reasons. More recently Malaysia introduced a similar policy. Many LEDC governments have intervened to reduce fertility rates e.g. China and India.
Some countries with ageing populations may try to increase fertility rates with tax incentives to families or actions such as child benefit and maternity and paternity leave. In the 1980s Japan legalised abortion leading to a dramatic decrease in birth rates.