What do you think the reasons are for the changes at each stage?
Stage 1 Little access to birth control Birth Rate Many children die in infancy so parents have more to Death Rate compensate Children are needed to work on the land Some religions encourage large families Total Death rates are high due to Population disease, famine, poor diet, poor hygiene, little medical science
Stage 2 • Improvements in medical care • Improvements in sanitation and water supply Birth Rate • Quality and quantity of food produced improves • Transport and communications improve movements of food and medical supplies • Decrease in infant mortalityTotal Death RatePopulation
Stage 3 • Increased access to contraception Total Population • Lower infant mortality rates so less need for bigger families • Industrialisation and mechanisation means fewer labourers required • As wealth increases, desire for Birth Rate material possessions takes over Death Rate the desire for large families • Equality of women means they can follow a career rather than just staying at home
Stage 4 • Rates fluctuate with ‘baby booms’ Total and epidemics of illnesses and Population diseases • Reasons for Stage 4 have improved and it stabilises Birth Rate Death Rate
High BR: Lack of knowledge of birth control Children as workers andinvestment To counter the impact of high IMR Male heirHigh DR: Poor health care Lack of hygiene Poor living condition 46/1000 in 1921
Stage 2 1920-1985 • Population growing at faster rate • (population explosion) Birth Rate • BR still high • Decreasing death rate • India became a British colony which brought improved medicines, health care, water and sanitation services Death Rate • IMR and DR fell • 50% were below 15 yrs old when they reach child bearing age, population growth will still continued to grow rapidly
Stage 3 • Since 1985 • DR- levelling off (9/1000) • Not many ageing Birth Rate population – low 4% • BR decline 28/1000 Death Rate • Natural increase still high 1.9%
NO Not all countries have steady development / stages ofdevelopment Some countries have no proper census DTM based on British Countries Eurocentric – a very European perspectives Stage of development is pretty much slower Some LEDCs have no history of DTM until recently China – government is adopting ANTI-NATALIST POLICYtherefore change the DTM
Only considered BR, DR & NI It does not include the influences of migration(immigration, emigration) It assumes that all countries will go through thesame pattern There is no time scale Reasons for birth rates and death rates are verydifferent in different countries And finally, is there a stage 5?
Like all models, the demographic transition model has itslimitations. It failed to consider, or to predict, severalfactors and events:1. Birth rates in several MEDCs have fallen below deathrates (Germany, Sweden). This has caused, for the firsttime, a population decline which suggests that perhaps themodel should have a fifth stage added to it.2. The model assumes that in time all countries passthrough the same four stages. It now seems unlikely,however, that many LEDCs, especially in Africa, will everbecome industrialised.
3. The model assumes that the fall in the deathrate in Stage 2 was the consequence ofindustrialisation. Initially, the death rate in manyBritish cities rose, due to the insanitary conditionswhich resulted from rapid urban growth, and itonly began to fall after advances were made inmedicine.The delayed fall in the death rate in manydeveloping countries has been due mainly to theirinability to afford medical facilities. In manycountries, the fall in the birth rate in Stage
3 has been less rapid than the model suggests dueto religious and/or political opposition to birthcontrol (Brazil), whereas the fall was much morerapid, and came earlier, in China following thegovernment-introduced ‘onechild’ policy.The timescale of the model, especially in severalSouth-east Asian countries such as Hong Kong andMalaysia, is being squashed as they develop at amuch faster rate than did the early industrialisedcountries.
4. Countries that grew as aconsequence of emigration from Europe(USA, Canada, Australia) did not passthrough the early stages of the model.