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Ip surveillance market survey in thailand and indonesia 2011 by sirena cheng

Ip surveillance market survey in thailand and indonesia 2011 by sirena cheng

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    Ip surveillance market survey in thailand and indonesia 2011 by sirena cheng1 Ip surveillance market survey in thailand and indonesia 2011 by sirena cheng1 Presentation Transcript

    • IP surveillance businessIP surveillance businessIP surveillance businessIP surveillance business opportunityopportunityopportunityopportunity inininin Thailand andThailand andThailand andThailand and IndonesiaIndonesiaIndonesiaIndonesia (2011)(2011)(2011)(2011) Sirena Cheng Nov. 24, 2010 www.sirenacheng.net Agenda • Global Trend to 2025 • Global vs. APAC Economic Development • Business Opportunity in APAC region – IP Surveillance Market Survey in APAC region – Network Security Market Survey in APAC region – Wireless Network Market Survey in APAC region Sirena Cheng
    • Global Scenarios to 2025 - The critical uncertainties SocialSocialSocialSocial TechnologicalTechnologicalTechnologicalTechnological EconomicEconomicEconomicEconomic EnvironmentalEnvironmentalEnvironmentalEnvironmental PoliticalPoliticalPoliticalPolitical �Intolerance ethnic / religious tensions �Pandemics �Regional population distribution �Energy intensity �Energy transitions �Technological progress in genetics & life sciences �A two speed economy �China's slowing economy �Decoupling from US economy �Energy demand growth �Energy infrastructure investment �Global FDI flows �Global trade �Prosperity levels �Russia's economic fundamentals �US economic fundamentals �Climate change �Food security �Water scarcity �America’s global image �CBW proliferation �China’s leadership in region/world �Climate change mitigation �Corruption �Fundamentalism �Global governance �Market openness �Nuclear proliferation �Religious fundamentalism �Security of energy supply �Terrorism �US moral leadership in the World Source: NIC Sirena Cheng • Global Trend to 2025 • Global vs. APAC Economic Development • Business Opportunity in APAC region – IP Surveillance Market Survey in APAC region – Network Security Market Survey in APAC region – Wireless Network Market Survey in APAC region Agenda Sirena Cheng
    • Global Average Projected Real GDP Growth during 2010–11 Sirena Cheng Asia: Average Projected Real GDP Growth during 2010–11 The most of APAC countries’ real GDP growth rate is above 5%. Sirena Cheng
    • Asia: Average Projected Real GDP Growth during 2010/2011 Source: IMF Staff 2010 Sirena Cheng ASIA countries overview Sirena Cheng
    • India: Key Indicators 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 A. Real Expenditure GrowthA. Real Expenditure GrowthA. Real Expenditure GrowthA. Real Expenditure Growth 1. GDP at market prices 9.1 6.1 6.0 7.5 8.0 2. Private consumption 7.6 2.9 4.0 6.7 7.5 3. Government consumption 7.6 20.2 10.0 7.0 6.5 4. Fixed investment 14.0 8.3 4.9 10.5 10.9 5. Exports, GNFS 2.8 12.8 -6.8 11.1 13.1 6. Imports, GNFS 7.5 17.9 -8.0 11.6 13.3 B.B.B.B. Price DeflatorsPrice DeflatorsPrice DeflatorsPrice Deflators 1. GDP at market prices 17.7 -6.7 4.5 10.8 8.9 2. Private consumption 18.6 -2.5 1.1 11.4 8.3 3. Exports, GNFS 14.8 4.9 -8.4 1.8 1.4 4. Imports, GNFS 15.6 14.5 -16.3 6.7 0.9 C.C.C.C. Share of GDPShare of GDPShare of GDPShare of GDP 1. Private consumption 58.1 58.9 55.8 55.8 55.2 2. Government consumption 10.7 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.2 3. Fixed investment 35.5 37.8 36.1 37.2 37.9 4. Change in stocks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5. Total investment 35.5 37.8 36.1 37.2 37.9 D. Memo 1. Nominal GDP (USD billions) 1,123.4 1,111.9 1,232.1 1,467.0 1,725.1 2. Population (millions) 1,169.0 1,183.2 1,197.2 1,210.9 1,224.3 3. GDP per capita, current USD 961.0 939.7 1,029.2 1,211.6 1,409.1 4. Real per capita GDP growth 7.5 4.8 4.8 6.3 6.8 5. USD Fx rate 40.1 44.6 48.5 47.0 46.0Sirena Cheng Thailand: Key Indicators 2008 2009 2010e 2011f   Year Year Year Year Output, Employment and PricesOutput, Employment and PricesOutput, Employment and PricesOutput, Employment and Prices Real GDP (% change y-y) 2.5 -2.2 7.5 3.2 Domestic demand (% change y-y) 4.1 -6.6 9.8 4.2 Industrial production index (2000=100) 178.9 166.1 .. .. (% change y-y) 3.9 -7.2 .. .. Unemployment (%) 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 Real wages (% change y-y) 1/ 4.8 -1.6 .. .. Consumer price index (% change y-y) 5.5 -0.8 3.5 3.0 Public SectorPublic SectorPublic SectorPublic Sector Government revenues (% GDP) 16.5 16.4 16.6 16.8 Government expenditures (% GDP) 17.6 21.4 19.0 20.2 Government balance (% GDP) 2/ -1.9 -4.3 -2.1 -3.2 Domestic public sector debt (% GDP) 3/ 33.7 39.7 38.8 39.4 Financial MarketsFinancial MarketsFinancial MarketsFinancial Markets Domestic credit (% change y-y) 7/ 9.3 3.1 .. .. Short-term interest rate (% p.a.) 8/ 3.4 1.4 .. .. Exchange rate (Baht/US$, ave) 33.4 34.3 32.5 30.0 Real effective exchange rate (2000=100) 9/ 112.8 108.8 .. .. (% change y-y) 0.5 -3.6 .. .. Stock market index (Dec. 1996=100) 10/ 450 735 .. .. Memo: Nominal GDP (billions US$) 272.0 263.7 309.8 356.9 Source: National data sources, World Bank staff estimates OCT., 2010Sirena Cheng
    • Malaysia: Key Indicators 2008 2009 2010e 2011f   Year Year Year Year Output, Employment and PricesOutput, Employment and PricesOutput, Employment and PricesOutput, Employment and Prices Real GDP (% change y-y) 4.6 -1.7 7.4 4.8 Industrial production index (2000=100) 107.8 99.8 .. .. (% change y-y) 0.6 -7.5 .. .. Unemployment (%) 3.3 3.7 .. .. Consumer price index (% change y-y) 5.4 0.6 2.0 2.4 Public SectorPublic SectorPublic SectorPublic Sector Government balance (% GDP) /1 -4.8 -7.0 -5.4 -4.5 Domestic public sector debt (% GDP) 1/ 39.6 53.4 .. .. Financial MarketsFinancial MarketsFinancial MarketsFinancial Markets Domestic credit (% change y-y) 4.1 4.8 .. .. Short-term interest rate (% p.a.) 4/ 3.5 2.1 .. .. Exchange rate (Ringgit/US$, eop) 3.46 3.42 .. .. Real effective exchange rate (2000=100) 5/ 103.3 99.9 .. .. (% change y-y) 0.8 -3.3 .. .. Stock market index (Apr. 4, 1986=100) 6/ 877 1273 .. .. Memo: Nominal GDP (billions US$) 222.2 194.7 .. .. Source: National data sources, World Bank staff estimates OCT., 2010 Sirena Cheng Indonesia: Key Indicators 2008 2009 2010e 2011f   Year Year Year Year Output, Employment and PricesOutput, Employment and PricesOutput, Employment and PricesOutput, Employment and Prices Real GDP (% change y-y) 1/ 6.0 4.6 6.0 6.2 Industrial production index (2000=100) 127.2 128.8 132.7 135.4 (% change y-y) 3.0 1.5 3.0 2.0 Unemployment (%) 8.4 8.1 .. .. Real wages (% change y-y) -3.3 .. .. .. Consumer price index (% change y-y) 2/ 11.1 2.8 6.4 6.1 PublicPublicPublicPublic SectorSectorSectorSector Government revenues (% GDP) 19.8 15.5 15.9 15.5 Government expenditures (% GDP) 19.9 17.0 17.4 17.2 Government balance (% GDP) -0.1 -1.6 -1.5 -1.7 Domestic public sector debt (% GDP) 33.0 29.5 28.3 26.4 Financial MarketsFinancial MarketsFinancial MarketsFinancial Markets Domestic credit (% change y-y) 30.5 9.9 19.0 22.0 Short-term interest rate (% p.a.) 6/ 9.2 7.3 6.8 .. Exchange rate (Rupiah/US$, ave) 9,756 10,356 9,091 9,000 Real effective exchange rate (2000=100) 148.8 148.9 149.8 .. (% change y-y) 8.8 0.1 0.6 .. Stock market index (Aug. 1988=100) 7/ 2087 2014 .. .. Memo: Nominal GDP (billions US$) 507.5 544.0 712.2 857.4 Source: National data sources 2010 Sirena Cheng
    • Vietnam: Key Economic Indicators 2008 2009 2010e 2011f   Year Year Year Year Output, Employment and PricesOutput, Employment and PricesOutput, Employment and PricesOutput, Employment and Prices Real GDP (% change y-y) 6.2 5.3 6.5 7.0 Industrial production index (% change y-y) 13.9 7.6 12.5 14.5 Unemployment (%) 1/ 4.7 4.6 4.0 4.0 Consumer price index (% change y-y) 19.9 6.5 8.0 7.0 Public SectorPublic SectorPublic SectorPublic Sector Government balance, official (% GDP) 2/ 1.3 -5.1 -1.7 -0.7 Government balance, general (% GDP) 3/ -0.9 -8.9 -5.9 -4.5 Public sector debt (% GDP) 4/ 43.9 49.0 51.3 50.6 Financial MarketsFinancial MarketsFinancial MarketsFinancial Markets Domestic credit (% change y-y) 25.4 37.7 25.0 25.0 Short-term interest rate (% p.a.) 6/ 8.1 10.7 11.0 .. Exchange rate (Dong/US$, eop) 17,486 18,479 .. .. Real effective exchange rate (2000=100) 119.1 106.8 .. .. (% change y-y) 18.9 -10.3 .. .. Stock market index (Jul. 2000=100) 7/ 316 494.8 .. .. Memo: Nominal GDP (billions US$) 90.3 93.2 103.6 115.4 Sources: Vietnam Government Statistics Office, State Bank of Vietnam, IMF, and World Bank staff estimates OCT., 2010 Sirena Cheng • Global Trend to 2025 • Global vs. APAC Economic Development • Business Opportunity in APAC region – IP Surveillance Market Survey in APAC region – Network Security Market Survey in APAC region – Wireless Network Market Survey in APAC region Agenda Sirena Cheng
    • The application market of IP Surveillance � Airport and Ground Handling � Education Services � Electric Power Generation, Distribution and Transmission Equipment � Food Processing & Cold Storage Equipment � Industrial Textiles � Machine Tools � Mining and Mineral Processing Equipment � Oil and Gas Field Machinery � Pollution Control Equipment � Homeland Security Equipment � Franchising � Telecommunication Equipment � Water Sirena Cheng Top Ten Future Trends Affecting Security Sirena Cheng
    • Sirena Cheng Sirena Cheng
    • Physical Security Solution in Retail Market 2004-2014 Sirena Cheng Physical Security Systems in the Retail Market Sirena Cheng
    • Physical Security Solutions in Retail Market Forecast, 2004-2014 Sirena Cheng Global Homeland Security Market Overview Global government spending in 2010 on homeland securityin 2010 on homeland securityin 2010 on homeland securityin 2010 on homeland security will reach $178.2bn$178.2bn$178.2bn$178.2bn. Over the forecast period of 2010-20202010-20202010-20202010-2020, the cumulative homeland security market will total nearly $2.7 trillion$2.7 trillion$2.7 trillion$2.7 trillion covering: – Aviation Security – Mass Transit SecurityMass Transit SecurityMass Transit SecurityMass Transit Security -> IP SurveillanceIP SurveillanceIP SurveillanceIP Surveillance – Maritime Security – Infrastructure SecurityInfrastructure SecurityInfrastructure SecurityInfrastructure Security -> Network SecurityNetwork SecurityNetwork SecurityNetwork Security – Telecommunications, Data and Cyber Security ->Telecommunications, Data and Cyber Security ->Telecommunications, Data and Cyber Security ->Telecommunications, Data and Cyber Security -> Network SecurityNetwork SecurityNetwork SecurityNetwork Security – Border SecurityBorder SecurityBorder SecurityBorder Security -> IP SurveillanceIP SurveillanceIP SurveillanceIP Surveillance – Counter-terror Intelligence-Counter-terror Intelligence-Counter-terror Intelligence-Counter-terror Intelligence->>>> IP SurveillanceIP SurveillanceIP SurveillanceIP Surveillance – CBRN Security – Emergency Response Sirena Cheng
    • Homeland Security Market in APAC � The Homeland Security expenditure in APACThe Homeland Security expenditure in APACThe Homeland Security expenditure in APACThe Homeland Security expenditure in APAC is forecast to grow by 20%20%20%20% annually for the foreseeable future and is expected to reach US$25.8 billion annually byUS$25.8 billion annually byUS$25.8 billion annually byUS$25.8 billion annually by 2015201520152015. � The Global HLS market is expected to be around $50 Billion in 2010, the Asia Pacific region contributes to almost 21% of the global HLS spending. (10.5 Billion of Homeland Security Market business opportunity in APAC in 2010) � China and India's HS expenditure alone is expected to exceed US$20.3 billionChina and India's HS expenditure alone is expected to exceed US$20.3 billionChina and India's HS expenditure alone is expected to exceed US$20.3 billionChina and India's HS expenditure alone is expected to exceed US$20.3 billion annually by 2015.annually by 2015.annually by 2015.annually by 2015. � China, Japan and India are expected to lead the Homeland Security market in the APAC region although Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia have also grown their share over the years and are emerging as potential HLS markets.” � IMS Research estimates that the Asia market for network video cameras will reach US$4122.8 million in 2011. Sirena Cheng APAC Airport Security Market Spending to surge past USD9 Billion by 2015 � APACAPACAPACAPAC’’’’s Airport Security Markets Airport Security Markets Airport Security Markets Airport Security Market’’’’s estimated market share is 12% of the totals estimated market share is 12% of the totals estimated market share is 12% of the totals estimated market share is 12% of the total Homeland Security spendingHomeland Security spendingHomeland Security spendingHomeland Security spending. Frost & Sullivan estimates that the Asia Pacific Airport Security Market will grow from USD 5.21 billion in 2008 to USD 9.23 billion in 2015 with an expected CAGR of 8.5 per cent from 2008 to 2015. � The three main segments of the Airport Security market consists of: Airport Screening, Surveillance and Access Control markets. The Screening segment is estimated to have the largest share in the Airport Security Market in Asia Pacific followed by Access Control and then Surveillance. � There has been significant development in the airport infrastructure in Asia Pacific with the expected opening of many new airports. These developments come with the need to adopt more up-to-date security infrastructure. New terminals and runway construction are likely to exceed USD46 billion during the period from 2010 to 2025. � China and India, together, have planned to develop and construct at least 93 new airports in an effort to cater to the fast-growing air traffic demands in those two countries, with combined expected expenditures of over USD33.4 billion. � The development and expansion of airports have been rampant across Asia Pacific countries, especially in Thailand, Indonesia, Australia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Sirena Cheng
    • APAC countries Airport Security Market Forecast to 2015 Singapore:Singapore:Singapore:Singapore: Total Airport Security Spending is expected to reach 298.0 million by 2015. Australia:Australia:Australia:Australia: Total Airport Security Spending in Australia is expected to reach $640.2 million by 2015. Vietnam:Vietnam:Vietnam:Vietnam: is also looking to develop at least three new airports and expand its existing seven airport terminals between 2010 and 2020, with ambitious plans to become the air traffic hub in Southeast Asia. South KoreaSouth KoreaSouth KoreaSouth Korea: Total Airport Security Spending in South Korea is expected to reach $518.4 million by 2015. Hong KongHong KongHong KongHong Kong: Total Airport Security Spending in Hong Kong is expected to reach $470.5 million by 2015. ThailandThailandThailandThailand’’’’s Government has plans for further development of airports which are expected to carry on till 2016 hence it will have high growth rate. Total Airport Security Spending in Thailand is expected to reach $411.3 million by 2015. Malaysia:Malaysia:Malaysia:Malaysia: Total Airport Security Spending in Malaysia is expected to reach $180.6 million by 2015. Sirena Cheng • Global Trend to 2025 • Global vs. APAC Economic Development • Business Opportunity in APAC region – IP Surveillance Market Survey in APAC region - Thailand – Network Security Market Survey in APAC region – Wireless Network Market Survey in APAC region Agenda Sirena Cheng
    • Thailand Safety and Security Equipemtn Market Overview � Thailand's economic stimulus package of USD 3.3 billion is aiming to further develop critical infrastructure and this is also fuelling the demand for security solutions. One of the infrastructure projects is the extension of Bangkok's mass rapid transit (MRT) system and the Suvarnabhumi Airport rail link, which will prompt a high demand for surveillance cameras. � Thailand’s vast infrastructure investment is prompting a high local demand for security solutions. For example, the government will invest THB 1.43 trillion (USD 42.2 billion) in the three-year Stronger Thai stimulus project focusing primarily on infrastructure. � According to the A&S Asia magazine, the sales of IP-based systems and analog in Thailand increased by 20 percent and 15 percent respectively in 2009 and it is expected to grow steadily. The security electronics market including video surveillance, access control, intrusion detection and perimeter fencing is estimated to reach up to THB 9.5 trillion (USD 280 million) in 2010. Sirena Cheng Safety and Security Equipment Market in Thailand - 1 � Thailand is by far one of the biggest security and safety markets in the ASEAN region. The Thai government‘s overall annual spending in security is estimated to be USD 70 million, and is expected to grow between 5% and 10% over the next few years. The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) is installing a hybrid system linked to about 10,000 surveillance cameras in the streets and public depots of Bangkok. � The intelligence and security surveillance markets also take up a significant share, especially in the southern provinces of Thailand where one city surveillance project worth USD 30 million. The ongoing unrest in Thailand’s three southern most provinces is expected to sustain Government spending in the area over the next couple of years. From 2004 to 2009, the budget for security projects in Southern Thailand was reported to be $1.5 billion. � The sales of IP-based systems and analog increased by 20% and 15% respectively in 2009 and it is expected to grow steadily. � The security electronics market including video surveillance, access control, intrusion detection and perimeter fencing is estimated to reach up to THB 9.5 trillion (USD 280 million) in 2010. � With the legal enforcement of the Building Inspection Law, the fire alarm market is estimated to reach USD 60 million and demand for fire alarm systems is expected to grow tenfold. It is estimated that 15,000 to 20,000 building units need new fire alarm systems. Sirena Cheng
    • Security and Safety Equipment market in Thailand - 2 � The market for safety and security equipment is expected to grow at between 5-10 percent over the next few years. Spending on airport security, particularly on scanners, is on the rise as a direct result of the 2009 Christmas bombing attempt at the Detroit airport. Annual spending on security at the Suvannabhumi Airport is reported at $48 million. � CCTV accounts for 70 percent of the overall spending on security equipment in the market. It has an estimated annual value of $90 million. Industry experts believe it will continue to be the most popular form of security equipment and expect this sector to grow 10-15 percent annually. � The market for fire alarms is estimated at US$60 million, and demand for fire alarm systems is expected to grow by ten-fold with the legal enforcement of the Building Inspection Law. Enforcement of this regulation will create a market of 15,000 to 20,000 building units that need new fire alarm systems. Companies in the security industry are optimistic about the growth of this market segment. Sirena Cheng Total $ 134 Millions $ 100 $25 $ 7.5 $1.5 Safety and Security Market in Thailand in 2006 Market Value: $134 Million in 2006Market Value: $134 Million in 2006Market Value: $134 Million in 2006Market Value: $134 Million in 2006 Market Growth: 30% per yearMarket Growth: 30% per yearMarket Growth: 30% per yearMarket Growth: 30% per year Market ClassificationsMarket ClassificationsMarket ClassificationsMarket Classifications Detection Devices ($ 25 Millions Dollar) Video surveillance systems ($100 Millions Dollar) Fire and gas detectors ($1.5 Millions Dollar) Home Security Systems ($7.5 Millions Dollar) Sirena Cheng
    • Safety and Security Market Classifications in Thailand � Detection Devices: � Major buyers: Embassies, banks, Hotels, Offices and manufacturing plants � Video surveillance systems: � Major buyers: Commercial buildings including commercial banks, shopping complexes, residential buildings, manufacturing plants and warehouses � Fire and gas detectors: � Major buyers are petrochemical, oil refinery and gas industries � Home Security Systems: � Major buyers: upper middle to high-end single detached house owners Sirena Cheng Safety and Security Exhibition in Thailand • Safety & Security Asia 2007 • The 9th international Safety and Security Exhibition • Date: October 31 –November 2, 2007 • Place: Singapore • http://www.safetysecurityasia.com.sg
    • • Global Trend to 2025 • Global vs. APAC Economic Development • Business Opportunity in APAC region – IP Surveillance Market Survey in APAC region - Indonesia – Network Security Market Survey in APAC region – Wireless Network Market Survey in APAC region Agenda Sirena Cheng Safety and Security Equipment Market in Indonesia � In 2006, the value of imported product reached US$175 million, an increase of 12% from 2005. Although final data is not available, the estimated value of imported products in 2007 was $210 million. Industry sources project a positive outlook for imports of safety and security equipment. Imports are expected to increase by about 10%-15% in the next two years. � Presently, equipment of medium level quality is generally imported from Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and China. Products with higher, more sophisticated quality are imported from the United States and some West European countries. Sirena Cheng
    • Airport and Seaport Safety and Security Equipment Market in Indonesia � There are 186 airports located throughout Indonesia, managed by the state-owned airport management companies PT Angkasa Pura I (PAP I) and PT Angkasa Pura II (PAP II), the Directorate General of Air Communication (DGAC), Ministry of Communication and local governments (provinces/districts). PAP I and PAP II manage 25 airports. � There are approximately 656 “public” ports, of which 91 are managed by four state- owned port operators known as PT. Pelabuhan Indonesia (Pelindo) I, II, III and IV. � Recently, sixteen port facilities have been exempted from the Port Security Assessment. After being checked by the U.S. Coast Guard, these ports had already implemented the ISPS Code. Ships which are departing from these ports will be allowed to stop in any U.S. ports. These ports are: PT Terminal Peti Kemas Surabaya, Banjarmasin Port, PT Pertamina Unit Pemasaran III, Pertamina Unit Pengolahan V Balikpapan, Senipah Terminal Total E&P Indonesia Balikpapan, Caltex Oil Terminal Dumai, Pelindo II Conventional Terminal Jakarta, Jakarta International Container Terminal, PT Pupuk Kaltim Bontang, PT Badak Bontang, PT Indominco Mandiri Bontang, Pertamina Unit Pengolahan II Dumai, PT Pelabuhan Indonesia I Cabang Dumai, Semarang International Container Terminal, Belawan Multi-Purpose Terminal, PT Multimas Nabati Asahan. � There are around 300 security service companies currently registered with the Indonesian National Police (POLRI). However, according to the Asian Professional Security Association, only 75 companies are really operating in the security business in Indonesia. � The need for security and safety equipment is directly related to the existence of residential, commercial and industrial buildings as well as the overall plan for various new building constructions. Therefore, the current market size for this equipment may presumably be estimated based on the total of existing units and those under development. Sirena Cheng the Indonesian National Police, other key end-users in the public sector � Ministry of Defense � Directorate General of Immigration � Directorate General of Tariff and Duty � Ministry of Justice � The National Intelligence Bureau � The National Search and Rescue Agency Sirena Cheng