Global thrust towards freight efficiency improvement will push the demand for alternative powertrains and advanced telematics-enabled technologies in medium duty (MD) trucks. By 2025, urbanization, proliferation of hub-and-spoke distribution, and the growth in ASEAN, Africa and Middle East markets will propel medium duty (MD) truck growth at CAGR 4.8% to touch 1.55 million units globally in 2025, from 972,000 units in 2015. However, the medium duty segment is facing volume pressure globally from growth in heavy duty trucks which are preferred for logistics between hubs and light city vehicles which are preferred for city distribution. However, sustained demand for the segment will come from urbanization and routing demand in the next 11 countries. On the architectural front, cab-over type MD trucks are growing in demand vis-à-vis conventional trucks due to the impact of urbanization which drives the demand for more fuel-efficient truck design. Alternative powertrains will not experience significant adoption in MD trucks due to the negative impact on payload due to a larger fuel tank in CNG trucks and batteries in hybrid/fully electric powertrains. However, over the next 10 years, the penetration of telematics technology is expected to grow rapidly to more than 31% of VIO. By 2025, NA, EU and China are expected to account for 62% of telematics installed in trucks in operation, rising from 72% in 2015, indicating greater proliferation in other markets.

1. 2025 Vision of Transformations in Global Medium-Duty Truck Market
Growth in Value Truck Segment in BRIC and Next 11 Markets Offer Volume and
Margin Opportunities to MD Truck OEMs
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July 2016

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Contents
Section Slide Number
Executive Summary 3
Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology 12
Definitions and Segmentation 19
Mega Trend Implications and Transformational Shifts 21
Global Medium-Duty Truck Overview 30
Special Focus: Japan & Korea 43
Global Platforms of Select Medium-Duty OEMs 48
Market Share Analysis of Key Regions 57
OEM Comparison in Key Regions 73
Conclusions and Future Outlook 79
Appendix 83

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Executive Summary

4. 4K046-18
Executive Summary—Top 5 Insights
Global thrust toward freight efficiency improvement will push the demand for alternative chassis designs and
advanced telematics-enabled technologies in medium-duty (MD) trucks.
1
2
3
4
5
The medium-duty segment is facing volume pressure globally from growth in heavy-duty
trucks which are preferred for logistics between hubs and light city vehicles which are
preferred for city distribution. However, sustained demand for the segment will come from
urbanization and routing demand in ASEAN, Middle East, and Africa.
Evolving logistical needs in urban areas is resulting in increasing instances of trucks cubing
out before they weigh out. Focal point in truck chassis and body design will move from
weight characteristics to cube characteristics forcing innovative chassis and body designs
(Example: low-floor chassis).
Asian OEMs have a market share of more than 40% in the global MD market; they are
expected to further augment market share with leadership in the cab-over MD truck segment
and low-cost/value truck segment.
MarketSizeandCompetitionProductAttributes
Urbanization, proliferation of hub-and-spoke distribution, growth in ASEAN, Africa, and the
Middle East markets will propel medium-duty (MD) truck growth at a CAGR of 4.8% to touch
1.55 million units globally in 2025, from 972,000 units in 2015.
Medium-Duty Truck Market: Top 5 Insights, Global, 2015–2025
Cab-over type MD trucks are growing in demand vis-à-vis conventional trucks due to the
impact of urbanization which drives the demand for more fuel-efficient truck design.
Source: Frost & Sullivan

5. 5K046-18
Market Stage
Growth
Market
Units/Volume
972,700
(2015)
Stable IncreasingDecreasing
Compound
Annual Growth
Rate
4.8%
(CAGR, 2015–2025)
Base Year
Market Growth
Rate
(1.9%)
Market
Concentration
40%
(% of market share held by top
3 companies)
Number of
Competitors
>20
(active market competitors in
base year)
Market Size for
Last Year of
Study Period
1,550,000
(2025)
Medium-Duty Truck Market: Market Engineering Measurements, Global, 2015
TRIAD: North America, Western Europe, Japan
Market Engineering Measurement
Medium-duty truck sales will rise globally at a CAGR of 4.8% buoyed by growth in non-TRIAD economies.
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2015. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Market Overview

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Medium-Duty Truck Market: Impact of Hub and Spoke Distribution, Global, 2015 and 2025
LDT MDT HDT
City
Trucks
2015
2025
• MD trucks are increasingly cubed out
before they weigh out, thereby
raising demand for improved body
volume.
• Thus, MD trucks with lower GVWR
ratings are likely to see a rise in
demand.
LDT & MDT
HCT & Mega
Trucks
Key Comment
• Hubs are the central distribution centers located just
outside of city limits. Heavy-duty trucks (with double
trailers) are used to carry goods to and between hubs.
• Medium- and light-duty trucks are used to transport goods
from the hubs to multiple drop points within the city which
includes both distribution centers within the city and
increasingly, individual consumer door steps.
• The rise in number of intra-city drop points (while package
sizes drop) is generating the demand for greater volume
in truck body while payload demand drops.
The Spokes
Heavy CVs
The Hub
Medium
and
light
CVs
Executive Summary—Volume growth MD truck Market
The growth in urban logistics is offering volume growth opportunities for medium-duty trucks. MD trucks to
cube out before they weigh out.
Source: Frost & Sullivan

7. 7K046-18
37%
35%
10%
8%
8%
2%
0%
0% 20% 40%
Asia+Oceania
Japan
North America
South America
Africa+Middle East
Europe
Row
% Share
36.2%
19.4%
13.5%
13.5%
9.0%
5.7%
2.6%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0%
Africa+Middle East
Japan
Asia+Oceania
North America
Europe
South America
RoW
% Share
Isuzu Annual Unit Sales: 6T–10T, Global, 2015
Hino Annual Unit Sales: 5T–15T, Global, 2015
• ASEAN, Middle East and Africa are the largest
markets for Japanese MD truck OEMs as these
markets are the prime targets for low-cost and
value trucks giving opportunities to both Asian
OEMs and TRIAD OEMs.
• Sustained economic growth in these regions will
result in growth in market share of Japanese as well
as other Asian OEMs with their leadership in
low-cost trucks and focus on value truck segment.
TRIAD
BRIC
The Middle East
Next 11
ASEAN
Africa *TRIAD—North America, Western Europe, and Japan
Executive Summary—Rise of Asian OEMs in Medium-duty Truck Market
As growth shifts from TRIAD* (and even BRIC markets) toward ASEAN, the Middle East and Africa, these
MD-intensive truck markets will stoke the growth of Asian OEMs.
Source: Frost & Sullivan

8. 8K046-18
2025
Premium
Value
Low Cost
Executive Summary—MD Truck Price-positioning Forecast
Owing to the rising per capita income across ASEAN, the premium and value segments are set to capture
69% of the global MD truck market by 2025.
NA
28.8%
SA
10.6%
EU
7.5%Russia
10.5%
China
6.2%
India
1.6%
Next 11
11.6%
RoW
23.1%
2015
Premium
Value
Low Cost
17.0%
40.0%
43.0%
31.0%
30.0%
39.0%
Medium-Duty Truck Market: Percent Unit Shipment Forecast, Global, 2015 and 2025
• Value segment is set to grow to 30% market share in the next 10 years, largely driven by demand from ASEAN.
• The low-cost truck segment is likely to decline in terms of percentage share by 2025. However, in terms of unit volume this
segment is expected to grow by 79%.
MD Truck Market: Value and Premium Truck Sales by Region,
Global, 2025
~972,700 ~1,550,000
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2015. Source: Frost & Sullivan

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8
11
3
1
3
4
2
3
2
1
2
3
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
Daimler (incl Foton)
Volvo (incl Dongfeng)
MAN SE
Scania AB
IVECO
PACCAR Inc.
Navistar Inc.
TATA Motors
Ashok Leyland
CNHTC
Isuzu
Hino
Observed no. of distinct platforms, 2015
Estimated no. of global platforms available, 2015 OEM Group
Key Global Truck and Associated
Platforms
Daimler Group
Fuso Canter, Fuso F series, Foton
Aumark
Volvo Group UD Condor, Quon, Dongfeng KR
MAN SE TGL
Scania AB P Series
IVECO Eurocargo
PACCAR Inc DAF LF
Navistar Inc Durastar
TATA Motors Daewoo Novus
Ashok Leyland Ecomet
CNHTC Howo
Isuzu F Series, N Series
Hino 195/155 (for NA), 300, 500 Series
Medium-Duty Truck Market: Key Truck Platforms, Global, 2015
Expected to Increase by 2025 Expected to stay at current level
Executive Summary—Medium-Duty Truck Global Platforms
Despite strong modular platform development capabilities, OEMs such as Scania, PACCAR and Navistar
do not have strong low-value truck platforms for emerging markets.
Source: Frost & Sullivan

10. 10K046-18
Engine
Engine Power (HP) 150–300
Torque (Nm) 400–1000
Engine
Displacement (L)
4–6.5
No. of Cylinders 4
Transmission
5/6 AMT (low cost)
6 Speed AT
(value/premium)
Suspension and Braking
• Multileaf suspensions
• Disc/drum brakes with ABS
Medium-Duty Truck Market: Virtual MDT Truck, Global, 2025
Weight
GVWR (Ton) 6–15
Payload Capacity (Ton) 4–10
Cab Features
Steering
Telescopic and
Power steering
Telematics Standard
Comfort and Safety
A/C, ABS and
airbags
Infotainment
Music system,
Bluetooth
Build
• Cab-over-engine
• Wheel base 150-240 inches
Executive Summary—Vision of 2025 MD Truck Design Boundaries
4–6.5L engine, 6–15T GVWR, and 150–300 HP power bandwidth to define basic tenets of global MD truck
platforms by 2025.
Source: Frost & Sullivan

11. 11K046-18
Parameters Current Outlook (2015) Future Outlook (2025)
Market Status
MD trucks account for nearly 37% of MD-HD
trucks globally.
Despite market share threats from mega trucks and
light city vehicles, MD trucks are expected to grow in
emerging markets to sustain global market share.
Competition
This is a highly fragment market with domestic
OEMs dominating most regional markets. NA
OEMs are rebadging/jointly developing trucks
with Japanese OEMs for this market.
Japanese OEMs are expected to gain market share
globally due to the growing demand for their cab-
over-engine trucks.
Technology
Telematics are installed in nearly 19% of MD
trucks in operation across key markets. NA,
EU, and China account for about 72% of global
populace of telematics installed vehicles.
Over the next 10 years, penetration is expected to
grow rapidly to more than 31% of vehicles in
operation (VIO). NA, EU, and China would account
for 62% of telematics-installed trucks in operation in
2025, rising from 72% in 2015 and indicating greater
proliferation in other markets.
Value
Proposition
MD trucks are re-used for a multitude of
applications from short haul to vocational
applications, such as garbage collection, mining
and construction.
MD truck in short-haul application is expected to
shrink with the increase in mega trucks and light city
vehicles. Demand in vocational applications is set to
rise, especially in emerging markets.
Total MD Truck Market: Current and Future Outlook, Global, 2015 and 2025
Executive Summary—Key Findings and Future Outlook
Growing demand for trucks in vocational applications will sustain the demand for MD trucks globally.
Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and
Methodology

13. 13K046-18
Research Scope
Commercial Trucks with GVWR 6T upto less than 16TVehicle Type
2016–2025Forecast Period
2015–2025Study Period
2015Base Year
Global
• North America consists of the United States & Canada
• South America includes all other countries of Latin America, save
Mexico
• Europe consists of 28 Countries in European Union
• China
• India
• Russia
• Next 11 (Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the
Philippines, Turkey, South Korea, Vietnam, and Bangladesh)
• Rest of the world (RoW)
Geographical Scope
Source: Frost & Sullivan

14. 14K046-18
Research Aims and Objectives
Aim
• To identify and understand the key trends impacting the MD truck market across regions that
influence truck design and technology.
Objectives
• To provide market size and forecasts of medium-duty trucks for 2015–2025.
• Outline market dynamics, key trends, market drivers and restraints thereof, and industry challenges.
• Compare and analyze the different platforms of major global MD truck OEMs.
• Provide strategic recommendations and conclusions and highlight a tentative global MD platform
expected to be the best-fit model based on Frost & Sullivan analysis.
• To analyze competitive factors, competitor market shares, and product portfolio and capabilities.
• To develop an actionable set of recommendations for market growth and sustenance.
Source: Frost & Sullivan

15. 15K046-18
Key Questions This Study Will Answer
What are the key trends impacting the medium-duty truck market?
How will truck features evolve by 2025? What will be the key technologies?
What will be the product focus of key OEMs in each region?
What will be the medium-duty truck technology strategy for truck OEMs across regions?
What is the projected volume of truck sales and the share of medium-duty trucks in 2025?
What are the drivers and restraints for medium-duty truck market?
Source: Frost & Sullivan

16. 16K046-18
Research Background
This research builds on the content from Frost & Sullivan’s recently published studies in the area of
business strategy and innovation:
NF9E-18 Executive Analysis of the Global Medium and Heavy Duty Truck Transmissions Market (2015)
NEC5-18 Strategic Outlook for Autonomous Heavy-duty Trucks (2015)
NF51-18 Executive Outlook of Hyundai’s Global Commercial Vehicle Market Activities (2015)
NF8D-18 Executive Analysis of Medium-Duty and Heavy-Duty Value Truck Market in Select Emerging
Economies (2015)
NFAB-01 Executive Profiles of Key Truck Telematics Vendors—PART 1(2015)
NE05-18 Executive Outlook of the Global Medium- and Heavy-Duty Low-Cost Truck Market (2015)
P895-18 Strategic Analysis of Chinese Light, Medium, and Heavy-Duty Commercial Truck Market (2015)
ND32-18 Strategic Analysis of Global City Truck Market (2014)
NC9A-18 Commercial Vehicles 2020 Vision (2014)
NE67-18 Executive Impact Analysis of Big Data in the Trucking Industry (2014)
This study is also supplemented by ongoing interactions with vehicle manufacturers and suppliers in the
area of business strategy and innovation.
Source: Frost & Sullivan

17. 17K046-18
Research Methodology
Research Methodology: Frost & Sullivan’s research services are based on secondary and primary
research data.
Secondary Research: Extraction of information from existing reports and project material within the
Frost & Sullivan database includes data and information gathered from technical papers, specialty
magazines, seminars, and Internet research.
Primary Research: More than 15 interviews have been conducted over the phone by senior consultants
and industry analysts with original equipment suppliers, regulation authorities, and distributors. Primary
research accounts for 80% of the total research.
Note on Images: Images have been used with permission of the copyright holder.
Source: Frost & Sullivan

18. 18K046-18
Key OEMs Compared in This Study
Group CV OEMs
Daimler
Mercedes-Benz, Freightliner,
Western Star, Mitsubishi Fuso,
Thomas Built, Bharat Benz,
Setra
Volvo
Volvo, UD, Renault, Mack,
Eicher
Volkswagen
Volkswagen Commercial
Vehicles, MAN, Scania, SEAT
BAIC Foton Motor
Navistar
Navistar, IC bus, SST Truck
Company
Hyundai Motor
Group (HMG)
Hyundai, Kia, Sichuan
Hyundai Motor Company
Group CV OEMs
Isuzu Isuzu
Dongfeng DFM, Dongfeng Peugeot-Citreon
Paccar DAF, Kenworth, Peterbilt
Ford Ford
Tata Tata Motors
CNH Iveco, Iveco Astra, Heuliez Bus
Toyota Toyota, Daihatsu, Hino
CNHTC Sinotruck
FAW FAW
The following OEM groups are compared in this study:
Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Definitions and Segmentation

20. 20K046-18
Reference
Vehicle
Classification Definition GVWR Typical Applications
MD
Medium-duty
truck
Represents all
types of mid-size
trucks
Class 47
GVWR ≥6T and <16T
Pick-up and home delivery, beverage,
utility, parcel delivery, highway hauling,
construction, refuse, and ambulance.
Definitions and Vehicle Segmentation
Trucks are classified light, medium, or heavy, based on a combination of GVWR and vocation. This study
addresses the MD truck segments only.
Commercial Vehicle Market: Definitions and Segmentation, Global, 2015
Vehicle
Platform
A medium-duty truck platform can be defined as ‘a single set of common design, engineering,
and manufacturing elements shared between different products/brands/marquees within the
same organization or between organizations, aimed at balancing customer expectations and
product development costs.’ Key mechanical components that can constitute a platform are:
engine, transmission and related linkages, chassis, suspension system, axles, braking
systems/wheel-end.
Global
Platform
Within the study, when we refer to a global platform, it means either ‘a platform on which
the OEMs have themselves defined and developed their global medium-duty truck for
various regions carrying the same marquee name’ or ‘same truck rebadged with different
brand name.’
Source: Frost & Sullivan

21. 21K046-18
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or users. Quantitative market information is based primarily on interviews and therefore is
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No part of it may be circulated, quoted, copied or otherwise reproduced without the written approval of Frost & Sullivan.
Legal Disclaimer

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Appendix

23. 23K046-18
Abbreviations and Acronyms Used
A/C Air Conditioning
ABS Anti-Braking System
AMT Automated Manual Transmission
ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nations
AT Automatic Transmission
CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
EU European Union 28
GHG Green House Gas
GVWR Gross Vehicle Weight Ratio
HCV Heavy-Duty Vehicle
HD Heavy Duty
HDT Heavy-Duty Truck
LDT Light-Duty Truck
LDV Light-Duty Vehicle
MD Medium Duty
MDT Medium-Duty Truck
MT Manual Transmission
NA North America
Next 11
Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria,
Pakistan, the Phillipines, Turkey,
South Korea, Vietnam, Bangladesh
NG Natural Gas
NHTSA
National Highway, Transportation and
Safety Authority
OEM Original Equipment Manufacturer
RoW Rest of the World
TRIAD US, Canada, Western Europe, Japan
V2I Vehicle to Individual
V2V Vehicle to Vehicle
VIO Vehicle in Operation
Source: Frost & Sullivan

24. 24K046-18
• Talk to an analyst
• Arrange a Growth Workshop
• Explore the Growth Excellence Matrix 2.0
Learn More—Next Steps
Source: Frost & Sullivan

25. 25K046-18
Market Engineering Methodology
One of Frost & Sullivan’s core deliverables
is its Market Engineering studies. They are
based on our proprietary Market
Engineering Methodology. This approach,
developed across the 50 years of
experience assessing global markets,
applies engineering rigor to the often
nebulous art of market forecasting and
interpretation.
A detailed description of the methodology
can be found here.
Source: Frost & Sullivan