To NCKU Compound Semiconductor Class
A 2008 Year End Update on Current
Semiconductor Industry Eco-System
Heads-Up! Open Your Business Eyes
The Driver for CMOS Technology Evolution
The Semiconductor Industry Eco-system
Episode 1: CMOS scaling: Challenge & Opportunity
Episode 2: SEMI Market & Economic Status Diagest
Episode 3: What Options Besides CMOS ?
Briefing: New Business Start Up Process
Opportunity Recognition Part 1
Deregulation (cell phone) or Regulation (health care)
Unequal Development Pace (80’s hw/sw)
Many fragmented industries
Service Shift (fi, 30% to 80% in 25 years)
Early in Product Lifecycle
Opportunity Recognition Part 2
High Potential Ventures Criteria
Structure (Sellers fragmented)
Market Size (Large ,but not too big, and Growing)
Growth Rate (Accelerating)
Market Capacity (Demand not filled)
Market Share Attainable
Reducing Cost Conditions are BAD
Profits after tax (High)
Time to Breakeven (Less then 2 years)
Return of Investment (ROI) is 25% and up
Capital Requirements (Low)
Gross Margins (High)
Opportunity Recognition Part 3
High Potential Ventures Criteria
Exit Mechanisms Nurtured by Founders
Capital Market Context - Timing
Competitive Advantage Issues
Degree of Control over Prices
Recent ADC Performance Needs for Important
Design complexity (from desired function diversity) and Power
Consumption are two key trends for the design of SOC
Processing performance is the most important differentiator.
Multiple Data Processing Engines (DPEs) to enhance the performance
Software enabled functional flexibility.
Longer lifecycle and broader application area.
Desire High Performance-to-Power ratio.
The trend indicate the power consumption substantially exceeds the
Shorter product life cycle due to dedicated functions.
A Example : Intel CPU evolution on
- Ion increase increase performance
- Ioff reduction reduce leakage
CMOS Scaling bring in lots of new materials into
The recent CMOS scaling barriers overcomed by
Strain Silicon and HKMG.
CMOS Scaling will continue to 22nm (2012 available) ,
III-V material play more role in the scaling.
CMOS Scaling likely to end in 22nm and followed by
nano wire devices, optical connect , carbon nanotube.
Episode 2: Digest of Economic Status &
It is interesting to note that every time there was a two-year double-digit decline in capital spending, the
following year showed a double-digit increase.
Moreover, in every instance in the past, in the second year after the two-year decline, a 59% or greater surge in
capital spending took place!
If the post 2008/2009 time period follows the historical pattern, 2010 will show a double-digit capital
spending increase, which correlates nicely to IC Insights’ current forecast for a 15% increase in spending in
IC market revenue will be flat to minus in 2009,
despite the shipment continue to grow.
Optoelectronic revenue growth is outpacing the
IC Capital Equipment Business will highly impacted
in 2009. But likely to rebound in 2010.
FPD Capital Equipment Business has worst outlook.
Start-Up Capital Formation Process
2. Kitchen Table
3. Founder’s Commitment
4. Pullout from Employer
5. Business Plan Creation
6. Filling Management Team
7. Raising Seed Capital
8. Closing Capital & Incorporation
9. Finding a Home
11. Secondary Capital Rounds
12. Launch First Product
13. Raise Working Capital
14. Initial Public Offer
Participants in Capital Formation Process
1. Person with Idea (Founder)
2. Key Followers (Buddies, Founders)
3. Business Consultant
4. Lawyers (General, Patent)
5. Corporate Accounting Firm (Acct, Taxes)
6. Venture Capital
8. Equipment Leasing Company
9. Commercial Banker
10. Real Estate (Broker, Landlord)
11. Key Suppliers (Tel, Insurance, Furniture, Utility …)
12. Recruiters (Contingent, Retained)
13. Public Relation Firm
14. Media (Local, National, Industry)
16. Wall Street Analysts (Stock Exchange Company, Investment Bank)
17. General Public
Recommended Steps in Plan Stages
3. Decide Channel
4. Marketing Plan
6. Build Rapport with
7. Business Plan
8. Iron out Operation Idea
9. Sell or Funding
Summary: 10 Lessons for High Tech
1. Pick right industry
2. Identify valuable opportunities
3. Fit strategy to industry
4. Target technological transitions
5. Focus on an underserved market niche
6. Identify customer needs
7. Project market growth
8. Cross the chasm
9. Prevent imitation
10. Manage risk and uncertainty
A Normal Distribution of Adopters…
adopt new products
In the middle
of the adoption cycle
Few customers adopt Few customers adopt
new products at first new products at the
ed of the
Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards
13.5% 34% 34% 16%
Two standard deviations One standard deviation Mean adopter One standard deviation after the man
before the mean before the mean
Leads to S-Shaped Market Growth
Slowing of market growth
Percent Acceleration of market
Low rate of
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Who Succeeds at Innovation?
Lesson #8: Cross the Chasm
Entrepreneurs often find the
majority of adopters to be a
large enough market, but have
a hard time transitioning to
Number of ha
Entrepreneurs often find it
easy to sell to innovators and
early adopters, but can’t sell
enough to make the business
Innovators Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards
CMOS Scaling has create new material / process
technology challenge, so as business opportunity,
the continue growth is inevitable.
Besides CMOS, the Optoelectronic / MEMs / Discrete
devices enter into rapid growth phase.
2009 will be a low year and consensus of economic
rebound likely in 2010.
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