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2009 Ncku Talks Semi Industry Business Update
 

2009 Ncku Talks Semi Industry Business Update

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A invited talk in NCKU University Graduated School compound semiconductor class in 2009. The time right upon finalcial storm.

A invited talk in NCKU University Graduated School compound semiconductor class in 2009. The time right upon finalcial storm.

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    2009 Ncku Talks Semi Industry Business Update 2009 Ncku Talks Semi Industry Business Update Presentation Transcript

    • To NCKU Compound Semiconductor Class A 2008 Year End Update on Current Semiconductor Industry Eco-System James Chu 2009.01.05
    • Outlines Heads-Up! Open Your Business Eyes The Driver for CMOS Technology Evolution The Semiconductor Industry Eco-system Episode 1: CMOS scaling: Challenge & Opportunity Episode 2: SEMI Market & Economic Status Diagest Episode 3: What Options Besides CMOS ? Briefing: New Business Start Up Process Summary
    • Heads-Up! Open Your Business Eyes
    • Opportunity Recognition Part 1 General Deregulation (cell phone) or Regulation (health care) Unequal Development Pace (80’s hw/sw) Many fragmented industries Service Shift (fi, 30% to 80% in 25 years) Off-shore Manufacturing Early in Product Lifecycle Missing Niches
    • Opportunity Recognition Part 2 High Potential Ventures Criteria Industry Issues Structure (Sellers fragmented) Market Size (Large ,but not too big, and Growing) Growth Rate (Accelerating) Market Capacity (Demand not filled) Market Share Attainable Reducing Cost Conditions are BAD Economic Issues Profits after tax (High) Time to Breakeven (Less then 2 years) Return of Investment (ROI) is 25% and up Capital Requirements (Low) Gross Margins (High)
    • Opportunity Recognition Part 3 High Potential Ventures Criteria Harvest Issues Value-Added Potential Exit Mechanisms Nurtured by Founders Capital Market Context - Timing Competitive Advantage Issues Degree of Control over Prices Entry Barriers Team
    • IC Chips System Requirement : the Driver
    • Episode 1: CMOS scaling: Challenge & Opportunity
    • Consumer Stationary Performance Trends
    • Consumer Stationary Design Complexity Trends
    • Consumer Stationary Power Consumption Trends
    • Consumer Portable Process Performance Trend
    • Consumer Portable Design Complexity Trend
    • Consumer Portable Power Consumption Trend
    • Recent ADC Performance Needs for Important Product Classes
    • Preliminary Summary Design complexity (from desired function diversity) and Power Consumption are two key trends for the design of SOC Consumer chips. Stationary Device: Processing performance is the most important differentiator. Multiple Data Processing Engines (DPEs) to enhance the performance Software enabled functional flexibility. Longer lifecycle and broader application area. Portable Device: Desire High Performance-to-Power ratio. The trend indicate the power consumption substantially exceeds the performance requirements. Shorter product life cycle due to dedicated functions.
    • A Example : Intel CPU evolution on - Ion increase increase performance - Ioff reduction reduce leakage
    • From Intel IDF 2008
    • From Intel IDF 2008
    • From Intel IDF 2008
    • CMOS Scaling : Challenge and Opportunity
    • CMOS built on Silicon Material Engineering Curtsey of ©Robert Simonton
    • From Intel IDF 2008
    • Scaling Drive the Transistor Engineering Complexity
    • Scaling Drives the Need for New Materials © 2008 Muhammad Hussain/Twan Bearda SPCC Tutorial Short Course 2008
    • From Intel IDF 2008
    • ITRS (International Technology Roadmap of Semiconductor) 2008 Year End Update
    • From Intel IDF 2008
    • From Intel IDF 2008
    • From Intel IDF 2008
    • From Intel IDF 2008
    • From Intel IDF 2008
    • From Intel IDF 2008
    • From Intel IDF 2008
    • From Intel IDF 2008
    • TSMC Technology roadmap
    • From Intel IDF 2008
    • Preliminary Summary CMOS Scaling bring in lots of new materials into manufacturing process. The recent CMOS scaling barriers overcomed by Strain Silicon and HKMG. CMOS Scaling will continue to 22nm (2012 available) , III-V material play more role in the scaling. CMOS Scaling likely to end in 22nm and followed by nano wire devices, optical connect , carbon nanotube.
    • Episode 2: Digest of Economic Status & Forecast
    • From Intel IDF 2008
    • Electronic Industry Independence
    • It is interesting to note that every time there was a two-year double-digit decline in capital spending, the following year showed a double-digit increase. Moreover, in every instance in the past, in the second year after the two-year decline, a 59% or greater surge in capital spending took place! If the post 2008/2009 time period follows the historical pattern, 2010 will show a double-digit capital spending increase, which correlates nicely to IC Insights’ current forecast for a 15% increase in spending in 2010.
    • From Strategic Marketing Associates
    • WW Capital Spending – by Company
    • The Forecast
    • WW Electronics Sales Growth will be Flat, if not Negative, from 2008 to 2009.
    • Inventories are on the Rise
    • VLSI’s CPPI Predicts Another Negative Year
    • Preliminary Summary IC market revenue will be flat to minus in 2009, despite the shipment continue to grow. Optoelectronic revenue growth is outpacing the crowd. IC Capital Equipment Business will highly impacted in 2009. But likely to rebound in 2010. FPD Capital Equipment Business has worst outlook.
    • Episode 3: What besides CMOS ?
    • Optoelectronics, Sensor, and Discrete Report (O-S-D Report).
    • Regional Market Shares of O-S-D Products
    • Reminding : the Business Eyes
    • Start-Up Capital Formation Process 1. Idea 2. Kitchen Table 3. Founder’s Commitment 4. Pullout from Employer 5. Business Plan Creation 6. Filling Management Team 7. Raising Seed Capital 8. Closing Capital & Incorporation 9. Finding a Home 10. Start-Up 11. Secondary Capital Rounds 12. Launch First Product 13. Raise Working Capital 14. Initial Public Offer
    • Participants in Capital Formation Process 1. Person with Idea (Founder) 2. Key Followers (Buddies, Founders) 3. Business Consultant 4. Lawyers (General, Patent) 5. Corporate Accounting Firm (Acct, Taxes) 6. Venture Capital 7. Board 8. Equipment Leasing Company 9. Commercial Banker 10. Real Estate (Broker, Landlord) 11. Key Suppliers (Tel, Insurance, Furniture, Utility …) 12. Recruiters (Contingent, Retained) 13. Public Relation Firm 14. Media (Local, National, Industry) 15. Customers 16. Wall Street Analysts (Stock Exchange Company, Investment Bank) 17. General Public
    • Recommended Steps in Plan Stages 1. Idea 2. Research 3. Decide Channel 4. Marketing Plan 5. Strategy 6. Build Rapport with Suppliers 7. Business Plan 8. Iron out Operation Idea 9. Sell or Funding
    • The Lessons
    • Summary: 10 Lessons for High Tech Entrepreneurs 1. Pick right industry 2. Identify valuable opportunities 3. Fit strategy to industry 4. Target technological transitions 5. Focus on an underserved market niche 6. Identify customer needs 7. Project market growth 8. Cross the chasm 9. Prevent imitation 10. Manage risk and uncertainty
    • Technological Transitions Performance n io Disruptive at ov innovation n in t al en em cr In Time
    • A Normal Distribution of Adopters… Most customers adopt new products In the middle of the adoption cycle Number Of Adopters In Time Period Few customers adopt Few customers adopt new products at first new products at the ed of the adoption cycle Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards Innovators 13.5% 34% 34% 16% 2.5% Two standard deviations One standard deviation Mean adopter One standard deviation after the man before the mean before the mean
    • Leads to S-Shaped Market Growth Slowing of market growth 80 60 Percent Acceleration of market Adopting growth 40 Low rate of market growth 20 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Time
    • Who Succeeds at Innovation? Performance Start-ups s m fir d ishe bl ta Es Time
    • Lesson #8: Cross the Chasm Entrepreneurs often find the majority of adopters to be a large enough market, but have a hard time transitioning to serving them Th eC Number of ha sm Adopters in Time Period Entrepreneurs often find it easy to sell to innovators and early adopters, but can’t sell enough to make the business worthwhile Early Innovators Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards Time
    • Summary CMOS Scaling has create new material / process technology challenge, so as business opportunity, the continue growth is inevitable. Besides CMOS, the Optoelectronic / MEMs / Discrete devices enter into rapid growth phase. 2009 will be a low year and consensus of economic rebound likely in 2010.