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Seca seminar 2013 dn v - harald gundersen

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  • 1. Harald Gundersen20-06-2013LNG feasibility studyRetrofitting to meet new ECA requirements
  • 2. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.LNG feasibility study20-06-2013Ship owners must respond to gradually stricter regulations tostay in business, while dedicated ECAs are introduced22010: Sulphur < 1.0%2015: Sulphur < 0.1%ECA SOX REQUIREMENTSBuild after 2016: NOX Tier III, -80%ECA NOX REQUIREMENTS2020 / 2025*: SOX < 0.5%Build after 2011: NOX Tier II, -20%* Date TBD pending 2018 review– but 2020 will apply in EU watersGLOBAL REQUIREMENTS
  • 3. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.LNG feasibility study20-06-2013There are currently 74 confirmed LNG fuelled ship projectsglobally3Updated 15.04.2013Excluding LNG carriers and inland waterway vessels
  • 4. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.LNG feasibility study20-06-2013LNG consumption in Norway from 2004 - 20174Kilde: NOx-fondet
  • 5. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.LNG feasibility study20-06-2013Status for the Norwegian LNG market574%19%7%Drivstoff solgt i Norge tilmaritimt bruk 2011**Målt per energimengde63%13%24%Drivstoff forventet solgt i Norgetil maritimt bruk 2016*MGO/MDOHFOLNGBarentsNaturgass5 %Gasnor50 %Skangass20 %SkagerakNaturgass3 %Naturgass Møre3 %AGA3 %Leverandør ikkeavklart16 %Suppliers of LNG in Norway from 2016Kilde: NOx-fondet
  • 6. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.LNG feasibility study20-06-20136LNG?SCRUBBER?MGO?
  • 7. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.LNG feasibility study20-06-2013DNV has assessed the financial attractiveness and technicalrisks of available ECA compliance measures for the case ship7The case ship1. Switching to low sulphur fuel2. Installing a scrubber system3. Converting to Dual Fuel engines andinstalling LNG tanksEvaluated solutions LOA: 130-150 m Ship type: Container ship Cargo capacity: 700-900 TEU
  • 8. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.LNG feasibility study20-06-2013The total cost of DF conversion for the case ship is estimatedto $6,5 - 8,3 million8Cost estimate for DF configuration with 300 m3 LNG tankCost estimate for DF configuration with 600 m3 LNG tank6.52.52.61.40 1 2 3 4 5 6 70% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%Main engine DF conversionLNG tank + gas equipmentYard costTOTAL COSTSCosts [MUSD]8.33.03.91.40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%Main engine DF conversionLNG tank + gas equipmentYard costTOTAL COSTSCosts [MUSD]
  • 9. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.LNG feasibility study20-06-2013Cumulated costs for 55% ECA operation9-$5$0$5$10$15$202015 2020 2025 2030Cumulative Total Cost [MUSD] compared to baseline with HFOBaseline (HFO)Realcosts[2012MUSD]ENGINE AND OPERATIONEmission compliance ECASOXTime in ECA 55%Installed power ca. 8 000 kWBaseline HFOFINANCIALDiscount rate 8%Investment decision RetrofitTax regime NoneFUEL PRICEHFO 2012 Europe levelMGO 2012 Europe levelLNGHFO equivalent and2012 European gas+ distribution cost
  • 10. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.LNG feasibility study20-06-2013Cumulated costs for 55% ECA operation10-$5$0$5$10$15$202015 2020 2025 2030Cumulative Total Cost [MUSD] compared to baseline with HFOFuel SwitchBaseline (HFO)Realcosts[2012MUSD]ENGINE AND OPERATIONEmission compliance ECASOXTime in ECA 55%Installed power ca. 8 000 kWBaseline HFOFINANCIALDiscount rate 8%Investment decision RetrofitTax regime NoneFUEL PRICEHFO 2012 Europe levelMGO 2012 Europe levelLNGHFO equivalent and2012 European gas+ distribution cost
  • 11. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.LNG feasibility study20-06-2013Cumulated costs for 55% ECA operation11-$5$0$5$10$15$202015 2020 2025 2030Cumulative Total Cost [MUSD] compared to baseline with HFOFuel SwitchScrubberBaseline (HFO)Realcosts[2012MUSD]ENGINE AND OPERATIONEmission compliance ECASOXTime in ECA 55%Installed power ca. 8 000 kWBaseline HFOFINANCIALDiscount rate 8%Investment decision RetrofitTax regime NoneFUEL PRICEHFO 2012 Europe levelMGO 2012 Europe levelLNGHFO equivalent and2012 European gas+ distribution cost
  • 12. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.LNG feasibility study20-06-2013Cumulated costs for 55% ECA operation12-$5$0$5$10$15$202015 2020 2025 2030Cumulative Total Cost [MUSD] compared to baseline with HFOFuel SwitchScrubberLNG High price w/600 m3 tankBaseline (HFO)Realcosts[2012MUSD]LNG reference price w/600 m3 tankENGINE AND OPERATIONEmission compliance ECASOXTime in ECA 55%Installed power ca. 8 000 kWBaseline HFOFINANCIALDiscount rate 8%Investment decision RetrofitTax regime NoneFUEL PRICEHFO 2012 Europe levelMGO 2012 Europe levelLNGHFO equivalent and2012 European gas+ distribution cost
  • 13. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.LNG feasibility study20-06-2013Cumulated costs for 55% ECA operation13-$5$0$5$10$15$202015 2020 2025 2030Cumulative Total Cost [MUSD] compared to baseline with HFOFuel SwitchScrubberLNG High price w/600 m3 tankBaseline (HFO)Realcosts[2012MUSD]LNG reference price w/600 m3 tankLNG High price w/300 m3 tankLNG reference price w/300 m3 tankENGINE AND OPERATIONEmission compliance ECASOXTime in ECA 55%Installed power ca. 8 000 kWBaseline HFOFINANCIALDiscount rate 8%Investment decision RetrofitTax regime NoneFUEL PRICEHFO 2012 Europe levelMGO 2012 Europe levelLNGHFO equivalent and2012 European gas+ distribution cost
  • 14. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.LNG feasibility study20-06-2013Cumulated costs for 100% ECA operation14-$5$0$5$10$15$202015 2020 2025 2030Cumulative Total Cost [MUSD] compared to baseline with HFOFuel SwitchScrubberLNG High price w/600 m3 tankBaseline (HFO)Realcosts[2012MUSD]LNG reference price w/600 m3 tankLNG High price w/300 m3 tankLNG reference price w/300 m3 tankENGINE AND OPERATIONEmission compliance ECASOXTime in ECA 100%Installed power ca. 8 000 kWBaseline HFOFINANCIALDiscount rate 8%Investment decision RetrofitTax regime NoneFUEL PRICEHFO 2012 Europe levelMGO 2012 Europe levelLNGHFO equivalent and2012 European gas+ distribution cost
  • 15. © Det Norske Veritas AS. All rights reserved.LNG feasibility study20-06-2013Safeguarding life, propertyand the environmentwww.dnv.com15