Ontario construction labour assessment 2012 2020

  • 69 views
Uploaded on

A presentation from the province of Ontario on the Assessment of Construction Labour Markets from 2012 to 2020

A presentation from the province of Ontario on the Assessment of Construction Labour Markets from 2012 to 2020

More in: Business
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Be the first to comment
    Be the first to like this
No Downloads

Views

Total Views
69
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0

Actions

Shares
Downloads
3
Comments
0
Likes
0

Embeds 0

No embeds

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
    No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. CONSTRUCTION LOOKING FORWARD An Assessment of Construction Labour Markets from 2012 to 2020 ONTARIO
  • 2. Construction Looking Forward Ontario Contents §  §  §  §  §  §  §  Highlights and Introduction Economic Assumptions Investment Outlook: Building Trends and Major Projects Construction Labour Requirements The Available Workforce Market Rankings and Mobility Conclusion Note: Definitions, methodology and detailed tables are available at www.constructionforecasts.ca
  • 3. Introduction Construction Looking Forward 2012 §  Reports on the state of construction labour markets in Ontario from 2012 to 2020 are based on: •  a current macroeconomic and demographic scenario •  a current inventory of major construction projects •  the views and input of provincial LMI committees
  • 4. Highlights §  Construction has been a leading employment-generating industry for more than 20 years in Ontario, and is poised to remain so for the foreseeable future. §  Construction employment for the trades and occupations tracked by the CSC will expand by almost 44,000 workers (14 percent) across the scenario period, with 14,000 (9 percent) in residential construction and 30,000 (17 percent) in non-residential construction. •  The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) dominates employment growth in Ontario, accounting for 70 percent, or 30,000 of the 44,000 new jobs created. §  Although the estimated 44,000 new jobs are just half compared to the additions to the workforce recruited over the past eight years, investments in support systems and human resource planning may be tested as the next round of building projects unfold from 2012 to 2020.
  • 5. Highlights §  At the provincial level, labour requirements are evenly dispersed across the scenario period, but changes in regional markets are very different and attention shifts to distinct regional patterns. §  Peaks and troughs punctuate cycles in major utility, industrial and infrastructure projects in the GTA, and the Southwest and Northern regions of the province. §  Recruiting faces increased challenges from the growing loss of skilled and experienced workers, as 77,000 workers are expected to retire. §  To address expansion and replacement demand requirements, industry will need to recruit an estimated 120,000 new workers to construction.
  • 6. Economic Environment §  It is assumed that the federal and provincial governments will begin to reduce both current and capital expenditures in an effort to eliminate deficits. §  The short- to medium-term outlook for major trading partners is weaker. §  In the long-term, economic growth strengthens in both major trading partners and Canada, as deficits and debt come under control. §  Canadian output growth will average around 2 percent across the 2012–2020 period. §  In the medium term, inflation and interest rates remain low, but rise in the long term as growth strengthens. §  The Canada-U.S. exchange rate remains strong in the short term, but falls toward its underlying value over the scenario period.
  • 7. Economic Environment Commodity prices §  Oil prices recovered in 2010 and into 2011, but are expected to weaken somewhat in 2012 and 2013 in line with weaker world growth, and then recover thereafter in line with stronger economic growth. §  Natural gas prices remain weak because of expected increases in shale gas and then start to strengthen after 2015. §  Agricultural prices continue upward over the scenario period reflecting a tightening of these markets. §  Metals and mineral prices continue to trend upward, reflecting the growth of the world economy driven to a large extent by China and Asia.
  • 8. Investment Outlook Construction by sector §  Residential investment slows in 2012, but increases in 2013, with a modest rate of growth sustained through to 2020. §  Renovation expenditures increase steadily, but moderately. §  Non-residential activity rises across the scenario period – driven by large mining and utility projects.
  • 9. Residential Construction Investment ($2002 millions) 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 New housing Renovations 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 0 2003 2,000
  • 10. Housing Starts and Household Formation (000s) 90,000 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 Housing starts Household formation 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 40,000 2003 45,000
  • 11. Non-residential Construction ($2002 millions) 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Building Engineering 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 0 2003 2,000
  • 12. Investment Outlook for the Province – Major Projects Northern  Ontario   -­‐  mining  (Ring  of  Fire)   -­‐  u0li0es   Central  Ontario   -­‐  light  rail  transit   -­‐  infrastructure   -­‐  Pan  American  Games   -­‐  u0li0es   Greater  Toronto  Area   -­‐  u0li0es  (new  nuclear  and  refurbishments,  transmission)   -­‐  Pan  American  Games   -­‐  Metrolinx   -­‐  other  infrastructure   Eastern  Ontario   -­‐  light  rail  transit   -­‐  infrastructure   -­‐  u0li0es   Southwest  Ontario   -­‐  Windsor  parkway/bridge   -­‐  nuclear  refurbishments   -­‐  infrastructure   -­‐  wind  farms/solar  
  • 13. Investment Outlook for the Province Ontario: selected major projects §  The CSC tracks major projects underway or planned for construction in the province. While there are too many to list here, following are a few examples: •  Mining o  Eagles Nest (Noront Resources) o  Black Thor (Cliffs Natural Resources) o  Copper Cliff nickel smelter emission reduction (Vale) o  Copper Cliff nickel mine replacement/expansion (Vale) o  Clarabelle Mill (Vale) o  Detour Lake (Detour Gold Corp.)
  • 14. Investment Outlook for the Province Ontario: selected major projects •  Utilities o  OPG (various projects, including new nuclear and refurbishments) o  Bruce Power nuclear refurbishments o  wind/solar projects •  Pan American Games o  Athlete’s Village o  Aquatics Centre o  Velodrome o  various other venues
  • 15. Investment Outlook for the Province Ontario: selected major projects •  Infrastructure (various projects across Ontario) o  Oakville Hospital (other heath care facilities across the province) o  Ottawa light rail transit system o  Waterloo light rail transit system §  §  §  §  Windsor–Essex Parkway Detroit River International Crossing (DRIC) Pearson International Airport rail link subway stations upgrades/extensions •  Infrastructure Ontario o  long list of projects underway and proposed •  Metrolinx o  various transit projects
  • 16. Building Construction ($2002 millions) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Industrial Commercial and institutional 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 0 2003 2,000
  • 17. Engineering Construction ($2002 millions) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Highway and bridge Other engineering 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 0 2003 2,000
  • 18. Construction Labour Requirements Employment scenario for Ontario, 2012–2020 §  Steady recovery in construction across both residential and nonresidential sectors leads economic recovery in Ontario: •  non-residential rises by 14 percent •  residential rises by 10 percent §  Construction activity is concentrated in the GTA •  engineering projects lead all sectors •  industrial, commercial and institutional rises steadily §  More volatile housing and major project cycles dominate in the Central, Eastern, Southwest and Northern regions.
  • 19. Construction Employment in Ontario History 400,000 Scenario 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 Non-residential Residential Total 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 0 2007 50,000 2006 Number of workers 350,000
  • 20. Construction Labour Requirements Employment scenario for the regions, 2012–2020 §  Residential recovery resumes in 2013 and a modest rate of growth is sustained through 2020. §  Non-residential work in the GTA dominates all new jobs in Ontario. §  Growth in industrial, commercial and institutional building bolsters activity across the regions. §  The timing of big engineering and industrial projects tightens labour markets at different times in specific regions: •  GTA – 2015 to 2018 •  Northern – 2012 and 2013 •  Southwest – 2015
  • 21. Residential Construction Investment and Employment Index for Ontario 180 170 150 140 130 120 110 100 New residential investment Residential employment 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 80 2007 90 2006 Index 2009 =100 160 Residential renovation and maintenance
  • 22. Non-residential Construction Investment and Employment Index for Ontario 160 150 130 120 110 100 Industrial, commercial and institutional construction investment Engineering investment Non-residential employment 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 80 2007 90 2006 Index 2009 =100 140
  • 23. The Available Workforce – Ontario Supply-side adjustments §  Unemployment rates reached record low levels 2007. §  Unemployment in 2009 exceeded long-term rates. §  Recovery in 2010 and 2011 brought conditions in most markets back to more normal historical levels. §  Sustained requirements over the scenario period keep rates below long-term normal or average levels.
  • 24. The Available Workforce – Ontario Supply-side adjustments §  Supply side, 2012 to 2020: •  labour force requirements rise by 43,000 in response to expansion demand •  estimated retirements total 77,000 workers •  expansion plus replacement demand is estimated at 120,000 workers •  total demand requirements are expected to be partially offset by an estimated 60,000 first-time new entrants into the construction workforce (comprises local residents aged 30 and younger) •  industry will need to attract an additional 60,000 workers as net in-mobility rises to balance labour demand requirements
  • 25. Change in Construction Labour Force in Ontario 25,000 Total  change  in  labour  force  N  =     New  entrants  N    +  Net  in-­‐mobility  N   -­‐  Re:rements  N   20,000 Number of workers 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 -5,000 -10,000 -15,000 2011 2012 Net in-mobility Retirements 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 New entrants Total change in labour force
  • 26. The Available Workforce – Ontario Supply-side adjustments §  Mobility between regions will not meet peak requirements. •  Net-in mobility is positive in all regions in most years. §  The largest demands for in-mobility are over the near term for Northern Ontario and across most of the scenario period for the Greater Toronto Area.
  • 27. Labour Market Rankings §  Market conditions are assessed by combining four measures into a ranking: •  excess supply (unemployment) •  annual change in employment •  net in-mobility as a percent of the labour force •  industry consultations §  Rankings describe conditions on a scale from 1 to 5.
  • 28. Labour Market Rankings 5 Qualified workers are not available in local or adjacent markets. Competition is intense. 4 Qualified workers are generally not available in local and adjacent markets. Recruiting may extend beyond traditional sources and practices. 3 Qualified workers in the local market may be limited by short-term increases in demand. Established patterns of recruiting are sufficient. 2 Qualified workers are available in local or adjacent markets. 1 Qualified workers are available in local markets. Excess supply is apparent. Workers may move to other markets.
  • 29. Labour Market Rankings for Ontario Trades and occupations 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Boilermakers 3 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 Bricklayers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Carpenters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Concrete finishers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Construction estimators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Construction managers 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics 3 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 Contractors and supervisors 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Crane operators 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Drillers and blasters 2 4 3 1 4 3 3 2 3 2 Electricians (including industrial and power system) 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Elevator constructors and mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Floor covering installers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Gasfitters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Glaziers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 3 4 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 3 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 3 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3
  • 30. Labour Market Rankings for Ontario Trades and occupations 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics 2 3 4 5 5 4 4 4 3 1 Insulators Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators and fitters 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Painters and decorators Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, and lathers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Plumbers 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics Residential and commercial installers and servicers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Residential home builders and renovators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Roofers and shinglers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Sheet metal workers Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 3 2 Tilesetters 4 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 Trades helpers and labourers 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 Truck drivers 3 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Welders and related machine operators 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
  • 31. Construction Labour Requirements – Greater Toronto Area GTA scenario, 2012–2020 §  Employment gains in the GTA lead all regions. §  GTA dominates provincial growth, adding 30,000 construction jobs – 70 percent of all new construction employment in Ontario. •  Non-residential employment rises by 24,000. •  Residential employment rises by 6,000. §  Employment requirements are driven by: •  large Industrial and electrical utility projects, including nuclear •  steady rise in commercial and institutional-related building, including the Pan American games, public transportation infrastructure and health services-related projects
  • 32. Construction Employment in the Greater Toronto Area History 180,000 Scenario 160,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 Non-Residential Residential Total 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 0 2007 20,000 2006 Number of workers 140,000
  • 33. Residential Construction Investment and Employment Index for the Greater Toronto Area 200 History Scenario 160 140 120 Residential renovation and maintenance New residential investment Residential employment 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 80 2007 100 2006 Index 2009 =100 180
  • 34. Residential Construction Employment Index for Selected Trades in the Greater Toronto Area 150 History Scenario 130 120 110 100 Carpenters Plasterers, drywall installers Residential home builders and renovators Trades helpers 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 80 2007 90 2006 Index 2009 =100 140
  • 35. Non-residential Construction Investment and Employment Index for the Greater Toronto Area 240 History Scenario 200 180 160 140 120 Engineering investment Industrial, commercial and institutional construction investment Non-residential employment 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 80 2007 100 2006 Index 2009 =100 220
  • 36. Non-residential Construction Employment Index for Selected Trades in the Greater Toronto Area 330 History Scenario 230 180 Boilermakers Construction millwrights Electricians Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 80 2007 130 2006 Index 2009 =100 280
  • 37. Non-residential Construction Employment Index for Selected Trades in the Greater Toronto Area 160 History Scenario 140 130 120 110 100 Heavy equipment operators Concrete finishers Trades helpers 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 80 2007 90 2006 Index 2009 =100 150 Truck drivers
  • 38. The Available Workforce – Greater Toronto Area Supply-side adjustments §  Supply side, 2012 to 2020: •  labour force requirements rise by 32,000 in response to expansion demand •  estimated retirements total 31,000 workers •  expansion plus replacement demand is estimated at 63,000 workers •  total demand requirements are expected to be partially offset by an estimated 25,000 first-time new entrants into the construction workforce (comprises local residents aged 30 and younger) •  industry will need to attract an additional 38,000 workers as net in-mobility rises to balance labour demand requirements
  • 39. Change in Construction Labour Force in the Greater Toronto Area Total  change  in  labour  force  N  =     New  entrants  N  +  Net  in-­‐mobility  N   -­‐  Re:rements  N   10,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 Net in-mobility Retirements 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 -6,000 2012 -4,000 2011 Number of workers 8,000 New entrants Total change in labour force
  • 40. Labour Market Rankings – Greater Toronto Area Trades and occupations 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Boilermakers 3 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 3 1 Bricklayers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Carpenters 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Concrete finishers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 Construction estimators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Construction managers 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 1 Contractors and supervisors 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 Crane operators 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 Drillers and blasters 2 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 2 1 Electricians (including industrial and power system) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 Elevator constructors and mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Floor covering installers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Gasfitters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Glaziers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 2
  • 41. Labour Market Rankings – Greater Toronto Area Trades and occupations Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 3 1 Insulators Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators and fitters Painters and decorators Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, and lathers Plumbers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Residential and commercial installers and servicers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Residential home builders and renovators 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 Roofers and shinglers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Sheet metal workers Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers Tilesetters 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 3 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Trades helpers and labourers 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 Truck drivers 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 Welders and related machine operators 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 2
  • 42. Construction Labour Requirements – Central Ontario Central Ontario scenario, 2012–2020 §  Central Ontario is on a steady growth track that was interrupted by the economic downturn. The construction scenario is characterized by the following: •  a steady, but drawn out, recovery in residential construction fuelled by growth in household formation •  an increase in non-residential activity spurred by the coinciding rise in population growth •  steady rise in overall construction employment, increasing by 18 percent over the scenario period •  balanced gains across the residential and non-residential sectors, which rise by 19 percent and 17 percent respectively
  • 43. Construction Employment – Central Ontario 120,000 History Scenario 80,000 60,000 40,000 Non-residential Residential Total 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 0 2007 20,000 2006 Number of workers 100,000
  • 44. Construction Labour Requirements – Central Ontario Central Ontario scenario, 2012–2020 §  Investment in new housing rises modestly through 2014 before accelerating in the latter half of the scenario period. •  Residential employment rises by 7,300. •  Sixty (60) percent of gains are concentrated in the final four years of the scenario period. §  Growth in industrial, commercial and institutional construction (ICI) offsets declining engineering investment. •  Overall, non-residential construction employment grows by 7,500 over the scenario period. •  Employment gains are greatest for trades and occupations involved with ICI construction.
  • 45. Residential Construction Investment and Employment Index for Central Ontario 180 History Scenario 170 150 140 130 120 110 100 New residential investment Residential employment 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 80 2007 90 2006 Index 2009 =100 160 Residential renovation and maintenance
  • 46. Non-residential Construction Investment and Employment Index for Central Ontario 160 History Scenario 150 130 120 110 100 Non-residential employment Industrial, commercial and institutional construction investment Engineering investment 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 80 2007 90 2006 Index 2009 =100 140
  • 47. Non-residential Construction Employment Index for Selected Trades in Central Ontario 160 History Scenario 150 130 120 110 100 Carpenters Construction managers Plasterers, drywall installers Trades helpers 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 80 2007 90 2006 Index 2009 =100 140
  • 48. The Available Workforce – Central Ontario Supply-side adjustments §  Supply side, 2012 to 2020: •  labour force requirements rise by 14,000 in response to expansion demand •  estimated retirements total 20,000 workers •  expansion plus replacement demand is estimated at 34,000 workers •  total demand requirements are expected to be partially offset by an estimated 17,000 first-time new entrants into the construction workforce (comprises local residents aged 30 and younger) •  industry will need to attract an additional 17,000 workers as net in-mobility rises to balance labour demand requirements
  • 49. Change in Construction Labour Force in Central Ontario Total  change  in  labour  force  N  =     New  entrants  N  +  Net  in-­‐mobility  N   -­‐  Re:rements  N   5,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 Net in-mobility New entrants Retirements 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 -3,000 2012 -2,000 2011 Number of workers 4,000 Total change in labour force
  • 50. Labour Market Rankings – Central Ontario Trades and occupations Boilermakers 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 Bricklayers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 Carpenters 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 Concrete finishers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 Construction estimators 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 Construction managers 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics 3 3 3 3 2 4 3 3 3 2 Contractors and supervisors 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 Crane operators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Drillers and blasters 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 Electricians (including industrial and power system) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Elevator constructors and mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Floor covering installers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Gasfitters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Glaziers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
  • 51. Labour Market Rankings – Central Ontario Trades and occupations 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Insulators Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators and fitters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Painters and decorators Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, and lathers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Plumbers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 Residential and commercial installers and servicers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 Residential home builders and renovators 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Roofers and shinglers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Sheet metal workers Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 4 3 3 3 2 Tilesetters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Trades helpers and labourers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 Truck drivers 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Welders and related machine operators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3
  • 52. Construction Labour Requirements – Eastern Ontario Eastern Ontario scenario, 2012–2020 §  Dragged down by a decline in residential activity, Eastern Ontario is the weakest of the regions. •  Eastern Ontario faired best over recent history, not suffering a decline through the 2009 recession. •  An extended residential down cycle beginning in 2013 results in an erosion of residential employment for six consecutive years. o  Employment does not begin to recover until 2018. •  Non-residential activity is sustained near current levels over the scenario period buoyed by steady commercial and institutional construction and ongoing maintenance.
  • 53. Construction Employment in Eastern Ontario History 45,000 Scenario 40,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Non-residential Residential Total 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 0 2007 5,000 2006 Number of workers 35,000
  • 54. Construction Labour Requirements in Eastern Ontario Eastern Ontario scenario, 2012–2020 §  Residential employment declines by 3,000 (14 percent) over the scenario period. •  Trades and occupations involved in new residential construction incur bigger employment losses relative to those involved in renovation and maintenance work. §  Non-residential employment rises by 1,000 (4 percent) over the same period. §  A net decline in overall employment of 2,000 leaves 2020 employment down about 5 percent when compared to the 2011 level.
  • 55. Residential Construction Investment and Employment Index for Eastern Ontario History 130 Scenario 110 100 90 80 New residential investment Residential renovation and maintenance Residential employment 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 60 2007 70 2006 Index 2009 =100 120
  • 56. Residential Construction Employment Index for Selected Trades in Eastern Ontario 120 History Scenario 100 90 80 Carpenters Plasterers, drywall installers Residential home builders and renovators Trades helpers 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 60 2007 70 2006 Index 2009 =100 110
  • 57. Non-Residential Construction Investment and Employment Index for Eastern Ontario 140 Scenario History 120 110 100 Industrial, commercial and institutional construction investment Engineering investment Non-residential employment 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 80 2007 90 2006 Index 2009 =100 130
  • 58. The Available Workforce – Eastern Ontario Supply-side adjustments §  Supply side, 2012 to 2020: •  labour force requirements decrease by 2,650 in response to a decline in residential construction activity •  estimated retirements total 9,500 workers •  replacement demand less the decline in the labour force leaves an estimated 6,900 jobs •  total demand requirements will be offset by the estimated 7,000 first-time new entrants expected to enter the construction workforce (comprises local residents aged 30 and younger)
  • 59. Change in Construction Labour Force in Eastern Ontario 2,500 Total  change  in  labour  force  N  =     New  entrants  N  +  Net  in-­‐mobility  N   -­‐  Re:rements  N   1,500 1,000 500 0 -500 -1,000 New in-mobility New entrants Retirements 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 -2,000 2012 -1,500 2011 Number of workers 2,000 Total change in labour force
  • 60. Labour Market Rankings – Eastern Ontario Trades and occupations 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Bricklayers 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Carpenters 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 Concrete finishers 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 Construction estimators 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 Construction managers 3 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 4 Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics 1 3 5 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 Contractors and supervisors 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Crane operators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Electricians (including industrial and power system) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Elevator constructors and mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Floor covering installers 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 Gasfitters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Glaziers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
  • 61. Labour Market Rankings – Eastern Ontario Trades and occupations Insulators 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators and fitters 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Painters and decorators 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, and lathers 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 Plumbers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Residential and commercial installers and servicers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Residential home builders and renovators 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 Roofers and shinglers 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Sheet metal workers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers 2 2 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Tilesetters 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 Trades helpers and labourers 3 3 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 Truck drivers 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Welders and related machine operators 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
  • 62. Construction Labour Requirements – Southwest Ontario Southwestern Ontario scenario, 2012–2020 §  The Southwestern region suffered the steepest economic decline through the 2008–2009 recession. §  Major utilities and civil infrastructure-related projects have been the primary drivers of a modest recovery in construction employment. §  The start of a new housing cycle in 2012 contributes to the recovery in overall construction employment. §  Overall, construction employment rises 21 percent to peak levels in 2017 before retreating to just shy of 2007 pre-recessionary levels by the end of the scenario period.
  • 63. Construction Employment in Southwest Ontario History 45,000 Scenario 40,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Non-Residential Residential Total 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 0 2007 5,000 2006 Number of workers 35,000
  • 64. Construction Labour Requirements – Southwest Ontario Southwest Ontario scenario, 2012–2020 §  The current level of construction activity is sustained by major nonresidential infrastructure, highway, bridge, electrical utility and civil engineering projects. Many of these projects wind down in 2013. §  A second wave of major engineering and heavy construction projects starts in 2015, coinciding with peak demands related to new housing activity. §  The local construction workforce may not be able to meet the coinciding residential and non-residential demands in 2015.
  • 65. Residential Construction Investment and Employment Index for Southwest Ontario 330 History Scenario 230 180 New residential investment Residential employment 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 80 2007 130 2006 Index 2009 =100 280 Residential renovation and maintenance
  • 66. Non-residential Construction Investment and Employment Index for Southwest Ontario 220 Scenario History 180 160 140 120 Industrial, commercial and institutional investment Engineering investment Non-residential employment 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 80 2007 100 2006 Index 2009 =100 200
  • 67. Non-residential Construction Employment Index for Selected Trades in Southwest Ontario Scenario History 160 150 Index 2009 =100 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 Concrete finishers Heavy equipment operators Trades helpers 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 60 2006 70 Truck drivers
  • 68. The Available Workforce – Southwest Ontario Supply-side adjustments §  Supply side, 2012 to 2020: •  labour force requirements rise by 3,200 in response to expansion demand •  estimated retirements total 8,200 workers •  expansion plus replacement demand is estimated at 11,400 workers •  total demand requirements are expected to be partially offset by an estimated 6,600 first-time new entrants into the construction workforce (comprises local residents aged 30 and younger) •  industry will need to attract an additional 4,800 workers as net in-mobility rises to balance labour demand requirements
  • 69. Change in Construction Labour Force in Southwest Ontario 5,000 Total  change  in  labour  force  N  =     New  entrants  N  +  Net  in-­‐mobility  N   -­‐  Re:rements  N   4,000 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 Net in-mobility New entrants Retirements 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 -3,000 2012 -2,000 2011 Number of workers 3,000 Total change in labour force
  • 70. Labour Market Rankings – Southwest Ontario Trades and occupations Boilermakers 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2 2 2 3 5 3 1 1 2 3 Bricklayers 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 Carpenters 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 2 Concrete finishers 3 3 3 3 5 4 3 2 3 3 Construction estimators 2 4 2 2 5 4 4 2 3 2 Construction managers 3 4 3 3 5 5 4 3 3 2 Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics 1 1 3 5 5 3 1 2 3 3 Contractors and supervisors 2 4 2 2 5 4 4 2 3 3 Crane operators 3 5 2 2 5 4 3 2 3 3 Drillers and blasters 3 4 1 1 5 4 3 1 2 2 Electricians (including industrial and power system) 2 2 3 4 5 3 2 3 3 3 Elevator constructors and mechanics 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 Floor covering installers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Gasfitters 2 2 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 Glaziers 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 4 5 1 1 5 4 3 1 2 2 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 3 4 1 1 5 4 3 1 2 3
  • 71. Labour Market Rankings – Southwest Ontario Trades and occupations Industrial instrument technicians and mechanics 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2 1 4 5 5 2 1 1 3 3 Insulators Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators and fitters Painters and decorators Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, and lathers Plumbers 2 2 3 4 5 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 5 4 3 2 3 3 3 4 3 2 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 5 4 3 3 3 3 Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 Residential and commercial installers and servicers 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 Residential home builders and renovators 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 2 Roofers and shinglers 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Sheet metal workers Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers Tilesetters 2 2 3 4 5 3 2 3 3 3 2 1 2 3 5 3 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 Trades helpers and labourers 3 4 3 3 5 4 4 3 4 3 Truck drivers 3 5 1 2 5 4 3 1 3 3 Welders and related machine operators 3 5 1 2 5 4 3 1 3 3
  • 72. Construction Labour Requirements – Northern Ontario Northern Ontario scenario, 2012–2020 §  Northern Ontario is a small and remote market driven by big nonresidential projects with labour requirements that exceed the local workforce. •  Resource and other engineering projects drive employment to peak levels by 2013. •  Residential activity follows non-residential construction. Related employment gains peak in 2015. •  Most trades experience tight labour conditions through 2013. •  The start-up of known infrastructure, mining and resource projects related to the Ring of Fire area are concentrated from 2010 to 2012 and scheduled for completion by 2016.
  • 73. Construction Employment in Northern Ontario 40,000 Scenario History 35,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Non-residential Residential Total 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 0 2007 5,000 2006 Number of workers 30,000
  • 74. Residential Construction Investment and Employment Index for Northern Ontario 310 History Scenario 210 160 New residential investment Residential employment 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 60 2007 110 2006 Index 2009 =100 260 Residential renovation and maintenance
  • 75. Non-residential Construction Investment and Employment Index for Northern Ontario 280 Scenario History 260 220 200 180 160 140 120 Industrial, commercial and institutional investment Engineering investment Non-residential employment 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 80 2007 100 2006 Index 2009 =100 240
  • 76. The Available Workforce – Northern Ontario Supply-side adjustments §  Supply side, 2012 to 2020: •  labour force declines by 3,100 workers (in response to the anticipated decline in expansion demand after the 2013 peak, as some projects begin to wind down) •  estimated retirements total 7,600 •  estimated first-time new entrants into the construction workforce total 4,900 (comprises local residents aged 30 and younger) •  new entrants offset the demand requirements across the entire scenario; however, the aggregate conceals the following: o  11,000 workers from outside the local construction market will be required in the first three years of the scenario period o  these workers are expected to leave as the known projects wind down
  • 77. Change in Construction Labour Force in Northern Ontario 8,000 Total  change  in  labour  force  N  =     New  entrants  N  +  Net  in-­‐mobility  N   -­‐  Re:rements  N   4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 Net in-mobility New entrants Retirements 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 -6,000 2012 -4,000 2011 Number of workers 6,000 Total change in labour force
  • 78. Labour Market Rankings – Northern Ontario Trades and occupations 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Bricklayers 4 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 Carpenters 4 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 Concrete finishers 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 Construction estimators 4 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 Construction managers 3 5 5 5 4 2 1 1 1 1 Construction millwrights and industrial mechanics 4 5 5 3 1 1 1 2 3 3 Contractors and supervisors 4 5 5 3 1 1 2 2 3 3 Crane operators 4 5 5 2 1 1 1 3 3 3 Electricians (including industrial and power system) 4 5 5 2 1 1 1 3 3 3 Floor covering installers 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 4 5 5 2 1 1 2 3 3 3 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 4 5 5 3 1 1 2 3 3 3 Insulators 4 5 5 3 1 1 1 3 3 3
  • 79. Labour Market Rankings – Northern Ontario Trades and occupations Ironworkers and structural metal fabricators and fitters 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 4 5 5 3 1 1 2 3 3 3 Painters and decorators 3 3 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 Plasterers, drywall installers and finishers, and lathers 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 Plumbers 4 5 5 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 Refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics 4 5 5 4 2 1 3 3 3 3 Residential and commercial installers and servicers 3 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 Residential home builders and renovators 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 Roofers and shinglers 3 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 Sheet metal workers 4 5 5 2 1 1 1 3 3 3 Steamfitters, pipefitters and sprinkler system installers 5 5 5 2 1 1 1 3 3 3 Trades helpers and labourers 4 5 5 4 3 1 2 2 2 2 Truck drivers 4 5 5 2 1 1 1 3 3 3 Welders and related machine operators 4 5 5 2 1 1 1 3 3 3
  • 80. Labour Market Rankings and Mobility §  Rankings in Ontario and other markets suggest the potential for mobility across: •  sectors •  industries •  regions By Sector §  Weakness in residential markets suggest that some trades might move to the non-residential sector.    
  • 81. Labour Market Rankings and Mobility Potential for mobility by region §  Utility, mining and other resource projects are planned for several regions and could potentially draw key trades out of Ontario to (for example): •  Newfoundland and Labrador: 2012–2014 •  Saskatchewan: 2012–2013 •  Manitoba: 2012–2015 •  Alberta: 2012 and 2015–2018
  • 82. Labour Market Hot Spots
  • 83. Conclusions §  The 2012 Construction Looking Forward scenario for Ontario anticipates strong gains in both expansion and replacement demands. §  Construction labour markets in Ontario need to be assessed by region and occupation. §  Non-residential construction leads the recovery and expansion, with employment gains concentrated in the GTA. §  Requirements are shifting to large mining, utility and transportation projects. §  Labour markets tend to be tight and unemployment low due to demographics. This requires some in-mobility in all regions to meet construction requirements. §  Industry attention and investment in training, promotion and retention is essential.
  • 84. Our Thanks To. . . The production of Construction Looking Forward 2012−2020 would not have been possible without the valuable input from the following organizations: §  §  §  §  §  §  §  §  §  §  §  §  §  §  §  §  §  §  §  §  §  §  Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation Christian Labour Association of Canada Construction Employers Coordinating Council of Ontario Construction Labour Relations Association of Ontario Council of Ontario Construction Associations Electrical Power Systems Construction Association General Presidents’ Maintenance Committee for Canada Infrastructure Ontario Labourers’ International Union of North America Merit OpenShop Contractors Association of Ontario Metrolinx Ontario Construction Secretariat Ontario Home Builders’ Association Ontario Pipe Trades Council Ontario Power Generation Ontario Provincial Building Trades Council Ontario Sheet Metal Contractors Association Ontario Road Builders’ Association Progressive Contractors Association of Canada RESCON Service Canada Toronto Construction Association
  • 85. About the CSC The Construction Sector Council (CSC) is a national industry-led organization committed to the development of a highly skilled workforce that will support the future needs of Canada’s construction industry. This report is part of the CSC’s Labour Market Information Program. It is available in both official languages and can be obtained electronically at www.constructionforecasts.ca and www.csc-ca.org. Timely construction forecast data is also available online at www.constructionforecasts.ca. Create customized reports on a broad range of selected categories within sector, trade or province covering up to 10 years.
  • 86. For more information contact: Construction Sector Council Phone: 613-569-5552 Fax: 613-569-1220 info@csc-ca.org March 2012