移动互联网产业分析 梁文静
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移动互联网产业分析 梁文静

移动互联网产业分析 梁文静

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移动互联网产业分析 梁文静 移动互联网产业分析 梁文静 Presentation Transcript

  • PapayaMobile Overview 梁文静 PapayaMobile Inc
  • 第13期:《移动互联网社交网络、社交游戏之技术架 构和市场分析》-木瓜移动专场 www.LAMPER.cn QQ群: 83304912 http://weibo.com/lampercn
  • Papaya no longer makes games2010.01 – 300万2010.01 – 5500万Game Sessions: 1,150,000,000 (10亿+)Pmails: 274,000,000 (3亿)Posts on circles:2,851,645 (300万)Goods Transactions: 14,701,527 (1500万) View slide
  • 用户分布情况 View slide
  • 页面浏览量
  • PART 1移动产业之 社交游戏用户分析
  • 木瓜平台社交游戏用户分析
  • 全球范围用户分析平均41%的用户在US,UK,过去三个月里玩过social game并且一周内至少玩15分钟,一周至少玩6个小时的活跃用户从10年到11年长了一倍
  • 平均女性用户占55%,而男性用户站45%,而在英国女性用户占到58%
  • 30岁以下的用户从19%涨为30%,50岁以上用户由38%降为32%在UK的用户比起US普遍年轻
  • 超过2/3的用户玩社交游戏至少有一年,将近一半的用户玩两年或以上玩至少一年的活跃用户有82%,44%玩3年以上玩两年以上的用户,UK占到38%儿美国51%
  • 一天玩几次的用户11年占到41%,而活跃用户占到70%US用户比UK用户“经常性”多,44%:36%
  • 为什么喜欢玩社交游戏,为了有趣和刺激的占到57%,竞争43%,解压42%24%,将近1/4玩是为了成就或是为了可以接触到和平台上的其他人活跃用户对竞争方面的社交游戏更感兴趣
  • 用户质量,82%以上没用做过弊使用bot或作弊在UK 11%的概率大于US 7%
  • 付真钱的用户从10年到11年由14%涨为26%赚与消费虚拟币的活跃用户占到74%,并且在各项里都最高US普遍高于UK
  • 超过一半的用户会花时间在社交平台上玩游戏,39%会和其他人一起玩除了玩游戏,用户也会和好友聊天及发表评论活跃用户是花最多时间在社交游戏上的
  • 社交游戏获得渠道及方式,50%来自广告推广,37%来自朊友推荐,口口相传US用户直接收到推荐为40%,比UK31%多分别40%,37%都和friend有关推广,推荐,收到在线好友邀请均为主要方式,分别占50%,40%,37%
  • 活跃用户avid user,在这份报告中是以一周至少玩6个小时以上定义的,虽与鲸鱼名字不同,但却本质相同,都为核心用户,这类用户无论从时间,金钱,社交等各方面都贡献最大 讨论与分享
  • PART 2移动产业之 社交游戏市场分析
  • 中国移动游戏市场总揽 TV based PC based Mobile phone/pad based单机游戏 端游(downloadable network WAP games (Java/C)– 中国市场固有的瓶颈 games) – 流量及支付多受运营商所控中国– 由于其他类型游戏的介入而使市 – 80% MMORPG – 移动控制了一半的市场 场缩小 – 运营是关键 – 高峰时期市场规模 ~¥3B – Top 6 player, >¥1B yearly revenue – 腾讯,空中,掌趣,斯凯, etc – 市场增长滞慢 App games – 多切入点智能电视游戏 页游(web games) – CP 所得分成高– 相关技术的兴起 – 兴起于2008 并发展快速h – 游戏内部广告– 产链多被运营商受控 – VC 2007-2009活跃参与 – CP 多掌控用户 – 社交游戏:多依靠平台 – MMO: 运营重要性 – 单机/flash 游戏 HTML5 games – 技术尚未成熟 (浏览器) – 开放平台,门槛低 – App games 潜在转换 For Internal Use Only 27
  • 国内手游市场规模For Internal Use Only 28 Source:易观国际,2011 年第4 季度中国手机游戏市场行业数据,中国手机游戏市场趋势预测2010-2013
  • 移动游戏三大分类 WAP App HTML5Game access •Operator(移动梦 •App store/market •Search 网) •Social platform •Portal/browser •Portal(UC, 3G, etc) •In-game •Social platform •Pre-install referral/ads •Pre-install •SearchPayment •Operator •Apple store •Least regulated •Social platform •Social platform •Tech not ready •Android-ChinaUser ownership • Mainly operator •App store/market •Social platform •Social games •Social games •Social platformCP profit sharing • 30% • 70% for app store •Close to web gamesContent •Low quality •High quality •Mid-high qualitydifferentiation •Little difference •Much difference •Much differenceKey challenge •Access points •Payment •TimelineFor Internal Use Only 29
  • 移动应用游戏的分类 Heavy MMO RPG/SLG: 二 战、江湖行 Strategy/SL Gambling: Zynga poker 动作 G: 体育 三国塔防 SLG: Crime 射击 坦克大战 city, iMobsters 竞赛 僵尸 街游Single 音乐 Social Puzzle: Cut ropes Birds Social games: farmvile, zoo, 地铁总动员 胡莱三国,奇迹之城 Card and board Light For Internal Use Only 30
  • 游戏类别典型代表 HardcorePremium Free Casual For Internal Use Only 31
  • 中国iOS前20名的游戏Category # of games GamesCard and Board -Puzzle 3 Zombie,Where is my waterAction 4 Infinity, Asphalt,Fruit Ninja, King of fightersStrategy/SLG 1 三国塔防Social games 4 胡莱三国,开心水族箱,摩尔庄园,SmurfsSLG online games 3 掌上三国, Japan life, Galaxy empire,Gambling 1 Texas pokerMMO RPG/SLG 4 二战风云,神仙道,Dungeon Hunter, 江湖行• 挺多成功手游是web game的拓展版For Internal Use Only 32
  • VC支撑的中国移动游戏公司 Cross GameCompany Game type Investors PC/Mobile categories顽石 Yes App MMO/Social 挚信资本/成为/IDG资本胡莱 Yes App Social 红杉,腾讯摩尔庄园(淘米) Yes App Social 启明,Saban capital博雅 Yes App Cards 红杉中国摩卡世界 Yes App Social/SLG 海纳亚洲恺英网络 Yes App Social/SLG 凯鹏华盈/经纬创投/清科创投Redatoms No App Music/SLG GSRAnimoca Yes App Social 英特尔投资TipCat Yes App Puzzle/action 红杉中国涂鸦移动 No App Social 凯鹏华盈/创新工场/清科创投木瓜移动 No App Social 凯旋创投/DCM梦龙移通 No App Action 达晨创投啪嗒游戏 Yes App Social 创新工场3G游游 No App Action/Puzzle 银泰资本/招商和腾盈趣信息 No App Puzzle 晨兴创投• 9 out of 15 companies offer games across PC browser and mobile platform• 10 out of 15 are social related gamesFor Internal Use Only 33
  • 移动游戏典型代表分类 Heavy 顽石 Redato m 梦龙 Redato 摩卡世 3G游游 m 界 TipCatSingle TipCat Social 胡莱 恺英 摩尔庄 啪嗒游 博雅 园 戏 木瓜移 盈趣信 涂鸦移 动 息 动 Animoca Light For Internal Use Only 34
  • 市场份额Keytone Ventures For Internal Use Only 35
  • 单机游戏 VS 社交游戏 Game profit Social games Console games Launch date TimelineFor Internal Use Only 36
  • Console games Social (web/mobile) # of package sales and 1. Life time revenue“Hit” definition revenue 2. User activity (DAU) 3-12 months for social gamesGame development cycle 24+ months 12-24 months for MMO $0.5-1M for social gamesGame development cost $10M or more $1M+ for MMO Package sales, mainly in theRevenue collection Operation intensive, ROI tuning each month first quarter
  • Zynga vs. EA/Blizzard Zynga as a reference (Q3-2011) Games DAUTexas poker 6,300,000Farm ville 7,300,000City ville 10,400,000Empire allies 3,200,000 Top 7 of 17-20 gamesWord w/ frieds 5,900,000 count for 75% of thePioneer trail 1,700,000 activityCastle ville 8,300,000 Total 58,000,000 Console game as a reference Q3-2011 Total 1M+ 1M+ seller Comments games seller % of total rev EA 322 99 74% 1/3 games count for 3/4 income Blizzard 285 43 74% 1/6 games count for 3/4 income For Internal Use Only 38
  • 几种主流流行趋势• 跨平台 • 成熟的产品及品牌影响力 • Ex. 胡莱, 二战风云, etc• 由一两款成功游戏引发出的类别 • 持续发布相似主题或类别游戏已保有用户活跃 • Ex. farm ville ,6 款多 “ville-style” 游戏• 复制一款成功游戏并发展为多款不同主题游戏 • 用同一引擎开发的多款性质不表只是主题不同的游戏 • Ex. Storm 8 发布的5 款游戏 (war, gunster, pets, racing, vampire) 核心都不变• 成功游戏开始尝试建社交平台 • 利用现有用户基础建立社交平台,像GREE的模式 • Ex. 胡莱社区, PAPAYA• 游戏开发者开始为HTML5做准备 • 发展技术使应用与HTML5 浏览器逐渐趋于融合For Internal Use Only 39
  • 支付及收入分成情况 Platform Studio Payment toolsFacebook 30% 70% FacebookTencent 0% 100% <¥100K/mon Tencent 30% 70% <¥1M/mon 50% 50% <¥10M/mon 60% 40% <¥30M/mon 70% 30% >¥30M/monRenren 52~44% 48%~56% Renren 1st year free if use SDKWeibo 30% 70% Weibo 1st year freeApple store 30% 70% AppleAndroid market 30% 70% OpenFor Internal Use Only 40
  • Social Gaming Market Social is Mobile * Source: Super Data Research
  • Social Gaming Market 社交网络的使 用率居最高, 占到45.7%,目 前排第一
  • Social Gaming Market 北美用户愿意购买 虚拟物品的游戏类 别排名,前四中和 social相关的占到 两项,免费游戏内 付费排名靠前
  • 一个月至少在社交平台上玩至少一款社交游戏的美国用户在11年达到6000多万,占到整个互联网用户中的27%,12年29%
  • Virtual Goods Growth 虚拟物品市场的增长 11年通过虚拟物品获得的收入 超6.5亿美元,12年8亿左右
  • Global Virtual Goods Market
  • Why Mobile Social Gaming?• Highly profitable business model low costs of development, customer acquisition (through social networks), and publishing (no physical product)• Lower risk R&D - social games can be rolled out much more quickly with smaller budgets and development teams. Since games are played as a service delivered over Internet, developers can utilize real-time customer activity to access and modify components of games throughout game’s life. Publisher can use data to decide whether to continue investing in a game or kill the project (reinforce winners and cut losses on losers). Average cost $550k vs $10m on console device• Zynga has no inherent advantage on Mobile – lack of dominating market share, lack of high quality content to drive acceptance• Xbox Live have proven that players want to play their games with other people $750 million in revene ($60/year subscription fee) why not on mobile?• Many console publishers are struggling to adapt to online/mobileKeytone Ventures For Internal Use Only 47
  • Thanks liangwenjing@papayamobile.com Sina weibo:papaya文静