Explains the nature and origins of present Syrian crises in the wider backdrop of the geopolitical and other faultlines of the Middle East..It then enumerates the stakes of the various global and regional powers and how they are reacting to the rapidly evolving situation.Ends with possible outcomes and suggests the best way forward.

1. Shahid Hussain Raja
Independent Consultant-Public Policy
www.shahidhussainraja.com
September 21,2015

2.  Introduction
 Middle East and Global Politics
 Nature and Origin of the Present Crises
 Global/Regional Powers Interests
 Likely Scenarios
 Way Forward
 Conclusion

3.  What is happening in Syria is a snapshot of what is
happening in the Middle East as a whole.
 Several conflicts, crises and wars presently going on in Syria
with deep rooted causes have serious implications for
regional stability and global security
 This presentation explains the nature, background and
possible future scenarios of the present Syrian crises and
their likely repercussions.
 You can read my detailed analysis about this crises in my
Amazon EBook by downloading it from my Author page
http://www.amazon.com/author/shahid_hussain_raja


4.  Middle East, is the cradle of several
civilizations and birth place of three world
religions
 Before discovery of oil, it was not considered
worth occupation, Its political significance
started with the construction of Suez Canal,
discovery of oil, creation of the Zionist state of
Israel and escalation of the Cold War

5.  Location-Whatever happens anywhere affect Middle East more than any
region. Similarly whatever happens here affects the global politics.
 Boundaries-Cartographic blunders of the colonial powers creating
arbitrary nation-states with artificial boundaries containing divided
loyalties
 Resources-Discovery of oil and building of Suez Canal increasing its
geo-economic and geo-political significance.
 Ideologies-Creation of Israel and onset of cold war, which introduced ideological
conflicts other than religion, making it the playground of the global powers
 Modernization-Modernization and globalization, stoking the aspiration of the
middle class without providing them adequate channels of expression and
empowerment in countries historically governed by authoritarian elites
 Underdevelopment-Overall sociopolitical and economic underdevelopment in the
backdrop of rapidly increasing population and unemployment, stalled state
building and nation building–a legacy of the colonialism and neo colonialism

6.  Modern Syria(Syrian Arab Republic) , with a total land mass of more than
185,000 sq km is a part of ancient Syria, located at the eastern end of the
Mediterranean Sea in southwestern Asia.
 It borders with Turkey(north),Iraq(east), Jordan(south) and
Israel/Lebanon(west).
 Around 1000 Sq km of Syrian territory in Golan Heights is under Israeli
occupation. Part of this annexed territory is claimed by Lebanon
 Hatay province, currently known as Iskenderun ,is under Turkish suzerainty
,awarded to Turkey by the French occupation forces. Syria does not
recognize this occupation
 There are two main rivers whose water apportionment is a bone of
contention between Turkey and Syria on the one hand and between Syria
and Israel on the other

8.  Because of its strategic location, Syria has been scene of internal
conflicts and external invasions throughout history
 It can boast of giving alphabets to the world and home of the
oldest Semitic language-Aramaic.
 Akkadians gave it the cultural foundations and racial stock- the first
dimension of the present crises
 Romans introduced the authoritarian governance structure,
improved by the Ottomans- second dimension of the crises
 Crusades sowed the first seeds of Arab nationalism, the defining
feature of modern day Middle East
 Islamic conquest introduced three crucial elements-religion, sects
and language-the third dimension of the present crises

9.  Ottoman rule resulted in creating the nationalistic feelings
in hitherto diverse communities and invited ,by default, the
penetration of European colonial powers-the fourth
dimension of the crises
 Colonial era gave it the boundaries as well as the
oppressive, extractive state apparatus-the fifth dimension
of the crises
 Post colonial era introduced cold war power politics,
ideological conflicts other than religion, resource scramble
and non-state violent actors

10.  Syrian population of 25 million growing @2.2 % per annum is
creating a huge educated and informed youth bulge, thanks to
compulsory primary education and spread of computer literacy.
 Life expectancy at 70 years and a literacy rate of above 70 % make
it a fairly modern country
 Racially,90 % of population is of Arab origin,9 % are Kurds and
remaining are Armenians, Turkmans and others
 Sectarian/religious divide-75 % are Sunni Muslims, 12% are Alawi
Shias,10 % Christians and 3% are Jews, Druze and others
 Arabic, the official language is mother tongue of the majority while
English and French are understood by the urbanites

11.  Republic in name, authoritarian in substance, Syria is a
microcosm of overall Middle Eastern governance style
 Heavy dominance of armed forces and security agencies in
policy formulation and implementation
 These institutions have over representation of Alawi Shias
who are only 12% of population
 Limited powers of 250 members strong uni-chamber
legislature, elected by universal suffrage of 18 years
 Centralized governance structure with one party rule
although 08 parties are represented in National Alliance
 Freedom of expression if you do not speak against the
government

12.  1967 War, when Israel finally established its supremacy in
the Middle East, annexed vast Arab territories including
Golan Heights and displaced millions of Palestinians from
their homeland, can be conveniently taken as the starting
point of origins of the present Syrian crises
 1973 war resulted in Egypt and Jordan concluding separate
peace treaties, isolating Syria which blamed Egypt for
treachery and vowed to continue the struggle against
Israeli hegemony
 It also exposed the vulnerability of US and its allies in
terms of their overdependence on Middle East oil and
necessitated establishing Israel as a regional power,
protecting friendly Arab states and ousting USSR as one
of the active players in ME-main drivers of present
crises

13.  Fall of Shah of Iran and the rise of anti American ruling elite in
Iran with threats of exporting anti Arab version of Islam added
another dimension to the jigsaw puzzle
 It became more complicated by the rise of Taliban in Afghanistan
after the withdrawal of USSR and concentration of anti west
militants there
 Fall of Saddam and of Taliban in Afghanistan resulted in an
unintended but crucial consequence- emergence of Iran as one
of the regional powers and the main rival of Israel in the Middle
East, to challenge American hegemony
 It was decided by USA and her allies that before sorting out Iran,
it is necessary to fix its allies namely Syria and Hezbollah which
may pose any threat to Israel when the final assault is made on
nuclear ambitious Iran

14.  Ideological Clash-Wider global ideological clash between capitalism and anti-
capitalist forces
 Regional Hegemony-War among aspirants of regional hegemony using
different factions as proxies
 Arab Spring-Public aspirations for good governance, empowerment and
better quality of life
 New cold war- among two old power blocks with China as a new entrant
 Resource Scramble-Scramble for water, hydrocarbon and other resources
 Ethno-religious Conflicts-Centuries old ethnic, religious and sectarian
conflicts adding fuel to the fire by the non state violent actors
 Nationalism-Nationalistic aspirations of suppressed and divided communities
for self determination

15.  USA/Europe
 Russia
 China
 Turkey
 Israel
 Iran
 Saudi Arabia

16.  Regime change with replacement of a pro-west and not an
overtly anti-Israel government in Syria
 Neutralizing Syria as a military force in ME and destruction
of its chemical weapons to pave way for Israeli hegemony
 Resource denial to China
 Expulsion of Russia from Syria, its last outpost in Middle
East as well as its military base
 Reducing threat of international terrorism to USA/West
 Neutralizing Hezbollah as a threat by cutting its supply
routes before taking on Iran-the final threat to Israel

17.  Maintaining its military bases and influence in its last
outpost in Middle East
 Enhancing credibility of new Russia, inheritor of
Soviet Empire, as a defender of its friends
 New cold war, checking American hegemony
 Stopping ‘regime change dramas’ which might be
enacted in its sphere of influence or in Russia itself
 Keeping ME in turmoil to keep the oil prices high and
ensuring Europe relies on Russia for its energy needs

18.  Presently China is only interested to ensure its
resource security
 However it is worried about the creeping total
hegemony of the Middle East by the USA
particularly after Libyan fiasco
 It is also interested to flex its muscle and to be
taken seriously as a future global power
 Also interested that USA and NATO forces are
bogged down in another conflict in a far off
battleground rather than pestering her near
home

19.  Regime replacement with a friendly Sunni regime
 Countering Iran ,its old rival in ME since millennia
 Flexing its muscles as a regional power
 Prelude to its entry to EU
 Settling three issues in one shot-water dispute,
Hatay annexation and Kurdish question

20.  Asserting its regional hegemony by destroying one of the best
fighting forces in ME and destroying its chemical weapons armory
 Finishing pro-Iranian regime before sorting out Iran
 Securing its security by fixing the main supporter of anti Israel
militant groups in ME i.e. Hezbollah by cutting off the land route of
Iranian assistance to them
 Regime change to have a neutral if not pro Israeli government in
Syria, who would conclude separate peace treaty with Israel like
Egypt and Jordan
 Sorting out three strategic issues in one go-Golan Heights, water
apportionment and Palestinian question

21.  Sectarian affinity with Shia regime, one which sided with
her during Iran-Iraq War
 Safeguarding its flanks by providing assistance to its
militant outposts in Lebanon and Gaza through the only
land route open to her via Syria
 Countering USA and Israel-its main foes
 Asserting its hegemony in ME- centuries' old rivalry with
Turkey and Saudi Arabia
 Ensuring that western forces land in Syria and get
bogged down there instead of sorting Iran out

22.  Regime change-having a Sunni regime in a
predominantly Sunni society
 Countering Iran-the Shia and the rival
 Fixing Shias,to contain its own restive Shia
community and appease its own Salafi clergy
 Siding with its old American/Western friends
 Old tribal war ,clad in sectarian colour

23.  Assad dug in with the help of internal tribal alliances, armed forces
and security apparatus support within Syria
 Externally, propped up due to diplomatic assistance by China which
do not want to repeat the Libyan fiasco while Russia is providing full
support to Assad- intelligence, weapons and finance
 Iran-physical support through Hamas and Hezbollah, weapons and
finances and intelligence, encouraging Kurds to outflank Turkey
 Russia, China and Iran are interested to prolong the fighting,
necessitating attack by NATO forces as it will give them some respite
from American machinations in their respective spheres of influence
and control as well as draining out USA energy

24.  USA and its allies are not interested in sending their troops in
Syria as it will result in full scale war which may bog them
down for a year or so, delaying their ultimate aim of fixing Iran
 Third war front against an Arab state will not go well with their
allies in the Middle East, turning many of the footloose
Jihadists against NATO forces, instead of their cooperation in
war against Iran
 USA is trying to oust Assad by supporting rebels i.e. foreign
forces, state as well as non-state, from every source by
providing intelligence ,weapons and finance, preparing for all
out attack once the regime shows signs of weakness, UNO or
no UNO

25.  Stalemate -business as usual, more of the same
 Violent Overthrow of Assad regime by the rebels
with the help of foreign forces
 Voluntary abdication of Assad as a result of UNO
or friendly selloff by Russia/Iran
 Last scenario is now becoming a reality as USA
and her allies will give concessions to Russia on
Ukraine after Russian open support to Assad

26.  Negotiated settlement through the auspicious of UNO and
backed by regional and global powers
 Withdrawal of all foreign forces, disbanding of armed groups
and destruction of chemical weapons
 Voluntary abdication of Assad and formation of an interim
government to suitably amend the constitution
 Holding of elections by independent election commission
supervised by the international observers
 Launching of Marshall Plan style development package to
rehabilitee the economy
 Start of comprehensive Middle East peace package

27.  Syria’s social composition, economic underdevelopment and political
governance in the backdrop of regional alignments is the root cause of
present crises
 These have been aggravated by the onslaught of Arab Spring, Iranian
ambitions for nuclear parity with Israel and resource scramble
 There is an urgent need to amicably solve the Syrian Crises by
the world powers as the situation is getting out of control
 Regime change by force will result in state collapse by default,
resulting in civil war which will invite regional powers and may
result in full scale war and ultimately Balkanization of the country
which is already showing signs of tearing at the seams
 Resultant economic mayhem, social unrest, capital flight, brain
drain and flood of internally displaced refugees will make the
situation even worse

28.  Thank you for viewing the presentation.
 If you have liked it, may I request you to
kindly download its EBook version on your
computer/tablet for only US $3.05
 It is available at the following URL
http://www.amazon.com/author/shahid_hussain_raja