City of johannesburg gds 2040 March 2011

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Context Setting by Shahid Solomon and Harry Dugmore

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City of johannesburg gds 2040 March 2011

  1. 1. Standing on the shoulders of giantsKey insights from:•The Presidency Scenarios 2025: “The future we chose?” (published 2008)•The Dinokeng Scenarios – Three futures for South Africa (published 2009) The Gauteng 2055 Development Strategy (Gauteng province in 2009) The State of African Cities 2010: Governance, Inequality and Urban Land Markets(UN-Habitat 2010) World Trade Report 2010 (WTO, 2010) World Development Indicators 2010 (World Bank 2010) Africa in 2050 (Institute of Security Studies, 2011) World Economic Situation and Prospects 2011 (UN 2011) Shell Global Scenarios to 2025 (Shell 2007) Global Tends 2025: a transformed world (National Intelligence Council USA2007)
  2. 2. Four global driversThe Networked Century: from „each one,reach one‟, to „each one reach all‟.The Thirsty century: the great ResourceCrunch: Carbon, Water, Waste.The African Century: thriving in the greatglobal recalibrationThe Trading Century: Gearing up forGlobalisation 4.0.
  3. 3. The Networked Century6,899,614,715…. the consensus best estimate for globalpopulation as on 15 February 2011.5,282 ,000,000… the best calculation of global mobilesubscriptions at the end of 20102,084,000,000 …. number of internet users end of 2010
  4. 4. The Networked Century
  5. 5. Two thirds of Africans have cellphones by 2012; 80% have easy access
  6. 6. The Networked CenturyConnectivitycosts in Africaare still
  7. 7. The Networked Century
  8. 8. The Networked Century
  9. 9. The Networked Century 1 in 6 – the number of marriages of people who met through the internet
  10. 10. The Networked CenturyTwobillion –thenumberof DOUBLEYoutube Thevideos 2009viewed figures!EACHDAY
  11. 11. The complete Top 15 mostvisited websites by SouthAfricans1 ) Google SA2 ) Facebook3 ) Google4 ) Yahoo5 ) YouTube6 ) Wikipedia7 ) Gumtree8 ) Wikipedia9 ) Blogger10 ) Twitter11 ) Windows Live12 ) News2413 ) Standard Bank14 ) ABSA15 ) WordPress
  12. 12. The Networked CenturyWhich country had the highestYouTube viewership in Africa in2010?
  13. 13. The Thirsty century
  14. 14. The Thirsty century
  15. 15. The Thirsty century
  16. 16. Carbon crunches, water, waste
  17. 17. The Thirsty century
  18. 18. 11.09 7.66 Energy emissions per capita, 2000 (tonnes CO2/capita) 6.91 4.13 2.40 2.04 1.13 0.86 Source: IEA (with thanks to INCITE)
  19. 19. For South Africa, hotter, drier,thirstier, in a world where carbon ismore controlled and energy iseverywhere expensive. How to meetthese challenges?
  20. 20. The African Century
  21. 21. Global Population Figures28
  22. 22. 25 most populous African countries292025, 2015, 2007 Nigeria (220m), Ethiopia (130m), Egypt (100m), the DRC (110m) and South Africa (50m) will make up 25% of the population of Africa by 2025. The other 48 countries will make up about 1.5billion people. Sudan, Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda will all have 50m PLUS people, i.e. be higher than SA by 2025, even though we are currently well ahead of them in 2011.
  23. 23. 31
  24. 24. The Trading CenturyProportion of global GDPderived from trade in goodsand services 1962 to 2010
  25. 25. The Trading Century
  26. 26. The Trading Century
  27. 27. Africa rising
  28. 28. The Trading Century Micro 10% Very Small 12%Contribution to GDP Small 16% Medium and Large 62% Unspecified Medium to Large 2% 26% Micro 33% Contribution to employment Small 16% Very Small 23% Source: the DTI(Ann Rev of Small business in SA 2003)
  29. 29. Four global driversThe Networked Century: from „each one,reach one‟, to „each one reach all‟.The Thirsty century: the great ResourceCrunch: Carbon, Water, Waste.The African Century: thriving in the greatglobal recalibrationThe Trading Century: Gearing up forGlobalisation 4.0.
  30. 30. The Cone of Probability
  31. 31. What will shape Johanesburg‟s future?• The Four Global Drivers• The Centrality Driver: centrality in Southern Africa: logistical, economic, cultural
  32. 32. The City Management Driver• Urban transformation (influx, capacity) and quality of life
  33. 33. The Gauteng 2055 Trajectory
  34. 34. Plausible long-term outcomes 2015 - 2015 - 2025 2025 2015 - 2015 - 2025 2025
  35. 35. Plausible Alternatives1. The Networked City : Will Johannesburg bebeating Drum of the New African NetworksOR a Digital Guerrilla Base?2.The Resource Crunch: Awash in SustainableEnergy and Recycled Water OR Mired insaline black outs?3. Africa Rising: Afro-Centric OR Eccentric?
  36. 36. Plausible AlternativesKey Questions:4. Globalisation 3.0: Knowledge Capital ORWarehouse of Foreign Goods5. Centrality : Heart of the Southern African CityRegion Archipelago OR Decaying Citadel?6. Urban Management >Transforming at Pace OR Overtaken by Events? >City for All OR City of Slums, Glitz and Gunpowder?
  37. 37. Is Johannesburg ready to:Open up to real time networks? Affordable and accessible broadband Developing social media as a key to e-government, i.e. opening up the NetworkSociety Developing real-time responsiveness. Attracting on line energy and partnerships
  38. 38. Is Johannesburg ready to:Face the Resource Crunch ? Paying for the future now Embracing alternative energy and recycling Going even bigger on public transport Green Technology Promotion Involving consumers through Public Education
  39. 39. Becoming a moreCompact City
  40. 40. Is Johannesburg ready to:To become a social escalator that enables broad based upward mobility? Local Resource Centres Development Support Portal SMME & Informal Sector support Skills Exchange Supportive Social Network
  41. 41. Is Johannesburg ready to:Embrace a new age of Afro-centricity ?o Stronger relationship with Africa andBRICSoVoice of migrant populations (localand international)
  42. 42. Projects could include: Broadening and deepening African city-city partnerships and coalitions Investing in a more inclusive Arts andCulture
  43. 43. Offering world class urban lifestyle choices
  44. 44. Is Johannesburg ready to:Become the cornerstone of a truly competitive Global City Region? Connecting deeply to cross border and city region economic, spatial and logistics planning
  45. 45. Projects Could Include:Getting the Basics Right Consolidating core service deliveryChampioning Globally Competitive Sectors Business Process Outsourcing Financial Services Value chainsAir/rail/road logistics hub and inland port
  46. 46. Becoming a trueKnowledge Capital
  47. 47. Is Johannesburg ready to:Getting an Elephant to dance? A clear and attainable long term vision? An effective strategic framework? A responsive, flexible and learning organisation? A “Best in The World” (BIW) Team? Build vibrant partnerships at all levels?
  48. 48. DiscussionThank you!

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