2013   07 putting wales and sw england - john borkowski
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×
 

2013 07 putting wales and sw england - john borkowski

on

  • 239 views

The Severn Estuary Forum is a key annual event in its eighth year and hosted by the Severn Estuary Partnership: an independent, estuary-wide initiative, involving all those interested in the ...

The Severn Estuary Forum is a key annual event in its eighth year and hosted by the Severn Estuary Partnership: an independent, estuary-wide initiative, involving all those interested in the management of the estuary, from planners to port authorities, fishermen to farmers.

This year’s Forum was opened by the Lord Mayor of Gloucester and supported by CIWEM. It focussed on a number of diverse topics, including the upper estuary; renewable energy possibilities; a review of the Severn Estuary Flood Risk Management Strategy; an overview of the operations and maintenance of the Severn River Crossings; Local Enterprise Partnerships; The Bristol Deep Sea Container Terminal; proposals for a Severnside Airport and Fisheries amongst others.

These engaging and exciting events are intended for all interested in learning about the latest research and policy developments dealing with the Severn Estuary and its future, and always guarantee a lively and informative day of presentations and talks. They offer a unique opportunity to learn from others, share ideas and participate in the management of the Severn Estuary.

Statistics

Views

Total Views
239
Views on SlideShare
239
Embed Views
0

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0

0 Embeds 0

No embeds

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Microsoft PowerPoint

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

2013   07 putting wales and sw england - john borkowski 2013 07 putting wales and sw england - john borkowski Presentation Transcript

  • Putting Wales and SW England on the Aviation Map Improving Air Connectivity John Borkowski MSP Solutions Ltd October 2013 1
  • 1. Air Connectivity for SW England and Wales • Today air connectivity is vital to ensure: - Communication with world markets and - Promote economic development through inward investment. • Air connectivity requires appropriate airports that need to be planned and developed on a logical and consistent basis. • Since the end of World War II all UK Governments have failed to understand the importance of aviation and to develop a competitive airports policy. • All current UK airports have significant site environmental problems. • Today we have the embarrassment of inadequate or inappropriate airport capacity everywhere in the UK (Too many small airports). • We need state-of-the-art airports to compete in world markets • Airports (Davies) Commission now gives UK a chance to seriously review current UK Government aviation policy and rectify our airport problems. 2
  • 2. Evolution of Traffic at Selected UK Regional Airports Passengers Million • Cardiff Airport passenger numbers are now in consistent decline. • Bristol Airport has steadily outperformed Cardiff Airport. AIRPORT MANCHESTER 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 19.082 18.618 19.520 20.969 22.083 22.124 21.892 21.063 18.630 17.663 18.807 19.737 BIRMINGHAM BOURNEMOUTH 7.712 0.265 7.911 0.392 8.924 0.462 8.797 0.493 9.311 0.829 9.056 0.961 9.134 1.083 9.577 1.079 9.093 0.868 8.564 0.75 8.608 0.613 8.922 0.693 BRISTOL 2.673 3.415 3.887 4.603 5.199 5.71 5.884 6.229 5.615 5.723 5.768 5.921 CARDIFF WALES 1.524 COVENTRY 0.001 EXETER 0.333 Total selected Regional 31.590 Airports 1.416 0.004 0.336 1.9 0.002 0.378 1.873 0.461 0.614 1.765 0.718 0.842 1.993 0.610 0.971 2.094 0.599 1.012 1.979 0.331 0.951 1.625 1.398 1.208 1.028 0.790 0.737 0.709 0.702 32.092 35.073 37.810 40.747 41.425 41.698 41.209 36.621 34.835 35.713 37.003 3
  • 3. DfT 2013 Forecast Evolution of Traffic Type MAN,BHX,BRS Constrained Scenario • Bristol Airport is not suitable for longhaul flights. • Lack of SE Airport capacity forces up BHX longhaul flights. • If Bristol was a bigger site it could attract many more flights including LH. • Wales and SW England Traffic is forced to use BHX and MAN. mppa Manchester 2010 Manchester 2030 Manchester 2050 Domestic (Excl. intl transfers) Total 1.0 1.5 2.1 Birmingham 2010 Birmingham 2030 Birmingham 2050 1.0 1.5 1.8 6.2 12.5 21.0 1.0 2.6 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.8 8.2 16.7 38.3 Bristol 2010 Bristol 2030 Bristol 2050 0.8 1.1 1.5 4.9 7.6 10.2 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.8 9.7 12.3 Demand Short haul Long haul Hub transfers Grand Total 11.4 19.3 33.3 Total 4.9 7.1 12.5 Total 0.3 0.3 7.3 Total 17.7 28.1 55.2 4
  • 4. Replace Bristol and Cardiff with a Single Bigger Airport • Bristol Airport filling up - limited further capacity expansion possibility. • Cardiff Airport - not well located to pick up English passengers. • What happens here if LHR is replaced by another hub airport STN or Thames Estuary? • Replace Bristol and Cardiff with a single new large airport in Severn Estuary: - State-of-the-art passenger terminal and 3,500-4,000m runway - More destinations - More frequency - also Major Cargo activities - Bigger aircraft - lower costs - Longhaul flights - Environment: 24-hour operation with flight-path over water. - Biggest catalyst to regenerate economic activity in SW England and Wales 5
  • 6. ce Bristol and Cardiff with a Single Bigger Airport New South East Wales International Airport Catchment for the New Airport Indicative airport site Catchment area generating 80% of passengers 31 6
  • 5. Replace Bristol and Cardiff with a Single Bigger Airport New Severn Estuary Airport - Passenger Air Traffic Forecast - High Year Passengers (millions) Short Haul Growth rate Ex Bristol Ex Cardiff Subtotal SH Long Haul Growth rate Subtotal LH 2028 2029 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 12 1.2 13.2 5% 12.6 1.3 13.9 5% 13.2 1.3 14.6 4% 16.7 1.7 18.4 4% 20.3 2.0 22.4 4% 24.8 2.5 27.3 3.5% 29.4 2.9 32.4 0.2 150% 0.5 20% 1.7 15% 3.6 5% 4.6 4% 5.6 14.1 15.1 20.2 26.0 31.9 38.0 Total Passengers New Severn Estuary Airport - Passenger Air Traffic Forecast - Low Year Passengers (millions) Short Haul Growth rate Ex Bristol Ex Cardiff Subtotal SH Long Haul Growth rate Subtotal LH Total Passengers 2028 2029 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 9.5 1.1 10.6 5% 10.0 1.2 11.2 5% 10.5 1.2 11.7 4% 13.2 1.5 14.8 4% 16.1 1.9 18.0 4% 19.6 2.3 21.9 3.5% 23.3 2.7 26.0 0.2 100% 0.4 20% 1.3 15% 2.7 5% 3.5 4% 4.2 11.4 12.1 16.1 20.7 25.4 30.2 7
  • 6. What does the New Airport provide over BRS/CWL • Airport would be a state-of-art large airport (size of Gatwick) suitable for operating the largest aircraft at maximum TO weight for 24-hour operation: long/wide runway. • Airport would attract much more traffic than BRS/CWL combined: Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways plus US carriers. • New UK longhaul airline could also emerge if IAG (BA/Iberia) does not participate. • Longhaul flights starting with small narrow body aircraft B737-700ER/A319LR. • Then B757 replacement, followed by wide-body B767, B787 and A350XWB at a later date. • Large pure freighters and express parcel operators (FEDEX, UPS, Cargolux) would be attracted to the airport for B747-8F, B747-400F and B777F longhaul flights. • Only a marginal contribution to resolving the SE Airport Hub capacity problem. 8
  • Fuel and Maintenance Area 3500-4000 m Runway 45 m wide Minimum separation is 590 m to safeguard for emergency or close parallel runway options as illustrated in Options 2 Taxiway 55 m Fire Station Stands Road Rail Road, Rail and Car Parking Zone Terminal Up to 6 MARS stands Taxiway Pier Cargo and Catering Temporary Remote Stands Railway would loop under the airport back to the main GW line East 1300 m Severn Estuary Airport Concept Plan Long Term Strategic Development Safeguarded Zones Phase1 for Options 1 or 2 Single new Runway and New Taxiway 2000m Approx. Safeguarded area for either Options 1 or 2
  • Fuel and Maintenance Area 45 m 3500-4000 m Runway 45 m wide 200 m Taxiway 100 m Stand Stand Stand Stand Rail Taxiway Long Term Strategic Development Safeguarded Zones Option 1 Single Runway, Stand Stand Stand Stand Stand Stand Stand Stand Stand Below Ground TTS Link Stand Stand Stand Stand Stand Severn Estuary Airport Concept Plan Stand 1150 m Approx. Stand Pier Terminal Road, Rail and Car Parking Zone Pier Road Stand Satellite Cargo and Catering Fire Station 400 m Stand Stand Stand 800 m New Control Tower Railway would loop under the airport back to the main GW line East Stand Stand 600 m Future Taxiway 190 m Future Runway 150 m 1700m Approx.
  • 7. Single Bigger Airport - Next steps • SW England and Wales need to work together to achieve this objective. • The concept needs the support of Westminster and the Welsh Assembly governments. • Incorporate the airport in the rail electrification programme, the Severn Barrage Project and the deep water container port (4-way intermodal mode freight hub possibility). • The planning and approval process will take time. • Construction duration estimated at 6 to 7 years. • The 2003 Newport Study (Severn Estuary Airport) needs updating and more extensive study on geology, environmental impact and costing - Need a budget! • Submission needs approval of the Airports (Davies) Commission. 11
  • 12
  • 2011 How Busy are Bristol and Cardiff Airports? Airport Bristol Cardiff ATMs/annum ATMs/day ATMs/hour PAX/ATM 66,000 181 10 87.2 29,130 80 4 41.5 Stansted Gatwick Heathrow 148,317 251,067 480,906 406 688 1318 23 38 73 119.6 130.3 144.6 London City 68,792 220 12 42.5 Notes: 2011 data ex-CAA LCY operates a 6 day week 13
  • 4. DfT 2013 Forecast Evolution of Traffic to BRS and CWL • Bristol’s restricted site limits its capacity expansion potential. • Cardiff only grows because of Bristol’s lack of capacity. DfT 2013 Forecast mppa Airport Scenario 2030 2050 Bristol Low Central High Low Central High 7.7 9.7 12.4 0.9 1.1 1.2 10.7 12.3 Cardiff Runway Capacity ATMs/a Bristol Cardiff Passenger Capacity mppa Bristol Cardiff 1.3 7.8 2008 150 105 2030 226 150 2050 226 150 10 3 12 8 12 8 14
  • 3. Existing UK Airports and Wales in 2012 • Cardiff carries only 24% of Wales’ origin and destination traffic! MSP Solutions’ Estimate based on CAA and DfT Data Wales Total Wales '000 million % Heathrow 810 70.04 1.2 Gatwick 302 34.33 Stansted 90 Luton London City Cardiff Total Wales '000 million % Bristol 800 5.92 13.5 0.9 Manchester 760 19.74 3.9 17.47 0.5 Liverpool 245 4.46 5.5 9.62 0.6 Birmingham 150 8.92 1.7 3 3.02 0.1 East Midlands 20 4.08 0.5 1,260 134.5 0.9 Exeter 5 0.7 0.7 Newquay Sub Total SE Airports Wales 55 SE Airports 0 0.17 0 1,980 43.99 4.5 950 1.03 92 Regional Airports Sub Total Other UK Airports Total Wales' 2012 Passengers: 4.19 million(Cardiff 0.95 million) 15
  • Evolution of UK Income and Population Growth • SW England is forecast to grow significantly faster than the UK average. • Wales is expected to grow at a lower rate than the average for the UK. Underlying DfT NTEM Regional Income and Population Forecasts Income £billion Population million NTEM UK Region/Area 2011 2041 % change 2011 2041 % change South West 48.7 63.7 31% 5.2 6.4 23% Wales 26.0 32.0 23% 3 3.3 12% London 97.0 124.9 29% 7.6 9.5 25% South East 96.0 118.5 23% 8.5 10.1 19% Eastern England 60.4 78.7 30% 5.8 7.3 26% North East 21.8 26.1 20% 2.6 2.8 11% Yorkshire and Humberside 46.6 62.0 33% 5.3 6.4 22% North West 63.9 75.7 18% 6.8 7.4 9% West Midlands 48.4 58.6 21% 5.4 6.2 14% East Midlands 40.3 52.2 30% 4.4 5.4 22% Scotland 51.2 60.7 19% 5.1 5.4 6% Total 600.4 753.3 25% 59.6 70.3 18% 16
  • 5. DfT 2013 Forecast Evolution of UK Aviation Traffic passengers million • The figures mask SE Airports issue: LHR and LGW are both full by 2020. • Critical traffic lost or forced sub-optimally into regional airports (BHX). • Bristol and Cardiff unable to exploit the full SW opportunity due to location. (mppa) 2020 2010 2030 2040 2050 Low Central High Low Central High Low Central High Low Central High Unconstrained 211 Demand Constrained Demand 211 238 259 281 281 320 359 314 391 483 350 482 661 236 255 277 276 313 347 306 372 451 339 447 Cannot meet demand Demand cannot be met in High Case in 2050 as insufficient runway capacity! 17
  • DfT 2013 Forecast Evolution of Traffic to UK Airports • Wales and South West Passengers forced to use BHX and MAN in the long term. Terminal Passengers by Region of surface journey to airport origin: max use 2010-2050 (constrained) Max Use: million passengers Surface to SE airports 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Northern Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 Scotland 0 0 0 0 0 North 2 2 2 1 1 Midlands 6 9 10 7 5 Wales 1 1 1 1 1 South West 5 6 7 6 5 Regional total 14 19 20 15 12 SE passengers 89 112 136 156 167 Total surface passengers at SE 103 131 157 171 179 Airports Other airports Northern Ireland 6 7 9 12 16 Scotland 20 23 29 34 42 North 28 34 43 54 66 Midlands 13 15 19 29 39 Wales 3 4 5 7 9 South West 7 8 11 16 21 Regional total 77 90 117 153 193 SE passengers 2 4 7 17 39 Total surface passengers at other 78 95 124 171 231 airports 18
  • DfT 2013 Forecast Evolution No of Destinations by Traffic Type Constrained Scenario • The future for Cardiff Airport as a commercial airport is not very promising. • Bristol by contrast has a much better future. DfT 2013 Forecast Destinations served split by airline type, 2010-2050 (constrained) Airport Scheduled LCC Charter 2011 2020 2030 2040 2050 2011 2020 2030 2040 2050 2011 2020 2030 2040 2050 Heathrow 174 173 168 170 155 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Gatwick 133 148 140 124 94 99 103 73 70 54 109 63 69 69 Stansted 52 70 82 113 88 27 37 43 46 48 65 40 43 41 62 39 Luton 29 33 48 45 27 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 1 0 London City 3 2 1 2 1 47 63 65 66 61 17 3 1 0 0 Manchester 80 91 117 140 163 65 54 58 59 54 100 75 84 100 121 Birmingham 50 56 64 52 37 51 21 19 11 12 19 24 28 28 0 Bristol 16 18 28 36 39 60 82 89 98 90 10 7 5 8 10 Cardiff 2 3 4 8 8 22 17 17 16 17 0 0 0 0 0 687 778 882 995 994 740 681 686 696 756 590 431 453 476 474 All UK Airports 19
  • Impact of Possible SE Airports Expansion on Wales and SW England • Wales SW England needs to look for a new airport to meet its own needs. • Severn Estuary location offers good intermodal connections and minimal environmental damage. • LHR can only have one additional effective parallel new runway (old BAA scheme). • Even then LHR not competitive with European Hubs especially AMS and CDG in long run. Not competitive with new Middle East Hubs Dubai/Abu Dhabi/Qatar. • Thames Estuary Airports (e.g. Grain or Goodwin) provide a state-of-the-art 4 runway airport but very expensive and much further for Wales/SW England. • Gatwick - space for one more runway: not ideal for later further expansion. • Luton very restricted site only one other runway possible: not likely to be chosen. • Stansted lowest cost solution for 4-runway airport; could be chosen by Davies. • Stansted would be bad news for Wales and SW England as much further than LHR. 20
  • UK Airports Wales and SW England (1) Wales needs to join together with SW England (Bristol) to find a common solution of a major new airport to replace both Bristol and Cardiff airports. • Cardiff Airport - next 10 years disappointing with low growth potential. • Bristol Airport - poor site with limited long term growth potential especially for longhaul flights. • Wales’ and SW England traffic is forced in the long run to use Birmingham Airport. • Wales’ population and economic (income) growth disappointing in current scenarios. • New airport (sized as Gatwick but with second runway potential) could be built in the Severn Estuary off Newport. • Would permit 24-hour operation and attract LH and cargo traffic . • Minimal environmental impact as flights’ landing approach and take-off would be over water. 21
  • UK Airports Wales and SW England (2) Submission needs to be made to the Davies Commission as soon as possible. Submission of Interest needed by for the Davies Commission as soon as possib Expression need to be prepared 28 February 2013; Submission 19 July 2013. • Airport would create many new skilled jobs and catalyse inward investment. • Existing Cardiff and Bristol traffic would be sufficient to “seed” new airport. • Existing Cardiff and Bristol airport sites become housing/light industry sites and cash generated to be injected to fund the new airport development. • New airport site needs to be considered in terms of connections to existing motorways M4/M5 and Great Western rail electrification. • New airport site also needs to be considered in context of the Severn Barrage power generation project and new deepwater marine container port - intermodal freight hub marine/air/road/rail could be developed. • New detailed study is required before go-ahead can be decided. • Welsh Assembly needs to consider and support the proposal. 22
  • UK Airports - Cardiff Airport Cardiff to be prepared be supported in the Medium Term. Submission need Airport needs tofor the Davies Commission as soon as possibl • Important to preserve as many commercial air services as possible for Wales. • Retain current airport and airline operational jobs at the airport. • Ensure that the British Airways wide-body aircraft heavy maintenance operation remains on the airport site. • Try to increase cargo volumes even if this is only a marginal operation. • It may be difficult to grow passenger traffic significantly especially as Bristol offers a much better choice of destination and frequency, • However a new initiative could be made to try to attract new airline entrants. • Long term objective would be to be able to transfer as much activity as possible to the new strategic Severn Estuary Airport. 23
  • DfT 2013 Forecast GDP Growth Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 Growth of UK Real UK GDP* growth Real UK GDP* growth Real UK GDP* growth Growth of UK consumer Growth of UK consumer consumer expenditure (%), low (%), central (%), high expenditure (%), low expenditure (%), central (%), high 1.60 1.60 1.60 2.50 2.50 2.50 0.30 0.30 0.30 -1.90 -1.90 -1.90 -1.00 -0.30 0.40 0.40 1.10 1.80 -0.20 1.00 2.30 -0.50 0.70 2.00 -0.10 1.80 3.50 -0.90 1.00 2.70 0.20 2.10 3.80 -1.10 0.80 2.50 0.50 2.50 4.20 -0.90 1.10 2.80 0.70 2.60 4.40 -0.70 1.20 3.00 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.70 2.20 2.80 1.70 2.20 2.80 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.60 2.10 2.60 1.60 2.10 2.60 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.90 2.40 2.90 1.90 2.40 2.90 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.80 2.30 2.80 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 1.70 2.20 2.70 24