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Sertse presentation main sources of ghg_ethiopia

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  • 1. Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Ministry of Agriculture Addis Ababa Presented by Sertse Sebuh Sertse Sebuh Audience: Agriculture Sector Stakeholders 1 sertse6741@yahoo.com February 19, 2014
  • 2. The Context Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Ministry of Agriculture Addis Ababa Contents of Presentation 1. The Context 2. Sectoral Break down • Agriculture • Forestry • Power • Transport • Industry • Buildings 3. Potentials for Mitigation & Green Economy 2  Based on the World Bank Institute course materials “Turn Down the Heat”, warming of the climate system is unequivocal due to increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) since 1950s  According to the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), human influence has been the overwhelming cause of global warming at 95% certainty  Without further commitments and action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the world is likely to warm by more than 3 C above the preindustrial climate  Through the Climate Resilient Green Economy strategy launched in 2011, Ethiopia has committed itself to build green economy by 2025 by reducing its sectors
  • 3. The Context  If Ethiopia were to pursue a conventional economic development path to achieve its ambition of reaching middle-income status by 2025, GHG emissions would more than double from 150 Mt CO2e in 2010 to 400 Mt CO2e in 2030  The targeted GHGs under Ethiopian conditions are mainly CO2, CH4, N2O Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Ministry of Agriculture Addis Ababa Contents of Presentation 1. The Context  Developing a green the integration requires the economy Developing a green economy requires of economic development and GHG abatement/avoidance integration of economic development & GHG abatement Combining economic growth with low GHG emissions, e.g. ▪ Sustainable land use via efficient agriculture Development initiatives Green economy ▪ Sequestration in forests ▪ Expansion of renewable energy Resilient economy CRGE Abatement/ avoidance initiatives Resilience initiatives ▪ Resource efficient advanced technologies 3 Green economy can help to avoid lock-in in old technologies, unsustainable growth and land use
  • 4.  Ethiopia’s contribution to the global increase in GHG emissions since the industrial revolution has been practically Federal Democratic negligible (2010 per capita emissions of Republic of Ethiopia Ministry of Agriculture less than 2 t CO2e ) Addis Ababa  But predictably it can increase significantly under fast economic growth More than 85% of GHG emissions in Ethiopia come from scenario Contents of forestry and agriculture Presentation 2. Sectoral Break down • Agriculture • Forestry • Power • Transport • Industry • Buildings  More than 85% of GHG emissions in Share of GHG emissions, 2010 Ethiopia come from forestry and Total GHG emissions of ~150 Mt CO e in 2010 agriculture Share of GHG emissions, 2010 2 Industry Buildings Transport 3% 3% Power 3% 3% 50% Agriculture Forestry 4 37%
  • 5.  If a typical development path were followed, If a typical development path were followed, emissions Federal Democratic emissions would increase from 150 Mt to would increase from 150 Mt to 400 Mt or 3.0 t CO2e/capita (2010 to 2030) Republic of Ethiopia 400 Mt or Ministry of Agriculture BAU emissions development CAGR1 3.0 yearCO2e/capita (2010 toand rationale t 2030) Addis Ababa Mt CO2e per Percent Drivers 3.0 population and other  Livestock: Increase in cattle-30) 400 species (doubling from 2010  Soil: Increase in cultivated land (crops Contents of Presentation 2. Sectoral Break down • Agriculture • Forestry • Power • Transport • Industry • Buildings Agriculture 4.4% +167%  Average growth of cropland (estimated to reach 3.9% per year)  Increase in population leading to higher fuelwood consumption 1.8 150 90 5 40 75 55 5 70 5 5 5 2010 5 production) and synthetic fertilizer 185 10 2030 – BAU 1 Compound average growth rate Forestry Power Transport Industry Buildings 2.6% 11.2% 15.7% 3.9%  Switch of remaining fossil fuel capacity to 100% clean/renewable generation for on (2014) -grid  Increase in passengerkm traveled projected based on elasticity to real GDP  Increase in ton-km of cargo transported based on   elasticity to real GDP Cement production (steep increase in GTP, thereafter approach to MIClevel) Establishment and scaleup of industries in textile, steel, fertilizer, mining and others  Buildings and solid/liquid waste emissions
  • 6.  Surveys made to prepare the CRGE strategy show that: Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Ministry of Agriculture  Given the projected population growth of Ethiopia, emissions on a per capita basis Addis Ababa would decrease from 1.8 t of CO2e to 1.1 – a decrease of around 35% – while multiplying GDP per capita from USD 380 to more than USD 1,800 Contents of Presentation 3. Potentials for Mitigation & Green Economy 6  While contributing to reaching economic and social development targets, Ethiopia through building green economy has the domestic potential to contribute to the global effort by abating around 250 Mt CO2e in 2030 as compared to conventional development practices – this equals a decrease in GHG emissions of up to 64% compared to BAU in 2030
  • 7.  If Ethiopia uses its potential for mitigation and building green economy, it can ensure a low-carbon economic development Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia pathway, decreasing per capita emissions CRGE implementation could ensure a low-carbon economic Ministry of Agriculture development pathway, decreasing per capita emissions by 60% by 60% t CO e/capita Addis Ababa Agriculture Power Industry Emissions per year , Mt CO e 1 2 2 Forestry Transport Others 400 90 185 Contents of Presentation 130 150 400 90 75 3. Potentials for Mitigation & Green Economy -64% 5 55 5 5 5 5 40 10 5 145 70 10 2010 2030 BAU 1.8 Agri- Forestry Trans- Industry Builculture port dings 3.0 1 Rounded numbers 2 Currently estimated emissions form buildings and waste 7 20 Green Economy 2030 1.1 Additional abatement potential of ~19 Mt CO2e from exporting green power to regional markets
  • 8. Presentation Source Materials FDRE. Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy: Green Economy Strategy. 2011. The World Bank. Turn Down the Heat. Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience. 2013 WBI Course. Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4 Must be Avoided. 2014. 8 0 C Warmer World