Creatividad Y Oportunidad En El Puerto Rico Del Hoy

Creatividad y Oportunidad en el Puerto Rico de Hoy Creatividad Oportunidad Visión José J. Villamil Convención de la Asociación de Ventas y Mercadeo de Puerto Rico 30 de octubre de 2009

Recent Economic Trends Creatividad Oportunidad Visión

The Puerto Rican Economy Long term stagnation A cyclical recession Why it’s important to get it right…

Necessary growth to return to 2006 real GNP 2013 and 2014: 2.6 and 3.4% Recovering lost Ground The Puerto Rican Economy $6,000.0 $6,200.0 $6,400.0 $6,600.0 $6,800.0 $7,000.0 $7,200.0 $7,400.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Real GNP 86.0 88.0 90.0 92.0 94.0 96.0 98.0 100.0 102.0 Index Real GNP (2006=100) Source: Estudios Técnicos, Inc. Forecast

Most Likely Scenario - Real GNP Growth

Fiscal 2009 - (-5.0%)

Fiscal 2010 - (-0.3%)

Fiscal 2011 - (1.8%)

Summing up

Upside

The stimulus package funds become available quickly and implementation is accelerated. So far disbursements have been slow, mainly due to obstacles at the federal level.

The price of oil remains low - below levels of 2008.

The U.S. economy recovery begins in Q4-09.

Financial rescue improves banking sector liquidity.

Long term interest rates remain low.

Downside

Oil prices rise to levels above $80 per barrel

The U.S. economy recovery is weak.

Fiscal difficulties force the Commonwealth government to adopt even stricter cost-cutting measures, diluting effect on growth of stimulus package.

The local banking industry experiences even greater delinquency rates in construction loans and property values continue to erode.

Risks The Economy: A Brief Review

The Firm in a Turbulent Environment "We have to accept what we all know to be elemental - that taking a defensive position can, at best, only limit losses. And we need gains." Peter Drucker , HBR 1961 “ May you live in interesting times." Chinese Curse

After the Crisis: Continuing Turbulence

Volatility in prices

Continuing uncertainties in the financial markets

Changing competitive conditions

New pressures on the firm

A more restrictive regulatory environment

Rapidly changing technology

A new economic center of gravity

Volatility in prices Continuing uncertainties in the financial markets Changing competitive conditions New pressures on the firm A more restrictive regulatory environment Rapidly changing technology A new economic center of gravity

Turbulence is a permanent condition

Changes in market structure are not reversible

Global pressures will be increasingly felt in local markets

Competition will be more intense

Markets will not grow rapidly

The Firm in a Turbulent World It must assume that:

In such a context, the firm must The Firm in a Turbulent World

Estudios Técnicos, Inc. Creatividad Oportunidad Visión

How it all began… Two partners A room without a view Economics as the exclusive focus

The Evolution of The Firm 1985 1990 1995 2000 Economic Analysis and Policy Urban and Regional Planning Market Research Social Analysis and Policy Environmental Planning 1996

Innovation as a Constant Concern Technology Process Products Services Knowledge integration

Some Firsts… The first study on privatization in Puerto Rico Drafting of the Public Policy on Science and Technology Pioneered the use of focus groups and innovative Community visioning exercises and integration approaches in planning projects Completed Puerto Rico’s first and only study of Smart Growth and Economic Valuation of Coral Reefs Integrated GIS and market research through a proprietary model Developed Puerto Rico’s first consumer and business confidence indexes

Looking forward Technology as Key Alliances and network creation as essential Reinvention as a continuing process

Estudios Técnicos, Inc… a knowledge producing firm www.estudiostecnicos.com 787-751-1675