David Perez
CMO
"Measuring the Mobile Lead"
Cross-Device Attribution and Determining ROI
#SMX @Convertro
97% 95%
85%
78%
71%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
Mobile
Tablet
Desktop
S...
eCommerce % Revenue by Device
71%
15%
14%
Desktop
Mobile/Tablet
Web
In-App
Source: Convertro eCommerce clients with & with...
Mobile, Tablet and Cross-Device Interactions
5.7 internet connected devices per U.S. HH according to
NPD (March 2013)
Conv...
Case Study: Cross-device tracking, Indochino
Problem: Unsure if mobile campaigns were producing
results
Result: Quantified...
#SMX @Convertro
Tracking Cross Device
Email Address = The New Cookie…
User ID = The New Cookie
#SMX @Convertro
Cross Device Tracking: 1st Party Data
1. Transaction – Get User ID
2. Login – Get User ID
3. ESP – Transactional Email – G...
Cross Device Tracking: 2nd Party Data
Convertro  2nd party client device mappings
DoubleClick  Android + Gmail
Atlas  F...
Cross Device Tracking: 3rd Party Data
Cookie sync with 3rd party data providers that track
cross-device
• LiveRamp
• TapAd...
Holistic Attribution
• Need to track all channels, offline to online, for a holistic picture
of your marketing spend and c...
Convertro Algorithm
1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Exposure to Marketing
ProbabilityofConversion
Logistic Funct...
In Matrix Format (Example: Four Unique Paths)
Convs Total
10 1000
5 100
10 100
30 1000
Prob
Conv
1%
5%
10%
3%
Org. PPC TV ...
Advanced Modeling: Base / Lift
Measures true incremental lift of paid marketing on sales:
1. Define a “base” probability o...
Advanced Modeling: Event Chaining
• Addresses repeat purchases and multiple steps in
conversion funnel
• Attribute precedi...
Advanced Modeling: Source Decay
• Estimate period over which source exposure effect
decays over time
• Plot for views show...
Model Validation
• Randomly splitting user click trails into training and
test sets (80/20 split)
• Train a set of models ...
Model validation and testing
TRUSTED BY:
#SMX @Convertro
Apply Cost Data
"A lot of that is around being able to allocate our
spend where it's most effective.”
Attribution + Cost =...
Optimizing - Cross-Channel Allocations
• Optimal spend against each marketing channel to maximize goal (e.g.
ROI)
#SMX @Co...
Optimizing - Sub-Channel Allocations
#SMX @Convertro
Optimizing - Tactical Allocations
KEYWORDS
HIDDEN
#SMX @Convertro
Summary
• Mobile/Tablet Traffic & Conversions Growing
• 1.4 Devices Per Conversion
• Mobile is Top of Funnel – Not Last Cl...
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How To Measure Mobile Leads Using Cross-Device Attribution and Determine ROI

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Smx West 2014 Session #Smx #24C - Measuring The Mobile Leadpresentation How To Measure Mobile Leads Using Cross-Device Attribution And Determine Roi By David Perez @Convertro Of Convertro

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How To Measure Mobile Leads Using Cross-Device Attribution and Determine ROI

  1. 1. David Perez CMO "Measuring the Mobile Lead" Cross-Device Attribution and Determining ROI #SMX @Convertro
  2. 2. 97% 95% 85% 78% 71% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Mobile Tablet Desktop Source: Same set of 50 Convertro ecommerce clients over 5 year period eCommerce % Visits By Device #SMX @Convertro
  3. 3. eCommerce % Revenue by Device 71% 15% 14% Desktop Mobile/Tablet Web In-App Source: Convertro eCommerce clients with & without iOS/Android Apps - using algorithmic attribution – Jan 2014 80% 20% Revenue by Device – No Apps Revenue by Device – w/ Apps #SMX @Convertro
  4. 4. Mobile, Tablet and Cross-Device Interactions 5.7 internet connected devices per U.S. HH according to NPD (March 2013) Convertro See 1.4 Devices Per Conversion (Jan 2014) #SMX @Convertro
  5. 5. Case Study: Cross-device tracking, Indochino Problem: Unsure if mobile campaigns were producing results Result: Quantified how mobile campaigns were driving desktop sales 1. Discovered that of multi-device users were switching from mobile to desktop before converting 2. Optimized mobile based on overall results #SMX @Convertro
  6. 6. #SMX @Convertro
  7. 7. Tracking Cross Device Email Address = The New Cookie… User ID = The New Cookie #SMX @Convertro
  8. 8. Cross Device Tracking: 1st Party Data 1. Transaction – Get User ID 2. Login – Get User ID 3. ESP – Transactional Email – Get User ID #SMX @Convertro
  9. 9. Cross Device Tracking: 2nd Party Data Convertro  2nd party client device mappings DoubleClick  Android + Gmail Atlas  Facebook #SMX @Convertro
  10. 10. Cross Device Tracking: 3rd Party Data Cookie sync with 3rd party data providers that track cross-device • LiveRamp • TapAd #SMX @Convertro
  11. 11. Holistic Attribution • Need to track all channels, offline to online, for a holistic picture of your marketing spend and conversion events • Need transparency, verification and accuracy in order to take control of your advertising performance • Ability of tracking across devices is crucial for correct data TV Radio Direct Mail Call Centers In-store Purchases Phone Web/App Tablet Web/App SocialEmailWebsite #SMX @Convertro
  12. 12. Convertro Algorithm 1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Exposure to Marketing ProbabilityofConversion Logistic Function Events #SMX @Convertro
  13. 13. In Matrix Format (Example: Four Unique Paths) Convs Total 10 1000 5 100 10 100 30 1000 Prob Conv 1% 5% 10% 3% Org. PPC TV Emai l Disp. 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 Y Conversion & Frequency Counts of Paths X =1 .10 .20 .30 .10 .30Resulting Weights i Convertro Algorithm #SMX @Convertro
  14. 14. Advanced Modeling: Base / Lift Measures true incremental lift of paid marketing on sales: 1. Define a “base” probability of conversion (probability that a customer who was not exposed to marketing converts) 2. Measure the revenue contribution of other marketing sources relative to the base probability as “lifts” or “increments” above that base #SMX @Convertro
  15. 15. Advanced Modeling: Event Chaining • Addresses repeat purchases and multiple steps in conversion funnel • Attribute preceding events • First conversion gets credit for the next conversion #SMX @Convertro
  16. 16. Advanced Modeling: Source Decay • Estimate period over which source exposure effect decays over time • Plot for views shows that < 25% of conversions occurred by end of 1 day #SMX @Convertro
  17. 17. Model Validation • Randomly splitting user click trails into training and test sets (80/20 split) • Train a set of models on the training set • Then Run a prediction on the previously-unseen test sets (with the actual conversion events removed from the clicktrail). #SMX @Convertro
  18. 18. Model validation and testing TRUSTED BY: #SMX @Convertro
  19. 19. Apply Cost Data "A lot of that is around being able to allocate our spend where it's most effective.” Attribution + Cost = ROI, CPA #SMX @Convertro
  20. 20. Optimizing - Cross-Channel Allocations • Optimal spend against each marketing channel to maximize goal (e.g. ROI) #SMX @Convertro
  21. 21. Optimizing - Sub-Channel Allocations #SMX @Convertro
  22. 22. Optimizing - Tactical Allocations KEYWORDS HIDDEN #SMX @Convertro
  23. 23. Summary • Mobile/Tablet Traffic & Conversions Growing • 1.4 Devices Per Conversion • Mobile is Top of Funnel – Not Last Click or Last Device 85% of time • Use 1st party, 2nd party and 3rd party data to sync cross-device • Use Algorithm to allocate credit based upon influence on conversion • Determine optimal spend allocations #SMX @Convertro
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