Detecon Think ICT 2032! Position for ICT everywhere


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Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is one of the most dynamic industry sectors of our times. The future of the ICT industry is shaped by long term socio-economic trends and at the same time ICT will shape the way we work and live in the future. Accordingly, we have developed a framework to set the scene for the year, when today's ICT executives will reach the end of their careers: 2032!
What are the most important trends, what do future ICT applications look like and what does this mean for players in the market?

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Detecon Think ICT 2032! Position for ICT everywhere

  1. 1. Think 2032! Position forICT everywhere Bonn, January 2011 Deutsche Telekom Group
  2. 2. Content1. The Future ICT Ecosystem2. ICT meets industries3. Think 2032! Page 1
  3. 3. Content1. The Future ICT Ecosystem Page 2
  4. 4. The Future ICT EcosystemThere is a plethora of trends influencing the ICT ecosystem. Key for a long-termprojection are sustainable mega trends.Gone East GDP Distribution 2030 Former emerging Asia is dominant in terms of population and economic power Others Presence in Asian ICT markets is scale critical 21% China Central ICT product developments and innovations originate in China/India 36% and are globally marketed 19% IndiaTriad has aged 24% Life expectancy grows globally by almost 5 years. N. Americans, Europeans USA and Japanese people remain older than their peers Seniors form a huge global ICT market with several sub-segments requiring dedicated value propositions Life Expectancy ICT enabled health/wellness/living are central demand drivers 85 N. America 80 80,9 78,6 EuropeMostly urbanized 75 Asia 60% of the population lives in urban areas (cities) 70 74,2 Several mega-cities with more than 10m inhabitants have established 65 themselves as economic powerhouses 60 58,2 Africa ICT smartness with converged ICT enabled infrastructure determines the 55 competitive advantage of such conglomerations 0Source: OECD, 2010, IMF, 2009 2010 2030 Page 3
  5. 5. The Future ICT EcosystemICT not only drives globalization to a next level, but fundamentally changes productionand business interaction patterns.Fully globalized economy World trade Small and medium enterprises address markets globally benefiting from advanced ICT infrastructure as well as production and service digitalization in USD trillion Most multinationals and many large enterprises have a R&D, production and 51 sales footprint on all continents and rely on ICT enabled collaboration along the complete value chain +271% 14Dynamic business networks flourished Automation of business processes has reached the second next level. ICT 2010 2030 plays a central role in automation of service and management functions ICT enabled dynamic business networks allow for ad-hoc build up of production, sales and service value chains with near real time “add-in” and Business activity share “phase out” of business partnersMarch of the machines dynamic biz networks In the Internet of things machine-to-machine communication prevails 30% Self-learning smart agents act autonomously in pre defined fields for consumers and the Internet moves up the data value chain from search selection recommendation … towards … decision transaction 70% Smart agents represent business partners in smart business networks traditional biz networksSource: OECD, 2010, Detecon, 2010 Page 4
  6. 6. The Future ICT EcosystemFrom the mega trends in the ICT eco-system six ICT core beliefs result. 1 The economic and ICT center of gravity moves East! 2 The Triade ages and ICT masters the challenges! 3 Mega- cities emerge with ICT as a competitive differentiator! 4 In a globalized economy ICT paves the way for SME biz! 5 The era of smart business networks is to come! 6 Smart agents have the say in the Internet of things! Page 5
  7. 7. From the Past to the Future – An ICT PerspectiveBy looking back we start to realize how far the global ICT industry has come in the lasttwenty years and what we can expect from the next two decades. 1994 1995 1999 2003 2006 1.4bn. >4bn. Internet Mobile World Users Phone Wide facebook Users Web 1991 1995 1998 2001 2004 2008 2010 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 1991 1993 1996 1998 2001 2004 2007 2009 Pentium 1st MP3 1st UMTS Firefox Launch Player Network 1.0 iPhone 1990 1992 1995 1997 2000 2002 2006 2008 2010 1 Billion PCs shipped GSM MS IEEE 1 GHz Standard Windows 802.11 iPadSource: Detecon, Logos are trademark of respective companies Page 6
  8. 8. Content2. ICT meets Industries Page 7
  9. 9. ICT meets EnergyThe convergence of ICT and energy opens up new growth perspectives throughinnovative business models and service offerings.Market size & development (US) Innovative ICT application fields With US$ 433 billion, worldwide energy market by far outreaches the size of ICT technology market which 2010 amounts to US$ 52 billion Demand Response Management Market for renewable energy technology growing from Automated, price-dependent mgmt. US$ 55.4 billion in 2006 to US$ 226.5 billion in 2016 of energy supply, based on metered capacity and demand profiles General market trend: stagnating demand, increasing Combination with Digital Home prices appliances and applications Virtual Power PlantsSource: cleanedge, 2009 Centralized, ICT-based management of distributed energy supply & demand assetsMarket Drivers Avoidance of peek loads; less ‚Unbundling‘, politically motivated increase of dependency from central energy supply competition Climate protection/reduction of CO2 emission Limited fossil energy resources E-Mobility/Vehicle-to-grid Usage of decentralized energy storage Increasing geo-political dependencies Less dependency from volatile energy Decentralized energy generation generation Advancing digitalization/mature ICT technologies at Decoupling of demand & supply market relevant costs Page 8
  10. 10. ICT meets AutomotiveFull access to all kind of real time information, multi-media and social network on themove; innovators like BMW are paving the way towards digitally connected cars.Innovative ICT application fields Examples/market snapshots 2010 Internet in the car BMW Connected Drive Route and location information Car remote diagnostic etc. Seamless digital media Intelligent traffic management Centralized ICT based traffic mgmt. Traffic management; traffic congestions alerts Car Online Car-to-car connection Communication/info exchange between individual cars Improved security systems, innovative mobility concepts, commercial services Page 9
  11. 11. ICT meets HealthMedical will be entirely digital. Innovations such as digital pills are underway.While enabling new kinds of applications, implanted microchips raise new privacy issues.Innovative ICT application fields Examples/market snapshots 2010 Integrated information networks Health Network Systems Smart health networks connecting the main participants of the health system Comprises data of medical care and supporting processes DNA sequencing Low cost or free access to the results of complete DNA analysis Innovative value added services/apps based on Smart Health functions Body Chips Connected body implants Nano-robots: medical surgery on a molecular basis Intelligent pills: wireless communication & steering for targeted administration Page 10
  12. 12. ICT in our LivingThings that make life more comforting – augmented reality apps, programmable coffeemachines and mirrors showing the news. The Internet of things becomes ubiquitious.Innovative ICT application fields Examples/market snapshots 2010 Ambient Intelligence Software based decision support Innovative applications based on sensor networks, radio technology, computer processors Holographic moving images & virtual reality Three dimensional moving images and multi-media formats Computed images/synthesized real ICT everywhere world images Semantic search Multi-modal semantic search functionality Significant increase of the quality level and spectrum of search results Page 11
  13. 13. ICTizationICT for everyone, everywhere, in virtually every object – that will be the outstandingcharacteristic of the world of tomorrow. 1 ICT drives innovation in all areas of life, 3 Data and IP centric business the Internet of things will be reality. models transform the economy. 2 ICT becomes a key production and differentiation factor in almost all industries. Page 12
  14. 14. Content3. Think 2032! Page 13
  15. 15. Think 2032! – From Vertical Disintegration to Horizontal IntegrationStandardization and opening of value chain interfaces drive vertical disintegration.Horizontal integration emerges due to proprietary cross-industry interfaces. 2010 2032 Break up of proprietary Life & Transport & Health & interfaces in vertical Energy … living Mobility Environment value chains due to: ICT enabled industry convergence Regulatory pressure IP, open API SalesCo Opportunities to form new proprietary cross-industry horizontal value chain interfaces emerge through: ServCo Digitalization and virtualization of goods ICT enabled automation of business processes Cross-industry economies of scale in sales and marketing NetCo Cost synergies in building, operating and maintaining infrastructure Page 14
  16. 16. Think 2032! – A New Era of ConvergenceThe dynamics of ICT-convergence will expand to industry convergence and create a newindustry structure. 4,1 trillion $ ? trillion $ ICT convergence 2010 ICT enabled industry convergence fields 2032 Fixed- Content/ Energy TC/IT Life & living Transport & Mobility Health & Environment Mobile IP cross-industry SalesCo Business as Consumer ICT a Service Mediation ServCo wholesale Infrastructure as a Service NetCo Page 15
  17. 17. Think 2032!The ICT industry as it exists today will no longer be around in 2032. How do you position for the future industry structure ? For further information please contact Dr. Karl-Michael Henneking Detecon International GmbH Oberkasseler Str. 2 53227 Bonn · Germany Page 16