Five questions for Ogilvy

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Rory Sutherland was so kind to invite us to speak on Persuasion Profiling last week. Most of the participants were part of the #OgilvyChange program.

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  • Little talk about myself: Maurits Kaptein
  • I will be talking about persuasion. Means vs. Ends Distinction.
  • An example of persuasion. 27% more likely. 33% more likely
  • Briefly go through each of the six: Consensus (previous example) Liking (Similarity wallet example) Expertise (Milgram example) Commitment (Sign in garden example) Scarcity (Abundantly available example) Reciprocity (Free books example)
  • They are already used online (Scarcity, Concensus, Scarcity)
  • Important questions
  • Important questions
  • Talk about the google add study
  • Does everyone respond in the same fashion?
  • Talk through the two scenarios.
  • What are persuasion profiles?
  • So for each user its an estimate of what works. Which then can subsequently be used to select content.
  • That basically is new…
  • How do you actually use persuasion profiles?
  • Five questions for Ogilvy

    1. 1. Persuasion Profiling is changing the concept of marketing without you even knowing it! 1Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012
    2. 2. Me Chief Science Officer PersuasionAPI Researcher at: University of Tilburg (Assist. Prof. Statistics) Aalto School of Economics (Post-doc Marketing) Stanford University (Visiting Scholar Communications) 2Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012
    3. 3. Q1: What is Persuasion? Q2: Does that work? Q3: How can we use it? Q4: Are all customers the same? Q5: How can you use Persuasion Profiles?Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012 3
    4. 4. Q1: What is Persuasion? “...a symbolic process in which communicators try to convince other people to change their attitudes or behaviors regarding an issue through the transmission of a message in an atmosphere of free choice.”Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012 4
    5. 5. Q1: Persuasion? • The goal of persuasion is to change someone’s attitudes or behavior.Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012 5 5
    6. 6. Q2: Does that work? • Slide reuse the “Please with “Please reuse “Please reuse towell example towel. your towel” your your towel. Most people Most people reused their who stayed in towel during this room their stay” reused their towel during their stay”Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012 6 6
    7. 7. It’s how you ask… It’s only partly what you want people to do, it’s how you ask it! 7Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012
    8. 8. 6 Principles of Persuasion 8Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012 8 8
    9. 9. Persuasion OnlineBeta Launch presentations Q2 2012 9 9
    10. 10. Q3: How do we use this? Should we use all the persuasion we can think of? 10Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012
    11. 11. Putting “all at once” to the test: 1. “100s of others have taken this study before.” 2. “Professor Ford recommends taking this study.” 3. “There are only 18 hours left to participate in this study.” 1. “100s participated, & Professor Ford recommends it. Only 18 hours left.” 2. “Prof. Ford recommends it, 100s participated, only 18 hours left.” 3. “Only 18 hours left, & Professor Ford recommends it. 100s took it.” 11Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012
    12. 12. No! • Slide with the Clicks onexample towell multi-principle ads: .18 % And on single principle ads: .36%Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012 12 12
    13. 13. Q4: Are we all the same? Should we use the same principles for everyone? 13Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012
    14. 14. 2 Scenarios: Average Average Individuals Individuals - + - + Effect of using a strategy Effect of using a strategyBeta Launch presentations Q2 2012 14 14
    15. 15. We are different, but consistent… 15Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012
    16. 16. Persuasion Profiles Wouldnt you like to know how to adjust your (online) presence in a way that you increase the chance of conversion for each user individually? 16 16Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012
    17. 17. Persuasion Profile: Normal Page: A1 (Scarcity): A2 (Authority): A3 (Consensus): Effect •A persuasion profile is a collection of the estimates of the effect of persuasion principles for each individual user 17 17Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012
    18. 18. It’s a new dimension: 18Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012
    19. 19. Q5: How is it done? How can you use persuasion profiles on your website, in your emails, or in other channels? 19Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012
    20. 20. Step 1: Review your Sales Strategy Implementations Marketeer 20Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012 20
    21. 21. Step 2: You integrate with the PersuasionAPI Cloud Services Your web server PersuasionAPI server 1) Point to PersuasionAPI Service 2) Dynamic adjustments on Page based on PersuasionAPI adviceid 3) Hooks for user behavior monitoring (log event, view event, success event) 21Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012 21
    22. 22. Example of adjusted page •1: Log Client ID (e.g. via dynamic image, cookie, etc) •2. Link(s) to log success of the Sales Strategy •3. Hooks to log non- responsiveness to a Sales Strategy 22Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012 22
    23. 23. Step 3: We log the success Normal Page: A1 (Scarcity): A2 (Authority): A3 (Consensus): Effect • Based on the dynamic image and the link we can monitor the success of each page served to a user. • We will keep updates of the average performance of your served page variations, and of the performance for each client. 23Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012 23
    24. 24. Step 4: We improve our advice Normal Page: A1 (Scarcity): A2 (Authority): A3 (Consensus): Effect • Based on the response of each client we will update our advice for that user • The new advice is a combination of the response of that client, as well as that of other clients 24Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012 24
    25. 25. Step 5: User navigates, we improve First page served: Second page served: Third page served: Normal: Normal: Normal: A1: A1: A1: A2: A2: A2: A3: A3: A3: Effect Effect Effect • And so on, for each individual client... • Real time analytics is most effective in predicting behavior 25Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012 25
    26. 26. Explore vs. Exploit What if it’s the first visit? How much learning do you need? 26Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012
    27. 27. Competing Principles 27Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012 27
    28. 28. It will beat your A/B test… Optimize conversion over time. 28Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012
    29. 29. And we will get better… Optimize the choice of persuasion principles at the level of individual clients 29Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012
    30. 30. The Persuasion Profiling Case… How can you be as successful as the others? 30Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012
    31. 31. Philips Directlife: • Slide with the towell exampleBeta Launch presentations Q2 2012 31 31
    32. 32. Philips Reminder Email • Slide with$), Dear ($ firstname the towell example all is well.  It is $3$ days since the last How are you doing? We hope time you connected your Activity Monitor. [ $ Message $ ] We would like to remind you to connect it to your PC soon and stay in touch with Philips DirectLife Sincerely, The DirectLife Team Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012 32 32
    33. 33. Scarcity Email • Slide with the 1. We would like to remind you to connect it to your PC soon towell example . . . . Today is a great day to start so and stay in touch with make sure you do not miss out on your participation in . . . ! 3. Any chance to connect your Activity Monitor is a chance to learn about your own activities. Take the opportunity to learn about your activities right now.Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012 33 33
    34. 34. Authority Email • Slide with coaches recommend frequent uploads of 1. Experienced the towell example will help you to gain more insight your activity data. This and be more active! 3. Activity experts recommend moderate to high activity on a daily basis and connecting to the . . . platform will help you to reach this target!Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012 34 34
    35. 35. Social Proof Email • Slide with the connect their Activity Monitor 1. People like you who towell examplePC are more likely to benefit from frequently with their the program and obtain a healthy lifestyle! 3. 6. Thousands of people are participating actively in the program and they stay connected at least once a week. Join the group!Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012 35 35
    36. 36. The Setup: • Slide with the towell example 1 . B a s e l in e : U sers assigned to this condition receive the standard message. This message does not contain any No persuasion implementations of persuasion strategies. 2 . B e s t P r e - t e s t e d : U sers assigned to this condition received randomly one of the messages implementing the best average (pre-tested) persuasive strategy. “Best” average persuasive Alternating messages vs. 3 . R a n d o m: U sers assigned to this condition receive Adaptive messages randomly one version of the persuasive message. vs. persuasive Adaptive messages persuasive messages 4 . A d a p t iv e : U sers assigned to this condition receive messages suggested by P ersuasionA P I .Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012 36 36
    37. 37. The Result: 1.0 0.8 Probability of Success Adaptive message 0.6 Original message Pre−tested message Random message 0.4 0.2 0.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Reminder NumberBeta Launch presentations Q2 2012 37 37
    38. 38. The Winner: • Slide with the towell example 1 . B a s e l in e : U sers assigned to this condition receive the standard message. This message does not contain any No persuasion implementations of persuasion strategies. 2 . B e s t P r e - t e s t e d : U sers assigned to this condition received randomly one of the messages implementing the best average (pre-tested) persuasive strategy. “Best” average persuasive Alternating messages vs. 3 . R a n d o m: U sers assigned to this condition receive Adaptive messages randomly one version of the persuasive message. vs. persuasive Adaptive messages persuasive messages 4 . A d a p t iv e : U sers assigned to this condition receive messages suggested by P ersuasionA P I .Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012 38 38
    39. 39. Summarizing the results: • Slide with the Increase example towell in email click-through: (at the 5th reminder) >100%Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012 39 39
    40. 40. Summarizing the results: • Slide with the Increase example towell in email click-through: (at the 5th reminder) >100% Increase in e-commerce revenue: >25%Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012 40 40
    41. 41. Persuasion Profiling Are you ready to Beta? 41 41Beta Launch presentations Q2 2012
    42. 42. Wow! @PersuasionAPI 42

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