Sizing your market A realistic view          Greville Commins  Accelerating Technology Businesses
Not so easy to find the next big marketMost of todays killer applications did not exist10 years ago                       ...
What is market sizing?•   Simply put    •       Number of customers in the market    •       State of market, mature, grow...
Sizing your market                    a realistic view   Is it really possible!      To get a realistic, reliable, credib...
Where do we get our market forecast from?   Talking to customers   Own market research   Analysing competition & altern...
Looking for the right market segment                                    Value of                                    Produc...
Choosing target Market Segments    Low ValueValue ofProducts &ServiceswithinCategoryTargetsegment   High Value            ...
Segments where your profit potential is high     Where      •   The Total Available Market (TAM) is big,      •   You can...
Markets at the right point in their life cycle • At what stage is your chosen market?      Market      stage              ...
Markets at the right point in their life cycle   Is there more growth potential to come?   Time (years) to reach 50Milli...
You need to do some market research   Ask/survey potential customers   Announcements from potential competitors   Run t...
Getting accurate market numbers                         Accelerating Technology Businesses
Getting accurate market numbers                         Accelerating Technology Businesses
Market numbers don’t just make them up!                              Accelerating Technology Businesses
Things you can assume   The real value in freely available information is    hidden away and can be hard to find   Peopl...
Talk to potential customers   First establish why people should talk to you   Form a discovery list of questions      Yo...
The “Lean” approach   A faster way of initiating a business.      Get product into customers hands sooner      Product is...
Interesting web sources   Gather information from independent sources      industry pundits and influencers (articles, bl...
Interesting web sources   Announcements from key market players      Competitor/Customer web sites         Investor rela...
Investor relations pages   Publicly quoted, companies      must give shareholders insight      into the company’s activit...
FinallyWhat’s the1st rule of Fight Club?                            Accelerating Technology Businesses
What’s the1st rule of Fight Club?   ….don’t talk about Fight Club      Don’t reveal your new idea when talking to potenti...
Thank YouGreville Commins Accelerating Technology Businesses
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SCB Networking at the Watershed March 2013 - Sizing the Market Greville Commins

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Advice from Freville on identifying your customers and sizing your market

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SCB Networking at the Watershed March 2013 - Sizing the Market Greville Commins

  1. 1. Sizing your market A realistic view Greville Commins Accelerating Technology Businesses
  2. 2. Not so easy to find the next big marketMost of todays killer applications did not exist10 years ago 50+ killer applications 28 killer 8 applications 5 killer killer applications applications 1985 1995 2005 2015 Source: Malcolm Penn, Future Horizons Accelerating Technology Businesses
  3. 3. What is market sizing?• Simply put • Number of customers in the market • State of market, mature, growing, decline - trends • Customers disposable income/spend • Flexibility of customers, switch suppliers? Loyalty? • A prediction of Total Available Market revenue• Other factors:- • Demographic, Economic, cultural, Technological, Regulatory, Natural Accelerating Technology Businesses
  4. 4. Sizing your market a realistic view Is it really possible! To get a realistic, reliable, credible size? The only thing you can rely on is that your forecast is probably wrong The market decides how big it will be! So what CAN we do? On a limited budget..... Accelerating Technology Businesses
  5. 5. Where do we get our market forecast from? Talking to customers Own market research Analysing competition & alternatives Historical trends & patterns, life cycles Our own gut feel…. Accelerating Technology Businesses
  6. 6. Looking for the right market segment Value of Products & Markets Services within Category with little competition where profit potential is high Locations, Regions, Populations of Market where you can gain market control at the right point in their life cycle Accelerating Technology Businesses
  7. 7. Choosing target Market Segments Low ValueValue ofProducts &ServiceswithinCategoryTargetsegment High Value Locations, Regions, Populations of Market Too Large Too Small Accelerating Technology Businesses
  8. 8. Segments where your profit potential is high  Where • The Total Available Market (TAM) is big, • You can define the number of customers • The cost/time to acquire the customer(s) is definable • You can demonstrate demand for the product Accelerating Technology Businesses
  9. 9. Markets at the right point in their life cycle • At what stage is your chosen market? Market stage Growth Maturity & saturation Introduction Decline timeGeoffrey Moore: Crossing the Chasm Accelerating Technology Businesses
  10. 10. Markets at the right point in their life cycle Is there more growth potential to come? Time (years) to reach 50Million? • Radio = 38 • TV = 13 • Internet =4 Markets are changing all the time • iPod =3 • Facebook =2The evolution of technology & The human racewww.youtube.com/watch?v=JcSzqm5Whwc Accelerating Technology Businesses
  11. 11. You need to do some market research Ask/survey potential customers Announcements from potential competitors Run trials, tests, sampling Research the web, press articles Independent sources Use your own experience Accelerating Technology Businesses
  12. 12. Getting accurate market numbers Accelerating Technology Businesses
  13. 13. Getting accurate market numbers Accelerating Technology Businesses
  14. 14. Market numbers don’t just make them up! Accelerating Technology Businesses
  15. 15. Things you can assume The real value in freely available information is hidden away and can be hard to find People (potential customers) don’t want to give away their knowledge for free/easily Even when you pay for information it can be of questionable value Everyone avoids customer surveys..... Accelerating Technology Businesses
  16. 16. Talk to potential customers First establish why people should talk to you Form a discovery list of questions You need to check/validate market Collect over multiple sessions Ensure you get meaningful data Consult key figures Use “Cascade” Networking approach Experienced people in the industry, academics, consultants. Potential customers – get their feedback Accelerating Technology Businesses
  17. 17. The “Lean” approach A faster way of initiating a business. Get product into customers hands sooner Product is what customer needs Also a good way of doing market research Test the market, validate need Gauge reactions, get feedback Engage with potential customers, ask questions Measure demand Accelerating Technology Businesses
  18. 18. Interesting web sources Gather information from independent sources industry pundits and influencers (articles, blogs, tweets) analysts market research companies Trade show materials government reports,  www.gov.uk,  www.official-documents.gov.uk Accelerating Technology Businesses
  19. 19. Interesting web sources Announcements from key market players Competitor/Customer web sites  Investor relations pages  Press releases/articles Google images Accelerating Technology Businesses
  20. 20. Investor relations pages Publicly quoted, companies must give shareholders insight into the company’s activities. Inside their web sites Look for investor relations sections where you will find • Financial reports • Future strategy • Market forecasts • Shareholder meeting presentations Accelerating Technology Businesses
  21. 21. FinallyWhat’s the1st rule of Fight Club? Accelerating Technology Businesses
  22. 22. What’s the1st rule of Fight Club? ….don’t talk about Fight Club Don’t reveal your new idea when talking to potential customers…. Instead: Verify your understanding of the problemDo not reveal your unique business idea! Accelerating Technology Businesses
  23. 23. Thank YouGreville Commins Accelerating Technology Businesses

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