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R EGIONAL  S CENARIO PLANNING STUDY GENERAL INTRODUCTION TO SCENARIO PLANNING
SCENARIO PLANNING 101: GENERAL OVERVIEW EXPLORATION OF MULTIPLE FUTURES REALITY CHECK ROLL CALL
What is scenario planning? <ul><li>Scenario planning provides a forum, process, set of tools, and measurable outcomes for ...
Why do scenario planning? Study Area <ul><li>Explore the “what if’s” of a region’s future </li></ul><ul><li>Consider the t...
Study Area “ Base Year” “ Future Year” Traditional Approach… Stakeholders carry forward current trends to a pre-defined fu...
Study Area Scenario Planning Approach… “ Base Year” “ Future Year Alternatives” Stakeholders consider several plausible fu...
Study Area B C D Scenario Planning Approach… Stakeholders evaluate competing development alternatives and establish a comm...
Study Area Evaluate the Alternatives… The different futures (alternatives) can be compared with one another or evaluated o...
Study Area <ul><li>Atlanta Regional Commission </li></ul><ul><li>Nashville, TN </li></ul><ul><li>Memphis, TN </li></ul><ul...
SCENARIO PLANNING TOOLKIT: PLANNING PROCESS AVAILABLE TOOLS KEY STAKEHOLDERS
Study Area Growth Allocation Reality Check Synthesize Growth Scenarios Land Suitability Analysis Resource Maps Public Outr...
Study Area Scenario Planning Software Development Chip Game Regional TDM Focus Area Studies Project Website Growth Forecasts
Study Area <ul><li>Regional Planning Agencies </li></ul><ul><li>County  Governments </li></ul><ul><li>Local Cities & Towns...
THE END GAME: THE BIG QUESTIONS SHARING THE RESULTS LINKAGE TO OTHER PLANNING INITIATIVES
Study Area <ul><li>How big do we want to be? </li></ul><ul><li>Where do we want to grow? </li></ul><ul><li>Are we growing ...
Study Area The outcomes of the plan are shared in graphical and data-intensive forms to clearly communicate ideas and find...
Study Area <ul><li>Regional Plans </li></ul><ul><li>-  Long Range Transportation Plan </li></ul><ul><li>-  State of the Re...
R EGIONAL  S CENARIO PLANNING STUDY GENERAL INTRODUCTION TO SCENARIO PLANNING NOVEMBER 5, 2009
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General Introduction to Scenario Planning

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Transcript of "General Introduction to Scenario Planning"

  1. 1. R EGIONAL S CENARIO PLANNING STUDY GENERAL INTRODUCTION TO SCENARIO PLANNING
  2. 2. SCENARIO PLANNING 101: GENERAL OVERVIEW EXPLORATION OF MULTIPLE FUTURES REALITY CHECK ROLL CALL
  3. 3. What is scenario planning? <ul><li>Scenario planning provides a forum, process, set of tools, and measurable outcomes for communities of all sizes to contemplate future possibilities. </li></ul>Study Area Regional Applications of Scenario Planning include: <ul><li>Strategic Development Plans </li></ul><ul><li>Long Range Transportation Plans </li></ul><ul><li>Capital Improvements Prioritization </li></ul><ul><li>Growth Audits </li></ul>
  4. 4. Why do scenario planning? Study Area <ul><li>Explore the “what if’s” of a region’s future </li></ul><ul><li>Consider the tradeoffs between different </li></ul><ul><li>growth scenarios or policy decisions </li></ul><ul><li>Re-frame local growth questions </li></ul><ul><li>Answer what, where, when, and how growth </li></ul><ul><li>should occur to meet a common vision </li></ul>“ We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used to create them.” -- Albert Einstein
  5. 5. Study Area “ Base Year” “ Future Year” Traditional Approach… Stakeholders carry forward current trends to a pre-defined future planning horizon (i.e., business-as-usual).
  6. 6. Study Area Scenario Planning Approach… “ Base Year” “ Future Year Alternatives” Stakeholders consider several plausible futures for a region assuming a pre-defined planning horizon.
  7. 7. Study Area B C D Scenario Planning Approach… Stakeholders evaluate competing development alternatives and establish a common vision for regional policies and decision-making related to new growth and anticipated changes in the region. A
  8. 8. Study Area Evaluate the Alternatives… The different futures (alternatives) can be compared with one another or evaluated on their own merits with regard to many different quantitative and qualitative measures ranging from cost (or allocation of resources) in dollars to effects on transportation, open space, schools, and community facilities
  9. 9. Study Area <ul><li>Atlanta Regional Commission </li></ul><ul><li>Nashville, TN </li></ul><ul><li>Memphis, TN </li></ul><ul><li>Charleston, SC (BCD COG) </li></ul><ul><li>Durham, NC </li></ul><ul><li>And many others… </li></ul>Regions, cities, counties, and towns throughout the nation and nearby are doing scenario planning:
  10. 10. SCENARIO PLANNING TOOLKIT: PLANNING PROCESS AVAILABLE TOOLS KEY STAKEHOLDERS
  11. 11. Study Area Growth Allocation Reality Check Synthesize Growth Scenarios Land Suitability Analysis Resource Maps Public Outreach Concept Maps Trend Analysis Scenario Analysis Model Calibration
  12. 12. Study Area Scenario Planning Software Development Chip Game Regional TDM Focus Area Studies Project Website Growth Forecasts
  13. 13. Study Area <ul><li>Regional Planning Agencies </li></ul><ul><li>County Governments </li></ul><ul><li>Local Cities & Towns </li></ul><ul><ul><li>- Elected and Appointed Officials </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>- Local Staff </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Business and Real Estate Professionals </li></ul><ul><li>Public Institutions </li></ul><ul><li>General Public </li></ul>Who can be Involved in a Regional Scenario Planning Study?
  14. 14. THE END GAME: THE BIG QUESTIONS SHARING THE RESULTS LINKAGE TO OTHER PLANNING INITIATIVES
  15. 15. Study Area <ul><li>How big do we want to be? </li></ul><ul><li>Where do we want to grow? </li></ul><ul><li>Are we growing sustainably? </li></ul><ul><li>Can we pay for our growth? </li></ul><ul><li>Are we still be proud of where we live? </li></ul>Scenario planning helps to answer the big questions:
  16. 16. Study Area The outcomes of the plan are shared in graphical and data-intensive forms to clearly communicate ideas and findings to a broad cross section of people and to increase the utility of the findings for local and regional staff in decision-making.
  17. 17. Study Area <ul><li>Regional Plans </li></ul><ul><li>- Long Range Transportation Plan </li></ul><ul><li>- State of the Region Report </li></ul><ul><li>Local Government Plans </li></ul><ul><li>- Comprehensive Plan </li></ul><ul><li>Zoning & Subdivision Ordinances </li></ul><ul><li>Capital Improvements Plan </li></ul>
  18. 18. R EGIONAL S CENARIO PLANNING STUDY GENERAL INTRODUCTION TO SCENARIO PLANNING NOVEMBER 5, 2009
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