GOLD PRICE TREND ANALYSIS
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GOLD PRICE TREND ANALYSIS

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GOLD PRICE TREND ANALYSIS GOLD PRICE TREND ANALYSIS Document Transcript

  • GOLD PRICE TREND ANALYSIS GOLD PRICE HISTORY: Table 1 shows the average price of gold (10gms) as per each year… TABLE 1: GOLD PRICE 1926-2012 year price of gold(10 gm) Rs year price of gold(10 gm) Rs year price of gold(10 gm) Rs 1926 18.43 1955 79.78 1984 1970.00 1927 18.37 1956 90.81 1985 2130.00 1928 18.37 1957 90.62 1986 2140.00 1929 18.43 1958 95.38 1987 2570.00 1930 18.05 1959 102.56 1988 3130.00 1931 18.18 1960 111.87 1989 3140.00 1932 23.06 1961 119.35 1990 3200.00 1933 24.05 1962 119.75 1991 3466.00 1934 28.81 1963 97.00 1992 4334.00 1935 30.81 1964 63.25 1993 4140.00 1936 29.81 1965 71.75 1994 5598.00 1937 30.18 1966 83.75 1995 4680.00 1938 29.93 1967 102.50 1996 5160.00 1939 31.74 1968 162.00 1997 4725.00 1940 36.04 1969 176.00 1998 4045.00 1941 37.43 1970 184.50 1999 4234.00 1942 44.05 1971 193.00 2000 4400.00 1943 51.05 1972 202.00 2001 4300.00 1944 52.93 1973 278.50 2002 4990.00 1945 62.00 1974 506.00 2003 5600.00 1946 83.87 1975 540.00 2004 5850.00
  • 1947 88.62 1976 432.00 2005 7000.00 1948 95.87 1977 486.00 2006 8400.00 1949 94.17 1978 685.00 2007 10800.00 1950 99.18 1979 937.00 2008 12500.00 1951 98.05 1980 1330.00 2009 14500.00 1952 76.81 1981 1800.00 2010 18500.00 1953 73.06 1982 1645.00 2011 26400.00 1954 77.75 1983 1800.00 2012 30680.00 PREDICTING GOLD PRICE TREND Values tabulated are analysed through ORIGIN software. The regression equation is found in nine degree polynomial for less error percentage. As degree of polynomial increase error percentage also decreases.
  • year measured value predicted value error error percentage 1926 18.43 74.47 -56.04 -304.05 1927 18.37 13.51 4.86 26.46 1928 18.37 -15.61 33.98 184.98 1929 18.43 -23.00 41.43 224.78 1930 18.05 -16.63 34.68 192.13 1931 18.18 -2.65 20.83 114.57 1932 23.06 14.39 8.67 37.60 1933 24.05 31.26 -7.21 -29.96 1934 28.81 45.83 -17.02 -59.09 1935 30.81 56.90 -26.09 -84.68 1936 29.81 63.95 -34.14 -114.52 1937 30.18 67.02 -36.84 -122.06 1938 29.93 66.55 -36.62 -122.34 1939 31.74 63.24 -31.50 -99.23 1940 36.04 57.95 -21.91 -60.79 1941 37.43 51.61 -14.18 -37.89 1942 44.05 45.13 -1.08 -2.45 1943 51.05 39.34 11.71 22.94 1944 52.93 34.95 17.98 33.97 1945 62.00 32.52 29.48 47.55 1946 83.87 32.42 51.45 61.35 1947 88.62 34.84 53.78 60.69 1948 95.87 39.79 56.08 58.50 1949 94.17 47.11 47.06 49.98 1950 99.18 56.46 42.72 43.07 1951 98.05 67.41 30.64 31.25 1952 76.81 79.38 -2.57 -3.35 1953 73.06 91.77 -18.71 -25.61 1954 77.75 103.91 -26.16 -33.65 1955 79.78 115.16 -35.38 -44.34 1956 90.81 124.91 -34.10 -37.55 1957 90.62 132.66 -42.04 -46.39 1958 95.38 137.99 -42.61 -44.68 1959 102.56 140.67 -38.11 -37.16 1960 111.87 140.62 -28.75 -25.70 1961 119.35 137.97 -18.62 -15.60 1962 119.75 133.09 -13.34 -11.14 1963 97.00 126.56 -29.56 -30.47
  • 1964 63.25 119.20 -55.95 -88.46 1965 71.75 112.08 -40.33 -56.21 1966 83.75 106.48 -22.73 -27.14 1967 102.50 103.89 -1.39 -1.35 1968 162.00 105.97 56.03 34.58 1969 176.00 114.55 61.45 34.92 1970 184.50 131.53 52.97 28.71 1971 193.00 158.89 34.11 17.68 1972 202.00 198.58 3.42 1.69 1973 278.50 252.53 25.97 9.33 1974 506.00 322.49 183.51 36.27 1975 540.00 410.05 129.95 24.06 1976 432.00 516.52 -84.52 -19.56 1977 486.00 642.86 -156.86 -32.28 1978 685.00 789.63 -104.63 -15.27 1979 937.00 956.92 -19.92 -2.13 1980 1330.00 1144.28 185.72 13.96 1981 1800.00 1350.68 449.32 24.96 1982 1645.00 1574.48 70.52 4.29 1983 1800.00 1813.40 -13.40 -0.74 1984 1970.00 2064.52 -94.52 -4.80 1985 2130.00 2324.29 -194.29 -9.12 1986 2140.00 2588.63 -448.63 -20.96 1987 2570.00 2852.94 -282.94 -11.01 1988 3130.00 3112.29 17.71 0.57 1989 3140.00 3361.52 -221.52 -7.05 1990 3200.00 3595.50 -395.50 -12.36 1991 3466.00 3809.39 -343.39 -9.91 1992 4334.00 3998.93 335.07 7.73 1993 4140.00 4160.88 -20.88 -0.50 1994 5598.00 4293.44 1304.56 23.30 1995 4680.00 4396.88 283.12 6.05 1996 5160.00 4474.09 685.91 13.29 1997 4725.00 4531.39 193.61 4.10 1998 4045.00 4579.35 -534.35 -13.21 1999 4234.00 4633.78 -399.78 -9.44 2000 4400.00 4716.77 -316.77 -7.20 2001 4300.00 4858.02 -558.02 -12.98 2002 4990.00 5096.13 -106.13 -2.13 2003 5600.00 5480.18 119.82 2.14
  • 2004 5850.00 6071.45 -221.45 -3.79 2005 7000.00 6945.30 54.70 0.78 2006 8400.00 8193.26 206.74 2.46 2007 10800.00 9925.36 874.64 8.10 2008 12500.00 12272.64 227.36 1.82 2009 14500.00 15389.90 -889.90 -6.14 2010 18500.00 19458.75 -958.75 -5.18 2011 26400.00 24690.86 1709.14 6.47 2012 30680.00 31331.57 -651.57 -2.12 REGRESSION EQUATION FOR GOLD PRICE Y= 179.7996 - 132.36955X + 29.70075 X2 -2.78982 X3 + 0.12835 X4 -0.00286 X5 + 2.07809E- 5 X6 + 2.77131E-7 X7 -5.64143E-9 X8 +2.66379E-11 X9 Where, X = (YEAR-1925)+(DAYS/365) FOR EXAMPLE IF U WANT TO FIND 26TH DAY OF 1987 X = (1987-1925)+(26/365) = 62.073 APPLY X=62.073 IN REGRESSION EQUATION Y = 2829.411 RS. BY SATISH KUMAR NAGARAJAN