institute for economics and peace    global    peace    index    2012                                    1
The Institute forEconomics and Peace                                       globalQuantifying peaceand its benefits        ...
ContentsContentsMethodology,                                                Risers and fallers                            ...
HIGHLIGHTS                  the main developments in 2012                            deteriorations in several measures of...
2012global peaceindex rankingsmost peacefulleast peaceful    no data    Rank      Country          Score                  ...
Constructing the                                                                                                          ...
Constructing theindex                                                                                                     ...
Analysis of                                                                                                               ...
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2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
2012 Global Peace Index Report
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2012 Global Peace Index Report

  1. 1. institute for economics and peace global peace index 2012 1
  2. 2. The Institute forEconomics and Peace globalQuantifying peaceand its benefits peace indexThe Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) is anindependent, non-partisan, non-profit research 2012organization dedicated to shifting the world’s focus topeace as a positive, achievable, and tangible measureof human well-being and progress. IEP achieves its goals by developing new This is the sixth edition of the Global Peace Index peaceful environments.conceptual frameworks to define peacefulness; (GPI), which ranks nations according to their level In the spirit of deepening knowledge andproviding metrics for measurement; uncovering the of peacefulness. It is composed of 23 qualitative and understanding of the relative peacefulness of nations,relationship between peace, business and prosperity; quantitative indicators from highly respected sources, IEP has developed the first known attempt to quantifyand by promoting a better understanding of the which gauge three broad themes: the level of safety measures of positive peace through the Positive Peacecultural, economic and political factors that drive and security in society; the extent of domestic or Index (PPI). This study measures the strength of thepeacefulness. international conflict; and the degree of militarisation. attitudes, institutions, and structures within nations IEP has offices in Sydney, New York, and The 2012 GPI has been expanded to rank 158 which sustain peace. This provides a frameworkWashington, D.C. It works with a wide range of independent states and updated with the latest to determine a nation’s institutional capacity andpartners internationally and collaborates with available figures and information. resilience to fundamentally create and maintain aintergovernmental organizations on measuring and This year’s report is divided into three main peaceful society.communicating the economic value of peace. sections; the first is the methodology, results and findings from the 2012 index, the second is an analysis of trends in peacefulness since the inception of the GPI in 2007, and the final section is IEP’s firstFor more information: attempt at defining a Positive Peace Index.www.economicsandpeace.org The methodology, results and findings sectionwww.visionofhumanity.org provides highlights for the ten most and least peaceful countries, as well as for the five most improved and five most deteriorated over the one-year period. Indicator sources and weights are provided along with explanation on the changes to the methodology. The trends in peacefulness analysis tracks key global trends in peace over the past six years and utilises the GPI’s comprehensive 23 indicator dataset to understand nuanced changes in the many multidimensional aspects of peace. The data has been evaluated against many other socio-economic factors to understand key correlations and associations with2 3
  3. 3. ContentsContentsMethodology, Risers and fallers 52Results Indicator trends 52and Findings Correlation trends 56Highlights 7 Corruption 582012 Global Peace Index rankings 8 GDP per capita 60Constructing the Index 10 Quintile analysis 63 Measuring states of peace 10 The research team 10 Positive The indicators 11 Peace Index Changes to the methodology 2012 12 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 67Analysis of the results 13 Introduction 69 Regional overview 13 Why a Positive Peace Index? 70 The ten countries most at peace 18 Methodology 71 The ten countries least at peace 23 Results 80 Risers and fallers 29 Positive peace gap 81 Top-five national improvements in peacefulness 29 Positive peace deficit case study 90 Top-five national deteriorations in peacefulness 31 Positive peace by region 93Methodological notes 34 Positive peace by income group 101 Weighting the Index 34 Qualitative scoring 35 Positive peace by government type 102 Positive peace by indicator domain 104Trends in Trends in individual positive peace indicators 107Peacefulness Conclusion 109Highlights 37 Annex ATrends in peacefulness from 2009-2012 38 GPI indicator sources, definitions and scoring criteria 110Methodology of trend analysis 40Twenty year trends 40 Annex BOverall trend 45 socio - economic factors 122 By region 45 References 127 Sub-Saharan Africa 46 Endnotes 128 By government type 50Internal Peacefulness 514 5
  4. 4. HIGHLIGHTS the main developments in 2012 deteriorations in several measures of militarisation. Sri Lanka experienced the greatest improvement in its Calculating the 2012 Global Peace Index (GPI) by overall peacefulness, following the ending of decades examining 23 indicators across 158 countries reveals of civil war. that the world has become slightly more peaceful War-ravaged Somalia remains the country least in the past year. This follows two consecutive years at peace in 2012 for the second successive year, when an overall decline in peacefulness was observed; with ongoing conflict in several regions (with the many countries experienced growing instability and notable exception of Somaliland). Afghanistan’s score METHODOLOGY heightened disharmony linked to rapid rises in food, deteriorated and it dropped to the second-lowest fuel, and commodity prices and the global economic position. Syria’s descent into civil war caused its score downturn. to deteriorate by the largest margin and it dropped by RESULTS There were improvements in the overall scores across all regions, apart from the Middle East and 31 places, to 147th position. Among the GPI indicators, ‘Level of perceived & FINDINGS North Africa, where many countries experienced criminality in society’ registered the largest year-on- waves of uprisings, protests and revolutions, sparked year change from the 2011 GPI, showing a substantial by the Arab Spring. GPI scores deteriorated most deterioration. The five indicators showing the most sharply in Syria, Egypt and Tunisia. The Asia- significant year-on-year deterioration were all Pacific region experienced the largest average rise in measures of the security situation and reflected the peacefulness, with the most significant gains in Sri upheaval and turmoil that has rippled across the Arab Lanka, Bhutan, Philippines and Nepal. Sub-Saharan world and beyond. The Political Terror Scale showed the greatest Syria’s descent into civil war caused improvement and there were gains in several its score to deteriorate by the largest indicators of militarisation as defence budgets were margin and it dropped by 31 places, to squeezed. 147th position. Africa became slightly more peaceful, with notable improvements in Zimbabwe, Madagascar and Gabon and, for the first time since the GPI was launched in 2007, it is not the least peaceful region—that dubious honour falls to the Middle East and North Africa this year. Iceland is, for the second successive year, the country most at peace, followed by Denmark and New Zealand. Small, stable democracies again dominate the top ten. Qatar is the highest-placed Middle-Eastern country (and non-democracy), in 12th position. Bhutan moved into the top 20 for the first time, mainly as a result of easing tensions surrounding ethnic Nepali refugees. Norway dropped out of the top ten to 18th position, the result of the violent attack by Anders Breivik in July 2011, killing 77 and injuring more than 300. Norway also saw6 7
  5. 5. 2012global peaceindex rankingsmost peacefulleast peaceful no data Rank Country Score Rank Country Score 1 Iceland 1.113 29 United Kingdom 1.609 56 Djibouti 1.881 85 Ecuador 2.028 109 Belarus 2.208 137 Ethiopia 2.504 2 Denmark 1.239 30 Chile 1.616 58 Mongolia 1.884 85 Swaziland 2.028 110 Uzbekistan 2.219 138 Burundi 2.524 2 New Zealand 1.239 31 Botswana 1.621 59 Oman 1.887 87 Equatorial Guinea 2.039 111 Egypt 2.220 139 Myanmar 2.525 4 Canada 1.317 32 Romania 1.627 60 Malawi 1.894 88 United States of 111 El Salvador 2.220 140 Zimbabwe 2.538 5 Japan 1.326 33 Uruguay 1.628 61 Panama 1.899 America 2.058 113 Jamaica 2.222 141 Georgia 2.541 6 34 Vietnam 1.641 62 Jordan 1.905 89 China 2.061 114 Benin 2.231 142 India 2.549 Austria 1.328 6 35 Croatia 1.648 63 Indonesia 1.913 90 Dominican 115 Armenia 2.238 143 Yemen 2.601 Ireland 1.328 36 Costa Rica 1.659 64 Republic 2.068 116 144 8 Slovenia 1.330 Serbia 1.920 Niger 2.241 Colombia 2.625 37 91 Bangladesh 2.071 9 Finland 1.348 Laos 1.662 65 Bosnia and 117 Turkmenistan 2.242 145 Chad 2.671 38 Herzegovina 1.923 92 Guinea 2.073 10 Switzerland 1.349 Italy 1.690 118 Bahrain 2.247 146 Nigeria 2.801 66 93 Papua New 11 Belgium 1.376 39 Bulgaria 1.699 Albania 1.927 119 Rwanda 2.250 147 Libya 2.830 66 Guinea 2.076 12 Qatar 1.395 40 France 1.710 Moldova 1.927 120 Kenya 2.252 147 Syria 2.830 94 Trinidad and 13 41 Estonia 1.715 68 Macedonia (FYR) 1.935 121 Algeria 2.255 149 Pakistan 2.833 Czech Republic 1.396 Tobago 2.082 14 42 South Korea 1.734 69 Guyana 1.937 122 Eritrea 2.264 150 Israel 2.842 Sweden 1.419 95 Angola 2.105 15 43 Lithuania 1.741 70 Cuba 1.951 123 Venezuela 2.278 151 Central African Germany 1.424 95 Guinea-Bissau 2.105 16 44 Argentina 1.763 71 Ukraine 1.953 124 Guatemala 2.287 Republic 2.872 Portugal 1.470 97 Cameroon 2.113 17 45 Latvia 1.774 72 Tunisia 1.955 125 Mauritania 2.301 152 North Korea 2.932 Hungary 1.476 98 Uganda 2.121 18 46 United Arab 73 Cyprus 1.957 126 Thailand 2.303 153 Russia 2.938 Norway 1.480 99 Madagascar 2.124 Emirates 1.785 74 Gambia 1.961 127 154 Democratic 19 Bhutan 1.481 99 Tajikistan 2.124 South Africa 2.321 47 Kuwait 1.792 75 Gabon 1.972 Republic of the 20 Malaysia 1.485 101 Liberia 2.131 128 Iran 2.324 48 Mozambique 1.796 76 Paraguay 1.973 Congo 3.073 21 Mauritius 1.487 102 Mali 2.132 129 Honduras 2.339 49 Namibia 1.804 77 155 Iraq 3.192 22 Australia 1.494 Greece 1.976 103 130 Turkey 2.344 Sri Lanka 2.145 156 Sudan 3.193 50 Ghana 1.807 78 Senegal 1.994 131 23 Singapore 1.521 104 Republic Kyrgyz Republic 2.359 51 Zambia 1.830 79 157 Afghanistan 3.252 24 Peru 1.995 of Congo 2.148 132 Azerbaijan 2.360 Poland 1.524 158 Somalia 3.392 52 Sierra Leone 1.855 80 Nepal 2.001 105 25 Spain 1.548 Kazakhstan 2.151 133 Philippines 2.415 53 Lesotho 1.864 81 Montenegro 2.006 106 26 Slovakia 1.590 Saudi Arabia 2.178 134 Cote d’Ivoire 2.419 54 Morocco 1.867 81 Nicaragua 2.006 107 27 Taiwan 1.602 Haiti 2.179 135 Mexico 2.445 55 Tanzania 1.873 83 Brazil 2.017 108 28 Netherlands 1.606 Cambodia 2.207 136 Lebanon 2.459 56 Burkina Faso 1.881 84 Bolivia 2.0218 9
  6. 6. Constructing the indexConstructingthe indexMeasuring states of peace a range of potential determinants, or “drivers”, which Peace Research (AIPAZ), Madrid, Spain Societal safety may influence the creation and nurturance of peaceful and security Dr Ekaterina StepanovaPeace is notoriously difficult to define. Perhaps the societies, both internally and externally. Level of perceived criminality in societysimplest way of approaching it is in terms of harmony Head, Unit on Peace and Conflict Studies, Institute Qualitative assessment by Economist Intelligence Unitachieved by the absence of war or conflict. Applied to of the World Economy and International Relations analystsnations, this would suggest that those not involved in The research team (IMEMO), Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow.violent conflicts with neighbouring states or suffering The GPI was founded by Steve Killelea, an Australianinternal wars have achieved a state of peace, which Number of refugees and displaced people as a technology entrepreneur and philanthropist. It is The indicatorshas been described as a “negative peace”. percentage of the population produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace. In attempting to gauge peacefulness, the GPI The GPI is collated and calculated by the Economist UNHCR Statistical Yearbook and the Internal The GPI comprises 23 indicators measuring theinvestigates the extent to which countries are involved Intelligence Unit, with whom sections of this report Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) absence of voilence or fear of voilence. Selected within ongoing domestic and international conflicts. It are written in co-operation. the assistance of an international panel of independent Political instabilityalso seeks to evaluate the level of harmony or discord experts. All scores for each indicator are “banded”, Qualitative assessment by Economist Intelligence UnitAN ADDITIONAL AIM OF THE GPI IS TO EXPLORE An international panel of independent experts played either on a scale of 1-5 (for qualitative indicators) or analystsTHE CONCEPT OF A “POSITIVE PEACE”. a key role in establishing the Global Peace Index in 1-9 (for quantitative data). The Economist Intelligence 2007—in selecting the indicators that best assess a Unit’s team of country analysts has scored eight Political Terror Scalewithin a nation; ten indicators broadly assess what nation’s level of peace and in assigning a weighting to of the nine qualitative indicators. They have also Qualitative assessment of Amnesty International andmight be described as safety and security in society. each of them. The panel has overseen each edition of provided estimates where there have been gaps in US Department of State yearly reportsThe assertion is that low crime rates, minimal the GPI; this year, it included: the quantitative data. A detailed explanation of theincidences of terrorist acts and violent demonstrations, Terrorist acts scoring criteria used for each indicator is supplied inharmonious relations with neighbouring countries, Global Terrorism Database, University of Marylanda stable political scene and a small proportion of the Professor Kevin P. Clements, chairperson Annex A. and Institute for Economics and Peacepopulation being internally displaced or refugees can Foundation Chair of Peace and Conflict Studies and Director, National Centre for Peace and Conflict Ongoing domestic and Number of homicides per 100,000 peoplebe equated with peacefulness. international conflict United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) Eight further indicators are related to a country’s Studies, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand Number of external and internal conflicts foughtmilitary build-up—reflecting the assertion that Dr Ian Anthony Level of violent crime Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), Universitythe level of militarisation and access to weapons is Research co-ordinator and Leader of the Arms Qualitative assessment by Economist Intelligence Unit of Uppsala, Sweden and the Centre for the Study ofdirectly linked to how at peace a country feels, both Control and Non-proliferation Programme, analysts Civil War at PRIO (International Peace Researchdomestically and internationally. Comparable data on Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Institute Oslo) Likelihood of violent demonstrationsmilitary expenditure as a percentage of GDP and the (SIPRI), Swedennumber of armed service officers per head are gauged, Qualitative assessment by Economist Intelligence Unit Estimated number of deaths from organised conflictas are financial contributions to UN peacekeeping Professor Sultan Barakat (external) analystsmissions. Director, Post-war Reconstruction and Development UCDP, University of Uppsala, Sweden and the Centre Number of jailed population per 100,000 people An additional aim of the GPI is to explore the Unit (PRDU), Department of Politics, University of for the Study of Civil War at PRIO International Centre for Prison Studies, University ofconcept of a “positive peace”. Various studies have York, United Kingdom Essexproposed that a culture of peace might be based Number of deaths from organised conflict (internal) Mr Nick Grono International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)on human rights, gender equality, democratic Number of internal security officers and police per Deputy President International Crisis Group (ICG), Armed Conflict Databaseparticipation, tolerant solidarity, open communication 100,000 people Brussels, Belgiumand international security. However, these links Level of organised conflict (internal) UNODCbetween peace and its causes tend to be presumed, Dr Toshiya Hoshino Qualitative assessment by Economist Intelligence Unitrather than systematically measured. This report also Professor, Osaka School of International Public Militarisation analystsexamines relationships between the GPI and reliable Policy, Osaka University, Japan Military expenditure as a percentage of GDPinternational measures, including democracy and Relations with neighbouring countries IISS, The Military Balance Dr Manuela Mesa Qualitative assessment by Economist Intelligencetransparency, education and material wellbeing. As Director, Centre for Education and Peace Research Unit analystssuch, it seeks to understand the relative importance of (CEIPAZ) and President, Spanish Association for10 11
  7. 7. Constructing theindex Analysis of the ResultsNumber of armed-services personnel per 100,000 Maryland, would be a useful addition to the GPI. This Regional overview Western Overall Overall Regionalpeople year it has been included (named Terrorist acts) and it Europe Rank Score RankIISS, The Military Balance replaces the qualitative indicator Potential for terrorist Western Europe remains markedly the most peaceful Belgium 11 1.38 7 acts, which was scored by Economist Intelligence region, with the majority of the countries in thisVolume of transfers of major conventional weapons group ranking in the top 20 overall. The average GPI Sweden 14 1.42 8 Unit analysts. The weighting of this indicator wasas recipient (imports) per 100,000 people score in 2011 for the region improved slightly, after Germany 15 1.42 9 increased from 1 to 2.Stockholm International Peace Research Institute The remaining eight qualitative indicators that are deteriorations in the two previous years associated Portugal 16 1.47 10(SIPRI) Arms Transfers Database scored by Economist Intelligence Unit analysts refer with the global financial and economic crisis. Between Norway 18 1.48 11 to the period 16th March 2011 to 15th March 2012, 2007 (the first year of the GPI) and 2009 the region Spain 25 1.55 12 in line with the approach last year, when the review became more peaceful. Norway dropped out of Netherlands 28 1.61 13Volume of transfers of major conventional weapons period was amended to take account of the events that the top ten for the first time, to 18th position, the Unitedas supplier (exports) per 100,000 people unfolded in the Middle East and North Africa last result of the violent attack by Anders Breivik in July Kingdom 29 1.61 14SIPRI Arms Transfers Database spring. 2011, killing 77 and injuring more than 300. There Italy 38 1.69 15 The panel recommended that the weighting of were also deteriorations in several GPI gauges of theFinancial contribution to UN peacekeeping missions France 40 1.71 16 ‘Level of perceived criminality’ in society should be country’s militarisation. Three Nordic nations areUnited Nations Committee on Contributions and Cyprus 73 1.96 17 reduced from 4 to 3. The scoring system for ‘Military again ranked in the GPI’s top ten, with high levels ofInstitute for Economics and Peace Greece 77 1.98 18 expenditure as a percentage of GDP’ was adjusted safety and security indicating broadly harmoniousAggregate weighted number of heavy weapons per societies, free from civil conflict. Average 23 1.50 from bandings of 0.5 to a sliding scale of 0.1 to100,000 people provide a more precise coverage. Sweden ranks lower than its ScandinavianIISS, The Military Balance and Institute for Economics neighbours (14th) on account of its thriving arms- Greece’s score deteriorated for the fourth successive This brings the total coverage in the 2012and Peace manufacturing industry and the volume of exports of year, and by the second-largest margin in the GPI to 158 nations, encompassing more conventional weapons. As in previous editions of the region, behind Norway, with an increasing riskEase of access to small arms and light weapons than 99% of the world’s population. GPI, the majority of the Western European nations of demonstrations and rises in the level of violentQualitative assessment by Economist Intelligence Unit The scores for 10 countries for ‘Number of recorded only small year-on-year changes to their crime linked to the ongoing sovereign debt crisis andanalysts homicides per 100,000’ people were “smoothed” scores. Spain experienced the largest improvement, spiralling unemployment. It tumbled to 77th position,Military capability/sophistication owing to the availability of new and more reliable in part owing to the Basque separatist group, ETA, replacing Cyprus as the lowest-ranked nation inQualitative assessment by Economist Intelligence data. This has reduced some substantial movements announcing a “definitive cessation” to its campaign the region, in spite of an austerity-induced sharpUnit analysts in scores that may not accurately reflect conditions in of bombings and shootings, which lasted for more drop in military expenditure. Very large numbers of a country and could lead to false assumptions being than 40 years and killed more than 800 people. The heavy weapons per head in both Greece and Cyprus made. Political Terror Scale also registered an improvement continue to contribute to their relatively high overallchanges to the methodology 2012 Data for ‘Number of external and internal in Spain and there was a drop in military expenditure scores and low ranks. The UK and France have conflicts fought’ remains the same as those used in the as austerity measures kicked in. Switzerland’s score been accorded low positions compared with theirThe advisory panel that oversees the compilation of 2011 GPI owing to methodological issues concerning improved by the second-largest margin in the region neighbouring countries in previous editions of thethe GPI agreed to include five additional countries the latest data. and the country moved into the top ten for the first GPI, owing to their sophisticated military spheres,in the 2012 edition: Benin, Djibouti, Guinea-Bissau, time. substantial arms exports, involvement in externalLesotho and Mauritius. This brings the total coverage conflicts and relatively high homicide rates. This year,in the 2012 GPI to 158 nations, encompassing more Western Overall Overall Regional the UK’s score improved slightly, although it droppedthan 99% of the world’s population. Europe Rank Score Rank to 29th place, with falls in military expenditure and Subsequent editions of the GPI will include other Iceland 1 1.11 1 an improvement in its rank in the Political Terrornations, but not micro-states; the panel and the Denmark 2 1.24 2 Scale just outweighing mounting political instability,compilers agreed that countries covered by the GPI an increased likelihood of violent demonstrations andmust either have a population of more than 1 million Austria 6 1.33 3 a rise in violent crime linked to a spate of riots andor a land area greater than 20,000 square kilometers. Ireland 6 1.33 3 disturbances in August 2011. The panel recommended that the Global Terrorism Finland 9 1.35 5 North America experienced a slightDatabase, an authoritative and up-to-date quantitative Switzerland 10 1.35 6 improvement, continuing a trend since 2007. Theremeasure of terrorist acts compiled by the University of12 13
  8. 8. Analysis of Analysis ofthe results the resultswas an upturn in Canada’s score and ranking (to Boris Tadic; a pro-EU coalition presided over a Central scene. Ongoing internal conflicts and related securityfourth position) as a result of a reduction in the modest economic recovery in 2011. There were also and Eastern Overall Overall Regional concerns in Afghanistan and Pakistan explain theirnumber of deaths from external conflict (fewer improvements in some of Serbia’s GPI measures of Europe Rank Score Rank continued presence in the bottom ten of the GPI. Thecasualties among Canadian troops stationed in militarisation. Kazakhstan 105 2.15 20 lowly positions of North Korea (152nd) and MyanmarAfghanistan). The US’s overall score also improved Tajikistan heads the Caucasian and Central Asian (139th) reflect tense security situations and very high Belarus 109 2.21 21slightly, although it slipped seven places to 88th nations for the first time, in 99th position, amid an levels of militarisation, although both experienced Uzbekistan 110 2.22 22position as a result of larger gains in several countries improving security situation and a decline in military improvements and more benign environments in 2011. Armenia 115 2.24 23previously ranked below it. The US’s fairly low rank expenditure to a very low level. Kyrgyz Republiclargely reflects much higher levels of militarisation experienced the largest deterioration in peacefulness, Turkmenistan 117 2.24 24 Asia- Overall Overall Regionaland involvement in external conflicts than its northern with a decline in respect for human rights (the Turkey 130 2.34 25 Pacific Rank Score Rankneighbour. Several measures of societal safety and Political Terror Scale) linked to the revolution in Kyrgyz New Zealand 2 1.24 1security also receive higher scores, including the April 2010 and subsequent clashes between Kyrgyz Republic 131 2.36 26 Japan 5 1.33 2proportion of people in jail. and Uzbek ethnic communities in the southern cities Azerbaijan 132 2.36 27 Bhutan 19 1.48 3 of Osh and Jalalabad. There was also an increase in Georgia 141 2.54 28 Malaysia 20 1.49 4 North Overall Overall Regional the country’s jailed population to 267 per 100,000, a Russia 153 2.94 29 America Rank Score Rank lower proportion of its population than in Kazakhstan Australia 22 1.49 5 Average 74 1.96 and Uzbekistan, but higher than in Turkmenistan and Singapore 23 1.52 6 Canada 4 1.32 1 Tajikistan. Taiwan 27 1.60 7 United States of The Asia Pacific region is on average the fourth-most America 88 2.06 2 Vietnam 34 1.64 8 peaceful region. Its overall GPI score improved by Average 46 1.69 Central Laos 37 1.66 9 and Eastern Overall Overall Regional the largest extent from last year, with the average for South Korea 42 1.73 10 Europe Rank Score Rank the 25 nations falling from 2.07 to 2.01, following a Mongolia 58 1.88 11Central and Eastern Europe remains, on average, slight improvement in the 2011 edition. Asia Pacific Slovenia 8 1.33 1 countries exhibit wide variation in the GPI; the OECD Indonesia 63 1.91 12the third-most peaceful region, after North America, Czech Republic 13 1.40 2and the situation improved for the second successive nations rank highly, with New Zealand coming joint- Nepal 80 2.00 13 Hungary 17 1.48 3year and by a greater extent than in Western Europe. second overall and Japan fifth, a two-pronged impact China 89 2.06 14 Poland 24 1.52 4 of very strong scores for overall domestic peace andThe newest members of the EU are ranked highest, Bangladesh 91 2.07 15with Slovenia consolidating its position in the top ten Slovakia 26 1.59 5 low levels of militarisation. Bhutan experienced a Papua New(8th position), although the Czech Republic slipped to Romania 32 1.63 6 robust gain in its GPI score and it rose into the top 20 Guinea 93 2.08 1613th place. Croatia 35 1.65 7 for the first time, (19th place), above Malaysia, mainly Sri Lanka 103 2.15 17 Non-EU countries in the Balkans are ranked Bulgaria 39 1.70 8 because of the easing of the ethic-Nepali refugee Cambodia 108 2.21 18between 34th and 78th in the 2012 GPI and nations Estonia 41 1.72 9 situation. Thailand 126 2.30 19in the Caucasus and Central Asia occupy the lower The divide in South-East Asia remained marked, Lithuania 43 1.74 10 Philippines 133 2.42 20reaches of the index, as before. with Taiwan and Vietnam in the top 35 and Latvia 45 1.77 11 Myanmar 139 2.53 21 Cambodia, Thailand and Philippines ranked belowBulgaria’s score improved most markedly Serbia 64 1.92 12 India 142 2.55 22 100th. Cambodia’s score improved solidly from ain the region, mainly as a result of Bosnia and sharp deterioration the previous year, amid growing Pakistan 149 2.83 23contractions in its military sphere Herzegovina 65 1.92 13 political stability under the ruling Cambodian North Korea 152 2.93 24 Albania 66 1.93 14brought on by budgetary pressures. Peoples’ Party, which secured a victory in elections to Afghanistan 157 3.25 25 Moldova 66 1.93 14 Bulgaria’s score improved most markedly in the Senate in late January 2012. There were also fewer Average 77 2.01 Macedonia violent crimes and a fall in the homicide rate.the region, mainly as a result of contractions in its (FYR) 68 1.94 16military sphere brought on by budgetary pressures. With the exception of Bhutan, South Asian nations Ukraine 71 1.95 17 Latin America also experienced an overall gainSerbia’s overall score underwent the second-largest occupy the lower half of the regional table, headed Montenegro 81 2.01 18 in peacefulness, with 16 of the 23 nations seeingimprovement in the region, amid increased political by Nepal, which rose to 80th place amid an easing improvements to their GPI scores. Chile is rankedstability led by the reformist (now former) president, Tajikistan 99 2.12 19 of the security situation and a more stable political highest, above Uruguay, with a decline in military14 15
  9. 9. Analysis of Analysis ofthe results the resultsexpenditure and gains in its human-rights situation Latin Overall Overall Regional the position of the president, Ali Bongo Ondimba. Sub-(Political Terror Scale) and the homicide rate. America Rank Score Rank Improvements to five GPI indicators point to a more Saharan Overall Overall RegionalCosta Rica’s high ranking (36th) in the GPI partly peaceful environment in Chad in 2011—a fall in the Africa Rank Score Rank Trinidadreflects very low scores for almost all its measures and Tobago 94 2.08 15 number of refugees and internally displaced people Malawi 60 1.89 12of militarisation, in step with the abolition of the reflects the easing of the conflict and humanitarian Haiti 107 2.18 16 Gambia 74 1.96 13country’s army at the end of the civil war in 1948. disaster in Darfur. Nevertheless, risk of civil unrest El Salvador 111 2.22 17 Gabon 75 1.97 14 Venezuela’s rise in peacefulness (it was the second- remains and many of the country’s measures of Jamaica 113 2.22 18 Senegal 78 1.99 15biggest “improver” after Guyana) reflected warming societal safety and security remain at high levels, Venezuela 123 2.28 19 Swaziland 85 2.03 16relations with neighbouring countries, particularly a hence its low rank (145th).rapprochement between the president, Hugo Chávez, Guatemala 124 2.29 20 Among Sub-Saharan nations, Malawi experienced Equatorial Guinea 87 2.04 17and his Colombian counterpart, Juan Manuel Santos, Honduras 129 2.34 21 the largest decline in its GPI score and rank (falling Guinea 92 2.07 18who was elected president in June 2010. There was Mexico 135 2.45 22 19 places to 60th position), largely as a result of aalso a steep decline in military expenditure as a police crackdown on mass protests in July 2011 that Angola 95 2.11 19 Colombia 144 2.63 23percentage of GDP. Mexico’s GPI score deteriorated Average 87 2.05 left at least 18 people dead. Nigeria underwent the Guinea-Bissau 95 2.11 19significantly again and it slipped to 135th position second-largest deterioration, with a sharp rise in Cameroon 97 2.11 21amid mounting drug-related violence and widespread the measure of internal conflict in response to the Uganda 98 2.12 22crime that spread to areas that were previously Sub-Saharan Africa experienced a modest rise in wave of deadly attacks in the north of the country by Madagascar 99 2.12 23 peacefulness and, for the first time since the GPI wasrelatively unscathed. During 2011 the majority of the radical Islamist group, Boko Haram. A suicide launched in 2007, it was not ranked the least peaceful Liberia 101 2.13 24murders were concentrated in Chihuahua, Nuevo bombing of UN headquarters in Abuja in August region. This was primarily the consequence of a Mali 102 2.13 25Leon, Guerrero and Sinaloa. The efficacy of the 2011 killed 23 people. At least 186—and possibly second successive sharp deterioration in the overall Republic of thegovernment’s military crackdown is being increasingly more than 200—people were killed on January 20th score for the Middle East and North Africa region. Congo 104 2.15 26questioned by civil society and it is likely to become in the northern city of Kano in a co-ordinated series There were improvements in 23 of the 38 (60%) Benin 114 2.23 27one of the presidential campaign issues. Rates of of bomb and gun attacks. The carnage in Nigeria’s countries surveyed. Zimbabwe underwent the greatest Niger 116 2.24 28kidnapping in some states are among the highest in second-largest city was the most deadly strike by improvement—a tense security situation eased amid athe world. the fanatical sect since it began an uprising in 2009 Rwanda 119 2.25 29 more stable political scene under the unity government to topple democracy and impose Islamic rule in the Kenya 120 2.25 30 and a gradual economic recovery from near collapse. Latin Overall Overall Regional multi-ethnic and religiously diverse nation. War-torn Madagascar also experienced a more peaceful year as Eritrea 122 2.26 31 America Rank Score Rank Somalia remained the lowest-ranked country in the a recovery from the deep political crisis that followed Mauritania 125 2.30 32 Chile 30 1.62 1 region. the overthrow of the president, Marc Ravalomanana, South Africa 127 2.32 33 Uruguay 33 1.63 2 in March 2009 gained momentum. Mauritius, Sub- Cote d Ivoire 134 2.42 34 Costa Rica 36 1.66 3 included in the GPI for the first time this year, is the Saharan Overall Overall Regional Ethiopia 137 2.50 35 Argentina 44 1.76 4 highest-ranked nation in the region, supplanting Africa Rank Score Rank Botswana, which topped the regional table for the Burundi 138 2.52 36 Panama 61 1.90 5 Mauritius 21 1.49 1 Guyana 69 1.94 6 past four years. Botswana climbed six places to 31st Zimbabwe 140 2.54 37 Botswana 31 1.62 2 Cuba 70 1.95 7 in the 2012 GPI, following a reduction in its score Chad 145 2.67 38 Mozambique 48 1.80 3 for numbers of internal security officers and police Nigeria 146 2.80 39 Paraguay 76 1.97 8 per 100,000 population and an improvement in its Namibia 49 1.80 4 Peru 79 2.00 9 Central African human-rights situation (Political Terror Scale). Ghana 50 1.81 5 Republic 151 2.87 40 Nicaragua 81 2.01 10 Gabon experienced the third-largest rise in Zambia 51 1.83 6 Democratic Brazil 83 2.02 11 peacefulness, with a drop in the Political Terror Scale Sierra Leone 52 1.86 7 Republic of the Bolivia 84 2.02 12 and a reduced likelihood of violent demonstrations, Congo 154 3.07 41 Lesotho 53 1.86 8 Ecuador 85 2.03 13 linked, in part, to the landslide win of the governing Tanzania 55 1.87 9 Sudan 156 3.19 42 Dominican Parti Démocratique Gabonais (PDG) in the December Somalia 158 3.39 43 Burkina Faso 56 1.88 10 Republic 90 2.07 14 2011 legislative elections and the strengthening of Djibouti 56 1.88 10 Average 97 2.2016 17
  10. 10. Analysis of Analysis ofthe results the resultsThe Middle East and North Africa was the only Middle East the currency in late 2008. The Icelandic Defence 2010. Denmark’s military nevertheless remains fairlyregion to experience a decline in peacefulness, with a and North Overall Overall Regional Agency (IDA), which was launched in 2008 with a sophisticated (certainly compared with Iceland) anddownturn largely reflecting upheaval and instability Africa Rank Score Rank budget of US$20 million, has now been disbanded. the country aims to continue to support internationalassociated with the Arab Spring, which was sparked Qatar 12 1.40 1 All of Iceland’s GPI gauges of militarisation are now missions, such as those in Afghanistan and Libya,in Tunisia in December 2010. Huge, sustained public accorded “very low” scores; there is no standing through stronger co-operation with NATO allies. United Arabprotests toppled the long-time president, Zine el Emirates 46 1.79 2 army, and military expenditure was just 1.1% of GDP. Most GPI indicators relating to safety and securityAbidine Ben Ali, a month later and rippled across the Kuwait 47 1.79 3 The modest budget is mainly channelled to the Coast in society are accorded very low scores. Denmark isentire region and beyond during 2011. Deteriorations Guard, which operates a small number of ships and free from internal conflict and it enjoys good relations Morocco 54 1.87 4in perceived criminality in society were registered in helicopters. A member of NATO since its inception in with neighbouring countries. Rates of violent crime Oman 59 1.89 5six of the 16 countries and there were no improvements and homicide are very low, violent demonstrations are Jordan 62 1.91 6 The proportion of citizens who are inin that indicator. Violent demonstrations also became highly unlikely and just 74 people per 100,000 are in Tunisia 72 1.96 7 jail is one of the lowest in the world,more likely in six countries across the region. There jail, one of the lowest proportions in Europe. Whilewere several instances of improvement in this indicator Saudi Arabia 106 2.18 8 dropping to 47 per 100,000 in 2011. the new centre-left coalition government has not had(in Libya, Iraq and Bahrain, for example, albeit from Egypt 111 2.22 9 1949, Iceland participates in international the smoothest of starts since taking power in Octoberelevated levels last year). The popular uprising in Bahrain 118 2.25 10 peacekeeping missions in Afghanistan, Lebanon, 2011, it is stable and not under threat.Syria, a brutal crackdown by the Assad regime and Algeria 121 2.26 11 Palestine and the Balkans, although economican increasingly violent insurgency, were reflected in difficulties have led to budget cuts. Iran 128 2.32 12 2. New Zealand: 2nd PLACEa steep deterioration in most GPI measures of the Icelandic society is essentially harmonious, withsecurity situation (by far the biggest fall of the 158 Lebanon Yemen 136 143 2.46 2.60 13 14 measures of safety and security including violent 1.239countries surveyed), while further significant declines crime, internal conflict and the number of homicides Libya 147 2.83 15 all accorded very low scores. The proportion of New Zealand remains at second place in the 2012in peacefulness were also detected in post-revolution Syria 147 2.83 15 citizens who are in jail is one of the lowest in the GPI. Its overall score improved slightly in responseEgypt and Tunisia. Libya, which plummeted from a Israel 150 2.84 17 world, dropping to 47 per 100,000 in 2011. The to a reduction in the size of the jailed populationrelatively high position (46th in the 2009 GPI) amid Iraq 155 3.19 18 political scene has been stable under the centre-left in 2011, although, at 199 per 100,000, it remainsthe descent into civil war, experienced a modest slide coalition of the Social Democratic Alliance (SDA) notably higher than most other OECD countries in peacefulness in 2011-12. There were also Average 101 2.25 and the Left-Green Movement (LGM), led since (58 in Japan, 73 in Norway and 111 in France indeteriorations in Kuwait, Morocco, Oman and the April 2009 by the reformist prime minister, Johanna 2011). Offsetting this was a marginal rise in militaryUnited Arab Emirates. Sigurdardottir. The government has been boosted expenditure, to a still very modest 1% of GDP. The Qatar is again the nation ranked most at peace in by a steady economic recovery in 2011, the passage 2010 Defence White Paper pledged to maintain andthe region (12th position); most indicators of safety THE TEN COUNTRIES of the 2012 budget and a reshuffle in January 2012, enhance existing capabilities and to provide additionaland security in society are accorded very low scores MOST AT PEACE which included the removal of the most controversial services, such as maritime air patrols, although thereand measures of ongoing conflict and militarisation minister in the previous government, Jon Bjarnason. were no promises of significant increases to the defenceare scored considerably lower than for the majority Iceland is classified the most peaceful nation of 158 budget. Most measures of militarisation are scoredof its neighbouring countries, although the Emirates’ surveyed in the 2012 GPI, followed by Denmark and very low, although military capability / sophisticationmilitary expenditure as a percentage of GDP is the New Zealand. Denmark: 2nd PLACE is adjudged to be moderate, on a par with most OECDhighest of the top 20. Algeria experienced the largestyear-on-year improvement in peacefulness, benefiting 1.239 countries. The majority of the GPI’s gauges of safety andfrom warming relations with Libya’s National ICELAND: 1 PLACEst Denmark’s GPI score improved for the second security suggest that New Zealand society is broadlyTransitional Council after initial scepticism and signsof reconciliation with Morocco. Several political 1.113 successive year, contributing to a rise to joint second harmonious; violent demonstrations are highly place, alongside New Zealand. This partly reflects a unlikely, while homicides and terrorist acts are veryreforms have been announced by the president, Iceland is in first place for the second successive year. fall in military spending (to a relatively modest 1.3% rare. The political scene remained stable, with theAbdelaziz Bouteflika, including authorizing 17 new The slight improvement in Iceland’s score this year of GDP) at a time of government budget constraints. centre-right National Party returned to power andpolitical parties to hold constituent congresses. They reflects a drop in the measure of military capability This continues a trend: the current Danish defence securing a record-high 59 seats in parliament, amidare reflected in a rise in the political stability indicator. and sophistication to the lowest possible level, with agreement reduces the number of the country’s F-16 strong approval for the prime minister, John Key,The country has so far largely avoided mass protest ongoing austerity measures in the wake of the collapse fighter aircraft from 48 to 30 and the process of and confidence in the government’s handling ofand social unrest. of the country’s three main commercial banks and procuring new F-35 fighters was put on hold in March the economy, which grew by 1.2% in 2011. New18 19

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