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Economic indicators may 2013

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Economic Indicators May 2013

Economic Indicators May 2013


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  • 1. | [Presentation title] | [Client Name] | [Date]1Economic IndicatorsLast update 17.05.2013
  • 2. | Economic Indicators |2Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – May 2013Europe:• Consensus May GDP forecast for WE decreased again from 0,0% to -0,1% for 2013 and from1,2% to 1,1% for 2014.• While the EU industrial confidence deteriorated again compared to the previous month, theconsumer confidence indicator improved in April.• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany fell in April. Companies assessed their currentbusiness situation more cautious than last month and were also less optimistic about futurebusiness developments.• Pressure is mounting on the ECB to act concertedly in the face of sustained weakness. May 2ndsaw a rate cut from 0,75% to now 0,5%, but some believe, the ECB could do more to help thesituation. Q1 2013 GDP contracted by 1,0%, the 6th straight quarter of decline.US:• Consensus May GDP forecast for the US decreased from 2,1% to 1,9% for 2013 and remainedstable on 2,7% for 2014.• In Q1 2013 the economy accelerated by 2,5%, helped by a 3,3% surge in personal spendingand despite a 4,1% contraction in government consumption due to fiscal sequestration. Withfurther cuts in spending having been introduced in March, government spending will likelysubtract further from growth.Japan:• The May GDP growth forecast for Japan improved from 1,3% to 1,4% for 2013 and from 1,3%to 1,5% for 2014.• New economic policies, aimed at tackling over a decade of stubborn deflation are expected tomake way for further yen softness which could help to boost inflation and benefit exporters.
  • 3. 3 | Economic Indicators |Eurostat Data
  • 4. | Economic Indicators |4Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27Source: Eurostat May 13-5-4-3-2-10123407Q108Q109Q110Q111Q112Q113Q1GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs same quarter of last year
  • 5. | Economic Indicators |5Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27Source: Eurostat May 13-2,5-2-1,5-1-0,500,5107Q108Q109Q110Q111Q112Q113Q1GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter
  • 6. | Economic Indicators |6Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price IndexSource: Eurostat May 1300,511,522,533,544,508/109/110/111/112/113/11,9%The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaborationbetween Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.
  • 7. | Economic Indicators |7Economic Indicators – ECB interest rateSource: ECB, FED May 13Apr.13; 1,2May 13; 0,5May 13; 0,25-0,50,00,51,01,52,02,53,03,54,04,5Jan08July08Jan09Jul.09Jan10Jul.10Jan11July11Jan12Jul.12Jan13Jul.13ECB short-term rateEurozone inflationFED rate
  • 8. | Economic Indicators |8Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment RateSource: Eurostat May 1310,96789101112Jan08Jan09Jan10Jan11Jan12Jan13Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries
  • 9. | Economic Indicators |9Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EUSource: Eurostat May 13-40-35-30-25-20-15-10-50510Jan06Jan07Jan08Jan09Jan10Jan11Jan12Jan13Industrial confidence within EU 27 deteriorated again in April.The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to thequestions on production expectations, order books and stocks.
  • 10. | Economic Indicators |10Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EUSource: Eurostat May 13Consumer Confidence within EU 27 improved quite significantly in April.-35-30-25-20-15-10-50Jan06Jan07Jan08Jan09Jan10Jan11Jan12Jan13The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questionson the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.
  • 11. | Economic Indicators |11Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilizationin Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27Source: Eurostat May 1360657075808504Q105Q106Q107Q108Q109Q110Q111Q112Q113Q177,9%The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilizationin percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.
  • 12. | Economic Indicators |12Ifo Data
  • 13. | Economic Indicators |13Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic ClimateSource: IFO Feb 13The Ifo World Economic climate improved considerably in Q1 2013This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
  • 14. | Economic Indicators |14Economic Indicators – IFO WE Economic ClimateSource: IFO Feb 13The economic climate for Western Europe improved in the 1st quarter 2013.This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
  • 15. | Economic Indicators |15Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic ClimateSource: IFO Feb 13This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
  • 16. | Economic Indicators |16Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro AreaSource: IFO Jan 13
  • 17. | Economic Indicators |17Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast GermanySource: IFO Jan 13
  • 18. | Economic Indicators |18Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €Source: IFO Mar 13
  • 19. | Economic Indicators |19Economic Indicators –Ifo business situation and 6 month expectationsSource: IFO May 137580859095100105110115Jan08Jan09Jan10Jan11Jan12Jan1380859095100105110115120125Jan08Jan09Jan10Jan11Jan12Jan13Business situation 6 months expectationsThe IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of theeconomic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany fell in April. Although the majority of companiesassessed their current business situation as good, they were far more cautious than lastmonth. Their expectations regarding future business developments were also lower. TheGerman economy is taking a breather.
  • 20. | Economic Indicators |20Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of CurrentBusiness SituationSource: IFO May 13The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany fell in April. Although the majority of companiesassessed their current business situation as good, they were far more cautious than lastmonth. Their expectations regarding future business developments were also lower. TheGerman economy is taking a breather.
  • 21. | Economic Indicators |21Economic Indicators – IFO business climate indexprinting industrySource: IFO Apr 13, bundesverband druck und medien-60-50-40-30-20-1001020Jan08Jan09Jan10Jan11Jan12Jan13Jan14The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry isbased on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.The business climate within the printing industry declined slightly from -2 to -5 in March.
  • 22. | Economic Indicators |22Economic Indicators – IFO business climate indexprinting industryThe IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry isbased on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.Business Development at German Printers – March 2013: The assessment of the current business situation in the printingindustry improved slightly from last month (+5%) and is positive now forthe 7th month in a row. The business climate – an indicator for the development inthe next quarter – declined slightly from -2% to -5%. The business expectations for the coming 6 months remainednegative for the 7th month in succession, and declined from -6%to now -15%. In the same month of last year expectations wereconsiderably better than today (+5%).Source: IFO Apr 13, bundesverband druck und medien
  • 23. | Economic Indicators |23Zenith Data
  • 24. | Economic Indicators |24Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press releaseSource: Zenith 12/12 Global ad expenditure forecast to strengthen over the next three years,rising from 3,3 % in 2012 to 4,1% in 2013 and 5,6% in 2015 Peripheral Eurozone to shrink 4,0% in 2013, stabilize in 2014 and grow2% in 2015 Developing markets to contribute 61% of adspend growth between2012 and 2015 and increase their share of global adspend from 34% to37% Online video and social media to help drive 20% annual growth ininternet display over the next three years Internet advertising to exceed combined newspaper and magazine totalin 2015
  • 25. | Economic Indicators |25Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press releaseSource: Zenith 12/12At current prices
  • 26. | Economic Indicators |26Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press releaseSource: Zenith 12/12