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Economic Indicators June 2013
 

Economic Indicators June 2013

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Economic Indicators and Economic Monthly Overview June 2013

Economic Indicators and Economic Monthly Overview June 2013

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    Economic Indicators June 2013 Economic Indicators June 2013 Presentation Transcript

    • | [Presentation title] | [Client Name] | [Date]1 Economic Indicators Last update 12.07.2013
    • | Economic Indicators |2 Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – July 2013 Europe: • Consensus July GDP forecast for WE decreased from -0,1% to -0,2% for 2013 and remained on 1,1% for 2014. • Both, the EU industrial confidence and the consumer confidence indicator improved in June. • The IFO Business Climate index for Germany continued to rise. Although assessments of the current business situation are slightly less positive, firms are increasingly optimistic with regard to their future business outlook. The German economy holds its course. • Eurozone prospects remain bleak, the outlooks for several economies including Germany, Italy and the Netherlands have been cut this month. Still, on the positive side, industrial production rose for a third straight month in April and June’s composite PMI fell by its least severe pace in over a year. US: • Consensus July GDP forecast for the US decreased from 1,9% to 1,8% for 2013 and remained on 2,7% for 2014. • Uncertainty increased after the Fed’s comments about tapering the pace of its monthly bond purchases which support liquidity in the financial markets. The worry is that higher rates will choke off growth. Japan: • The July GDP growth forecast for Japan remained on 1,9% for 2013 and on 1,5% for 2014. • Industrial production rose for the fourth consecutive month, consumer prices edged out of deflation for the first time in seven months and exports surged.
    • 3 | Economic Indicators | Eurostat Data
    • | Economic Indicators |4 Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27 Source: Eurostat May 13 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 '07Q1 '08Q1 '09Q1 '10Q1 '11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year
    • | Economic Indicators |5 Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27 Source: Eurostat May 13 -2,5 -2 -1,5 -1 -0,5 0 0,5 1 '07Q1 '08Q1 '09Q1 '10Q1 '11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter
    • | Economic Indicators |6 Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index Source: Eurostat July 13 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 08/1 09/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 13/1 1,6 % The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.
    • | Economic Indicators |7 Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate Source: ECB, FED July 13 Jun.13; 1,6 Jul.13; 0,5 Jul.13; 0,25 -0,5 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 Jan08 July08 Jan09 Jul.09 Jan10 Jul.10 Jan11 July11 Jan12 Jul.12 Jan13 Jul.13 ECB short-term rate Eurozone inflation FED rate
    • | Economic Indicators |8 Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate Source: Eurostat July 13 11 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries
    • | Economic Indicators |9 Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU Source: Eurostat July 13 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 Jan06 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Industrial confidence within EU 27 improved slightly again in June. The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.
    • | Economic Indicators |10 Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU Source: Eurostat July 13 Consumer Confidence within EU 27 improved considerably in June. -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 Jan06 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future) together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.
    • | Economic Indicators |11 Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27 Source: Eurostat May 13 60 65 70 75 80 85 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 77,9 % The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.
    • | Economic Indicators |12 Ifo Data
    • | Economic Indicators |13 Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate Source: IFO June 13 The Ifo World Economic climate improved again in Q2 2013 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
    • | Economic Indicators |14 Economic Indicators – IFO WE Economic Climate Source: IFO June 13 The economic climate for Western Europe improved slightly in Q2 2013. This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
    • | Economic Indicators |15 Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate Source: IFO June 13 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
    • | Economic Indicators |16 Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area Source: IFO June 13
    • | Economic Indicators |17 Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany Source: IFO June 13
    • | Economic Indicators |18 Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs € Source: IFO June 13
    • | Economic Indicators |19 Economic Indicators – Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations Source: IFO July 13 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Business situation 6 months expectations The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next 6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed. The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany continued to rise. Although assessments of the current business situation are slightly less positive, firms are increasingly optimistic with regard to their future business outlook. The German economy holds its course.
    • | Economic Indicators |20 Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current Business Situation Source: IFO July 13 The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany continued to rise. Although assessments of the current business situation are slightly less positive, firms are increasingly optimistic with regard to their future business outlook. The German economy holds its course.
    • | Economic Indicators |21 Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry Source: IFO July 13, bundesverband druck und medien -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers. The business climate within the printing industry improved significantly to -3 in June.
    • | Economic Indicators |22 Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers. Business Development at German Printers – July 2013:  The assessment of the current business situation in the printing industry deteriorated again from last month to now -14% compared to -5% in the same month of last year.  The business climate – an indicator for the development in the next quarter – improved due to better expectations to -3%.  The business expectations for the coming 6 months improved surprisingly strong by 34%points to now +9%. In the same month of last year expectations were also positive but 6%points worse than now. Source: IFO Jul 13, bundesverband druck und medien
    • | Economic Indicators |23 Zenith Data
    • | Economic Indicators |24 Advertising Growth – Zenith 6/13 Press release Source: Zenith 6/13 Executive summary: Advertising Expenditure Forecast June 2013 • Global ad expenditure to grow 3,5% in 2013, down from 3,9% forecast in Q1 due to continuing recession in the Eurozone and security concerns in South Korea. 5,1% are being forecast for 2014 and 5,8% for 2015. • Growth will be led by the Rising markets (av. growth of 8,6% per year) while Mature markets will grow at an average of 2,8%. • US remains biggest contributor of new ad dollars to the global ad market followed by China, Argentina, Indonesia and Russia • Internet is still the fastest growing medium by some distance, mobile advertising has now truly taken off and is growing five times faster than desktop internet. • Advertising in printed newspapers and magazines will continue to shrink at an average of 2-3% a year.
    • | Economic Indicators |25 Advertising Growth – Zenith 6/13 Press release Source: ZenithOptimedia 6/13
    • | Economic Indicators |26 Advertising Growth – Zenith 6/13 Press release Source: ZenithOptimedia 6/13
    • | Economic Indicators |27 Advertising Growth – Zenith 6/13 Press release Source: ZenithOptimedia 6/13
    • | Economic Indicators |28 Advertising Growth – Zenith 6/13 Press release Source: ZenithOptimedia 6/13