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Economic Indicators January 2013

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Economic Indicators and Economic Monthly Overview January 2013

Economic Indicators and Economic Monthly Overview January 2013


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  • 1. Economic Indicators Last update 15.02.20131 | [Presentation title] | [Client Name] | [Date]
  • 2. Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – February 2013 Europe: • Consensus February GDP forecast for WE remained on 0,1% for 2013 and on 1,2% for 2014. • While the EU industrial confidence decreased slightly in January, the consumer confidence indicator improved considerably. • The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose for the third time in succession in January. While companies assessed their current business situation somewhat more favorable, they were considerably more optimistic about future business developments. • Euro area GDP fell by 0,6% (q-o-q) in Q4 2012, a third straight quarter of decline. While uncertainty and recession persist, there are signs that the downturn may have troughed. The decline in industry has been ebbing and the PMIs for services and manufacturing show the contraction slowing. US: • Consensus February GDP forecast for the US decreased from 2,0% to 1,9% for 2013. Forecast for 2014 remained on 2,8% • Q4 national accounts revealed that GDP declined by 0,1%, the first contraction since the 2009 recession. This was largely due to defence cuts that came into effect after Sept 30. Still, domestic demand held up well and gain in payrolls is still holding up relatively well. Japan: • The February GDP growth forecast for Japan improved significantly from 0,7% to 1,2% for 2013 and from 1,0% to 1,2% for 2014. • The Bank of Japan has unveiled plans for open-ended quantitative easing from 2014 in an attempt to boost activity and meet a newly adopted 2,0% inflation target.2 | Economic Indicators |
  • 3. Eurostat Data3 | Economic Indicators |
  • 4. Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 07Q1 06Q1 10 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs same quarter of last year Source: Eurostat Feb 134 | Economic Indicators |
  • 5. Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 -2.5 12 Q1 06Q1 07Q1 09 Q1 08 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter Source: Eurostat Feb 135 | Economic Indicators |
  • 6. Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.3 2.5 % 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 12/1 08/1 09/1 10/1 11/1 The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States. Source: Eurostat Jan 136 | Economic Indicators |
  • 7. Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate 5,5 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 Jan 13; 2 2,5 2,0 Eurozone inflation 1,5 1,0 FED rate Feb.13; 0,75 0,5 ECB short-term rate Feb.13; 0,25 0,0 -0,5 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 July 08 Jul.09 Jul.10 July 11 Jul.12 Jul.13 Source: ECB, FED Feb 137 | Economic Indicators |
  • 8. Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate 11 10.7 10 9 8 7 6 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries Source: Eurostat Feb 138 | Economic Indicators |
  • 9. Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU Industrial confidence within EU 27 decreased slightly in January. 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on production expectations, order books and stocks. Source: Eurostat Feb 139 | Economic Indicators |
  • 10. Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU Consumer Confidence within EU 27 improved considerably in January. 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future) together with that on the advisability of making major purchases. Source: Eurostat Feb 1310 | Economic Indicators |
  • 11. Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27 85 80 75 % 70 65 60 09Q1 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry. Source: Eurostat Feb 1311 | Economic Indicators |
  • 12. Ifo Data12 | Economic Indicators |
  • 13. Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate The Ifo World Economic climate improved considerably in Q1 2013 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis. Source: IFO Feb 1313 | Economic Indicators |
  • 14. Economic Indicators – IFO WE Economic Climate The economic climate for Western Europe improved in the 1st quarter 2013. This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis. Source: IFO Feb 1314 | Economic Indicators |
  • 15. Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis. Source: IFO Feb 1315 | Economic Indicators |
  • 16. Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area GDP growth for 2012 was revised downwards from the December forecast. Source: IFO Jan 1316 | Economic Indicators |
  • 17. Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany Source: IFO Jan 1317 | Economic Indicators |
  • 18. Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs € Source: IFO Jan 1318 | Economic Indicators |
  • 19. Economic Indicators – Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations Business situation 6 months expectations 125 115 120 110 115 105 110 100 105 95 100 95 90 90 85 85 80 80 75 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose for the third time in succession in January. While companies assessed their current business situation somewhat more positive than last month, they were considerably more optimistic about future business developments. The German economy made a promising start into the New Year. The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next 6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed. Source: IFO Feb 1319 | Economic Indicators |
  • 20. Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current Business Situation The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose for the third time in succession in January. While companies assessed their current business situation somewhat more positive than last month, they were considerably more optimistic about future business developments. The German economy made a promising start into the New Year. Source: IFO Feb 1320 | Economic Indicators |
  • 21. Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry The business climate within the printing industry remained fairly stable on -8 (after -7 in January). 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 Jan 13 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 14 The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers. Source: IFO Feb 13, bundesverband druck und medien21 | Economic Indicators |
  • 22. Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry Business Development at German Printers – January 2013:  Typically and according to seasonality the assessment of the current business situation in the printing industry decreased strongly from +21%points in December to now +1%, nearly the same level as in the same month of last year (0%).  The business climate – an indicator for the development in the next quarter – remained nearly unchanged with -8%, 1% point down from the -7% in December.  The business expectations for the coming 6 months remained negative for the 5th month in succession, but improved from -32% to -16%. The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers. Source: IFO Feb 13, bundesverband druck und medien22 | Economic Indicators |
  • 23. Zenith Data23 | Economic Indicators |
  • 24. Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release  Global ad expenditure forecast to strengthen over the next three years, rising from 3,3 % in 2012 to 4,1% in 2013 and 5,6% in 2015  Peripheral Eurozone to shrink 4,0% in 2013, stabilize in 2014 and grow 2% in 2015  Developing markets to contribute 61% of adspend growth between 2012 and 2015 and increase their share of global adspend from 34% to 37%  Online video and social media to help drive 20% annual growth in internet display over the next three years  Internet advertising to exceed combined newspaper and magazine total in 2015 Source: Zenith 12/1224 | Economic Indicators |
  • 25. Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release At current prices Source: Zenith 12/1225 | Economic Indicators |
  • 26. Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release Source: Zenith 12/1226 | Economic Indicators |