Economic Indicators February 2014

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Economic Indicators and Monthly Overview February 2014

Economic Indicators and Monthly Overview February 2014

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  • 1. Economic Indicators Last update 14.2.2014 1 | [Presentation title] | [Client Name] | [Date]
  • 2. Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – February 2014 Europe: • Consensus February GDP forecast for WE remained on 1,4% for 2014. • The EU industrial confidence slightly deteriorated compared to last month while the consumer confidence indicator improved once again from its December level. • The IFO Business Climate index for Germany improved for the third time in succession. The German economy made a promising start to the New Year. • Industry is supporting the Euro area recovery. January’s manufacturing PMI climbed, underpinned by expansions in production and new orders and the periphery performing fairly well. On the other hand inflation remains a concern, reaching 0,7% in January. Weak price pressure makes it harder for insolvent countries to pay down debt. US: • Consensus February GDP forecast for the US improved from 2,8% to 2,9% for 2014. • The GDP outlook for 2014 has edged up on the back of the Q4 national accounts showing GDP growth expanding by 3,2% q-o-q. Jobless rate dropped to 6,6%, but severe winter weather has impacted negatively on employment and output. . Japan: • The February GDP growth forecast for Japan came down from 1,7% to 1,6% for 2014. • Latest data demonstrate that the economy strengthened at the end of last year. Jobless rate fell to 3,7% in December, the lowest unemployment rate since December 2007. Still sentiment towards the 2014 outlook is tinged with uncertainty, especially ahead of April’s consumption tax hike. 2 | Economic Indicators |
  • 3. Eurostat Data 3 | Economic Indicators |
  • 4. 13 Q1 12 Q1 '11 Q1 '10 Q1 '09 Q1 '08 Q1 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 '07Q1 % Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28 GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year Source: Eurostat Feb 14 4 | Economic Indicators |
  • 5. Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28 1 0,5 0 % -0,5 -1 -1,5 -2 13 Q1 12 Q1 '11 Q1 '10 Q1 '09 Q1 '08 Q1 '07Q1 -2,5 GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter Source: Eurostat Feb 14 5 | Economic Indicators |
  • 6. Economic Indicators –EU 28 Consumer Price Index 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 14/1 13/1 12/1 11/1 10/1 09/1 1 08/1 % The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States. Source: Eurostat Jan 14 6 | Economic Indicators |
  • 7. Eurozone inflation Jan 15 Jul.14 Jul.13 Jan 13 Jul.12 Jan 12 July 11 Jan 11 Jul.10 Jan 10 Jul.09 Jan 14 Dec 13; 0,8 Feb.14; 0,25 ECB short-term rate Jan 09 July 08 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 FED rate 0,0 -0,5 Jan 08 % Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate Source: ECB, FED, Eurostat Feb 14 7 | Economic Indicators |
  • 8. Economic Indicators –EU 28 Unemployment Rate 12 11 10,7 % 10 9 8 7 Jan 13 Jan 12 Jan 11 Jan 10 Jan 09 Jan 08 6 Unemployment rate for EU 28 countries Source: Eurostat Feb 14 8 | Economic Indicators |
  • 9. Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU Industrial confidence within EU 28 deteriorated slightly in January. Jan 14 Jan 13 Jan 12 Jan 11 Jan 10 Jan 09 Jan 08 Jan 07 Jan 06 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on production expectations, order books and stocks. Source: Eurostat Feb 14 9 | Economic Indicators |
  • 10. Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU Consumer Confidence within EU 28 improved again in January. 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 Jan 14 Jan 13 Jan 12 Jan 11 Jan 10 Jan 09 Jan 08 Jan 07 Jan 06 -35 The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future) together with that on the advisability of making major purchases. Source: Eurostat Feb 14 10 | Economic Indicators |
  • 11. Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27 85 79,4 80 75 % 70 65 14Q1 13Q1 12Q1 11Q1 10Q1 09Q1 08Q1 07Q1 06Q1 05Q1 04Q1 60 The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry. Source: Eurostat Feb 14 11 | Economic Indicators |
  • 12. Ifo Data 12 | Economic Indicators |
  • 13. Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate The Ifo World Economic climate further brightens in Q1 2014 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis. Source: IFO Feb 14 13 | Economic Indicators |
  • 14. Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate The economic climate for Europe brightens significantly again in Q1 2014. This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis. Source: IFO Feb 14 14 | Economic Indicators |
  • 15. Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis. Source: IFO Feb 14 15 | Economic Indicators |
  • 16. Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area Source: IFO Dec 13 16 | Economic Indicators |
  • 17. Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany Source: IFO Dec 13 17 | Economic Indicators |
  • 18. Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs € Source: IFO Feb 14 18 | Economic Indicators |
  • 19. Economic Indicators – Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations 6 months expectations Business situation Jan 14 Jan 13 Jan 12 Jan 11 Jan 10 Jan 09 Jan 08 Jan 14 Jan 13 Jan 12 Jan 11 Jan 10 Jan 09 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 Jan 08 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany in January improved for the third time in succession. Assessments of the current business situation rose to their highest level since June 2012. Expectations regarding future business developments reached their most optimistic level in almost three years. The German economy made a promising start to the New Year. The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next 6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed. Source: IFO Feb 14 19 | Economic Indicators |
  • 20. Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current Business Situation The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany in January improved for the third time in succession. Assessments of the current business situation rose to their highest level since June 2012. Expectations regarding future business developments reached their most optimistic level in almost three years. The German economy made a promising start to the New Year. Source: IFO Feb 14 20 | Economic Indicators |
  • 21. Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry The business climate within the printing industry decreased slightly from 0 to -2 in January. Jan 14 Jan 13 Jan 12 Jan 11 Jan 10 Jan 09 Jan 08 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers. Source: IFO Feb 14, bundesverband druck und medien 21 | Economic Indicators |
  • 22. Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry Business Development at German Printers – January 2014:  The assessment of the current business situation in the printing industry only reached 9% in January, significantly below the 25% reached in December. Still, such a slump after Christmas season has been observed already in previous years.  The business climate – an indicator for the development in the next quarter – remains rather clouded, reaching -2% after 0% in the previous month.  The business expectations for the coming 6 months remained negative at -13%, the same level as in the same month of last year and up from -23% in the previous month. The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers. Source: IFO Feb 14, bundesverband druck und medien 22 | Economic Indicators |
  • 23. Zenith Data 23 | Economic Indicators |
  • 24. Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13 24 | Economic Indicators |
  • 25. Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13 25 | Economic Indicators |
  • 26. Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13 26 | Economic Indicators |
  • 27. Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13 27 | Economic Indicators |