Economic Indicators February 2013
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Economic Indicators February 2013

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Economic Indicators and Economic Monthly Overview February 2013

Economic Indicators and Economic Monthly Overview February 2013

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Economic Indicators February 2013 Economic Indicators February 2013 Presentation Transcript

  • Economic Indicators Last update 15.03.20131 | [Presentation title] | [Client Name] | [Date]
  • Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – March 2013 Europe: • Consensus March GDP forecast for WE decreased from 0,1% to 0,0% for 2013 and remained on 1,2% for 2014. • Both, the EU industrial confidence and the consumer confidence indicator improved in February. • The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose significantly in February. Companies assessed their current business situation more favorably and were considerably more optimistic about future business developments. • There are hopes that the downturn may have troughed, based on a few indicators, including a 1,2% m-o-m rebound in retail trade in January. However, any recovery is currently fragile at the best. Euro zone joblessness continued to climb in January and EC has downgraded its forecast for 2013 to -0,3%. US: • Consensus March GDP forecast for the US decreased from 1,9% to 1,8% for 2013. Forecast for 2014 remained on 2,8% • US consumption slowed at the start of 2013 as households felt the impact of federal tax increases introduced on January 1. Moreover, March 1 saw sequestered public spending cuts come into effect in addition to defense cuts imposed late last year. Japan: • The March GDP growth forecast for Japan remained stable on 1,2% for both, 2013 and 2014. • Q4 GDP figure was revised from an estimated contraction of 0,1% q-o-q to flat growth, indicating that the Japanese downturn may have bottomed out. The new government’s policies have helped to weaken the Yen supporting export growth but also pushing up energy import costs.2 | Economic Indicators |
  • Eurostat Data3 | Economic Indicators |
  • Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 06Q1 07Q1 10 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 11 Q1 12 Q1 GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs same quarter of last year Source: Eurostat Mar 134 | Economic Indicators |
  • Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 -2.5 12 Q1 11 Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter Source: Eurostat Mar 135 | Economic Indicators |
  • Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 % 2 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 11/1 08/1 09/1 10/1 12/1 13/1 The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States. Source: Eurostat Mar 136 | Economic Indicators |
  • Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 Eurozone inflation 2,0 Feb.13; 1,8 1,5 1,0 Mar 13; 0,75 FED rate ECB short-term rate 0,5 0,0 Mar 13; 0,25 -0,5 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 July 08 Jul.09 Jul.10 July 11 Jul.12 Jul.13 Source: ECB, FED Mar 137 | Economic Indicators |
  • Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate 12 11 10.8 10 9 8 7 6 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries Source: Eurostat Mar 138 | Economic Indicators |
  • Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU Industrial confidence within EU 27 improved considerably in February. 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 Jan 11 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 12 Jan 13 The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on production expectations, order books and stocks. Source: Eurostat Mar 139 | Economic Indicators |
  • Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU Consumer Confidence within EU 27 improved slightly again in February. 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future) together with that on the advisability of making major purchases. Source: Eurostat Mar 1310 | Economic Indicators |
  • Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27 85 80 75 % 70 65 60 09Q1 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry. Source: Eurostat Feb 1311 | Economic Indicators |
  • Ifo Data12 | Economic Indicators |
  • Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate The Ifo World Economic climate improved considerably in Q1 2013 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis. Source: IFO Feb 1313 | Economic Indicators |
  • Economic Indicators – IFO WE Economic Climate The economic climate for Western Europe improved in the 1st quarter 2013. This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis. Source: IFO Feb 1314 | Economic Indicators |
  • Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis. Source: IFO Feb 1315 | Economic Indicators |
  • Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area Source: IFO Jan 1316 | Economic Indicators |
  • Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany Source: IFO Jan 1317 | Economic Indicators |
  • Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs € Source: IFO Mar 1318 | Economic Indicators |
  • Economic Indicators – Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations Business situation 6 months expectations 125 115 120 110 115 105 110 100 105 95 100 95 90 90 85 85 80 80 75 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose significantly by over three points in February. This represents its greatest increase since July 2010. Satisfaction with the current business situation continued to grow and optimism regarding future business perspectives increased. The German economy is regaining momentum. The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next 6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed. Source: IFO Mar 1319 | Economic Indicators |
  • Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current Business Situation The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose significantly by over three points in February. This represents its greatest increase since July 2010. Satisfaction with the current business situation continued to grow and optimism regarding future business perspectives increased. The German economy is regaining momentum. Source: IFO Mar 1320 | Economic Indicators |
  • Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry The business climate within the printing industry improved from -8 to -2. 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers. Source: IFO Mar 13, bundesverband druck und medien21 | Economic Indicators |
  • Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry Business Development at German Printers – February 2013:  With +2% the assessment of the current business situation in the printing industry remained fairly unchanged from last month and is considerably better than in the same month of last year (-6%).  The business climate – an indicator for the development in the next quarter – improved from -8% to -2%.  The business expectations for the coming 6 months remained negative for the 6th month in succession, but improved from -16% to -6%. In the same month of last year expectations were positive and considerably better than today. The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers. Source: IFO Mar 13, bundesverband druck und medien22 | Economic Indicators |
  • Zenith Data23 | Economic Indicators |
  • Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release  Global ad expenditure forecast to strengthen over the next three years, rising from 3,3 % in 2012 to 4,1% in 2013 and 5,6% in 2015  Peripheral Eurozone to shrink 4,0% in 2013, stabilize in 2014 and grow 2% in 2015  Developing markets to contribute 61% of adspend growth between 2012 and 2015 and increase their share of global adspend from 34% to 37%  Online video and social media to help drive 20% annual growth in internet display over the next three years  Internet advertising to exceed combined newspaper and magazine total in 2015 Source: Zenith 12/1224 | Economic Indicators |
  • Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release At current prices Source: Zenith 12/1225 | Economic Indicators |
  • Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release Source: Zenith 12/1226 | Economic Indicators |