0
| [Presentation title] | [Client Name] | [Date]1
Economic Indicators
Last update 20.08.2013
| Economic Indicators |2
Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – August 2013
Europe:
• Consensus August GDP forecast for WE im...
3 | Economic Indicators |
Eurostat Data
| Economic Indicators |4
Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27
Source: Eurostat Aug 13
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
'07Q1
'08Q1
'09Q...
| Economic Indicators |5
Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27
Source: Eurostat Aug 13
-2,5
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
'07Q1
'08Q1
...
| Economic Indicators |6
Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index
Source: Eurostat Aug 13
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4...
| Economic Indicators |7
Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate
Source: ECB, FED Aug 13
Jul.13; 1,6
Aug.13; 0,5
Aug.13; 0...
| Economic Indicators |8
Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate
Source: Eurostat Aug 13
10,9
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Jan08
...
| Economic Indicators |9
Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU
Source: Eurostat Aug 13
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-1...
| Economic Indicators |10
Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU
Source: Eurostat Aug 13
Consumer Confidence wit...
| Economic Indicators |11
Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization
in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27
Source: Eurost...
| Economic Indicators |12
Ifo Data
| Economic Indicators |13
Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate
Source: IFO Aug 13
The Ifo World Economic clima...
| Economic Indicators |14
Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate
Source: IFO Aug 13
The economic climate for ...
| Economic Indicators |15
Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate
Source: IFO Aug 13
This indicator is being updated...
| Economic Indicators |16
Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area
Source: IFO June 13
| Economic Indicators |17
Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany
Source: IFO June 13
| Economic Indicators |18
Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €
Source: IFO June 13
| Economic Indicators |19
Economic Indicators –
Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations
Source: IFO Aug 13
75
80
8...
| Economic Indicators |20
Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current
Business Situation
Source: IFO Aug 13
The Ifo Bu...
| Economic Indicators |21
Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
Source: IFO July 13, bundesve...
| Economic Indicators |22
Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
The IFO-Institut für Wirtscha...
| Economic Indicators |23
Zenith Data
| Economic Indicators |24
Advertising Growth – Zenith 6/13 Press release
Source: Zenith 6/13
Executive summary: Advertisin...
| Economic Indicators |25
Advertising Growth – Zenith 6/13 Press release
Source: ZenithOptimedia 6/13
| Economic Indicators |26
Advertising Growth – Zenith 6/13 Press release
Source: ZenithOptimedia 6/13
| Economic Indicators |27
Advertising Growth – Zenith 6/13 Press release
Source: ZenithOptimedia 6/13
| Economic Indicators |28
Advertising Growth – Zenith 6/13 Press release
Source: ZenithOptimedia 6/13
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Economic Indicators August 2013

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Economic Indicators August 2013

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Transcript of "Economic Indicators August 2013"

  1. 1. | [Presentation title] | [Client Name] | [Date]1 Economic Indicators Last update 20.08.2013
  2. 2. | Economic Indicators |2 Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – August 2013 Europe: • Consensus August GDP forecast for WE improved from -0,2% to -0,1% for 2013 and remained on 1,1% for 2014. • Both, the EU industrial confidence and the consumer confidence indicator improved in July. • The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose for the third time in succession in July. Assessments of the current business situation are more positive than last month, and although the six-month business outlook weakened slightly, firms remain cautiously optimistic. • Q2 GDP finally advanced following six consecutive quarters of decline, rising by 0,3% q-o-q after a fall in the same size in Q1. July’s composite PMI finally broke into expansionary territory, as did the manufacturing PMI, underscoring a cautious recovery. Thus the Euro area outlook could be turning more upbeat – however, the periphery remains in deep retrenchment. US: • Consensus August GDP forecast for the US decreased from 1,8% to 1,5% for 2013 and from 2,7% to 2,6% for 2014. • The advance Q2 national accounts showed heavy revisions to the historical data, including 2012 GDP which is now estimated to have expanded by 2,8% instead of 2,2% previously. GDP figure now includes more of the ‘knowledge economy’ including intellectual property and R&D. This revision also contributed to this month’s downgrade of the 2013 GDP forecast. Japan: • The August GDP growth forecast for Japan remained on 1,9% for 2013 and on 1,5% for 2014. • June industrial production dipped for the first time in five months, while the manufacturing purchasing manager’s index for July eased to a four-month low. On the other side the unemployment rate fell below 4% for the first time since 2008.
  3. 3. 3 | Economic Indicators | Eurostat Data
  4. 4. | Economic Indicators |4 Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27 Source: Eurostat Aug 13 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 '07Q1 '08Q1 '09Q1 '10Q1 '11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 % GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year
  5. 5. | Economic Indicators |5 Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27 Source: Eurostat Aug 13 -2,5 -2 -1,5 -1 -0,5 0 0,5 1 '07Q1 '08Q1 '09Q1 '10Q1 '11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 % GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter
  6. 6. | Economic Indicators |6 Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index Source: Eurostat Aug 13 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 08/1 09/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 13/1 1,7 % The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.
  7. 7. | Economic Indicators |7 Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate Source: ECB, FED Aug 13 Jul.13; 1,6 Aug.13; 0,5 Aug.13; 0,25 -0,5 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 Jan08 July08 Jan09 Jul.09 Jan10 Jul.10 Jan11 July11 Jan12 Jul.12 Jan13 Jul.13 % ECB short-term rate Eurozone inflation FED rate
  8. 8. | Economic Indicators |8 Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate Source: Eurostat Aug 13 10,9 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 % Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries
  9. 9. | Economic Indicators |9 Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU Source: Eurostat Aug 13 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 Jan06 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 Industrial confidence within EU 27 improved slightly again in July. The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.
  10. 10. | Economic Indicators |10 Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU Source: Eurostat Aug 13 Consumer Confidence within EU 27 improved considerably in July. -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 Jan06 Jan07 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future) together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.
  11. 11. | Economic Indicators |11 Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27 Source: Eurostat Aug 13 60 65 70 75 80 85 04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 78,9 % The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.
  12. 12. | Economic Indicators |12 Ifo Data
  13. 13. | Economic Indicators |13 Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate Source: IFO Aug 13 The Ifo World Economic climate fell slightly in Q3 2013 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
  14. 14. | Economic Indicators |14 Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate Source: IFO Aug 13 The economic climate for Europe brightened slightly in Q3 2013. This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
  15. 15. | Economic Indicators |15 Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate Source: IFO Aug 13 This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
  16. 16. | Economic Indicators |16 Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area Source: IFO June 13
  17. 17. | Economic Indicators |17 Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany Source: IFO June 13
  18. 18. | Economic Indicators |18 Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs € Source: IFO June 13
  19. 19. | Economic Indicators |19 Economic Indicators – Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations Source: IFO Aug 13 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Business situation 6 months expectations The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next 6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed. The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose for the third time in succession. Assessments of the current business situation are more positive than last month and although the six-month business outlook weakened slightly, firms remain cautiously optimistic with regard to their future business outlook. Conditions in the German economy remain fair.
  20. 20. | Economic Indicators |20 Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current Business Situation Source: IFO Aug 13 The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose for the third time in succession. Assessments of the current business situation are more positive than last month and although the six-month business outlook weakened slightly, firms remain cautiously optimistic with regard to their future business outlook. Conditions in the German economy remain fair.
  21. 21. | Economic Indicators |21 Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry Source: IFO July 13, bundesverband druck und medien -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 Jan08 Jan09 Jan10 Jan11 Jan12 Jan13 Jan14 The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers. The business climate within the printing industry improved significantly to -3 in June.
  22. 22. | Economic Indicators |22 Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index printing industry The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers. Business Development at German Printers – June 2013:  The assessment of the current business situation in the printing industry deteriorated again from last month to now -14% compared to -5% in the same month of last year.  The business climate – an indicator for the development in the next quarter – improved due to better expectations to -3%.  The business expectations for the coming 6 months improved surprisingly strong by 34%points to now +9%. In the same month of last year expectations were also positive but 6%points worse than now. Source: IFO Jul 13, bundesverband druck und medien
  23. 23. | Economic Indicators |23 Zenith Data
  24. 24. | Economic Indicators |24 Advertising Growth – Zenith 6/13 Press release Source: Zenith 6/13 Executive summary: Advertising Expenditure Forecast June 2013 • Global ad expenditure to grow 3,5% in 2013, down from 3,9% forecast in Q1 due to continuing recession in the Eurozone and security concerns in South Korea. 5,1% are being forecast for 2014 and 5,8% for 2015. • Growth will be led by the Rising markets (av. growth of 8,6% per year) while Mature markets will grow at an average of 2,8%. • US remains biggest contributor of new ad dollars to the global ad market followed by China, Argentina, Indonesia and Russia • Internet is still the fastest growing medium by some distance, mobile advertising has now truly taken off and is growing five times faster than desktop internet. • Advertising in printed newspapers and magazines will continue to shrink at an average of 2-3% a year.
  25. 25. | Economic Indicators |25 Advertising Growth – Zenith 6/13 Press release Source: ZenithOptimedia 6/13
  26. 26. | Economic Indicators |26 Advertising Growth – Zenith 6/13 Press release Source: ZenithOptimedia 6/13
  27. 27. | Economic Indicators |27 Advertising Growth – Zenith 6/13 Press release Source: ZenithOptimedia 6/13
  28. 28. | Economic Indicators |28 Advertising Growth – Zenith 6/13 Press release Source: ZenithOptimedia 6/13
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