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Thomson Reuters Eikon  Lanworth methodology Agriculture
Thomson Reuters Eikon  Lanworth methodology Agriculture
Thomson Reuters Eikon  Lanworth methodology Agriculture
Thomson Reuters Eikon  Lanworth methodology Agriculture
Thomson Reuters Eikon  Lanworth methodology Agriculture
Thomson Reuters Eikon  Lanworth methodology Agriculture
Thomson Reuters Eikon  Lanworth methodology Agriculture
Thomson Reuters Eikon  Lanworth methodology Agriculture
Thomson Reuters Eikon  Lanworth methodology Agriculture
Thomson Reuters Eikon  Lanworth methodology Agriculture
Thomson Reuters Eikon  Lanworth methodology Agriculture
Thomson Reuters Eikon  Lanworth methodology Agriculture
Thomson Reuters Eikon  Lanworth methodology Agriculture
Thomson Reuters Eikon  Lanworth methodology Agriculture
Thomson Reuters Eikon  Lanworth methodology Agriculture
Thomson Reuters Eikon  Lanworth methodology Agriculture
Thomson Reuters Eikon  Lanworth methodology Agriculture
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Thomson Reuters Eikon Lanworth methodology Agriculture

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For more information: Santo Haryowibowo, Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia, +62 815 1085 2000, santo.haryowibowo@thomsonreuters.com

For more information: Santo Haryowibowo, Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia, +62 815 1085 2000, santo.haryowibowo@thomsonreuters.com

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  • 1. AN INTRODUCTION TO LANWORTH THOMSON REUTERS LANWORTH CHRISTOPHER BRISCH, Market Specialist, Agriculture, Americas
  • 2. LANWORTH VALUE PROPOSITION • The characteristic volatility of the agricultural commodities markets is due largely to poor information, typically on the supply side. • Modern science, data, and models—in the hands of expert analysts—can yield accurate, early season agricultural supply forecasts. • An objective, independent view of regional, national, and global supply is essential to successful mediumand long-term agricultural commodities trading. • The means to develop such a view are beyond all but the most capable research desks.
  • 3. LANWORTH VALUE PROPOSITION (CON’T) Lanworth analyzes medium- to long-term supply side price drivers but does not forecast prices directly.
  • 4. as 7.0 million tons lower China corn supply in the May or June WASDE. owered 201 / 1 Argentina corn production by 0.5 million tons to 21 million tons, well within 1 2 .5 rth's confidence envelope of 20.8 [1 9.8-21 million tons. USDA and CONAB estimates of 201 / 1 .9] 1 2 corn production now stand at 62.0 and 65.1million tons, higher than Lanworth’s 60.6 [57.7–64.6] tons. Relative to CONAB, Lanworth’s expectation for second corn production stands 2.7 million tons across Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná, assuming 25% below normal precipitation through May. LANWORTH VALUE PROPOSITION (CON’T) 1 35 1 30 Million Tons 1 25 1 20 15 1 10 1 1 05 1 00 1 -Nov US DA LW 1 -Dec 1 an -J 1 -Feb 1 -Mar 1 -Apr Lanworth and USDA (WASDE) estimates of combined 201 / 1 Brazil and Argentina soybean production. 1 2 1350# ushel# Example: South CME#July#Futures#soybean production 2011/12; getting it right is America Paranaguá# important 1300# getting it Basis# first is ever more so. but right 1250#
  • 5. LANWORTH ANALYST TEAM • Lanworth’s agriculture analyst team presently consists of 15 domain specialists supported by two data specialists. • Current domain specialties include geography, agronomy, anthropology, remote sensing, meteorology, and numerical climatology. • All domain analysts hold M.S. or Ph.D. degrees and together have language competency in Portuguese, Spanish, Chinese, and Hindi.
  • 6. LANWORTH PRODUCTION PROCESSES Lanworth’s globally consistent methodology combines: • Forward models that predict plantings based on regularities such as farmer rotation patterns, and yield based on climatological processes and trends. • Diagnostic, simulation, and multivariate deterministic models that integrate weather, soils, and management data into realistic, causal frameworks for yield prediction. • Satellite imagery that provides an independent check on and input into planting and yield models. • Field observations that validate image and model analysis. • Project → Calibrate → Validate
  • 7. US Corn & Soybean plantings Factors impacting corn % of variance explained & full season soy area Realized profitability of corn & soybeans in recent seasons 73.8% Area planted to winter wheat 3.3% Expected profitability of new crop corn & soybeans in late autumn 6.7% Expected profitability of new crop corn & soybeans in early spring 2.4% % of US corn planted by 25 April 7.4%
  • 8. Corn/Soy Rotations in central Illinois (red box zoomed in following slide) 8
  • 9. 2005 9 2006
  • 10. Platform: Satellite Imagery Temporal Signatures, US - Nebraska Corn • Quantify area planted to each crop Soy • Observe planting and flowering date W. Wheat Grassland • Observe areas under stress where we need to direct our field teams • Quantify area lost to flooding or other extreme weather events Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 10
  • 11. Platform: GPS–spatially verified field observations are overlaid on top of satellite imagery maps • Routes cover major producing districts in major producing states • Planned from imagery to capture variability in field density, size, and type • Skilled observers collect 500+ points per day, noting tillage and planting practices, crop types and residues, growth stage and condition • Field observations supplemented by systematic telephone surveys of yield expectations at maturity and harvest Lanworth ground reference collection routes, June 2010. More than 30,000 GPS points were collected by five field teams to support US corn, soybean, spring wheat planted area estimates.
  • 12. Platform: providing an edge on crop yield • Lanworth monitors the resources the crop receives that cause grain fill • Other forecasters try to sample the results of grain fill • This allows Lanworth yield forecasts to beat other forecasters and the USDA by 2-4 weeks to the most accurate estimate Figure: Lanworth and USDA estimates of 2011/12 US corn (left) and soybean (right) yield. USDA estimates are from the July WASDE and August through November Crop Production reports. Biophysical plant growth and development models intake daily observed precipitation, daytime/nighttime temperature, solar radiation, soil moisture levels in localized regions.
  • 13. Minimum Temperature, Jul-Aug (F) 2013/14 US Drought And Weather Outlook Deviation from US corn yield trend more than 15% below 3-15% below Within 5% 3-15% above 2013/14 scenarios 66.2 and 68.8 F Trend, 1985-2012 Soil moisture August (mm per 1.6 m) Year 2013/14 US yield outlooks Corn: 155.7 [132.9-166.8] bpa Soybeans: 43.0 [38.8-45.3] bpa
  • 14. 2013 routes for yield data collection BR/AR
  • 15. South America Field Observations Northern Buenos Aires Southern Córdoba Southern Santa Fe Total 2011 2,245 2,143 2,651 2,315 Beans per square meter 2012 2013 2013/2yr ave 2,115 2,395 10% 1,531 2,413 31% 1,909 2,724 19% 1,861 2,486 19%
  • 16. South America Crop Vegetation Density Profiles Paraná Vegetation Index Central Argentina 25Nov 5Jan 15Feb 25Mar 5May 1Nov 10Dec 20Jan 1Mar
  • 17. Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Santo Haryowibowo Th S H ib Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Th R J k I d i S H ib R I d i S H ib Thomson Reuters Jakarta R J k Santo HaryowibowoThomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Th Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Santo Haryowibowo Santo Haryowibowo Sales Specialist Commodities and Energy Mobile: +62.815.1085.2000 Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Email: santo.haryowibowo@thomsonreuters.com  Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo S ib h k d i S ib h d i S ib Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Indonesia Santo Haryowibowo Thomson Reuters Jakarta Thomson Reuters Jakarta Thomson Reuters Jakarta Thomson Reuters Jakarta Thomson Reuters Jakarta Thomson Reuters Jakarta Thomson Reuters Jakarta Thomson Reuters Jakarta Thomson Reuters Jakarta Thomson Reuters Jakarta Thomson Reuters Jakarta Thomson Reuters Jakarta Thomson Reuters Jakarta Thomson Reuters Jakarta Thomson Reuters Jakarta Thomson Reuters Jakarta Thomson Reuters Jakarta Thomson Reuters Jakarta h k Thomson Reuters Jakarta Thomson Reuters Jakarta Thomson Reuters Jakarta Thomson Reuters Jakarta Thomson Reuters Jakarta

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