Financial Instruments & Fair Value
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×
 

Financial Instruments & Fair Value

on

  • 2,014 views

Presentation by Sanjay Uppal at the IASB Middle East Policy Forum, November 2008

Presentation by Sanjay Uppal at the IASB Middle East Policy Forum, November 2008

Statistics

Views

Total Views
2,014
Views on SlideShare
1,987
Embed Views
27

Actions

Likes
0
Downloads
35
Comments
0

4 Embeds 27

http://www.linkedin.com 19
http://www.slideshare.net 5
https://www.linkedin.com 2
http://www.slashdocs.com 1

Accessibility

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

    Financial Instruments & Fair Value Financial Instruments & Fair Value Presentation Transcript

    • Financial Instruments & Fair Value Sanjay Uppal Group Chief Financial Officer Emirates NBD Middle East Policy Forum 12 November 2008 Dubai
    • Global Financial Markets : Stormy times ahead 1
    • Global banking assets bubble – how loud will be the burst ? 87 Contraction US Fed Funds rate 79 to 77trn ? fe ct Ef 68 Overshoot possible 57 56 on) trilli io & S$ Re ern eak 49 ts (U lat e gu anc n Asse Go + W ing Bank 42 v 37 37 Cause 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Challenges in raising capital & funding in international markets will persist Lower Fed rate has not resulted in lower costs of borrowing as credit spreads widen The unwinding of the excesses of 2005-2007 will be long and painful The challenges are systemic – pursuit of individual victories will by myopic Note: Banking Assets data includes United States, Latin America, Western Europe, China, India & Japan 2
    • Revisiting the Standards in stressed times 13 October 2008 3
    • IFRS 7 & IAS 39 : Rationale revisited IFRS 7 : To require the entities to provide disclosures in their financial statements that enable users to evaluate a) the significance of financial instruments for the entity’s financial position and performance; and b) the nature and extent of risks arising from financial instruments to which the entity is exposed during the period and at the reporting date, and how the entity manages those risks. IAS 39 : To establish principles for recognizing and measuring financial assets, financial liabilities and some contracts to buy or sell non financial items. 4
    • Current times – an opportunity to test the effectiveness of Standards under stress IFRS vs. UK GAAP Turmoil requires speedy response from rule makers [standards setters, regulators, etc] Reclassifications Reducing volatility vs. Deferring recognition of true value Consistency of application : Adoption, Valuation models, etc. Asset valuation : Potential deterrent to business combination 5
    • Hedge effectiveness…..how effective ? Hedge accounting / effectiveness served well during normal times…. Hedges may not be effective now – creating additional volatility. Stressed markets – is economic effectiveness now ineffective ? 6
    • Active markets…..are valuations reliable? Fair value or ‘fire’ value ? Reclassification : Relief in earnings volatility……but impairments may still be required Distressed transactions vs. distressed markets – Can orderly transactions take place in a distressed and inactive market Illiquid markets – widening gap between market value & intrinsic value “Fair valuation accounting rules are flawed because they don’t describe how to accurately determine the value of an asset in a distressed market” - American Banking Association to SEC 7
    • Fair valuation…..assets & liabilities Overarching mismatch between fair valuation of assets & liabilities – Credit Suisse study claimed 34% of assets & 11% of liabilities are fair valued Fair valuation of debt issued – widening credit spreads or becoming less creditworthy can actually boost companies earnings (e.g. Lehman's Q3-2007) Can a company monetize changes to fair value of its debt where there is ‘no doubt’ that the company will pay back the debt ? Bull markets & fair valuation allowed us to create capital that never existed – Bear markets have created situations where one has to raise physical capital to cover reversal of gains that perhaps were never really there 8
    • Earnings volatility….self feeding prophecy ! Volatility & fair valuations – is this because of momentum traders rather than fundamental traders ? $ 1.2 trillion of US sub prime mortgages, with $ 300 billion provided by Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) insured banks and rest held by investors – fair value, if not caused, accelerated the problem with write-down of illiquid securities at fire sale prices compromising balance sheet and regulatory ratios An infection which is potentially self-propagating 9
    • Credit Default Swaps : The Derivative Chernobyl ? 10
    • Credit Default Swaps – the $ 55 trillion nightmare 11
    • CDS : Sellers’ Profile Limited transparency presents challenges in understanding potential impact 12
    • 5 year CDS spreads : On the run ENBD Capital Structure 450 2000 400 1800 350 1600 1400 300 1200 250 bps bps 1000 200 800 150 600 100 400 ITRAXX EUROPE 50 200 ITRAXX -XOVERS 0 0 9/ 10 11 12 1/ 2/ 3/ 4/ 5/ 6/ 7/ 8/ 9/ 10 20 /2 /2 /2 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 /2 /2 0 /2 0 /2 0 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 /2 0/ 00 0 0 0 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 20 7 07 07 07 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 08 Spreads : Volatility, often with questionable credibility Widening of spread could result in material write-downs in earnings iTraxx Europe Index : Composed of 125 investment grade entities from 6 sectors: Autos, Consumers, Energy, Financials, Industrials, & TMT iTraxx Europe Xover : Composed of 30 non financial sub investment grade entities 13
    • Credit Default Swaps….. Notional amount of CDS outstanding fell from $ 62 trillion to under $ 55 trillion as dealers worked to eliminate offsetting trades Credit Default Swap market is not regulated making it difficult to estimate value of outstanding contracts. Lehman exposure was originally estimated at $ 400 b – however the actual exposure was $ 78 billion AIG reported big losses due to writedown of several billion US$ on its CDS holdings Meltdown in CDS market has potentially wider ramifications than the subprime crisis. If bond insurance disappears or becomes too costly, lenders will become even more cautious about making loans. This will affect the amount & cost of liquidity in the market. CDS fair valuation with widening credit spreads – what is the real impact ? 14
    • Way Forward : Searching for our Yellow Brick Road 15
    • Key themes to draw Mark to market is an important component of risk control. Increased transparency – are we better off ? Lack of consistent valuation standards, questionable valuation models and veracity of valuation specialist – judgmental issues & lawsuits Abandoning fair value in response to short term pressures will hurt long term confidence – but, what is fair value ? Volatility in earnings through distressed valuations detrimental to market confidence; further contribute to downward spiral Valuations = ‘Fire’ value vs. ‘Intrinsic’ value ? The lessons have been learnt – it is time for standard setters & accountants to help global economies weather the perfect storm 16