COP15 Failure Analysis And The Obama Basic Deal (PART 2)


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Part 2 of the COP15 Failure Analysis focuses on EQUITY. A important part of the U.N. Charter, the Danish Text of COP15 insisted on two different emission targets for the rich and poor nations, that was later corrected in the OBAMA BASIC deal.

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COP15 Failure Analysis And The Obama Basic Deal (PART 2)

  1. 1. WHY COP15 Danish Accord FAILED? The devil was in the details. PART 2 EQUITY Comparing the DANISH ACCORD with the OBAMA BASIC Deal MANIPULATING “THE EQUAL RIGHTS OF ALL HUMANS” THE BLAME GAME The Danes have no one to blame, but themselves and the EU for the fiasco at Copenhagen. They must be thankful to the OBAMA BASIC combine who were able to broker the semblance of a deal that saved the hosts from facing more embarrassment. Had it been left to them the 17,000 delegates of 192 nations would have had to go home empty handed. We will see here what infuriated the delegates of the majority countries of the world the most. OBAMA STOOPS TO CONQUER That Obama pulled the rabbit out of his hat at the last moment, and was willing to extend a reconciliatory handshake to the angry Chinese Premier Wen, who sent his Vice Premier to meet Obama, showed his sincerity to the cause. It speaks volumes about why Obama is fast becoming a respected statesman, and not only yet another U.S. President like his predecessor. Several world leaders have indirectly criticised the Danish Premier Rasmussen for his poor leadership during the conference, especially during the endgame after he took over the reins officially from the originally appointed COP15 President Connie Hedegaard on 16 of December. CONNIE SHUNTED OUT It is no secret that COP15 President Connie Hedegaard was almost forced to quit by the deliberate insult meted out to her by the EU keeping her out of a crucial closed door EU meeting .EU could not accept that she wanted a more open and democratic climate at the summit. She had indirectly opposed the attempt by EU to control the talks by using the host nation advantage and try to divide the G77. The EU and Rasmussen had somehow believed that the BASIC combine would ultimately split or yield to their pressure tactics and agree under duress to accept the extremely flawed and technically improbable “Danish Text “ as a accord. The accord which was originally drafted by the Aussies and then adopted by the Danes, had the EU giving the final touches. The hosts forgot the might and the economic clout of the emerging economies and the strong leadership of China, which has won many such eyeball to eyeball confrontations in the recent past.
  2. 2. EUROPES MEDIA BLAST RASMUSSEN The cloak and dagger ploys of the Danish hosts not only had to bear the shame of the tag of “Floppenhagen” as given by the German newsgroup Bild but was roundly criticised by most European nations as well. The Financial Times called the Prime Ministers ham handed attempts of managing the summit after ejecting Connie,” resulting in worsening the crisis”. Independent news agency AFP accused Rasmussen of speaking nonsense and newspapers from Switzerland, France and Britain were downright critical. Martin Kohr of the respected British daily The Guardian stated categorically in his post Copenhagen roundup “Blame Denmark not China for Copenhagen failure “ while John Prescott went as far as saying “l am on the side of the developing nations” holding up the lofty tradition of the independent British Media. EU PROPOSES UNEQUAL EMISSION RIGHTS FOR RICH & POOR But Rasmussen was not the only one to blame. The devil was in the details of the original Australian proposal. This, modified by the French and British which made it worse was finally given to the hosts to present as the official draft of the Copenhagen accord now known as the infamous “Danish Text” It even dared to spell out the unthinkable...…. The modern twentieth century world is in favour of equal rights of humans living in different nations of the world . It was indeed amateurish by Denmark and the EU delegates to think that they could force down the throat of the 192 UN delegates a draft devoid of equity. A draft that was previously rejected and discredited during the discussions prior to the summit. The Aussie draft that had been criticised roundly by heavyweights China and India and rejected by the G77 both at the pre-summit meets at Barcelona and Bangkok. One of the critical issues that was the bone of contention was Equity. The EU version of the accord was not acceptable by the developing world as it was not based on fair play and equity. Equity is very important in the modern day world were all men and women are considered equal as per the U.N. Charter under any democratic constitution in most parts of the world. Equity is sacred. Equity cannot be sacrificed. Equity was absent in the Danish Text but brought back in the OBAMA BASIC Deal . No wonder it took just 2 hours for Obama to clinch the deal that EU failed to do in two years time at Copenhagen.
  3. 3. THE DANISH TEXT WAS NOT ONLY POLITICALLY OUTRAGEOUS & BUT ALSO TECHNICALLY IMPROBABLE What the Danish Text said was not only emotionally unacceptable and politically outrageous for the delegates of the 192 nations, but also technically improbable. It had a seven point agenda one of which was to: “ Not to allow poor countries to emit more than 1.44 tonnes of carbon per person by 2050, while allowing rich countries to emit 2.67 tones of Co2 per person.” When leaked to the British news daily The Guardian on the second day of the Conference it created an understandable furore, but saved the Conference from an en masse walkout, that would have happened had it been sprung at a later date. Though both these figures of per capita emission for the rich and poor nations are technically not feasible to achieve given the current trends, futures and technologies it was not ignored but created an infinite damage. It aroused passions amongst the politicians to the extent that few small communist nations got a chance to call for a war against capitalism. It was a needless display of aggro by the Viking nation that could have been easily avoided. Any novice would have known that EU targets of Carbon emission were not a practical proposition by looking at the current C02 footprint of the nations. But instead of rejecting such absurd figures the politicians took off their gloves and after that it was free for all. No wonder Sunita Narain the respected climate scientist and the Director of CSE India stated that “Copenhagen was a Conference of the deaf “ The current figures of per capita C02 emissions are 10 times higher, exposing this lie and the dishonesty of the “Danish text” We are giving here the current “Carbon Footprint of Nations” as issued by the politically neutral and respected Norwegian University NTNU.
  4. 4. “Danish Text Targets” Year 2050 Rich Nations 2.67 Ton C02 equ/person Poor Nations 1.44 Ton C02 equ/person 2009 Reality Check Footprint per Footprint per Rich capita capita Poor Nations Nations [ton CO2 equ./ [ton CO2 equ./ person] person] United States 29 Uruguay 6,8 Australia 21 Latvia 6,7 Canada 20 Argentina 6,5 Switzerland 18 Bulgaria 6,1 Finland 18 South Africa 6,0 Netherlands 17 Lithuania 5,9 Belgium 17 Mexico 5,6 Ireland 16 Romania 5,2 Cyprus 16 Chile 4.9 United 15 Brazil 4,1 Kingdom Denmark 15 China 3.1 India 1.8 Source Norwegian Institute Of Science & Technology NTNU’s “Carbon Footprint of Nations 2009 Data.” This was a major bone of contention that would not ever be resolved unless the developing countries capsized under the tremendous pressure the G7 mounted. That was however not to be with the economically powerful and widely represented BASIC group taking shape that represented nearly half the global population. Obama quickly seized the situation and the futility of such an action and changed track completely in a rapid response move.
  5. 5. THE COMPARITIVE : OBAMA BASIC TEXT UPHOLDING EQUITY . This is the excerpt from the advanced unedited text of the Copenhagen OBAMA BASIC deal issued and circulated by the WWF 1) Deep emission cuts on BASIS of EQUITY in the OBAMA BASIC deal has now been enshrined in the Copenhagen treaty. It says unequivocally that “ We agree that deep cuts in global emissions are required according to science, and as documented by the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report with a view to reduce global emissions so as to hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius, and take action to meet this objective consistent with science and on the basis of equity” No wonder the OBAMA BASIC deal comes out superior to the Danish Draft Accord at Copenhagen, and has a real chance of success, if pursued in future without the traditional cloak and dagger politics that has been going on since the last fifteen years when the COP Conferences began. References of previous works on COP15 Why #COP15 Danish Accord Failed. DISTRUST Part 1 (Slide Share ) Why COP15 Danish Accord Failed. DISTRUST Part 1 (Scribd COP 15 : Deal Sabotage : Burying Kyoto at Copenhagen ( Slide Share) COP 15 : Gassing 15 years on Carbon Economy ( Slide Share ) COP 15 : Bullshitting 15 yrs on Climate change (Slide Share) The Imelda story of Cap & Feed. Why the planet earth suffers (You tube) Cap & Trade Energy Mathematics (You tube video) The Imelda Story ( Scribd) Cap & Trade energy maths at Scribd ( Scribd) For any Queries, Objections or Source confirmation of data please contact the author Sandip Sen at