SE 313A Operating Systems Unit 1


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SE 313A Operating Systems Unit 1

  1. 1. EP 704 Unit 6 Project Time Management Dr. J. Michael Bennett, P. Eng., PMP UNENE, McMaster University, The University of Western Ontario Version 2K6-X-08
  2. 2. Revisions <ul><li>2K6-X-08 Initial Creation </li></ul>
  3. 3. EP 704 Road Map <ul><li>Unit 1 Introduction to Project Management </li></ul><ul><li>Unit 2 The Project Management Context </li></ul><ul><li>Unit 3 Project Management Processes </li></ul><ul><li>Unit 4 Project Integration Management </li></ul><ul><li>Unit 5 Project Scope Management </li></ul><ul><li>Unit 6 Project Time Management </li></ul><ul><li>Unit 7 Project Cost Management </li></ul><ul><li>Unit 8 Project Quality Management </li></ul><ul><li>Unit 9 Project Human Resource Management </li></ul><ul><li>Unit 10 Project Communications Management </li></ul><ul><li>Unit 11 Project Risk Management </li></ul><ul><li>Unit 12 Project Procurement Management </li></ul>
  4. 4. Process Time Management <ul><li>Here we estimate the time and sequencing of WBEs </li></ul><ul><li>Must have the WBS done </li></ul><ul><li>The material is presented as sequential but likely will be significant overlap </li></ul><ul><li>In smaller projects, activity sequencing and duration and schedule development will be a single process done by the PM </li></ul>
  5. 5. Project Time Management Processes <ul><li>6.1 Activity Definition </li></ul><ul><li>6.2 Activity Sequencing </li></ul><ul><li>6.3 Activity Resource Estimating </li></ul><ul><li>6.4 Activity Duration Estimating </li></ul><ul><li>6.5 Schedule Development </li></ul><ul><li>6.6 Schedule Control </li></ul>
  6. 6. 6.1 Activity Definition .1 Inputs .1 EEF .2 OPA . 3 Scope Statement .4 WBS .5 WBS Dictionary .6 PMP .2 Tools and Techniques .1 Decomposition .2 Templates .3 Rolling Wave Planning .4 XJ .5 Planning Component .3 Output . 1 Activity list .2 Activity Attributes . 3 Milestone List .4 Requested Changes 6.3 Activity Resource Estimating .1 Inputs .1 EEF .2 OPA .3 Activity List .4 Activity Attributes .5 Resource Availability .6 PMP .2 Tools and Techniques . 1 Expert judgment .2 Alternatives Analysis .3 Published Estimating Data .4 PM Software .5 Bottom-up Estimating .3 Output .1 Activity Resource Requirements .2 Activity Attributes (Updates) .3 Resource Breakdown Structure .4 Resource Calendars (Updates) .5 Requested Changes 6.2 Activity Sequencing .1 Inputs .1 Scope Statement .2 Activity List . 3 Activity Attributes .4 Milestone List .5 Approved Change Requests .2 Tools and Techniques .1 Precedence diagramming (PDM) .2 Arrow diagramming (ADM) .3 Schedule Network Templates .4 Dependency Determination .5 Applying Leads and Lags .3 Output .1 Schedule Network Diagrams .2 Activity Lists (Updates) .3 Activity Attributes (Updates) .4 Requested Changes PMI Project Time Management
  7. 7. PMI Project Cost Management 6.6 Schedule Control .1 Inputs .1 Schedule Management Plan .2 Schedule Baseline .3 Performance Reports .4 Approved Change Requests .2 Tools and Techniques .1 Progress Reporting .2 Schedule CC System .3 Performance Measurement .5 PM software .6 Variance analysis .7 Schedule Comparison Bar Charts .3 Output .1 Schedule Model Data (Updates) .2 Schedule Baseline (Updates) .3 Performance Measurements .4 Requested Changes .5 Recommended Corrective Actions .6 OPA (Updates) .7 Activity List (Updates) .8 PMP (Updates) .9 Activity Attributes (Updates) 6.4 Activity Duration Estimating .1 Inputs .1 EEF .2 OPA .3 Scope Statement .4 Activity List .5 Activity Attributes .6 Activity Resource Requirements .7 Resource Calendars .8 PMP - Risk Register - Activity Cost Estimates .2 Tools and Techniques .1 Expert Judgment .2 Analogous Estimating .3 Parametric Estimating .4 Three-point Estimates .5 Reserve Analysis .3 Output .1 Activity Duration Estimations .2 Activity Attributes (Updates) 6.5 Schedule Development .1 Inputs .1 OPA 2 Scope Statement .3 Activity List .4 Activity Attributes .5 Schedule Network Diagrams .6 Activity Resource Requirements .7 Resource Calendars .8 Activity Duration Estimates .9 Risk Register .2 Tools and Techniques .1 Schedule Network Analysis .2 Critical Path Method .3 Schedule Compression .4 What-if Scenario Analysis .5 Resource Leveling .6 Critical Chain Method .7 PM Software .8 Applying Calendars .9 Adjusting Leads and Lags .10 Schedule Model .3 Output .1 Project Schedule .2 Schedule Model Data .3 Schedule Baseline .4 Resource Requirements (Updates) .5 Activity Attributes (Updates) .6 Project Calendars (Updates) .7 Requested Changes .8 PMP (Updates)
  8. 8. 6.1 Activity Definition Scope Statement WBS+D Res Avail History, Calendar Resource Availability Resource Availability Activity Cost Estimates Risk Register Performance Reports Work Performance Information OPA Updates History, Calendar PMP, SMP Activity List, Attributes, Milestone List Requested Changes Requested Changes PMP Updates Schedule Network Diagrams Requested Changes Requested Changes Requested Changes Requested Changes Approved Change Reqs Act Res Rqs, RBS, Res Cals Activity Duration Estimates Schedule; Model data; Sched Baseline; Res Reqs; Proj Cal UD Perf Mease; UDs of AL, AA, ;PMP, Sked BL; Proj Sked 6.2 Activity Sequencing 6.3 Activity Resource Est. 6.4 Activity Duration Est. 6.5 Schedule Development Enterprise Environmental 12.4 Select Sellers 4.3 Develop PMP 4.6 Int Change Control Organizational Process Assets 5.2 Scope Definition 5.3 Create WBS 9.2 Acquire Project Team 7.1 Cost Estimation 10.3 Performance Reporting 4.7 Close Project 4.4 Project Execution 11.2-5 Risk Planning 6.6 Schedule Control
  9. 9. 6.1 Activity Definition 1 Decomposition 2 Templates 3 Rolling Wave 4 XJ 5 Planning Comp 1 Activity List 2 Activity Atts 3 Milestone List 4 Req’ed Changes 1 EEF 2 OPA 3 Scope Statement 4 WBS 5 WBS Dictionary 6 PMP
  10. 10. 1 Activity List <ul><li>Comprehensive list of all project schedule activities </li></ul><ul><li>Includes schedule identifier and enough detail for the team to understand what to do </li></ul><ul><li>Usd in the schedule model and the PMP </li></ul><ul><li>AL ≠ WBS components </li></ul>
  11. 11. 2 Activity Attributes <ul><li>Such as </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Activity identifier </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Activity codes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Activity description </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Predecessor activities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Successor activities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Logical relationships </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Leads and lags </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Resource requirements </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Imposed dates </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Assumptions and constraints </li></ul></ul>
  12. 12. 3 Milestone List <ul><li>All milestones must be IDed </li></ul><ul><li>Mandatory or optional </li></ul>
  13. 13. 4 Requested Changes <ul><li>AD can generate changes </li></ul>
  14. 14. 6.1.2 Activity Definition: T&T <ul><li>1 Decomposition </li></ul><ul><li>2 Templates </li></ul><ul><li>3 Rolling Wave </li></ul><ul><li>4 XJ </li></ul><ul><li>5 Planning Component </li></ul>
  15. 15. Recall Simon’s Tripartite Division <ul><li>Level 1 – Milestones </li></ul><ul><li>Level 2 – WBSes </li></ul><ul><li>Level 3 – Schedule Activities </li></ul>
  16. 16. EHB Example <ul><li>Milestone – sign-off of Driver module </li></ul><ul><li>WBS – completed requirements </li></ul><ul><li>SA – review requirements with customer Stakeholders - ½ day 4 people </li></ul>
  17. 17. 1 Decomposition <ul><li>Subdivides WPs into smaller components; called schedule activities </li></ul><ul><li>These are schedule driven not deliverable driven </li></ul>
  18. 18. 2 Templates <ul><li>Useful from previous projects </li></ul><ul><li>Used to estimate resource skills, hours of effort, risk ID, etc </li></ul>
  19. 19. 3 Rolling Wave <ul><li>Progressive elaboration </li></ul><ul><li>Detail near-term events </li></ul><ul><li>Leave the far-term adumbrated, to be detailed later at a more appropriate time </li></ul><ul><li>Early on, leave far-term at the milestone level </li></ul>
  20. 20. 4 XJ <ul><li>Mumble mumble </li></ul>
  21. 21. 5 Planning Component <ul><li>When insufficient definition of the scope is available to decompose the WBS, leave the last node as a PC </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Control Account: a node to be developed further later </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Planning Package: subcomponent above the WP but below the CA </li></ul></ul>
  22. 22. 6.1.3 Activity Definitions: Outputs <ul><li>.1 Activity List </li></ul><ul><li>.2 Activity Attributes </li></ul><ul><li>.3 Milestone List </li></ul><ul><li>.4 Requested Changes </li></ul>
  23. 23. 1 Activity List <ul><li>Includes all schedule activities needed to be done on the project </li></ul><ul><li>Includes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Activity identifier </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Work description in enough detail to schedule and understand the work </li></ul></ul><ul><li>SAs are discrete units but are NOT WPs </li></ul>
  24. 24. 2 Activity Attributes <ul><li>Expansion of characteristics of SAs including </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Activity ID </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Activity code </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Activity description </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Predecessor activities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Successor activities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Logical relationships </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Leads and lags </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Resource requirements </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Imposed dates </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Constraints </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Assumptions </li></ul></ul>
  25. 25. 3 Milestone List <ul><li>List of all milestones </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mandatory </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Optional </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Will be part of the PMP and used for Milestone Scheduling </li></ul>
  26. 26. 4 Requested Changes <ul><li>Since we are fleshing out interior details of the WPs, changes will be needed as more detail is unfolded. </li></ul><ul><li>Fed through ICC of course. </li></ul>
  27. 27. 6.2 Activity Sequencing 1 PDM 2 ADM 3 Sched NW Temps 4 Dependency Det. 5 Leads and Lags 1 Scope Statement 2 Activity List 3 Activity Attributes 4 Milestone List 5 App’d Change Reqs 1 Sched NW Diags 2 Act. Lists (Up) 3 Act. Atts (Up) 4 Req’d Changes
  28. 28. Modalities of Scheduling <ul><li>Gantt/bar charts </li></ul><ul><li>Milestone charts </li></ul><ul><li>Networks </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ADM </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Precedence </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>PERT </li></ul></ul>
  29. 29. Problems with Each <ul><li>Gantts do not show interdependencies </li></ul><ul><li>PER Ts et al are time intensive , too much detail </li></ul><ul><li>Each is useful in their own right; not the final solution </li></ul>
  30. 30. Example: Gantt, Milestone, PERT 1 14 4 14 1 5 3 4 3 1 1 4 7 2 2 1 7 6 1 2 5 4 6 3 7 2 4 5 3 6 7 2 2 4 1 3
  31. 31. Network Fundamentals <ul><li>Shown through a diagram. Visualization of: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Activity interdependence </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Project completion time </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Impact of early/late starts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Trade-off analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ what if” scenarios </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cost of crashing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Slippages in planning/performance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Performance evaluation </li></ul></ul>
  32. 32. 6.2.2 Tools & Techniques <ul><li>1 Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM) </li></ul><ul><li>2 Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM) </li></ul><ul><li>3 Schedule Network Templates </li></ul><ul><li>4 Dependency Determination </li></ul><ul><li>5 Leads and Lags </li></ul>
  33. 33. 1 Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM) <ul><li>Also called AON (activity on Node) </li></ul><ul><li>Puts effort on the node </li></ul><ul><li>Most common today </li></ul>
  34. 34. PDM (pmbok) Begin End H L K J I F G E D C A B
  35. 35. Definitions (activities on node: AON) <ul><li>Event is start or end of group of activities (circle) </li></ul><ul><li>Activity is work required to move from event to event (node time) </li></ul>Complete testing Final report 6/2 9/3
  36. 36. Dependency Relations <ul><li>Finish-to-Start (must finish before next can start) </li></ul><ul><li>Finish-to-Finish (must finish before next can finish) </li></ul><ul><li>Start-to-Start (must start before next can start) </li></ul><ul><li>Start-to-Finish (must start before next can finish) </li></ul><ul><li>All of these assume 100% completion; could have a percentage </li></ul>
  37. 37. Network Analysis ES ACTIVITY DESCRIPTION A# Dur EF LS LF
  38. 38. Zero or 1? <ul><li>Note do we start at day 0 or day 1? </li></ul><ul><li>Most folks start at 0 </li></ul>1 1 A 4 5 5 B 3 0 0 A 4 4 4 B 3
  39. 39. Forward Pass 1 1 A 1 2 2 B 3 5 5 D 5 2 3 C 2 10 10 F 3 4 7 E 3
  40. 40. Earliest-Latest Dates 10 10 F 3 1 1 1 1 A 1 2 2 B 3 5 5 D 5 2 3 C 2 4 7 E 3 12 12 7 9 3 4 4 4 9 9
  41. 41. Backward Pas -8 D 5 0 F 3 0 -8 -3 -3 -11 -11 -12 -12 A 1 B 3 C 2 E 3 0 0
  42. 42. Critical Path 10 10 F 3 1 1 A 1 2 2 B 3 2 3 C 2 4 7 E 3 12 12 7 9 3 4 1 1 2 4 5 5 D 5 5 9
  43. 43. Comments <ul><li>Idea of Critical Path </li></ul><ul><li>Note FP is done to estimate finish date </li></ul><ul><li>BP is done when finish date is fixed and you want to know when to start </li></ul><ul><li>Must be the same </li></ul>
  44. 44. 1 0 ID Customer 3 3 2 3 Develop Questionnaire 13 10 6 38 Print Q 48 10 4 33 Rev, Finalize Q 38 5 7 38 Develop DA SW 50 12 5 38 Mail labels 40 2 8 38 Develop Test Data 40 2 1 48 Mail Qs, get Resps 9 113 65 a 50 Test SW 55 5 3 13 Test Q 33 20 1 113 Input Res Data b 120 7 c 120 Analyze Data 128 8 1 128 Prepare Report d 183 10 -5 -8 25 5 5 -5 30 25 105 100 100 98 120 112 112 105 130 120
  45. 45. 2 Activity on Arrow (Arrow Diagramming Method) <ul><li>Event is start or end of group of activities (circle) </li></ul><ul><li>Activity is work required to move from event to event (arrow) </li></ul>Complete testing Final report 2 weeks 6 9
  46. 46. Sources and Sinks Source (burst point) Sink 6 23 33 8 77 11 10 9
  47. 47. Comments <ul><li>Idea of Critical Path </li></ul><ul><li>Can use optimistic, normal or pessimistic time estimates (Ro6?) </li></ul><ul><li>Can use “dummy” variables to help in sequencing </li></ul><ul><li>PERT for high variance </li></ul><ul><li>CPM for low </li></ul>
  48. 48. Mathematical Choices <ul><li>Critical Path Method (CPM) </li></ul><ul><li>Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique (GERT) </li></ul><ul><li>Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) </li></ul>
  49. 49. PERT / GERT/Network Analysis <ul><li>Basic Definitions </li></ul><ul><li>How to Crash Critical Paths (later) </li></ul><ul><li>Estimating ranges of completion times </li></ul>
  50. 50. Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique (GERT) <ul><li>Permits an iterative looping in the schedule (none of the others do) </li></ul><ul><li>Uses probabilistic estimates </li></ul>
  51. 51. Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) <ul><li>Uses a weighted average like the Rule of Six </li></ul><ul><li>Good for calculating best, expected and worse case scenarios </li></ul>
  52. 52. The Beta Distribution EV=(BC+4ML+WC)/6 BC ML WC EV
  53. 53. Estimating the SD PERT-wise <ul><li>σ = (WC-BC)/6 </li></ul><ul><li>If you have many, you must add up the variances not the σ s. (var = σ 2 ) </li></ul>
  54. 54. Example 2,3,4 3,5,7 4,7,10 σ ab = 0.33 σ bc = 1.0 σ cd = 0.67 σ ad = √ σ 2 ab + σ 2 bc + σ 2 cd σ ad = √ (.33 2 +1.0 2 +0.67 2 ) = 1.25 a b c d
  55. 55. Definitions <ul><li>Dependencies </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Hard – must be done first </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Soft – may be necessary or not (I can start hi gh level design before all requirements are done) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>External – beyond PM’s control </li></ul></ul>
  56. 56. Dummy Activities D A B C DUMMY 4<1,2,3 1 2 5 3 4
  57. 57. Slack Time <ul><li>= time between scheduled completion date and required date (to meet CP) </li></ul><ul><li>T E is earliest time event can take place </li></ul><ul><li>T L is latest time </li></ul><ul><li>S T = |T E – T L | </li></ul>
  58. 58. PERT with Slack Time 3 6 7 2 T E =3T L =3 5 5 3 T E =0T L =0 T E =2 T L =5 T E =10T L =10 T E =15T L =15 T E =6T L =9 2 4 5 3 6 1
  59. 59. Can Refine <ul><li>ES = earliest start </li></ul><ul><li>EF = earliest finish </li></ul><ul><li>LS = latest start </li></ul><ul><li>LF = latest finish </li></ul>
  61. 61. PERT with Full Slack Times B(6,15)9(6,15) D(6,12) 6(11,17) A(0,6)6(0,6) H(12,16) 4(18,22) G(12,14)6(17,19) E(15,18) 3(15,18) F(15,22) 7(15,22) I(18,21) 3(19,22) C(6,11) 5(14,19)
  62. 62. PERTing Along develop schedule plan? feedback BL plans & schedule Resource control Management Approval $?  ? res? no no no no
  63. 63. How to Feedback? <ul><li>Transfer resources from sps to cps </li></ul><ul><li>Eliminate activities </li></ul><ul><li>Add more resources </li></ul><ul><li>Use less time-consuming activities </li></ul><ul><li>Parallelize more </li></ul><ul><li>Shorten CP </li></ul><ul><li>Shorten earliest activities </li></ul>
  64. 64. <ul><li>Shorten latest activities </li></ul><ul><li>Increase number of working hours/day </li></ul><ul><li>Use cheaper people </li></ul>
  65. 65. Parallelizing to Shrink Critical Paths 2 3 2 3 4 0 16 4 16 0 1 1 4
  66. 66. Nested PERTs E B C F D 7 2 5 4 4 8 6 9 A F A 7 8 5 4 3 6
  67. 67. PERT Life Cycle <ul><li>1 lay out list of activities </li></ul><ul><li>2 order them and add arrows </li></ul><ul><li>3 review with line managers </li></ul><ul><li>4 doers add time estimates (unlimited Res) </li></ul><ul><li>5 PM adds calendar dates (limitations) </li></ul><ul><li>6 Checks reality of calendar dates </li></ul>
  68. 68. Perturbation Analysis <ul><li>Always check if times change dramatically </li></ul><ul><li>Primary Objectives are: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Best time </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Least cost </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Least risk </li></ul></ul>
  69. 69. Secondary Objectives <ul><li>Alternatives </li></ul><ul><li>Optimum schedules </li></ul><ul><li>Effective use of resources </li></ul><ul><li>Communications </li></ul><ul><li>Refinement of the estimating process </li></ul><ul><li>Ease of project control </li></ul><ul><li>Ease of time/cost revisions </li></ul>
  70. 70. PERT Constraints <ul><li>Calendar completion </li></ul><ul><li>Cash flow </li></ul><ul><li>Limited resources </li></ul><ul><li>Management approvals </li></ul>
  71. 71. PERTs and CPMs <ul><li>PERTs are event-oriented </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Good for R&D </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hard to tell percentage complete </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Payouts at milestones </li></ul></ul><ul><li>CPMs are activity-oriented </li></ul><ul><ul><li>% complete along lines can be done </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Good for well-defined activities </li></ul></ul>
  72. 72. CPM best for <ul><li>Well-defined projects such as construction </li></ul><ul><li>One dominant organization </li></ul><ul><li>Relatively small risk </li></ul><ul><li>One geographic location </li></ul>
  73. 73. Project Software Support <ul><li>Level I (Excel) </li></ul><ul><li>Level II (MS) </li></ul><ul><li>Level III (Artemis) </li></ul><ul><li>Level IV (in-your-dreams) </li></ul><ul><li>REMEMBER </li></ul><ul><li>SOFTWARE DOESN’T MANAGE PROJECTS: PEOPLE DO </li></ul>
  74. 74. SW Capabilities <ul><li>System capacity </li></ul><ul><li>Network schemes (AD/PRE) </li></ul><ul><li>Calendar dates </li></ul><ul><li>Gantt charts </li></ul><ul><li>Flexible report generation </li></ul><ul><li>Updating </li></ul><ul><li>Cost control </li></ul><ul><li>Scheduled dates </li></ul><ul><li>Sorting </li></ul><ul><li>Filtering </li></ul><ul><li>Resource allocation </li></ul><ul><li>Plotting </li></ul><ul><li>Machine requirements </li></ul><ul><li>Cost </li></ul>
  75. 75. 3 Schedule Network Templates <ul><li>Mature organizations will have general templates to begin the work </li></ul><ul><li>Especially if portions are repetitive. Such as floors on a high-rise, clinical trials, software module construction. </li></ul>
  76. 76. 4 Dependency Determination (3 kinds) <ul><li>Mandatory </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Normal (see PDM 4 types) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Discretionary </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Such as a preferred way of executing a sequence of events when there are several OK paths </li></ul></ul><ul><li>External </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Outside the PM’s control such as delivery of necessary hardware, Y2K, laws, etc </li></ul></ul>
  77. 77. 5 Leads and Lags <ul><li>Lead permits the acceleration of the successor task. Eg. Can start chapter 2 15 days before chapter 1 is complete (F2S with 15 day lead) </li></ul><ul><li>Lags delay next task. Concrete must cure for 15 days. Therefore a F2S with a 15 day lag </li></ul><ul><li>Leads and Lags can be negative (but why?) </li></ul>
  78. 78. Lag Time <ul><li>Suppose that B lags A by 3 </li></ul>1 1 A 4 8 8 B 3
  79. 79. 6.3 Activity Resource Estimating 1 EEF 2 OPA 3 Activity List 4 Act Atts 5 Resource Avail 6 PMP 1 Xpert Judgment 2 Alternative Anal 3 Published E Data 4 PM Software 5 Bottom-up Est 1 Act Res Reqs 2 Act Atts (ups) 3 Res BD Structure 4 Res Cals (ups) 5 Req’d Changes
  80. 80. 6.3.1 ARE Inputs <ul><li>EEFs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Uses infrastructure resource availability as per the nature of the company </li></ul></ul><ul><li>OPAs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Policies for staffing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Rental or purchase of supplies, equipment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Historical information </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Resource Availability </li></ul><ul><ul><li>In the market now? Later? </li></ul></ul>
  81. 81. 6.3.2 Tools and Techniques <ul><li>1 Expert Judgment </li></ul><ul><li>2 Alternative Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>3 Published Estimating Data </li></ul><ul><li>4 PM Software </li></ul><ul><li>5 Bottom-up Estimation </li></ul>
  82. 82. 1 Expert Judgment <ul><li>Experts in the area can tell us who we need </li></ul><ul><li>Any group or person having area-specific knowledge useful here </li></ul>
  83. 83. 2 Alternatives Analysis <ul><li>Make-or-buy decisions </li></ul><ul><li>Who can do the work </li></ul><ul><li>May be necessary to outsource some of the schedule activities </li></ul><ul><li>Can we cannibalize other work? </li></ul>
  84. 84. 3 Published Estimating Data <ul><li>There are commercially available books of production rates and unit costs for trades, material, equipment, in many countries or geographical areas </li></ul>
  85. 85. 4 PM Software <ul><li>PM software can use RBSs, resource availability, resource calendars, to allocate for us </li></ul>
  86. 86. 5 Bottom-up Estimation <ul><li>If we cannot estimate the needed resources, may need more decomposition into finer detail. Continue the decomposition until we can estimate and then roll back up </li></ul>
  87. 87. 6.3.3 ARE Outputs <ul><li>1 Activity Resource Requirements </li></ul><ul><li>2 Activity Attributes (ups) </li></ul><ul><li>3 Resource Breakdown Structure </li></ul><ul><li>4 Resource Calendars (ups) </li></ul><ul><li>5 Required Changes </li></ul>
  88. 88. 1 Activity Resource Requirements <ul><li>IDs types and quantities of resources required for each schedule activity. </li></ul><ul><li>Can then roll up for total for the work package </li></ul><ul><li>Will lead to the estimation numbers in the next section </li></ul>
  89. 89. 3 Resource Breakdown Structure <ul><li>Same as WBS only for RBS </li></ul>
  90. 90. 6.4 Activity Duration Estimation 1 EEF 2 OPA 3 Scope Statement 4 Act List 5 Act Attributes 6 Act Res Reqs 7 Res Cals 8 PMP 1 Xpert judgment 2 Analogous Est 3 Parametric Est 4 Three-point Ests 5 Reserve Anal 1 Act Duration Ests 2 Act Atts (ups)
  91. 91. General <ul><li>This is big </li></ul><ul><li>We take all of the preceding and roll it all up into the best time estimate that we can manage. </li></ul><ul><li>We need to know the size of the work and the production rates to time it out </li></ul>
  92. 92. Other things <ul><li>Need to know the expected working periods </li></ul><ul><li>Do you count weekends? </li></ul><ul><li>Also what is the normal metric for effort? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>ph? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>pd? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>pm? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>py? </li></ul></ul>
  93. 93. 6.4.1 Inputs to Activity Duration Est <ul><li>1 EEF </li></ul><ul><li>2 OPA </li></ul><ul><li>3 Scope Statement </li></ul><ul><li>4 Activity List </li></ul><ul><li>5 Activity Attributes </li></ul><ul><li>6 Activity Resource Requirements </li></ul><ul><li>7 Resource Calendars </li></ul><ul><li>8 PMP </li></ul>
  94. 94. 1 EEF <ul><li>Historical data important </li></ul><ul><li>Also when durations are not driven by the work but by things like: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Curing time of concrete </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Time to get approvals through government agencies </li></ul></ul>
  95. 95. 2 OPA <ul><li>Recorded data from previous work important here </li></ul><ul><li>Team effort records (sw for example, fp/m rates of individuals) </li></ul>
  96. 96. Historical Information <ul><li>Can come from the PM morgue </li></ul><ul><li>In many engineering areas, there are tables </li></ul><ul><li>Steel girders, for example </li></ul><ul><li>Unions have rates </li></ul><ul><li>Commercial databases </li></ul>
  97. 97. 3 Scope Statement <ul><li>Assumptions from the Scope; reporting periods can dictate maximum schedule durations </li></ul><ul><li>Review periods </li></ul><ul><li>Document submittals etc. </li></ul>
  98. 98. 6 Activity Resource Requirements <ul><li>Trickery trickery trickery. </li></ul><ul><li>Will affect the schedule </li></ul><ul><li>EG; need 2 engineers to do the design </li></ul><ul><li>If only 1 is available, may take twice (or more likely more than twice) to complete </li></ul><ul><li>Applying n resources will not cut the time by 1/n. In fact may increase it. </li></ul>
  99. 99. Resource Requirements <ul><li>Is it the case that the work can be paralleled? </li></ul><ul><li>For example, two people can do the work twice as fast as one </li></ul><ul><li>But be careful: the fallacy of linear scaling </li></ul><ul><li>There comes a time when adding more people to the work only causes it to take longer </li></ul>
  100. 100. 5 Resource Capabilities <ul><li>People do work at different rates </li></ul><ul><li>Senior people should be faster than juniors </li></ul><ul><li>Some areas are human-specific </li></ul><ul><ul><li>in coding, it has been measured, that holding all other variables constant, there can be a ten to one difference in coding rates (Weinstein, 1972) </li></ul></ul>
  101. 101. 8 PMP Inputs <ul><li>Risk Registry </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Risks are associated with resource availability and goodness of resources </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Activity Cost Estimates </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Can use activity cost estimates from the PMP here </li></ul></ul>
  102. 102. Remember the Cops and the Donuts <ul><li>We need two estimates </li></ul><ul><li>SIZE </li></ul><ul><li>EFFORT </li></ul><ul><li>We also want to specify the confidence levels of our numbers </li></ul><ul><li>Rule of 6 good here </li></ul>
  103. 103. Risk <ul><li>Need to estimate the costs of risk </li></ul><ul><li>High risk means higher costs because of the risk oversight and possible mitigation </li></ul>
  104. 104. 6.3.2 T&T for Activity Duration Est <ul><li>0 Introduction to Estimation </li></ul><ul><li>1 Expert Judgment </li></ul><ul><li>2 Analogous estimates </li></ul><ul><li>3 Parametric Estimating </li></ul><ul><li>4 Three-Point Estimates </li></ul><ul><li>5 Reserve Analysis (contingency) </li></ul>
  105. 105. 0 Estimating in General <ul><li>General Idea </li></ul><ul><li>Rules of Thumbs and SWAGs </li></ul>
  106. 106. General Principles of Estimation <ul><li>General Principles </li></ul><ul><li>Pitfalls of Estimation </li></ul><ul><li>General Volumetrics </li></ul>
  107. 107. General Estimating <ul><li>Estimates are just that! </li></ul><ul><li>Example: how long does it take you to drive to work? </li></ul>
  108. 108. Distributions <ul><li>How measurements might be distributed </li></ul><ul><li>Plot the length of 100 meter sticks </li></ul><ul><li>Plot the Julian birthday of every Canadian (JBD is the day of the year tat you were born. Jan01=1 and Dec 31=365) </li></ul>
  109. 109. The Normal Distribution
  110. 110. Normal Distribution MEAN 6 Σ 3.4 in 10 6 5 Σ 1.0 in 10 5 4 Σ 1.0 in 10 4 3 Σ 1.0 in 10 3 2 Σ 1.0 in 10 2 1 Σ 1.0 in 10 1
  111. 111. Six-Sigma <ul><li>One and two tailed estimates </li></ul><ul><li>Ours are normally one-tailed </li></ul><ul><li>2  is 99% </li></ul><ul><li>3  is 99.9% </li></ul><ul><li>4  is 99.99% </li></ul><ul><li>5  is 99.999% </li></ul><ul><li>6  is 3 part in a million (99.9999) </li></ul>
  112. 112. Question? <ul><li>You have a 2400 square foot house and you order your cleaner to clean it to within 6  . </li></ul><ul><li>What is the size of the largest piece of dirt? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A thimble? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A teacup? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A saucer? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A bathroom? </li></ul></ul>
  113. 113. General Estimating cont. <ul><li>normally, use the average </li></ul><ul><li>the (1+4+1) / 6 is good </li></ul><ul><li>be realistic (factor in time of year) </li></ul>
  114. 114. Rules of Thumbs <ul><li>My Uncle's example </li></ul><ul><li>The Rule of 3 </li></ul><ul><li>The Back of the Envelope </li></ul>
  115. 115. The Rule of 3 <ul><li>3 people in my house </li></ul><ul><li>30 close neighbours </li></ul><ul><li>300 on my jogging route </li></ul><ul><li>3000 in my school draw </li></ul><ul><li>30000 in my ward </li></ul><ul><li>300,000 in London </li></ul><ul><li>3,000,000 in Ontario-Toronto </li></ul><ul><li>30,000,000 in Canada </li></ul><ul><li>300,000,000 in NA (- Mexico) </li></ul><ul><li>3,000,000,000 &quot;consumers&quot; in the world </li></ul>
  116. 116. Rules of Thumbs (jon bentley) <ul><li>How much water flows out of the Mississippi River in one day (cu miles)? </li></ul>
  117. 117. Rule of 72 <ul><li>Exponential are difficult </li></ul><ul><li>Most of our problems ARE expos </li></ul><ul><li>If you invest a sum that must double in y years at an interest rate of r percent/yr then r*y = 72 holds. (RULE OF 72) </li></ul><ul><li>Example, how long will it take for $1,000 to double at 6%? 72/6=12 years ($2012) </li></ul>
  118. 118. Example <ul><li>A program takes 10 seconds for size n=40 </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing n by 1 increases time by 12% (expo) </li></ul><ul><li>Rule-of-72 says RT doubles when n increases by 6 </li></ul><ul><li>By 60, then 1,000 </li></ul><ul><li>By 160, 10 7 seconds </li></ul>
  119. 119. Help Ma! <ul><li>How BIG is 10 7 anyway? </li></ul><ul><li>Actually dear, 3.155x10 7 seconds in a year </li></ul><ul><li>Or  seconds in a nanocentury </li></ul><ul><li>2 64 = 100,000,000 donuts/sec for 5,000 years </li></ul>
  120. 120. The Delphi Approach <ul><li>No clear way to estimate </li></ul><ul><li>Gather a group of Xperts </li></ul><ul><li>Give them the problem; they go away and independently estimate as well as they can </li></ul><ul><li>They meet and exchange information </li></ul><ul><li>Then they repeat the above </li></ul><ul><li>After 3-4 cycles they will normally converge on a unified answer </li></ul>
  121. 121. A Little Quiz (thanks Jon) (give 1+4+1 confidence limits) <ul><li>Canadian population Jan 1,2004 </li></ul><ul><li>Year of Napolean's birth </li></ul><ul><li>Length of the Great Lakes/St Lawrence watershed </li></ul><ul><li>Maximum takeoff weight of a 747 (pds) </li></ul><ul><li>Mass of the earth </li></ul><ul><li>Number of Fathers of Confederation </li></ul>
  122. 122. <ul><li>Latitude of London England </li></ul><ul><li>Number of airplanes in the air at this minute </li></ul><ul><li>Number of PCs in Canada </li></ul><ul><li>Number of bones in the adult human </li></ul>
  123. 123. General Estimating cont. <ul><li>make sure you have a complete SOW </li></ul><ul><li>work out the WBS completely </li></ul><ul><li>hand off to the person responsible to estimate and cost </li></ul><ul><li>collect them in the PP </li></ul><ul><li>note that you do this at EACH of the three levels of report generation </li></ul>
  124. 124. Things to Avoid <ul><li>warm fuzzies </li></ul><ul><li>too-new technologies </li></ul><ul><li>biggies </li></ul><ul><li>too-optimistic estimates </li></ul><ul><li>LINEARITY </li></ul>
  125. 125. Linear Scaling <ul><li>1 person can do the work in 8 days </li></ul><ul><li>2 can do it in 4 </li></ul><ul><li>4 can do it in 2 </li></ul><ul><li>8 can do it in 1 </li></ul><ul><li>16 can do it in ½ a day </li></ul><ul><li>32 in a ¼ </li></ul><ul><li>64 in an hour etc etc </li></ul>
  126. 126. Examples <ul><li>How many kilometers per year does a taxi driver drive if he works an 8 hours day 200 days a year? </li></ul>
  127. 127. Conclusions, Crystal Balling <ul><li>It Works! </li></ul><ul><li>can easily tailor the tool to the organization’s process and culture </li></ul><ul><li>can instrument to collect metrics </li></ul><ul><li>can do the EV easily </li></ul><ul><li>can prompt the user for missing steps </li></ul><ul><li>can archive for the Morgue </li></ul><ul><li>can collect quality metrics </li></ul>
  128. 128. 1 Expert Judgment <ul><li>Remember my definition of xpert </li></ul>
  129. 129. 2 Analogous Estimates <ul><li>Compares against work already done </li></ul><ul><li>Is really a form of expert judgment </li></ul><ul><li>Are most reliable when </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Previously done activities are very similar </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Experts really know the area </li></ul></ul>
  130. 130. 3 Parametric Estimating <ul><li>When we know the rates </li></ul><ul><li>For example, function points and the Industrial Averages </li></ul>
  131. 131. 4 Three-Point Estimates <ul><li>Most likely </li></ul><ul><li>Optimistic </li></ul><ul><li>Pessimistic </li></ul><ul><li>Useful for worst-case, best-case scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>Rule-of-Six gives better estimates </li></ul>
  132. 132. 4 Reserve Analysis (contingency) <ul><li>Buffer in case of risky activities </li></ul><ul><li>Need to annotate the reasons for asking for one </li></ul><ul><li>Known-unknowns (contingency) </li></ul><ul><li>Unknown-unknowns (management reserves) </li></ul>
  133. 133. 6.4.3 Outputs for Activity Duration Est <ul><li>1 Activity duration estimates </li></ul><ul><li>2 Bases of estimates </li></ul><ul><li>3 Activity lists updates </li></ul>
  134. 134. 1 Activity Duration Estimates <ul><li>Need also to list the confidence levels of the estimates </li></ul><ul><li>Prob or SD good here </li></ul>
  135. 135. 6.5 Schedule Development 1 OPA 2 Scope Statement 3 Act List 4 Act Atts 5 Sched N/W Diags 6 Act Res Reqs 7 Res Cals 8 Act Dur Ests 9 Risk Register 1 Sked N/W Anal 2 CPM 3 Sked Compress 4 What-if Anal 5 Res Leveling 6 Critical Chain 7 PM Software 8 Applying Cals 9 Adjusting L&Ls 10 Schedule Model 1 Project Sched 2 Sched Model Data 3 Sched Baseline 4 Res Reqs (ups) 5 Act Atts (ups) 6 Proj Cals (ups) 7 Req’d Changes 8 PMP (ups)
  136. 136. Inputs from OPAs <ul><li>Project calendar may dictate days when no work can be done. </li></ul><ul><li>Shifts may be constrained </li></ul>
  137. 137. Input from Scope Statement <ul><li>PSS can contain assumptions and constraints that affect schedule development; two main types </li></ul><ul><li>1 Internally imposed dates </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Agreed-upon contract dates </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Weather restrictions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Governmental mandated compliance dates </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Start no earlier than” and “Finish no later than” most commonly used </li></ul></ul><ul><li>2 Externally imposed dates </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Stakeholders can dictate important dates </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Milestones hat connect to external projects </li></ul></ul>
  138. 138. 7 Calendars <ul><li>These show when resources and the project are available for work assignment </li></ul><ul><li>Resources have vacations, religious holidays etc </li></ul><ul><li>A labour contract may limit the days of the week a person can work </li></ul>
  139. 139. 6.4.2 T&T for Schedule Development <ul><li>1 Schedule Network Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>2 Critical Path Method </li></ul><ul><li>3 Schedule Compression </li></ul><ul><li>4 What-if Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>5 Resource Leveling </li></ul><ul><li>6 Critical Chain Method </li></ul><ul><li>7 PM Software </li></ul><ul><li>8 Applying Calendars </li></ul><ul><li>9 Adjusting Leads & Lags </li></ul><ul><li>10 Schedule Model </li></ul>
  140. 140. 1 Schedule Network Analysis <ul><li>This generates the project schedule </li></ul><ul><li>Uses the following techniques </li></ul><ul><li>Checks for loop or open ends </li></ul>
  141. 141. 2 Critical Path Method <ul><li>Uses the earliest start and finish dates and the late start and finish dates without any regard to resource limitations </li></ul><ul><li>Worries about float </li></ul><ul><li>Does a forward pass and a backward pass </li></ul><ul><li>Uses a single estimate for each activity </li></ul><ul><li>Leads to a Critical Path and a deterministic schedule </li></ul>
  142. 142. Types of Float <ul><li>Free Float – time a task can be delayed without delaying the early start date of its successor </li></ul><ul><li>Total Float - time a task can be delayed without delaying the project completion date </li></ul><ul><li>Project Float - time the project can be delayed without delaying the externally imposed project completion date (by customer, management, project manager etc.) </li></ul>
  143. 143. Passes <ul><li>To compute the likely finish time plus critical path(s) </li></ul><ul><li>Forward pass </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Start at the beginning </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Backward pass </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Start at the customer’s wanted finish date and work backwards </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Can have negative float! </li></ul>
  144. 144. <ul><li>Two ways to compress without descoping </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Crashing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fast-tracking </li></ul></ul>3 Schedule Compression
  145. 145. Crashing <ul><li>Try to compute the CP </li></ul><ul><li>Work out the cost per week to crash </li></ul><ul><li>Start with lowest </li></ul>
  146. 146. Crashing with CPM A.4 . F.6 E.7 C.2 D.2 B.6
  147. 147. Crash Data 3K 29K 20K 3 6 F 6K 52K 40K 5 7 E 6K 18K 12K 1 2 D 3.5K 9.5K 6K 1 2 C 12.5K 42.5K 30K 5 6 B 2K 14K 10K 2 4 A CC/wk Crash$ Norm$ Crash Normal
  148. 148. Crash details <ul><li>Normal time </li></ul><ul><li>Crash time </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Note; follows U-curve </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>CT is most compressed time </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Compute (CC-NC)/(NT-CT) </li></ul>
  149. 149. Crashing <ul><li>Try to compute the CP </li></ul><ul><li>Work out the cost per week to crash </li></ul><ul><li>Start with lowest </li></ul>
  150. 150. Crashing Problems <ul><li>May not be possible </li></ul><ul><li>Will INCREASE costs for sure </li></ul><ul><li>Assumes that you can take people off one task and add them to another (true in construction for example; may well NOT be true in IT!) </li></ul>
  151. 151. Fast Tracking <ul><li>Do CP tasks that were planned in series, in parallel </li></ul><ul><li>Problems: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Often forces rework </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increases risk </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Requires more communications </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>May cost more (need new people) </li></ul></ul>
  152. 152. 4 What-if Scenario Analysis <ul><li>As seen </li></ul><ul><li>Often uses Monte Carlo techniques to check out worst-case, best-case, random-case examples </li></ul>
  153. 153. 5 Resource Leveling <ul><li>Critical path may over-allocate resources </li></ul><ul><li>Necessary to “level” them </li></ul><ul><li>An option in MSP </li></ul>
  154. 154. Resource Loading and Leveling <ul><li>Resource loading: amount of individual resources an existing project schedule requires during specific time periods </li></ul><ul><li>Resource histograms show resource loading </li></ul><ul><li>Over-allocation means more resources than are available are assigned to perform work at a given time </li></ul>
  155. 155. Resource Leveling <ul><li>Resource leveling is technique for resolving resource conflicts by delaying tasks </li></ul><ul><li>Primary purpose of resource leveling: create a smoother distribution of resource usage & reduce over-allocation </li></ul>
  156. 156. Resource Histogram for Large IT Project
  157. 157. Histogram Showing an Over allocated Individual
  158. 158. Resource Leveling Example
  159. 159. 6 Critical Chain <ul><li>A better way </li></ul><ul><li>Each activity has a mean of execution time, not a constant </li></ul><ul><li>CC says, start as soon as you finish </li></ul><ul><li>Suppose A  B, A = 4 ±2, B=6±3 </li></ul><ul><li>CMP says B starts on Day 5, regardless </li></ul><ul><li>CC says, start on Day 3 if lucky </li></ul>
  160. 160. CC comments <ul><li>Idea is to take advantage of early finishes </li></ul><ul><li>What tends to happen in Anal Orgs is that the start date of each task is fixed </li></ul><ul><li>When CP task slips, whole project time slips </li></ul><ul><li>When it is early, people go fishing until the specified start date of the next task </li></ul><ul><li>CC starts ASAP and averages out under runs and overruns </li></ul>
  161. 161. 7 PM Software <ul><li>Can be used to do the preceding techniques </li></ul><ul><li>Can print out nice diagrams of the schedules </li></ul><ul><li>Can compress/expand as needed </li></ul>
  162. 162. 8 Applying Calendars <ul><li>Used to cover weather events etc. as seen </li></ul><ul><li>Can be used for scenarios such as </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Only regular hours allocated </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Two shifts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>7x24 shifts </li></ul></ul>
  163. 163. 9 Adjusting Leads & Lags <ul><li>Can be modified in the simulation to see how sensitive the schedule is to adjusting leads and lags </li></ul>
  164. 164. 10 Schedule Model <ul><li>This is the final sign-offed product that will be used for the duration of the project </li></ul><ul><li>Very important for ICC to check the effects of changes in scope, requirements </li></ul>
  165. 165. Coding Structure <ul><li>Activities should have a code (database?) so that you can sort/extract on different attributes of the activities such as </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Responsibility </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Geographic area </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Building </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Project phase </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Schedule level </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>WBS classification </li></ul></ul>
  166. 166. 6.5.3 Outputs from Schedule Development <ul><li>1 Project Schedule </li></ul><ul><li>2 Schedule Model Data </li></ul><ul><li>3 Schedule Baseline </li></ul><ul><li>4 Resources Requirements (ups) </li></ul><ul><li>5 Activity Attributes (ups) </li></ul><ul><li>6 Project Calendars (ups) </li></ul><ul><li>7 Required Changes </li></ul><ul><li>8 PMP (ups) </li></ul>
  167. 167. 1 Project Schedule <ul><li>Includes at least a start and end date for every schedule activity </li></ul><ul><li>Normally presented graphically </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Network Diagram </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bar (Gannt) charts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Milestone charts </li></ul></ul>
  168. 168. 2 Schedule Model Data <ul><li>Supporting data for all activity attributes, all schedule activities, all assumptions and constraints </li></ul><ul><li>Also may include </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Resource requirements by time period </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Alternative schedules (best, worse) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Schedule contingency reserves </li></ul></ul>
  169. 169. 3 Schedule Baseline <ul><li>This is the approved-by-management schedule for tracking purposes </li></ul>
  170. 170. 6.6 Schedule Control <ul><li>This must do 3 things </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ensure that changes are agreed on </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Determine that the schedule has changed </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Managing the changes when they occur </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Is another example of change control and if it is integrated properly, can be rolled up into it </li></ul>
  171. 171. Schedule Control 1 Sched Man Plan 2 Sched BL 3 Perf Reps 4 App’d Change Reqs 1 Prog Reporting 2 Sched CC System 3 Perf Meas’t 5 PM Software 6 Variance Anal 7 Sched Bar Charts 1 Sked model (ups) 2 Sked BL (ups) 3 Perf Meas’s 4 Req’d Changes 5 Rec’d Corrects 6 OPA (ups) 7 Act List (ups) 8 PMP (ups) 9 Act Atts (ups)
  172. 172. 6.5.1 Inputs to Schedule Control <ul><li>1 Schedule Management Plan </li></ul><ul><li>2 Schedule Baseline </li></ul><ul><li>3 Performance Reports </li></ul><ul><li>4 Approved Change Requests </li></ul>
  173. 173. 3 Performance Reports <ul><li>These flow out of communications </li></ul><ul><li>Indicate when we are falling behind and signal the need for change </li></ul>
  174. 174. 4 Approved Change Requests <ul><li>Once an item has been baselined, it is put under CCM </li></ul><ul><li>Should be a form which is filled out and this, when approved by the CCB, is put into the Schedule Control process </li></ul>
  175. 175. 6.5.2 T&T for Schedule Control <ul><li>1 Progress Reporting </li></ul><ul><li>2 Schedule CC System </li></ul><ul><li>3 Performance Measurement </li></ul><ul><li>5 PM Software </li></ul><ul><li>6 Variance Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>7 Schedule Bar Charts </li></ul>
  176. 176. 1 Progress Reporting <ul><li>Records actual start and finish dates (as opposed to planned) </li></ul><ul><li>Has all EV measurements </li></ul><ul><li>Should be in an org-wide template form </li></ul>
  177. 177. 2 Schedule Change Control System <ul><li>Formal procedure by which we do the changes </li></ul><ul><li>See unit 4. </li></ul><ul><li>Is a very important case of CCM </li></ul><ul><li>Is isolated here to stress its importance </li></ul><ul><li>Necessary approvals here important </li></ul>
  178. 178. 3 Performance Management <ul><li>Need to understand the metrics of PM and assess if change is needed immediately or can it wait? </li></ul><ul><li>If the activity is on the CP, do it now </li></ul><ul><li>If off the CP, could wait a bit </li></ul>
  179. 179. 4 PM Software <ul><li>Lets us know when corrective action is necessary </li></ul><ul><li>Could be a push technology (here be dragons!) </li></ul>
  180. 180. 5 Variance Analysis <ul><li>Critical for the EV portion of time </li></ul><ul><li>Float is key here </li></ul><ul><li>Need to sort sub-critical paths in terms of increasing float </li></ul>
  181. 181. 6 Schedule Comparison Bar Charts <ul><li>Also called “double Gantting” </li></ul><ul><li>Two bars; one the actuals, one the planned. Is another way to track progress. Note the fallacy compared with EVM </li></ul>
  182. 182. 6.5.3 Outputs from Schedule Control <ul><li>1 Schedule Model (ups) </li></ul><ul><li>2 Schedule Baseline (ups) </li></ul><ul><li>3 Performance Measurements </li></ul><ul><li>4 Required Changes </li></ul><ul><li>5 Required Corrects </li></ul><ul><li>6 OPA (ups) </li></ul><ul><li>7 Activity List (ups) </li></ul><ul><li>8 PMP (ups) </li></ul><ul><li>9 Activity Attributes (ups) </li></ul>
  183. 183. 1 Schedule Model Updates <ul><li>Any modification to the schedule </li></ul><ul><li>Must notify stakeholders </li></ul><ul><li>May trigger updates to other parts of the PMP </li></ul>
  184. 184. Schedule Baseline Revisions <ul><li>These are changes to the project’s start and finish date </li></ul><ul><li>Are major </li></ul><ul><li>May require rebaselining (a Baaaad thing) </li></ul><ul><li>Rebaselining is a Last Resort </li></ul>
  185. 185. 5 Corrective Action <ul><li>Anything done to bring future performance in line with the planned estimates </li></ul><ul><li>Often involves expediting </li></ul><ul><li>Need to do a root cause analysis to avoid future deviations </li></ul>
  186. 186. 6 OPA Updates (Lessons Learned) <ul><li>REALLY important </li></ul><ul><li>“Those who ignore the failure lessons of history are doomed to repeat them” G. Santayana </li></ul>
  187. 187. Chapter Six: Time Management <ul><li>2000 Edition </li></ul><ul><li>6.1 Activity Definition </li></ul><ul><li>6.2 Activity Sequencing </li></ul><ul><li>6.3 Activity Duration Estimating </li></ul><ul><li>6.4 Schedule Development </li></ul><ul><li>6.5 Schedule Control </li></ul><ul><li>Third Edition </li></ul><ul><li>6.1 Activity Definition </li></ul><ul><li>6.2 Activity Sequencing </li></ul><ul><li>6.3 Activity Resource Estimating </li></ul><ul><li>6.4 Activity Duration Estimating </li></ul><ul><li>6.5 Schedule Development </li></ul><ul><li>6.6 Schedule Control </li></ul>
  188. 188. Case Study: Panama Canal (french) <ul><li>Experts recommended </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A sea-level canal (like Suez) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reducing TL from 12 to 8 years </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reducing cost from $240M to $169M </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reducing the contingency from 25% to 10% (ignored cost of capital, cost of purchasing Panamanian railroad, administrative costs) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Estimators doubled the anticipated excavation volume by 100% (while doing the cost reduction) </li></ul></ul>
  189. 189. De Lesseps goes to Panama <ul><li>Spent 1 week there </li></ul><ul><li>Reduced the cost estimate to $132M </li></ul><ul><li>Discounted the deadly climate as “an invention of adversaries” </li></ul>
  190. 190. The Result: <ul><li>20,000 Frenchmen died </li></ul><ul><li>Spent $287M for little work </li></ul><ul><li>Estimates were based on what they could SELL to the investors, not the actual cost </li></ul><ul><li>Philosophy: “get her started” and we’ll figure out something later </li></ul><ul><li>Big Dig! </li></ul>
  191. 191. WBS Structures the Project Network Project Project Project Project Project Sub A11 Sub A11 Sub A11 Sub A11 Sub A11 Sub A11 Sub A11 Sub A11 Sub A11 Sub A11 Sub A11 Sub A11 Sub A11