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Module 1 - Introduction 1 PROJECT MANAGEMENT

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  • Classical definition of success is on time, budget, and does what the client expected it to do. However, must add to this: A happy team. The key stakeholder is your (the students’) team. Project management is rules, structure, discipline. May turn people off. Do not over do it. Similarly, be careful about over managing the contractor (part of your team). They must make their profit. A happy client. The client must be involved in the process (the team can’t just disappear and turn up six months later with the completed project). That is why we have phases, which provide milestones, intermediate deliverables, progress reports, reviews, etc. that the client must be involved in. Your upper level management (ULM) must also be happy: they also must be involved in the process. At your (PM) level, you will be communicating mostly with the client PM level of management. However, your ULM will be communicating with the client’s ULM, and you do not wish hassles coming down the hierarchy. (Case of the client complaining to his ULM, who goes to your ULM, who does not know about the project.)
  • This is the first introduction to how we approach the management of projects. This is from the PMBOK: Every project can be divided into 4 major phases: Concept where we document the original idea and get funding for the next phase. Planning where we detail the plan and get approval for the remainder. Execution (we do the work)/Control(we make sure everything follows the plan, react to problems, report progress) Closing where we document what went right and wrong, and close up. Note the line graph (and percentages) of effort expended. This is exactly the shape of the cost flow in an IT project, where 85-95% of the costs are people costs.
  • Planning is hierarchical: big things (steps), break down to smaller things (tasks) to even smaller if necessary (activities), etc.
  • Larger project Project Leader: highest level person on contractor (project) side Project Leader: highest level person on contractor (project) side Project Sponsor: highest level person on client side
  • Emphasize that planning is iterative. Time has passed since the preliminary plan was written. More knowledge exists. The graph demonstrated how estimating inaccuracy range goes down. Underestimating range (negative numbers) always seems to be greater. Why do we rarely overestimate? Too optimistic.
  • The third knowledge area Timing: PM lecture: 13:00-14:00 MSProject Lesson 1: 14:00-16:00
  • xx
  • Next knowledge area (of 9)
  • Estimating is an iterative process. The first estimate is made when you write the preliminary project plan It is 50% to 100% inaccurate at that point. As you re-plan, you should be only 25-50% off. By the time the final plan is written, it should only be 10% off. 3 methods of estimating: 1. Professional Judgment 2. History 3. Formula Professional Judgment: Advantages : a) fast; b) can be extremely accurate if person is an expert Disadvantages : a) expert must be expert in that particular subject; b) difficult to find experts; c) estimate given is for how long it would take for that expert to do it (not someone else) Does not work to estimate for someone else!
  • 2. History - Need to keep track of history. - Write down how long each task took, and who did it. - Therefore, you need to break up the project into into tasks that are generally repeated and easily compared. 3. Formula - There are basically two factors that affect the duration of a task 1) the complexity of the task 2) the productivity of the person performing it
  • IN REALITY - PROFESSIONAL JUDGEMENT IS BEST 90% of the time, this is what is used
  • You should first take a good look at the time estimates before publishing them. Tools that help: Ratios : works on the fact the the same people in the same organization tend to develop similar projects. Projects themselves change but the rations of major phases or pieces is pretty constant. Do not use ratios like this: estimate one item, then extrapolate all the rest. Use instead: estimate all the items, compare to past ratios; examine if far out.
  • Estimating for a project may have given you “direct time” (the number of person days). Need Duration to schedule. Dur = …e.g., 10 person days (pd) of effort may take only 5 calendar days with 2 people doing it. Can’t always divide: if it takes 10 days for one programmer to write a program, 2 may take…11 days! This is due to the communication, management, dividing the work, etc. And how long it takes for a person takes into account all the other factors.
  • PERT = P rogram E valuation and R eview T echnique (invented by US Navy, 1950’s, for Polaris missile project, which had 100,000 activities.) Table: A has no precedent, takes 7d duration. B has A as precedent, i.e., can not start before A is finished, etc.
  • Each arrow represents a task. Starting and ending points are called “nodes” and are numbered. The nodes may be milestones (start or end of something major). A sequence of events (A-B. C-D, E-F-G) is called a path. PERT shows you what activities, or paths are occurring simultaneously. In this case A-B can be same time as C-D, and as E-F-G. Original PERT had only above information. In 1957 DuPont suggested putting durations with the PERT. With Dur, can calculate the critical path. The CP is the path that has the longest total duration. CP tells us minimum length of project, as well as the Critical Tasks. If a Critical Tasks takes longer than planned, it will delay the project. Critical path here is C-D (15 days) therefore C &D are critical events Activities not on the critical path have “float” or “slack” (a period of time that these activities can slip and still not affect the delivery date) Shortest path is A-B (10 days). This path has 15-10=5 days of slack. Path E-F-G (13 days) has 2 days of slack. Careful: CP does not stay put. What of E takes 7 days? This path is now critical. Also, if E takes 6 days, you have 2 CP’s, (too many CP’s is difficult to control).
  • Time bar graph that everyone is familiar with. Joke: what does Gantt stand for? Invent something: Going Along with no Tracking or Training (pretty bad). ANS: guy’s name. See example next slide.
  • Important dates: Early start (ES) Early finish (EF) Late start (LS) Late finish (LF) Scheduled start (SS) Scheduled finish (SF) Demo: item 5, Order hardware, has only Successor item 9, Implement as system. 5 has 3 months of slack, so it can be ordered as late as (end of) March before impacting CP. Therefore its ES is Jan, LS is Mar, EF is Aug LF is Nov. The PM may schedule it to start Feb to arrive Oct, which would then be the SS and SF.
  • One of the most important reasons we have a schedule is to know when the milestones occur: - good opportunity to meet & interact with people involved - not too close: usually have a MS meeting, or need to work a bit harder to meet it. - not too far apart because the milestone meeting is a good occasion to see if something is amiss.
  • Other items that come out of the Gantt. Conclusion: the Gantt is the PM’s most important tool. He/she will be living and breathing Gantts because it can show all time dependencies.
  • Third knowledge area. Resources are discussed here because 90% of the cost of a professional project (such as an IT project) is resource cost, in other words, people cost.
  • Availability is first concern Assign tasks to individuals whose skill level suits the task - do not assign Mickey-mouse tasks to expert - boring - do not assign complex tasks to junior - overwhelming Ask if they wish to do it. Critical task…A reliable person is not necessarily the fastest: it is the one who will do his best to meet the deadline Assign similar tasks to the same person - this will reduce learning time and to minimize people’s interactions Availability: just because someone says ‘I’ll be avail July 1st when my present project is slated to finish - projects have been known to be late. Sometimes you have no choice; you only get the available people.
  • Best way to see who is doing what is Resource histogram aligned with Gantt. MS Project can do). Do not explain the overload problem yet…go to next slide, then come back. When back here: Overload is caused by TL working on Architecture as well as prototype in June and July. Ask students for solutions, keeping in mind the balance of Good, Fast, Cheap: 1. Do both half time. Fast. May not be possible 2. Buy another resource: Fast; not Cheap. (look internally before looking externally). Hiring new person sometimes defeats “fast” because you have to train them 3. Do overtime. Fast, not Cheap, not Good 4. Reschedule Architecture to start after Prototype. Delays project by 3 mos. 5. Stop work on prototype in June, do the Architecture, resume Prot. Seems best solution, only delays by 1 month.
  • Best way to see who is doing what is Resource histogram aligned with Gantt. MS Project can do). Do not explain the overload problem yet…go to next slide, then come back. When back here: Overload is caused by TL working on Architecture as well as prototype in June and July. Ask students for solutions, keeping in mind the balance of Good, Fast, Cheap: 1. Do both half time. Fast. May not be possible 2. Buy another resource: Fast; not Cheap. (look internally before looking externally). Hiring new person sometimes defeats “fast” because you have to train them 3. Do overtime. Fast, not Cheap, not Good 4. Reschedule Architecture to start after Prototype. Delays project by 3 mos. 5. Stop work on prototype in June, do the Architecture, resume Prot. Seems best solution, only delays by 1 month.
  • Estimating Cost, as Time, is at WP (Work package) level Fixed Costs: Material, hardware, capital equipment tools, travel & living, etc.
  • The WBS helps you organize cost entry and cost roll up. (Total Cost only). Cost Account here is just a user defined text field.
  • Typical cumulative cost graphs. MS Project can do this only for Resource Costs, but can easily export all costs (resource + fixed) to Excel to produce such a graph.
  • When was the estimate done? Expected error ranges. Be sure your management is aware.
  • Next knowledge area
  • Most projects would be on time and on budget if nothing went wrong. Risk is not an item that is certain to occur. Example of opportunity: Manufacturer considers building new factory to market a new product. Opportunity for profit; risk if it does not sell. As opposed to the other knowledge areas, risk mgmt is a science and an art. With an ‘art’ not everything is precise.
  • 1. Identification Write down list of what can hit the project. “event triggers” warn you something will happen, risk is about to occur. 2. Quantification We will evaluate both probability and impact to levels of Low, Medium, High Tabulate the risks based on these levels in order to see which are the 10-15 ‘worst’. Do this because you cannot do Response to more than 10-15 items. 3. Risk Response Strategy: Can do something immediately to mitigate the risk. Can wait until the risk is imminent Prepare a specific action to do when the risk occurs: contingency plan. e.g. One strategy to avoid traffic jam due to accident on the way to work. Put someone on a busy street corner to tell you if there is an accident. This is how you will address the risk. 4. Risk Control Risk mgmt is not just planning, it must be on-going. Also, must fight the fires = reacting to the entirely unanticipated.
  • Starting with Step 1: Done during preliminary planning stages . How do you know what will hit you? You can brainstorm, or there is a better method (that we will see). To brainstorm: use these questions to think of risk items. Comes from industry.
  • First you take your risk list items and rank them according to their likelihood of occurrence. Must establish a criteria for High/Medium/Low. 66%,33% is just one set of numbers. This changes from project to project. See the ‘art’ components - not everything is precise.
  • Now, you take your risk list items (already ranked for probability) and rank them again according to how much damage they would incur. They can impact the Schedule, Cost or Quality. Look at the critical path and how this risk delays the project before you assign the schedule impact ranking. Quality depends on the project: e.g., if you are building the space shuttle (life critical systems), the quality impact will be the highest level. As a manager, you must remember that you cannot look at all risks (there are hundreds!) … if you do, you will be doing only risk management, not Project Management, so must find the N worst risks.
  • Take the ranked risk list items and fit them into the risk table. The red and orange are your worst risks; if you can address more include the yellow. You can also determine the overall project risk using this method. If many or most of your risks are Red/Orange, you have a High risk project. Total project risk classification for this example (L/M/H): High
  • Step 3: In the order of worst to less risks: Examples: Swap: add more resources to bring it in earlier. Different: build in-house instead of contract to reduce cost Parallel: Intel will have at least 2 separate contractors or manufacturing assemblies for a new chip. (Did you see Contact?)
  • Here is one of the the major mistakes people make. They estimate ignoring the risks. (The second major mistake is that they have not anticipated risks and the risks kill the project.) Typically estimates should be given as a range and a confidence level. MITEL story. Confidence level is probabilistic: +- 1 SD is 68% +- 2 SD is 95, 3SD is 99. Risk lets you calculate expected ranges. Let the listener react. What about items that you have no clue of happening? Estimates are ‘known knowns’ You know the risk; you know it will happen Risks are ‘known unknowns’ You know the risk; you do not know if it will happen What about ‘unknown unknowns? Fire, flood etc. Set aside management reserve
  • So the monitoring methods give you progress information. What do you do with this information? Baseline: photocopy of all project info at a point. Progress report meaningless without comparison of where we should be. Recall 3 iterations of plan: Concept (+75 to -25% error range). Too inaccurate to take baseline. Proposal (+25 to -10% error range). Best take baseline. After design (+10 to -10% error range). Too late to take baseline.Major scope change: 25-33% changed
  • So the monitoring methods give you progress information. What do you do with this information? Baseline: photocopy of all project info at a point. Progress report meaningless without comparison of where we should be. Recall 3 iterations of plan: Concept (+75 to -25% error range). Too inaccurate to take baseline. Proposal (+25 to -10% error range). Best take baseline. After design (+10 to -10% error range). Too late to take baseline.Major scope change: 25-33% changed
  • Simplest and best progress report. Note how easily it is seen exactly what happened on the project: Task 3 started and finished on time. (actual lines up with baseline) Task 4 started a week late, took a few days less than planned and is finished. Etc.
  • Same as above except the Cost Table is shown to report forecast cost vs baseline. Another view can be the Work Table, which could be used to report forecast work. Will see these and other MS Project reports.
  • Masters in PM can be had from U of Quebec, Hull PM courses in U of Ottawa, PWGSC Institute, DND Encouraged to join PMI, get PMP
  • PMI.org has many PM seminars, conferences, books, and PMBOK NASA has a lot of PM documents and stories. SEI has software PM material SPC is Canada's equivalent of SEI, again for software development DOD and Pentagon has all of the US military specs for project development. DND
  • ‘No’ is the most important word in the PM’s vocabulary. Need to limit changes, limit digression, etc. PM must address the the instant it arises. PM is not loved. He/she is a ‘heavy’, rules, standards, says ‘no’ to a lot of things. Is it the love of your people that you want or their loyalty and respect?
  • Transcript

    • 1. PROJECT MANAGEMENT Presented by: John Rakos, MSc, PMP President, John J. Rakos & Associates Consultants Ltd. John J. Rakos is available to teach or consult in any topic presented in this seminar.
    • 2. INTRODUCTION
      • Reference sources
      • A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (2003). The Project Management Institute. http://www.pmi.org
      • Rakos, John J. et al, A Practical Guide to Project Management Documentation , Wiley, 2004
      • Kerzner, Harold. Project Management: A Systems Approach to Planning, Scheduling and Controlling . 6 th ed. John Wiley & Sons, 1998.
      • Rakos, John J. Software Project Management for Small to Medium Sized Projects. Prentice-Hall, 1990.
    • 3. INTRODUCTION
      • The Value of Project Management
          • Allows for excellent organization and tracking
          • Better control and use of resources
          • Reduces complexity of inter-related tasks
          • Allows measurement of outcome versus plans
          • Early identification of problems and quick correction
    • 4. INTRODUCTION
      • PMBOK TM Knowledge Areas
      • Based on the Project Management Institute’s Project Management Body of Knowledge: PMBOK 1
      • Nine knowledge areas:
        • This webinar:
      • Scope, Time, Cost, Risk, Integration
      • -- Next webinar:
      • Quality, Procurement, Communications, Human Resources, Integration
    • 5. INTRODUCTION
      • PMP Certification
      • Internationally accepted accreditation
      • Get certification
      • 3 (5 without degree) years experience
      • 35 hours training
      • 4 hour, 200 questions, multiple choice exam!
      • Have to be re-certified every 3 years
      • 60 PDUs
          • Attending a conference
          • Attending course
          • PMI membership
          • Publications
          • PM work
    • 6. INTRODUCTION
        • What is a Project?
      • A project is a temporary endeavor undertaken to create a unique product or service
      • - A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK™), Project Management Institute, 2003
          • One time
          • Limited funds/time
          • Specific resources utilized
          • Performed by people - Single or multi-person team
          • Planned, controlled
          • Specific Deliverables
    • 7. INTRODUCTION
      • The Triple Constraint of Projects
      • On Time, Budget, Quality = Required Scope
      Time Cost Quality
      • Integration
      • Trade – Off’s
    • 8. Project Life Cycle INTRODUCTION 5% 20% 60% 15% Concept Planning Execution/Control Closing Percentages and graph refer to the amount of effort (people) In IT projects = 90-95% of cost! Definition | Analysis |Design|Build|Test|Accept| Implement| Operation
    • 9.
      • Write a Plan Containing
      • 1. Steps required to accomplish the project objectives
      • 2. Tasks needed to be done at each step (using Work Breakdown Structures)
      • 3. Estimate of how much effort each task requires
      • 4. The resources required for each task
      • 5. (Given 3. and 4.) Calculation of how long each task/step will take
      • 6. (Given 4. and 5.) Calculation of task, step and project costs
      • 7. The inter-dependencies of tasks
      • 8. The schedule for each task and the whole project (Milstones, Deliverables, payments )
      Project Planning
    • 10.
      • Stakeholders
      Project Planning: set expectations of Stakeholders Project Sponsor Project Leader Project Manager Finance Procure- ment Systems Engineering Support Sales Maintenance IM/ IT Users Contractors
    • 11. Project Planning: Time and Cost Estimate
      • Iterative
      • Accuracy
        • Estimates become more accurate
      Preliminary Plan Final Plan 0 +25% - 75% +15 -50 +10 -25 Initiation Planning Execution Closing Definition Analysis Design Proposal Plan Revised Plan
    • 12. Project Management Module 2: Scope Management
    • 13. Project Scope Planning
      • Scope Management
      • Ensuring that the project includes all the work required, only the work required.
      • Dividing the work into major pieces, then subdividing into smaller, more manageable pieces.
    • 14. Work Breakdown Structure - Formats
      • 1. Organization Chart Method
      0. Title 1. Major Phase 1 1.1 Section 1 of Phase 1 2. Major Phase 2 3. Major Phase 3 1.2 Section 2 of Phase 1 1.3 Section 3 of Phase 1
    • 15.
      • 2. Outline Method
      • 0. TITLE
      • 1. MAJOR PHASE 1
      • 1.1 S1 OF PHASE1
      • 1.2 S2 OF PHASE1
      • 1.3 S3 OF PHASE1
      • 2. MAJOR PHASE 2
      • ...
      • etc.
      Work Breakdown Structure - Formats
    • 16. WBS - Typical Tasks Detailed WBS Example for procuring an Equipment System
    • 17.
      • Summary (Top Level) WBS
      Work Breakdown Structure Summary and Detail tasks, or Parent and Child tasks (Work Package)
    • 18.
      • Using the Work Breakdown Structure
      • 1. Estimate and schedule the work (Durations, precedences on WBS)
      • 2. Organize and schedule resources (resource allocated WBS)
      • 3. Assign responsibilities – (Resource ramp-up, resource allocated WBS)
      • 4. Estimate and allocate costs and budgets (costed WBS)
      • 5. Add up costs to different levels
        • Task
        • Levels on the WBS (phase, account/contract)
        • Cost account
        • Total project
      • 6. Get resource commitments
      • 7. Schedule start <--> end dates
      • 8. Track expenditures, schedules and performance
      Work Breakdown Structure
    • 19. Project Management Module 3: Project Time Planning
    • 20. Project Time Planning
      • Estimating Effort: 3 Methods
      • 1. Professional Judgment
        • “ Expert” picks a number (out of the air!)
        • Requires an expert
        • Requires experience
        • Good memory
        • May ignore people
        • VERY RELIABLE FOR THEMSELVES
    • 21.
          • Estimating Efforts (cont’d)
      • 2. History
        • Look at tables of past actuals on major tasks
        • Interpolate
        • Requires professional judgment
        • Requires good history (which changes!)
      • 3. Formula
      • 3.1 Variables
        • Determine major variable factors (task, person)
        • Using measurement determine formula of factors
        • Interview and plug into formula
      Project Time Planning
    • 22.
      • Estimating Efforts (cont’d)
      • 3.2 Function Points
        • Determine smallest pieces (function points) of project.
        • Using measurement establish time for each one.
        • For new project, break into function points; add up times, then multiply for worker productivity.
      • (Possibly: Junior x 2, Average x 1, Senior x 0.5)
      • FORMULA IS BEST (IN THEORY).
      • IN REALITY,____________ BEST.
      Project Time Planning
    • 23. Estimating – use of History
      • Ratios for Systems project
      • SYSTEMS ACTIVITIES DUR EFFORT
      • SYSTEM SPECIFICATIONS 11-15% 6-10%
      • SYSTEM DESIGN 8-12% 6-10%
      • SOFTWARE REQUREMENTS 2-4% 3-5%
      • SOFTWARE PRELIMINARY DESIGN 5-7% 4-6%
      • SOFTWARE DETAILED DESIGN 8-11% 9-12%
      • CODE AND UNIT TEST 20-28% 24-32%
      • SOFTWARE INTEGRATION & TEST 10-14% 11-15%
      • SOFTWARE QUALIFICATION 5-7% 2-4%
      • SYTEM INTEGRATION & QUAL. 8-12% 8-12%
      • WARRANTY AND SUPPORT N/A 7-10%
      MAKE YOUR OWN BASED ON THE MAJOR PHASES/PIECES!
    • 24. If Estimate was Effort, must convert it to Duration Duration = Effort/Resources (sometimes) Taking into account : Resource availability Desire Skill Productivity Scheduling
    • 25. Scheduling: Requires Duration and Precedents
      • Two Graphical tools for Scheduling:
      • 1. PERT Chart
      • Plan (from WBS)
      • Task Precedent Duration
      • A - 7d
      • B A 3d
      • C - 10d
      • D C 5d
      • E - 4d
      • F E 6d
      • G F 3d
    • 26.
      • Ordering the Activities: PERT Chart
      • Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM)
      Scheduling
    • 27. Scheduling - Gantt Chart
      • Order of building the Gantt Chart:
          • Work Breakdown
          • Estimates (duration)
          • Dependencies
          • Resource use
      • Gantt shows:
          • Critical Path
          • Non Critical Path(s)
          • Early Start/Finish
          • Late Start/Finish
          • Slack
    • 28. Scheduling - Gantt Chart
    • 29.
      • Gantt (Schedule) Drives
      • 1. Milestones
          • Clear, concrete, binary events implying progress
          • For example: Review (with approval), Sign off of a deliverable, Funds approved
          • Shown as 0 length task
        • Try for even frequency
          • Not too close
          • Not more than 2 - 3 months apart
        • Major Point to communicate with
          • Client
          • Outside world
          • Management
      Scheduling - Gantt Chart
    • 30.
      • Gantt (Schedule) Drives
      • Training
      • Meetings
      • Reviews
      • Reports
      • Site preparation
      • Delivery dates (date to order) for external items
      • Payment
      Scheduling - Gantt Chart
    • 31. Project Management Module 4: Resource Assignment and Cost Planning
    • 32.
      • Availability
      • Skills
          • More experienced people
          • Less experienced people
      • Desire
      • Similar tasks to one person to use learning curve
      • Assign critical tasks to most reliable people
      • Tasks that need interaction or are similar
          • Same person
          • Two who communicate
      • Personality and team communication does matter
      • and again, Availability
      Assigning Resources
    • 33. Resource Loading and Optimizing
      • Gantt with Resource Histogram
    • 34. Resource leveling - possible rescheduling
      • Gantt with Resource Histogram
      Manual resource leveling: fast vs good vs cheap Automatic resource leveling: use only as ‘suggestion’
    • 35. Cost Estimating
      • Similar to Time Estimating (usually done by the same person/group that does the Time Estimates)
      • Calculation of Cost for each WP: Example:
      • If estimate was duration 10 days
      • Assign human resources 2 people
      • Need Effort = Duration x Resources E=2x10=20pd
      • e.g., Resource Cost (RC) = Effort x Rate(includes overhead)
      • RC=20x$1,000=$20,000
      • (Possible) Plus Fixed Cost (FC)
      • e.g., FC = $5,000
      • Total cost (TC) = Resource cost + Fixed Cost
      • TC= 20,000 + 5,000 = 25,000
    • 36. Costed WBS Use Software to roll costs up the WBS
    • 37. Cost Ramp-Up Use Software to report cash flow
    • 38. Cost - Sanity checks Cost Estimate Error Range – same as Time Estimate Indicative PPA Init Plan Budget EPA Final Plan Definitive PDR Design PPA - Preliminary Project Approval EPA - Effective PDR - Preliminary Design Review 0 +75% -25% 25 -10 10 -8
    • 39. Project Management Module 5: Risk Management
    • 40. Risk Management
      • Planning and Control Processes
      • Risk: anything not in the project plan that may occur and cause your project to be late, cost more or compromise its quality/performance.
      • Risk is an opportunity as well as a threat:
      • “ You don’t put power brakes on a car to slow it down - you do so to allow it to go faster.”
              • -Mark Davies, KPMG
      • We will concentrate on the threat.
    • 41. Four Steps of Risk Management
      • 1. Identification
        • Anticipate the risk
        • List the risks, event triggers, symptoms
      • 2. Analysis
        • Evaluate probability, impact
        • Qualitative vs Quantitative
      • 3. Risk Response
        • Strategy Development to mitigate the risk:
          • Eliminate the risk or reduce impact
          • Contingency planning
      • 4. Risk Control
        • Monitor
        • Update lists, strategies
        • Action the contingency plan
        • Fight the fires
      Which is most important??
    • 42. Step 1: Risk Identification
      • Anticipate the Risk
      • Risk Checklist at Preliminary Planning Time (Risk Taxonomy)
          • Are we proposing the right solution?
          • Any risk in technical components?
          • Performance expectations reasonable?
          • Is the hardware standard?
          • How much experience do we have with it?
          • Is the operating software standard? Well documented?
          • How much experience do we have with it?
          • Is the development method standard? Well documented?
          • How much experience do we have with it?
          • Any component availability risks?
    • 43. Step 1: Risk Identification
      • Risk Checklist at Preliminary Planning Time (Risk Taxonomy)
      • (cont’d)
          • Does failure of this application affect the customer’s business?
          • Is the project over 6 months? 12 months? 24 months?
          • Does it need over 5 people?
          • Are we dependent on third party resources? Internal? External?
          • Who is the project manager?
          • Who is the project leader/architect?
          • Are the resources available when needed?
          • Who is the client?
          • Have we worked with this client? How is our relationship?
          • Is client available when needed?
    • 44. Step 1: Risk Identification: Inputs
      • Risk Checklists, The WBS, Environment:
      PROJECT/ PM ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL NATURAL ENVIRONMENTS CORPORATE PROGRAMS CORPORATE POLICY AND CULTURE TECHNOLOGY SENIOR MANAGEMENT POLITICAL REGULATORY AND LEGAL HUMAN FACTORS HEALTH & SAFETY History of past Similar Projects
    • 45. Step 2: Risk Analysis
      • Evaluate Probability and Impact into three levels: Low, Medium, High :
      • Probability Criteria:
      Probability Rank Description High Medium Low Greater than 66% probability of occurring 34 to 65% probability of occurring Less than 33% probability of occurring
    • 46. Step 2: Risk Analysis
      • Impact Criteria:
      Determine a combined impact level based on which constraint is most affected. Impact Rank Description High Medium Low Could add more than 25% to the project budget Could add between 10 and 25% to the project budget Could add less than 10% to the project budget High Medium Low Schedule Cost Quality Could add over 25% delay to the completion of the project Could add over 10% delay to the completion of the project Could add less than 10% delay to the completion of the project, or delays a non critical deliverable
    • 47. Step 2: Risk Analysis Draw a Risk Table to Summarize Wonderful Management Tool/Report Prob. Impact High Medium Low High Medium Low 3. Lack of skilled staff, organization slow to hire adequate staff; may delay implementation. 2. Time estimate and funds inadequate for the scope of this project; may be late and over budget. 1. Lack of commitment. Headquarters may have to assume more responsibility; will result in project delay, cost overruns. 6. Cannot get office space for staff; may cause communication problems, delaying the execution phase. 5. Expecting major scope changes from clients; may cause delay and cost escalation. 4. Not enough time spent planning, lack of understanding of problem; may take longer/ cost more than anticipated.
    • 48. Step 3: Risk Response
      • Strategy Development:
      • Reduce the Probability and/or Impact of the Risk
      • Risk Mitigation: Reducing the probability and/or impact
      • Take immediate action . Can be risk avoidance (if eliminated) or risk reduction (still there, but probability or impact is reduced).
      • Contingency Plans
      • Take action only when the risk is imminent or has occurred
      • Or Acceptance (do nothing), depends on Risk Tolerance
    • 49. Risk as a Monetary Value
      • Tempering the Estimate
      • Estimate range is
        • ESTIMATE ESTIMATE + RISK
        • Try to work within the range, depending on how crucial the accuracy has to be.
      • If you can get several estimates
        • Use the Standard Deviations to give you confidence levels:
          • Expected estimate +/- 1 SD gives you 68% confidence
          • Expected estimate +/- 2 SD gives you 95% confidence
          • Expected estimate +/- 3 SD gives you 99% confidence
    • 50. Project Management Module 6: Scope/ Time/ Cost Control
    • 51. Project Control – Scope Control
      • Scope Change Control
      • Formal change control
      • Evaluate cost/time impact
        • Renegotiate, set expectations
        • Implement or defer to next release
      • Configuration Management
      • Keep track of what changes were made to which modules
      • Versioning
      • Interoperability of modules
    • 52. Project Control – Schedule and Cost
      • Step 1 - Take a baseline.
      • Baseline plan: a copy of the plan (WBS with all dates, assignments, costs).
      • Used to report progress against the baseline.
      • Taken at a mutually agreed upon planning point:
          • Proposal or Analysis completion
          • +25% to -10% stage
      • Baseline is (theoretically) not alterable
      • Unless major scope change occurs.
    • 53. Project Control – Reporting Schedule using a Tracking Gantt
      • Double Gantt: Shows Project Schedule Progress vs baseline
    • 54. Project Control – Cost Control/Reporting
      • Financial Report vs Baseline
    • 55. Project Management Module 7: Conclusions
    • 56. Resources Available
      • To help you Manage your Projects
      • Training & Learning
        • Universities
          • Project Management courses
          • Major/Masters in Project
          • Others – public
      • Project Management Institute (PMI)
          • PMP Certification courses
          • PMI conferences
          • 250,000 members worldwide
      • Your own Subject Matter Experts
    • 57. Resources Available
      • To help you Manage your Projects
      • Training & Learning
        • Internet
          • PMI.org
          • Many sites: search on Project Management
          • NASA
          • Software Engineering Institute
          • Software Productivity Center
          • DOD/Pentagon
      • Project Management Software (WBS, Schedule, Cost, Resource usage, Multiple project roll-up, Internet reporting,...)
        • Microsoft Project
        • Primavera
        • Open source: OpenProj
      • John J. Rakos is available to teach or consult in any topic presented in this seminar.
    • 58. Final Details
      • Can you be a good project manager?
      • Ask yourself:
      • Can I say 'NO'?
        • Can I attack problems as soon as/even before they arise?
      • Can I live unloved?
      If you do your job well, people will wonder what you do!