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  • Source: The Rapidly Changing Face of Computing (http://www5.compaq.com/rcfoc/index.html) And now: The Harrow Technology Report (http://www.TheHarrowGroup.com/)
  • Prototype w/full Windows for 2002
  • Full motion video
  • Taking a picture of him taking a picture
  • Cell?
  • GSM enabled PDA (wireless)
  • Wireless
  • Always on Web
  • Microsoft, at the 3GSM conference, offers up their answer, prototypes of cell phone/PDA combos codenamed "Stinger," which will bring some PocketPC features to the phone. Initially for GSM's "GPRS" higher data rate networks (100 to 150 kilobytes/second), but with later versions showing up to address the U.S. CDMA market, the initial phones will sport a readable(!), 208x240 color screen! Stinger phones will synchronize with Outlook's contact and calendar information, and its Mobile Internet Explorer will support WAP, "normal" HTML Web browsing, and even XML. Interestingly, the browser will also support typical Web encryption technologies, such as SSL, to support Mcommerce (Mobile Ecommerce).
  • Download show guide to Palm Pilot
  • Digital camera
  • One PC
  • Cell phone/video conferencing device/general data terminal/Web browser
  • Boeing's forthcoming Connexion service
  • Bluetooth chooses cell phone as gateway
  • working Ericsson Bluetooth phone and headset
  • http://www.anoto.com/ wireless pen transmits anything written either directly to a PC or to PDAs (personal digital assistants) and cell phones
  • Voice recognition cell phone w/ear bud
  • http://dtcproducts.com/products.html Dieceland Technologies - $10 for 60 minutes
  • hardware and software from Teletype GPS - http://www.teletype.com/).
  • Future is fiber optics to the home
  • http://physicsweb.org/article/world/14/2/8 Nanotechnology generally refers to working with things sized between 1 and 100 billionths of a meter. Lucent is trying to shrink popular MEMS switches to the nanotechnology range. Agilent is using miniature liquid bubbles to act as movable mirrors to redirect light waves, and Corning is channeling light beams through synthetic liquid crystals.
  • 2001: 100 drives of 100GB each = 10TB Made in Wichita!
  • Merced is now Itanium
  • Codenames will be replaced with trademarked names
  • When today’s high school seniors graduate from college
  • World’s fastest computer at Lawrence Livermore Labs – ASCI White IBM: 7226 Gflops, 12288 Gflops peak #1 on top500.org
  • 24 processor (16x300Mhz + 8x250Mhz) SGI Origin 2000 @ WSU About 12 Gflops, 14 Gflops peak List about $1M in early 1999
  • 300MHz Sony PlayStation 2

Technology Technology Presentation Transcript

  • Technology 2002
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  • Convergence
    • PDAs used to be exclusively about PIMs -- Personal Information Managers, or carrying your schedule, contacts, and perhaps some important text documents around with you. But Convergence, the coming together of Computing, Communications, Content, and Consumer Electronics, has expanded the "lowly" pocket organizer in new, very multimedia directions.
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    • Bluetooth
    • CAMEL - Customised Applications for Mobile Networks Enhanced Logic
    • Cellular Cassette
    • Dual Band
    • e-Commerce - Electronic Commerce
    • EDGE - Enhanced Data for GSM Evolution
    • EFR - Enhanced Full Rate
    • GPRS - General Packet Radio Service
    • GPS - Global Positioning System.
    • H.323
    • HSCSD - High Speed Circuit Switched Data
    • HTML - Hypertext markup language
    • http - Hypertext transfer protocol
    • iDEN®
    • IMT-2000 - International Mobile Telecommunications-2000
    • IP and VoIP - Internet Protocol and Voice over Internet Protocol
    • IRIDIUM®
    Groupe Spécial Mobile (GSM)
  • Groupe Spécial Mobile (GSM)
    • Java™
    • Java Card
    • MeXe - Mobile Execution Environment
    • Mobile e-Commerce
    • SIM Toolkit - Subscriber Identity Module Application Toolkit
    • Smart Cards
    • Smart Phones
    • Symbian
    • Telematics
    • TIPHON - Telecommunications and Internet Protocol Harmonisation over Networks
    • Tri-Band
    • TrueSync
    • UMTS - Universal Mobile Telecommunications System
    • Unified Messaging
    • UP - Unwired Planet®
    • VoiceXML™ - (Supplied by the VoiceXML™ Forum)
    • WAP - Wireless Application Protocol
    • Wireless Enterprise
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  • Wireless
    • The ways that notebooks and PDAs were flinging their packets through the air with abandon:
    • two-way paging networks
    • circuit-switched cellular CDPD (Cellular Digital Packet Data)
    • HomeRF
    • 802.11b's 11-megabits/second wireless LANs
    • 128 kilobits/second Ricochet networks
    • 384 kilobits/second of data over Ericsson's experimental EDGE cellular system
  • Wireless
    • Today's typical rate is 14.4 kilobits/second
    • 40 kilobits/second reached Portland in Aug. 2001 using AT&T Wireless GPRS (General Packet Radio Service)
    • In about a year, AT&T plans to upgrade this system to EDGE (Enhanced Data for GSM Evolution) technology, which should raise the peak data rate to a respectable 388 kilobits/second
    • The first upgrade for Sprint PCS will give customers always-on connections to the Internet or corporate networks at speeds of up to 144 kilobits per second--more than double the speed of the fastest dial-up modem.
    • By the end of 2002, the division will complete a second upgrade that will double the network's top speed to 288 kilobits per second, with a jump to movie-capable 3-megabit speeds tentatively set for 2004.
    • Helios
    • Loiters at 100,000 feet
    • Controlled by an on-board Macintosh
    • Will provide wireless broadband data at up to 125 megabits/second
    • Cost $10 million, compared to a satellite's $200 million
    • Latency: satellite - 23,000 miles high vs 19 miles high
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    • On Wednesday May 17, 2000 the Bluetooth promoter companies announced the availability of a new figure mark to be used along with Bluetooth applications. The new figure mark is based on the Bluetooth history as it is made up of the two runic characters "H" and "B" – short for "Harald Bluetooth". Harald Bluetooth was the Danish king who unified Denmark and Norway in the 10th century
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  • Wireless pen transmits anything written either directly to a PC or to PDAs (personal digital assistants) and cell phones Camera: Custom CMOS sensor, 100 FPS Processor: Proprietary ARM-based ASIC at 70 MHz Communication device: Bluetooth transceiver Battery: TBA Ink cartridge: Standard DIN 16654 Illumination: IR LED Resolution: 0.03 mm Weight: 45g For left and right handed use Paper quality: Standard Printing technique: Standard offset Pattern ink: Standard black Dot spacing: Nominally 0.3 mm (0.01 inch.) Total pattern size: 73 000 000 000 000 letter size pages Minimum readable pattern area: 2x2 mm (0.08x0.08 inch)
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  • Broadband Internet
    • The Federal Communications Commission says that the number of homes and small businesses with broadband connections was up 57% during the first half of 2000, although that only totals 4.3 million connections
    • By 2003 however, Forrester Research expects there will be 32 million broadband subscribers.
    • And by 2005, they expect that 191 million devices (only 36% of them traditional PCs) will have broadband connections to the Internet
  • Home Connection
    • The idea that cable and DSL will fill the bill over the long term seems to me at best wishful thinking, driven by the desperate need to save the legacy investments in the world’s largest above ground copper mines. The fact that we can not quite imagine what we would need a gigabit Ethernet home connection for today is in large part a result of the fact that we don’t have one. – Charles Davis
  • Fiber Optic
    • Internet traffic doubling every 100 days
    • 23 million miles of fiber-optic cable had been laid by the end of 1998, and [Renaissance Worldwide] predicts a 500-fold increase by 2002
    • 45 Mbps: $60K/mo in 1995, $15K/mo now
    • data over fiber is doubling every 9 months
  • Internet Exceeds 2 Billion Pages
    • July 10, 2000: 2.1 billion unique, publicly available pages exist
    • more than 7 million pages added each day
    • double in size by early 2001
    • highest rate of growth is still to come
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    • Although the most prominent feature of this tiny device is the 340 megabyte IBM microdrive, this "Matchbox PC" is a complete, fully-functional 66 MHz 486-SX-based PC from TIQIT that will run Windows 95/98 or NT, or Linux! (It will run at 100 MHz if you add a heat sink.) Add its port expander module, and you get all the standard PC ports, including built-in Ethernet. According to its manufacturer, the MPC is available now for $1,495.
    • 20.0 Gigabytes
    • Lightweight, only 62 grams
    • Low Power Consumption
    • 15ms Average Seek Time
    • 100MB/s Ultra DMA Transfer Rate
    • 300,000 MTTF Hours
    Toshiba introduces a 1.8-inch embedded HDD, the MK2003GAH.
  • MEMS
    • The MEMS (microelectromechanical systems) community has developed some truly intriguing products ­ from digital projectors that contain millions of electrically driven micromirrors to microscale motion sensors that sit in cars ready to deploy airbags.
    • MEMS represent the marriage of semiconductor processing to mechanical engineering ­ at a very small scale. And it is a field that has grown enormously during the past decade. Numerous companies ­ from the semiconductor giants to fledgling start-ups ­ are all now scrambling for a piece of the action at the microscale. Yet very little has been done with MEMS at sizes below one micrometre. This stands in striking contrast to the recent developments in mainstream microelectronics where chips are now mass-produced with features as small as 0.18 microns.
    • The time is ripe for a concerted exploration of nanoelectromechanical systems (NEMS)
  • Fiona Harvey
    • "Most man-made materials come from heating, grinding and crushing. But scientists can instill them with remarkable properties by building them atom-by-atom."
    • "Nanomaterials have many advantages. Where conventionally produced materials tend to be gross and irregular in composition, with many flaws, nanomaterials approach an elegant perfection. By defining the structure of a substance on such a small scale, scientists can create satisfyingly regular and even flawless shapes."
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  • The Space Elevator
    • The Space Elevator concept is a structure extending from the surface of the Earth to geo-stationary Earth orbit (GEO). Its center of mass is at GEO such that the entire structure orbits the Earth in sync with the Earth’s rotation maintaining a stationary position over its base attachment at the equator.
    • The idea of the space elevator was first raised in 1960 by Russian engineer Yuri Artsutanov, and rehashed several times in the years that followed. But the idea went largely unnoticed until 1979, when Arthur C. Clarke used it as the centerpiece for his novel The Fountains of Paradise .
    • Nano-technology has led to the development of a carbon nanotube material that exhibits strengths 100 times stronger than steel. This material is a prime candidate for the space-segment of the space elevator structure.
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  • Units of Measure
    • KB
  • Units of Measure
    • KB
    • MB 5MB: entire works of Shakespeare
  • Units of Measure
    • KB
    • MB 5MB: entire works of Shakespeare
    • GB 50GB: entire library floor of books
  • Units of Measure
    • KB
    • MB 5MB: entire works of Shakespeare
    • GB 50GB: entire library floor of books
    • TB 10TB: entire Library of Congress
  • Units of Measure
    • KB
    • MB 5MB: entire works of Shakespeare
    • GB 50GB: entire library floor of books
    • TB 10TB: entire Library of Congress
    • PB 2PB: all academic research libraries
  • Units of Measure
    • KB
    • MB 5MB: entire works of Shakespeare
    • GB 50GB: entire library floor of books
    • TB 10TB: entire Library of Congress
    • PB 2PB: all academic research libraries
    • EB 5EB: all words ever spoken by humans
  • Units of Measure
    • KB
    • MB 5MB: entire works of Shakespeare
    • GB 50GB: entire library floor of books
    • TB 10TB: entire Library of Congress
    • PB 2PB: all academic research libraries
    • EB 5EB: all words ever spoken by humans
    • ZB 4x10 20 : molecules in cubic inch of air
  • Units of Measure
    • KB
    • MB 5MB: entire works of Shakespeare
    • GB 50GB: entire library floor of books
    • TB 10TB: entire Library of Congress
    • PB 2PB: all academic research libraries
    • EB 5EB: all words ever spoken by humans
    • ZB 4x10 20 : molecules in cubic inch of air
    • YB 6x10 23 : atoms per mole (Avogadro’s #)
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  • Today
    • 2GHz Intel PC
    • 180GB Disk Drive
    • 1Gb Ethernet (10Gb just demonstrated)
    • 10Mb GSM
  • May, 2005
    • 2GHz Intel PC
    • 180GB Disk Drive
    • 1Gb Ethernet
    • 10Mb GSM
    • 8Ghz Intel PC
    • 1TB Disk Drive
    • 100Gb Ethernet
    • 10Gb GSM
  • Supercomputers
    • Decimal point arithmetic is called floating point
    • 3.45 * 5.67 = 19.5616
    • Performance is expressed in floating point operations per second (flops)
    • Kflops
    • Mflops
    • Gflops
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  • New Machine
    • What would you pay for 6.2 Gflop (peak) machine?
  •