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Does the Macintosh Market Share Understate the Platform's ....doc

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  • 1. Does the Macintosh Market Share Understate the Platform's Influence? ------------------------------------------------------- =============== MOTIVATION * the coffee shop observation; has anyone else ever made it? Primary research? HISTORICAL; OVERVIEW =========== Young, J. S., Simon W. L. iCon Steve Jobs: The Greatest Second Act in the History of Business. New York: Wiley 2005. * look at, Borders =========== Levy, Steven. Insanely Great: The Life and Times of Macintosh, the Computer that Changed Everything. New York: Penguin; 1993. 336 p. * look, possibly buy? =========== Wikipedia [web site]. Macintosh. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_Macintosh ; Nov 6 2006. Archived at http://webpages.cs.luc.edu/~mt/wiki_mac.html * amazingly useful; see refs 13 - 20 Ever since the introduction of the Macintosh, Apple has struggled to gain a significant share of the personal computer market. At first, the Macintosh 128K suffered from a dearth of available software compared to IBM's PC, resulting in disappointing sales in 1985. Only 500,000 Macs had been sold by the end of the year. Jobs had originally predicted that five million units would be sold within two years; sales eventually crossed the two million mark in 1988, and three years later, the installed base finally reached five million. Mac computers are most widely used in the creative professional market, including in journalism and desktop publishing, video editing and audio editing, but have also made in-roads into the educative and scientific research sectors [1]. By 1997, there were more than 20 million Mac users, compared to an installed base of around 340 million Windows PCs.[13][14] Statistics from late 2003 indicate that Apple had 2.06% of the desktop share in the United States, which had increased to 2.88% by Q4 2004.[15] As of July, 2006, research firms IDC and Gartner reported that Apple's market share had increased to between 4.6% and 4.8%.[16] The actual installed base of Macintosh computers is extremely hard to determine, with numbers ranging from a
  • 2. conservative 3%[17] to an optimistic 16%.[18] ================ MARKET SHARE Gruber, John. Market Share. In: Daring Fireball [web log]. http://daringfireball.net/2003/07/market_share ; 2003. * typical defensive argument from a few years back As for the PC business, some analysts say it’s time to stop measuring Apple and Gateway by their slice of the overall PC market, anyway. Gateway and Apple, as well as laptop specialist Toshiba, address only part of the market, said NPD Group analyst Stephen Baker. Dalrymple, J. Apple's Macintosh market share soars 16%. MacWorld [web site] http://www.macworld.com/news/2006/07/20/marketshare/index.php ; 2006. * turning around With Mac shipments rising from 655,000 to 760,000 year-over-year for the second quarter, Apple’s U.S. market jumped from 4.4 percent in 2005 to 4.8 percent in 2006 — a double-digital growth of 16 percent, according to market research firm IDC. IDC credits increases in Apple’s retail sector of 50 percent, as well as growth of 60 percent in its portable market for the steep increases. ... The news for Apple was just as good from market research form Gartner, as it clocked Apple at a 15.4 percent year-over-year increase for the second quarter. Gartner has Apple increasing sales from 663,000 to 766,000, moving its market share from 4.3 percent to 4.6 percent in the U.S. ================= INSTALLED BASE SHARE; LONGEVITY Apple Directions Staff. Apple Releases FY1997 Macintosh Installed Base Statistics. Apple Developer News No. 87. Available at http://developer.apple.com/adcnews/pastissues/devnews121997.html#stats A recent analysis of the worldwide Macintosh installed base and the Macintosh user base
  • 3. for fiscal year 1997 (ending September 30), revealed a number of interesting highlights, including the following: 27.6 million Macintosh computers have been shipped worldwide since 1984. 79 percent of all Macintosh computers shipped are still in use. (That's 21.8 million active Macintosh computers.) There are an average of 3.2 users per active installed Macintosh, which means there are 69.3 million Macintosh users worldwide. ================= DO SERVER LOGS TELL A TRUE STORY? typically published stats show Mac OS around 3 % http://www.pegasus3d.com/osshare.html but see, e.g., http://virtuelvis.com/archives/2005/05/statistics-nonsense browsers may be set to MSIE spiders claim to be MSIE different browsers may have different caching policies population of measured sites may be unrepresentative; do Mac users follow the corwd? ================= MIND SHARE Stoup, James R. How Microsoft Will Die. in: Apple Matters [web site]. http://www.applematters.com/index.php/section/comments/dont_look_now_but_the_coro ner_is_measuring_microsoft_for_a_black_suit/ ; 2005. This is a good indication of how bad the situation currently is and how much worse its going to get. Think about how much of a market share Apple has. Something like 3% of yearly sales with an install base of about 10-15%. Now, think about its mindshare. What is mindshare you ask? Well, its the extent to which people know about a phenomenon.
  • 4. The iPod has enormous mind share. You might not own one yourself but chances are you know someone who has does. The iPod alone has made Apple’s mindshare sky rocket. Now factor in the ITMS and how profitable it has been. Now think about the recent announcement of their switch to Intel. And then there is the ever present rumors about them starting a movie store much like the iTMS. People can’t stop talking about Apple and Jobs is just fanning the flames, trying his best to fuel the fires and feed the rumor mills. And all the while the media focuses on Apple do you know who they aren’t talking about? Microsoft. Think about all of the buzz that MS has gotten in the past when they released a new operating system. And here they are about to release an item they claim is their most revolutionary product ever and . . . no one is listening. No one cares. ==== http://www.macnn.com/articles/06/10/27/harvard.mac.sales.up.30/ According to The Harvard Crimson, personal purchases of Macs at Harvard are up 30 percent from last year, while sales of IBM Lenovo machines have more or less flat-lined. Harvard, one of Apple’s largest educational re-sellers, has seen a rebound in Mac sales from several years ago. The same trend was seen at another Ivy league university Princeton, where Mac purchases have tripled in the past three years. Harvard officials now say that demand for Macs has almost caught up to demand for non- Mac PCs, attributing the surge to several factors, including the new Intel-architecture for Windows compatibility, aesthetics, and a Unix-foundation for more technical students; however, the company notes that discount levels offered by Apple's competitors is "substantial," thus students are also looking at a combination of cost, software compatibility, and support issues (as well as aesthetics).