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Comparative economicanalysis

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  • 1. Comparative Analysis of Select Economic Indicators 1989/90 – 2010/11
  • 2. Historical US$/J$ Exchange Rate 1989 - 2007DATE RATEFebruary 10, 1989 5.51December 29, 1989 6.50December 31, 1990 8.81 Compounded annual rate ofDecember 31, 1991 21.57December 30, 1992 22.20 devaluation for the 18.55 yearsDecember 31, 1993 32.70December 30, 1994 33.37 between February 10, 1989December 29, 1995 39.80December 31, 1996 35.03 and August 31, 2007 wasDecember 31, 1997 36.59December 31, 1998December 30, 1999 37.16 41.42 14.67% per annum !December 29, 2000 45.53December 31, 2001 47.40December 31, 2002 50.97December 31, 2003 60.62December 31, 2004 61.63December 30, 2005 64.58December 29, 2006 67.15August 31, 2007 69.83Source: Bank of Jamaica
  • 3. Historical US$/J$ Exchange Rate 2007 - 2011DATE RATE Compounded annual rate ofSeptember 04, 2007 69.87 devaluation for the 4.24 yearsDecember 31, 2007 70.62December 31, 2008 80.47 between September 4, 2007December 31, 2009 89.60 and December 2, 2011 wasDecember 31, 2010 85.86December 02, 2011 86.71 5.2% per annum !Source: Bank of Jamaica
  • 4. Historical Annual Inflation Rate 1989 - 2007YEAR INFLATION 1989 17.20% Average annual inflation rate between 1989 1990 29.80% and 2007 was 19.68% per annum ! 1991 80.20% 1992 40.20% 1993 30.10% 1994 26.80% Annual Infla on 1995 25.60% 1989 - 2007 1996 15.80% 1997 9.20% 90.00% 1998 7.90% 80.00% 70.00% Annual Infla on 1999 6.80% 60.00% 2000 6.10% 50.00% 2001 8.50% 40.00% 2002 7.20% 30.00% 2003 13.80% 20.00% 10.00% 2004 13.70% 0.00% 2005 12.60% 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2006 5.70% 2007 16.80% Annual Inflation in 1986,87 and 88 was 10.4%, 8.4% and 8.5%Source: STATIN, Bank of Jamaica and respectively.The Economic and Social Survey of Jamaica 1992 Source: The Economic and Social Survey of Jamaica 1992
  • 5. Historical Annual Inflation Rate 2008 - 2011YEAR INFLATION 2008 16.8 Average annual inflation rate between 2008 2009 10.2 2010 11.7 and 2011 was 11.68% per annum 2011* 8.0Source: STATIN Annual Inflation Rate 2008 - 2011 18.00% 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% Axis Title 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% 2008 2009 2010 2011** Data for 2011 represents point-to-point inflation to Sep 30
  • 6. Average Annual Treasury Bill Rates 1990 - 2007 YEAR AVG RATE Average Treasury Bill Rate was 22.7% 1990 26.76% 1991 25.40% between 1990 and 2007! 1992 37.08% 1993 48.90% 1994 33.97% Average Annual Treasury Bill Rates 1995 25.43% 1990 - 2007 1996 31.08% 60.00% 1997 18.80% 1998 22.68% 50.00% 1999 18.76% Average Annual TBill Rate 40.00% 2000 16.72% 2001 15.42% 30.00% 2002 14.41% 2003 22.54% 20.00% 2004 14.20% 10.00% 2005 12.60% 2006 12.02% 0.00% 2007 11.86% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007Source: Bank of Jamaica (1993 – 2007) Economic and Social Survey of Jamaica (1990 - 1992)
  • 7. Average Annual Treasury Bill Rates 2008 - 2011 Average Treasury Bill Rate was 12.03% between 2008 and 2011 and the lowest in 30 YEAR AVG RATE years! 2008 14.69% 2009 18.12% Average Annual Treasury Bill Rates 2010 8.84% 2008 - 2011 2011 6.47% 20.00% 15.00%Source: Bank of Jamaica 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2008 2009 2010 2011 Series1
  • 8. GOJ Domestic Debt 1990/91 – 2010/11Fiscal Year Domestic Debt J$ Millions During the period 1990/91 – 2010/11, GOJ1990/91 11,869 domestic debt increased by 4,200% in1991/92 12,0781992/93 20,462 aggregate or at a compounded annual rate of1993/94 31,699 26.6% per annum1994/95 50,1381995/96 57,675 GOJ Domestic Debt1996/97 85,1811997/98 101,540 1990/91 - 2006/071998/99 139,204 600,000 500,0001999/00 175,323 J$ Millions 400,0002000/01 215,084 300,0002001/02 300,202 200,0002002/03 366,158 100,0002003/04 417,531 -2004/05 449,248 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/072005/06 482,7132006/07 513,931Source: Debt Management Unit, Ministry of Finance
  • 9. GOJ Domestic Debt 2007/08 – 2010/11Fiscal Year Domestic Debt J$ Millions During the period 2007/08 – 2010/11, GOJ2007/08 562,108 domestic debt increased by 43% or at a2008/09 651,6572009/10 758,700 compounded annual rate of 12.9% per annum2010/11 809,370Source: Debt Management Unit, GOJ Domestc Debt Ministry of Finance 2007/08 - 2010/11 1,200,000 900,000 J$ Millions 600,000 300,000 - 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
  • 10. GOJ External Debt 1990/91 – 2006/07Fiscal Year External Debt J$ Million Equivalent During the period 1990/91 – 2010/11, GOJ 1990/91 33,903 external debt (measured in J$) increased by 1991/92 103,757 1992/93 79,875 1,100% in aggregate or at a compounded 1993/94 120,577 annual rate of 16.8% per annum 1994/95 120,632 1995/96 136,168 GOJ External Debt (J$ Equivalent) 1996/97 113,121 1990/91 - 2006/07 1997/98 117,643 450,000 400,000 1998/99 123,099 350,000 1999/00 133,365 300,000 J$ Millions 2000/01 165,557 250,000 200,000 2001/02 196,881 150,000 2002/03 235,083 100,000 50,000 2003/04 276,316 - 2004/05 310,450 2005/06 364,639 2006/07 409,193Source: Debt Management Unit, Ministry of Finance
  • 11. GOJ External Debt 2007/08 – 2010/11 Fiscal Year External Debt During the period 2007/08 – 2010/11, GOJ J$ Million Equivalent 2007/08 438,567 external debt (measured in J$) increased by 2008/09 548,665 73% in aggregate or at a compounded annual 2009/10 676,055 rate of 20% per annum 2010/11 760,990Source: Debt Management Unit, Ministry of Finance GOJ External Debt (J$ Equivalent) 2007/08 – 2010/11 800,000 600,000 J$ Millions 400,000 200,000 - 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
  • 12. GOJ Total Debt 1990/91 – 2006/07Fiscal Year Total Debt J$ Million During the period 1990/91 – 2006/07, GOJ1990/91 45,772 Total Debt increased by 1,900% in aggregate1991/92 115,835 or at a compounded annual rate of 20.7% per1992/93 100,337 annum1993/94 152,2761994/95 170,7701995/96 193,843 GOJ Total Debt1996/97 198,302 1990/91 - 2006/071997/98 219,183 1,000,0001998/99 262,303 900,000 800,0001999/00 308,688 700,000 J$ Millions 600,0002000/01 380,641 500,0002001/02 497,083 400,000 300,0002002/03 601,241 200,000 100,0002003/04 693,847 -2004/05 759,697 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/072005/06 847,3512006/07 923,124Source: Debt Management Unit, Ministry of Finance
  • 13. GOJ Total Debt 2007/08 – 2010/11 Fiscal Year Total Debt During the period 2007/08 – 2010/11, GOJ J$ Millions 2007/08 1,000,676 total debt (measured in J$) increased by 57% 2008/09 1,200,322 in aggregate or at a compounded annual rate 2009/10 1,434,756 of 16.2% per annum 2010/11 1,570,360Source: Debt GOJ Total DebtManagement 2007/08 - 2010/11Unit, Ministry of Finance 1,500,000 Axis Title 1,000,000 500,000 - 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
  • 14. Debt/GDP 1990/91 – 2006/07Fiscal Year Debt/GDP Debt/GDP Ratio1990/91 120.63% 1990/91 - 2010/111991/92 193.53% 200.00%1992/93 105.64% Debt/GDP Ratio1993/94 116.52% 150.00%1994/95 99.45% 100.00%1995/96 91.10%1996/97 71.35% 50.00%1997/98 72.33%1998/99 80.84% 0.00% 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/111999/00 86.56%2000/01 97.05%2001/02 115.66%2002/03 124.69%2003/04 122.02%2004/05 119.42%2005/06 118.73%2006/07 113.23%2007/08 108.45%2008/09 115.69%2009/10 129.35%2010/11 128.30% Source: Debt Management Unit, Ministry of Finance
  • 15. Between 1991 and 2007, average GDP growth in Jamaica was 0.82% per annum

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