Gil 2012 Africa Mega Trends Africa Energy & Power by Cornelis van der Waal

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Gil 2012 Africa Mega Trends Africa Energy & Power by Cornelis van der Waal

  1. 1. Energy and Power Africa Cornelis van der Waal Business Unit Leader - AfricaSponsored by: We Accelerate Growth 1
  2. 2. Africa – Did you know ? $1 trillion 60% 30% 7 000MW Needed over The % of Of Africa’s Is needed the Next 20 Africa’s Electricity Every Year in Years to Meet Population Demand is Africa to Meet Africa’s Power without from the Growth Demand Electricity Mining Demand Access Sector > 1%Africa’s Share of Global RE 250MW 9% 13% Investment in 2011 Is the Average Africa Accounts Additional Growth in for 13% of the Cogeneration Genset Worlds Planned for Rental On Population, but Africa by 2016 the Accounts for Continent Only 5% of Global Energy Consumption 13% 5.5% Of the Global Average Hydro Potential Economic is in Africa (Less Growth than 20% of this Across the Developed to Continent Date)
  3. 3. So What will Shape this Market? Energy and Power 3
  4. 4. A number of countries have been identified as high potential growth areas Medium Term Country Opportunity Outlook (Africa), 2012-2017 Morocco Algeria Libya Egypt Western Sahara Senegal Mauritania Mali Niger Chad Gambia SudanGuinea Bissau Guinea Nigeria Sierra Leone Ethiopia CAR Liberia Ghana Benin Somalia Burkina Cote D’Ivoire Togo DRC Kenya Faso Cameroon Uganda Equatorial Guinea Tanzania Republic of Congo Gabon Angola Zambia Current RE Mix in Africa (2011) Mozambique Namibia High Growth Zimbabwe Botswana Medium Growth South Africa Low Growth * Electricity development driven by mineral resources 4
  5. 5. The Current Level of Electrification is a Good Indicator ofEconomic Expansion Realities in the Medium Term Levels of Electrification in Selected African Countries High Electricity Access Medium Electricity Access Low Electricity Access 5
  6. 6. Energy Demand and Supply Analysis – Where are the Gaps? 3000 25% 2500 20% 2000 MW 15% % Growt 1500 h 10% 1000 5% 500 0 0% Energy Deficit in MW Electricity Demand Percentage Growth for 2011 Note: South Africas existing power infrastructure is in need of significant maintenance Africa’s fast growing markets have significant deficits in their electricity supply, a gap which is necessary to fill to fuel its economic growth 6
  7. 7. Where are the Key Projects? 22,000 MW of renewable 7,200 MW of energy (solar and wind) to wind power be developed between 2011 generation and 2030 capacity Morocco Algeria Egypt 2,000 MW Wind Power Plant and 2,000 MW Solar 1,800MW Gibe III Power Plan is currently under Nigeria Ethiopia construction Mediterranean Solar Plan (MSP) Kenya and Desertec (DII) are the 650MW combined driving seat for cycle gas plant the renewable (CCGT) energy growth World’s 3rd largest supercritical coal South Africa 428km transmission fired plant line project 7
  8. 8. RE Planned Growth Installed Capacity 2011 Planned Capacity by 2020 Kenya, 1 852 Algeria, 29 Kenya, 250 Ethiopia, 857 Algeria, 4 600 Tanzania, 274 Ethiopia, 14 Uganda, 114 Rwanda, 104 Tanzania, 32Egypt, 567 Uganda, 56 South Africa, Rwanda, 7 6 000 South Africa, 10 Egypt, 7 350 Morroco, 300 Morroco, Tunisia, 115 Tunisia, 650 4 000 1,380 MW 25,800 MW Wind Solar Geothermal Biomass > > > 8
  9. 9. Distributed Power and Africa – The Next Best Thing? Key Installed Power Rental (2011) 70MW Suppliers Installed Power Rental (2009) 100MW New Equipment Sales (2009) $13.9 Million Installed Power Rental (2011) New Equipment Sales (2009) 408MW $900 Million New Equipment Sales (2009) $16 Million Installed Power Rental (2012) New Equipment Sales (2009) 393MW $14.5 Million New Equipment Sales (2009) $101.8 Million New Equipment Sales (2011) $164.3 Million 9
  10. 10. South Africa in Focus South Africa – Focus Renewable Energy: 17GW by 2030 Solar: PV and CSP a combined target Eskom 5 year $40 billion of 9.4GW Wind: 8.4GW target with a key focus Investment Budget - on localisation Other: 1000MW of small hydro, 13% Transmission municipal waste to energy and 55% Generation biomass 13% Distribution New IPP’s Licenced in 2012: 8% Other 2030 - 9.6GW Added 31 RE Projects Nuclear 3,725biddingup for allocation at present with more MW is rounds expected shortly In excess of $50 billion expected before 2025 Significant opportunity for Distribution Backlog (2012): nuclear equipment suppliers $4.3 Billion Significant opportunity for local Poor infrastructure management the past 15 manufacturers years has created a significant opportunity Key focus on transformers, switchgear, smart metring and cables 10
  11. 11. Conclusions 11

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