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2013 mobile-factbook

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The worldwide mobile market has enjoyed continued significant growth in the past few years. Worldwide, the overall industry is anticipated to continue its growth phase in the near future. …

The worldwide mobile market has enjoyed continued significant growth in the past few years. Worldwide, the overall industry is anticipated to continue its growth phase in the near future.

As the penetration of mobile services rose year-on-year and markets became more saturated, Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) started to leverage other modes of communication beyond voice (such as SMS, MMS and Mobile E-mail), in order to stabilise their Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) and strengthen their overall value proposition. In addition, another stream of revenue was simultaneously explored that included mobile infotainment and entertainment services, such as news updates, games
and music, which became known as Value Added Services (VAS).

Being one of the most dynamic industries, the wireless sector has never been short of innovation. Even as the overall market was riding on the success of new products –including messaging and VAS, leading operators started offering other data services and payment services. This move was supported by mobile handset vendors who launched advanced devices with greater computing power and better operating systems (OS). As the industry has matured and voice services have become commoditised,
MNOs worldwide switched focus ever more on to mobile data services, mobile app downloads and mobile payment services.

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  • 1. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 2 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 2. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Portio Research Limited. Published February 2013 by Portio Research Limited © Copyright 2013. www.portioresearch.com info@portioresearch.com Disclaimer and Legal Notices Disclaimer Every care has been taken in the preparation of this study to ensure that the information contained herein is accurate, factual and correct to the best of our knowledge, at time of publishing. All opinions, suppositions, estimates and recommendations included in this document are solely the opinions of the authors unless otherwise stated. Portio Research Limited accepts no liability for any loss or damage or unforeseen consequential loss or damage arising from the use of the information contained within this document. The opinions, suppositions, estimates and recommendations within this document cannot be guaranteed, and readers use this information at their own risk. The information published in this document is subject to change without notice at any time, and Portio Research Limited accepts no liability or obligation to inform the reader of such changes. Portio Research Limited do not promote or endorse any specific companies or products, the views and opinions we express in this document are wholly our own assessments, and independent from any external interest or influence. Many terms and phrases and trade names used in this document are proprietary and Portio Research Limited recognises and acknowledges that all trademarks are copyright, belonging to their respective owners. Where possible, this document accords such terms and phrases and trade names to their respective owners. All Rights Reserved. No part of this document can be copied, shared, redistributed, transmitted, displayed in the public domain, stored or displayed on any internal or external company or private network or electronic retrieval system, nor reprinted, republished or reconstituted in any way without the express written permission of the publisher. Forwarding of this electronic document without the correct legal licence is theft. It’s unethical, immoral and against the law. If you have any questions about the legal licence conditions under which this document has been distributed, please contact Portio Research on info@portioresearch.com If you did not buy this document and a colleague or associate has sent it to you, do not assume you are legally entitled to read it, it is your responsibility to ensure you have the correct legal licence to read this document. © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 3
  • 3. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Contents Mobile Subscriber Base ..........................................................................................................7 Worldwide Mobile Market ..................................................................................................................... 7 Subscriber Base – Worldwide .............................................................................................................. 7 Regional Overview ............................................................................................................................... 8 Half of ‘the mobile world’ is in Asia .................................................................................................... 9 Subscriber Base: Country Forecasts ...................................................................................12 Mobile Handset Shipments ...................................................................................................18 Smartphone Market ................................................................................................................24 Mobile OS Market ...................................................................................................................30 Mobile Installed Base .............................................................................................................34 Appendices .............................................................................................................................42 Glossary............................................................................................................................................. 43 Portio Research Classifications ......................................................................................................... 48 Also available from Portio Research Limited ..................................................................................... 49 4 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 4. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 List of Figures Figure 1: Figure 2: Figure 3: Figure 4: Figure 5: Figure 6: Figure 7: Figure 8: Figure 9: Figure 10: Figure 11: Figure 12: Figure 13: Figure 14: Figure 15: Figure 16: Figure 17: Figure 18: Figure 19: Figure 20: Figure 21: Figure 22: Figure 23: Figure 24: Figure 25: Figure 26: Figure 27: Figure 28: Figure 29: Figure 30: Figure 31: Figure 32: Mobile Subscribers – Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2016F)............................................... 7 Subscriber Base Growth Rate – Regional (In Percent) ..................................................................... 8 Mobile Subscriber Base – Regional (In Million, 2013F) ..................................................................... 8 Worldwide Mobile Subscriber Base – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2012F, 2013F & 2016F) ... 9 Top 10 Countries by Mobile Subscriber Additions – Worldwide (In Million, End 2011 – End 2016F)... ......................................................................................................................................................... 12 Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Worldwide (In Percent, End 2011 – End 2016F) .............................................................................................................................................. 13 Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Western Europe (In Percent, End 2011– End 2016F) ...................................................................................................................................... 13 Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Eastern Europe (In Percent, End 2011 – End 2016F) ...................................................................................................................................... 14 Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Asia Pacific (In Percent, End 2011 – End 2016F) .............................................................................................................................................. 14 Top 5 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Latin America (In Percent, End 2011 – End 2016F) .............................................................................................................................................. 15 Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Middle East (In Percent, End 2011 – End 2016F) .............................................................................................................................................. 15 Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Africa (In Percent, End 2011 – End 2016F) ......................................................................................................................................................... 16 Mobile Handset Shipments – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2016F)................................................. 18 Handset Shipments and Subscriber Base Growth Rate – Worldwide (In Percent, 2011– 2016F) .... 19 Handset Shipments – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2012F, 2013F & 2016F) .......................... 20 Mobile Handset Shipments – Regional (In Million, 2013F) ............................................................... 21 Regional Dominance – Mobile Handset Vendors (2012F) ................................................................ 22 Handset Shipments & Smartphone Shipments – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2016F) .................. 24 Smartphone Contribution to Handset Shipments – Worldwide (In Percent, 2009 – 2016F) ............. 25 Smartphone Shipments – Growth Rate – Regional (In Percent) .................................................... 25 Smartphone Shipments – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2012F, 2013F & 2016F) ................... 26 Smartphone Shipments – Regional (In Million, 2013F) .................................................................... 27 Regional Dominance – Smartphone Vendors (2012F) ..................................................................... 28 Handset Shipments by Operating Systems – Worldwide (In Percent, 2012F, 2013F & 2016F) ....... 31 Mobile Installed Base – Worldwide (In Million, 2011 & 2016F) ......................................................... 34 Mobile Installed Base Penetration by Type – Worldwide (In Percent, End 2011 – End 2016F)........ 35 Mobile Installed Base Trend – Worldwide (End 2011 – End 2016F) ................................................ 36 Mobile Installed Base Trend – Europe (End 2011 – End 2016F)...................................................... 37 Mobile Installed Base Trend – Asia Pacific (End 2011 – End 2016F)............................................... 37 Mobile Installed Base Trend – North America (End 2011 – End 2016F) .......................................... 38 Mobile Installed Base Trend – Latin America (End 2011 – End 2016F) ........................................... 39 Mobile Installed Base Trend – Middle East & Africa (2011-2016F) .................................................. 40 List of Tables Table 1: Comparison of Mobile Operating Systems based on Selected Parameters ..................................... 30 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 5
  • 5. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Chapter 1 Mobile Subscriber Base 6 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 6. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Mobile Subscriber Base Worldwide Mobile Market The worldwide mobile market has enjoyed continued significant growth in the past few years. Worldwide, the overall industry is anticipated to continue its growth phase in the near future. As the penetration of mobile services rose year-on-year and markets became more saturated, Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) started to leverage other modes of communication beyond voice (such as SMS, MMS and Mobile E-mail), in order to stabilise their Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) and strengthen their overall value proposition. In addition, another stream of revenue was simultaneously explored that included mobile infotainment and entertainment services, such as news updates, games and music, which became known as Value Added Services (VAS). Being one of the most dynamic industries, the wireless sector has never been short of innovation. Even as the overall market was riding on the success of new products – including messaging and VAS, leading operators started offering other data services and payment services. This move was supported by mobile handset vendors who launched advanced devices with greater computing power and better operating systems (OS). As the industry has matured and voice services have become commoditised, MNOs worldwide switched focus ever more on to mobile data services, mobile app downloads and mobile payment services. Subscriber Base – Worldwide The worldwide mobile subscriber base is expected to reach 6.5 billion by end-2012 taking global mobile penetration to approximately 92 percent. The subscriber base is forecast to increase at a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.3 percent between 2011 and 2016, to reach nearly 8.5 billion by end2016. This growth will be led by markets in Asia Pacific and Africa. The figure below highlights year-onyear subscriber base growth for the period 2009-2016. Figure 1: Mobile Subscribers – Worldwide (In Million, End 2009 – End 2016F) Mobile Subscribers (In Million) 10000 CAGR = 7.3% CAGR = 13.2% 8000 6000 5,356 5,968 7,015 6,512 7,511 8,479 7,997 4,660 4000 2000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F Year Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted The growth in the mobile subscriber base will be led by markets in Asia Pacific and Africa. © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 7
  • 7. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Regional Overview Africa will witness the fastest subscriber growth with a CAGR of 9.4 percent between 2011 and 2016, followed by Asia Pacific with a CAGR of 9 percent during the same period. Furthermore, the advanced markets of North America and Western Europe are approaching saturation, with most of the markets having close to or more than 100 percent mobile penetration. Regional CAGR (2011-2016) is depicted in the figure below. Figure 2: Subscriber Base Growth Rate – Regional (In Percent) CAGR 2011-2016 (In Percent) 10% 9.0% Worldwide CAGR = 7.3% 9.4% 7.7% 8% 6.0% 6% 4.0% 4% 2.1% 2.4% Western Europe Eastern Europe 2% 0% Asia Pacific North America Latin America Middle East Africa Year Source: Portio Research Ltd. The figure below depicts the estimated mobile subscriber base by region for the end of 2013. Figure 3: Mobile Subscriber Base – Regional (In Million, 2013F) Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted 8 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 8. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Half of ‘the mobile world’ is in Asia The percentage contribution of the Asia Pacific region to the worldwide mobile subscriber base will increase from 51.3 percent at end-2012 to 54.3 percent at end-2016; similarly, Africa’s percentage contribution will increase from 11 percent at end-2012 to 11.9 percent at end-2016. The percentage contributions of all other regions – bar the Middle East – are expected to decrease continuously over the same period. The contribution from the Middle East region is expected to remain almost constant. 1 Figure 4: Worldwide Mobile Subscriber Base – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2012F, 2013F & 2016F) 2013F 2012F 8.4% 8.0% 11.2% 9.0% 8.6% 4.2% 10.2% 11.0% 4.2% 10.3% 5.8% 5.6% 51.3% 52.3% Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia Pacific North America Latin America Middle East Africa 2016F 11.9% 4.3% 7.0% 7.5% 9.9% 5.1% 54.3% Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted 1 Note: Figures may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding-off errors. © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 9
  • 9. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2012-2016 Your essential guide to understanding the size, scope and major players of the worldwide mobile industry. Serving as an invaluable guide for those in and outside the mobile space to enable better understanding of the worldwide mobile market, the third edition of this detailed and comprehensively updated handbook offers you all the essential market data required for business strategy and planning purposes, including: in-depth subscriber growth forecasts for leading countries, subscriber figures for key network operators across all major geographies, market share data, quarterly handset shipment figures, handset and infrastructure vendor profiles, analysis of popular handsets/smartphones, ARPU data, churn figures and so much more. This essential 192-page market report will act as a touchstone to refer back to again and again for meetings, presentations and business plans. Please click here for more details. 10 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 10. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Chapter 2 Subscriber Base: Country Forecasts © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 11
  • 11. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Subscriber Base: Country Forecasts The Top 10 countries worldwide, by mobile subscriber additions over FY 2011 to FY 2016, will be adding 1,807 million mobile subscribers over the next five years. This is equivalent to 72 percent of the total subscriber additions worldwide over that period. 800 633.4 600 534.7 78.8 71.0 65.0 57.1 55.1 Iran 94.8 Nigeria 108.3 Bangladesh 108.5 The US 200 Pakistan 400 Egypt Mobile Subscriber Additions (In Million) Figure 5: Top 10 Countries by Mobile Subscriber Additions – Worldwide (In Million, End 2011 – End 2016F) Brazil Indonesia India China 0 Country Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted 12 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 12. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Countries from Asia Pacific, the Middle East and Africa are among the Top 10 emerging markets with high CAGRs; Egypt, Oman and Sudan are the Top 3 fastest growing mobile markets worldwide based on this 2011-2016 metric. 16.71 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 14.60 9.85 Nigeria 10.05 Uganda 10.52 China 11.17 Pakistan 11.18 Iran 11.24 Mozambique 11.99 Bangladesh Sudan Oman 12.23 Egypt CAGR (In Percent) Figure 6: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Worldwide (In Percent, End 2011 – End 2016F) Country Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted The French market is expected to have a mobile subscriber base of 87.3 million by end-2016, indicating a CAGR of 4.9 percent between 2011 and 2016 – the highest CAGR in the Western European region. Adjacent to France, during the period end-2011 to end-2016, the UK is expected to witness the lowest growth – of just 0.6 percent. Figure 7: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Western Europe (In Percent, End 2011– End 2016F) CAGR (In Percent) 6% 4.9% 4.4% 4.2% 4.0% 4% 3.9% 3.4% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.1% 2% Country Norway Switzerland Belgium The Netherlands Denmark Sweden Ireland Finland Austria France 0% Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 13
  • 13. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Greece is expected to lead the Eastern European region in terms of subscriber growth, with a CAGR of 5.9 percent between 2011 and 2016, followed by Belarus (5.6 percent) and Poland (4.3 percent). Figure 8: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Eastern Europe (In Percent, End 2011 – End 2016F) CAGR (In Percent) 8% 5.9% 6% 5.6% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4% 3.2% 2.7% 1.8% 2% 1.7% 1.6% Croatia Serbia Romania 0% Greece Belarus Poland Turkey Bulgaria Slovakia Hungary Country Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Asia Pacific: Over the period Year-end 2011 to Year-end 2016, Bangladesh’s mobile market will grow fastest. The subscriber base in the country stood at 85.5 million at end-2011, and will reach 150.5 million by end-2016. Pakistan will achieve the second largest 2011-2016 CAGR rate with 11.2 percent. In CAGR terms, third and fourth placed China and India will grow at respective rates of 10.5 and 9.8 percent. This is shown in the figure below. 15% 11.2% 10.5% 9.8% 10% 9.4% 8.5% 7.5% 6.9% 4.8% 4.3% Thailand 12.0% Japan CAGR (In Percent) Figure 9: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Asia Pacific (In Percent, End 2011 – End 2016F) 5% Kazakhstan Indonesia The Philippines Afghanistan India China Pakistan Bangladesh 0% Country Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted 14 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 14. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 North America: It is expected that the mobile market of Canada and The US will witness a CAGR of 4.7 and 4.0 percent respectively during the period end-2011 to end-2016. In the case of Latin America, pole positioned Brazil and second place Peru will lead their peers in terms of subscriber base growth rate. The Brazilian mobile market is expecting a growth rate of 7.6 percent over the period 2011-2016; while Peru should achieve 7 percent during the same period. Figure 10: Top 5 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Latin America (In Percent, End 2011 – End 2016F) CAGR (In Percent) 12% 9% 7.6% 7.0% 5.9% 5.7% 5.3% Chile Colombia Argentina 6% 3% 0% Brazil Peru Country Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Growth of mobile subscribers in the Middle East during the period end-2011 to end-2016 is expected to be half of the growth witnessed during the period 2009 to 2011. The mobile subscriber base of the region is expected to increase at a CAGR of 7.7 percent during 2011-2016. Iran and Saudi Arabia are expected to continue their dominance as the largest overall markets over the period 2011-2016. Figure 11: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Middle East (In Percent, End 2011 – End 2016F) CAGR (In Percent) 20% 15% 14.6% 11.2% 10% 6.8% 5.2% 5.1% 5% 4.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.5% 3.0% Kuwait Saudi Arabia The UAE Qatar Israel 0% Oman Iran Jordan Syria Iraq Country Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 15
  • 15. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Africa: Egypt and Sudan will grow at the fastest pace during the period 2011-2016 registering CAGRs of 16.7 percent and 12.2 percent respectively. Figure 12: Top 10 Countries by CAGR of Mobile Subscriber Base – Africa (In Percent, End 2011 – End 2016F) 20% CAGR (In Percent) 16.7% 15% 12.2% 11.2% 10.1% 9.9% 9.8% 10% 9.5% 9.4% 9.0% 8.9% Tanzania Kenya Ghana 5% 0% Egypt Sudan Mozambique Uganda Nigeria DR of Congo Angola Country Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Worldwide Mobile Industry Handbook 2012-2016 Your essential guide to understanding the size, scope and major players of the worldwide mobile industry. Serving as an invaluable guide for those in and outside the mobile space to enable better understanding of the worldwide mobile market, the third edition of this detailed and comprehensively updated handbook offers you all the essential market data required for business strategy and planning purposes, including: in-depth subscriber growth forecasts for leading countries, subscriber figures for key network operators across all major geographies, market share data, quarterly handset shipment figures, handset and infrastructure vendor profiles, analysis of popular handsets/smartphones, ARPU data, churn figures and so much more. This essential 192-page market report will act as a touchstone to refer back to again and again for meetings, presentations and business plans. Please click here for more details. 16 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 16. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Chapter 3 Mobile Handset Shipments © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 17
  • 17. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Mobile Handset Shipments Over the period from the end of 2009 to the end of 2011, annual worldwide handset shipments enjoyed significant growth. The overall handset market saw a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15.3 percent during this period and total handset shipments reached 1.5 billion in full year 2011. The two key factors that led to this growth were:  An increase in mobile penetration in emerging markets  Growing popularity of many new smartphones The figure below shows total handset shipments for the period 2009 to 2016. Figure 13: Mobile Handset Shipments – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2016F) Mobile Handset Shipments (In Million) 2,700 2,200 1,549 1,700 1,200 1,674 1,819 1,947 2,056 2,148 1,375 1,166 700 200 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F Year Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted The mobile handset industry is expected to continue its growth phase in the foreseeable future. The overall market will grow at a CAGR of 6.8 percent during the period 2011-2016 and the number of shipments will cross 2 billion in the year 2015. Overall handset shipments are expected to reach 2.1 billion in the year 2016. Based on the mobile handset shipments during the period 2011-2016, regions can be classified into two clusters – Replacement Markets and Growth Markets. Replacement markets include the geographies wherein handset replacements will drive shipments growth, while in growth markets the increase in subscriber penetration will lead to an increase in total handset shipments. This is shown in the figure below. 18 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 18. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Figure 14: Handset Shipments and Subscriber Base Growth Rate – Worldwide (In Percent, 2011– 2016F) Growth Markets 14% 11.6% 12% Growth Rate (In Percent) 10% 9.4% 9.0% Replacement Markets 8% 6.8% 6% 4% 11.1% 3.8% 2.1% 7.3% 7.0% 7.7% 7.7% 6.0% 4.6% 4.0% 4.4% 2.4% 2% 0% Western Europe Eastern Europe North America Worldwide Asia Pacific Latin America Middle East Africa Region Handset Shipments Subscriber Base Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted In 2012, the Asia Pacific region, quite unsurprisingly, contributed the most to worldwide handset shipments with 42.5 percent share. It was followed by North America with 12.5 percent share. With the increasing mobile subscriber base and rise in the handset replacement rate it is anticipated that the Asia Pacific region will strengthen its position as the overall largest region for handset shipments. Nearly 43 percent of worldwide total shipments will be in the Asia Pacific region in the year 2016. Conversely, the contribution of the more saturated European and North American regions will decline during the period 2011-2016 whereas it will increase for the Middle East and Africa. © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 19
  • 19. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Regional contributions for the years 2012, 2013 and 2016 are shown in the figure below. 2 Figure 15: Handset Shipments – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2012F, 2013F & 2016F) 2013F 2012F 11.3% 8.1% 8.7% 8.1% 10.9% 4.5% 8.3% 12.0% 4.6% 12.2% 42.5% 12.2% 12.5% Western Europe 44.0% Eastern Europe Asia Pacific North America Latin America Middle East Africa 2016F 10.2% 9.9% 5.0% 7.9% 12.2% 11.6% 43.1% Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted 2 Note: Figures may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding-off errors. 20 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 20. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 It is expected that total handset shipments in the Asia Pacific region will be 801 million in full year 2013. Also this year, North America is expected to see 222 million handset shipments closely followed by Latin America with 218 million handset shipments. The figure 16 depicts the mobile handset shipments by region for the year 2013. Figure 16: Mobile Handset Shipments – Regional (In Million, 2013F) Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 21
  • 21. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 According to our forecasts, Nokia dominated shipments in four out of seven of the regions in terms of highest overall handset shipments in 2012. Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa were all led by Nokia. The remaining three regions North America, Latin America and Western Europe were largely led by Samsung as #1 vendor. This is shown in Figure 17 below. Figure 17: Regional Dominance – Mobile Handset Vendors (2012F) Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Smartphone Futures 2012-2016 The smartphone business has been the single biggest revenue generating growth-story over the last 4 years as the rest of the tech sector suffers amid this seemingly endless recession. Subscriber growth has slowed dramatically in saturated markets, voice and text have reach commodity pricing and margins are constantly squeezed hard under consumer pressure, yet around the world the appetite for new smartphones continues to gain pace. Continuing to redefine the handset business, smartphones are fast becoming the device of choice for hundreds of millions of consumers, and 2012 is the year that worldwide smartphone shipments will top half a billion in one year. In this report you will learn that smartphone shipments reached 485 million in 2011, and that number will top 655 million in 2012, rising to over 1 billion smartphones per year by 2016. Please click here for more details. 22 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 22. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Chapter 4 Smartphone Market © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 23
  • 23. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Smartphone Market Worldwide smartphone shipments will reach 1,095 million by 2016 and account for 51 percent of total handset shipments. The figure below compares total handset shipments with smartphone shipments year-on-year. Figure 18: Handset Shipments & Smartphone Shipments – Worldwide (In Million, 2009 – 2016F) 2,500 2,000 Shipments (In Million) 2,056 1,947 1,500 1,819 1,674 1,549 1,375 1,166 968 858 1,000 485 500 2,148 175 655 1,095 752 296 0 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F Year Handset Shipments Smartphone Shipments Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted The increasing penetration of smartphones is beneficial for both MNOs and handset vendors. Obviously, the popularity of smartphones has boosted handset vendor finances considerably over recent years. The widespread migration of subscribers from feature phones and basic handsets to smartphones has helped the handset vendors generate vast new revenue flows. It also helps the MNOs lure subscribers form prepaid to postpaid deals, and on to data bundles, all of which strengthens ARPU and reduces churn. . Smartphone shipments as a percentage of worldwide handset shipments are highlighted in the figure below. Based on current forecasts, smartphones will pass the 50% mark to account for the majority of worldwide handset shipments by the end of 2016. 24 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 24. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Figure 19: Smartphone Contribution to Handset Shipments – Worldwide (In Percent, 2009 – 2016F) Moderate Growth Phase Smartphone Contribution (In Percent) 60% 51.0% High Growth Phase 50% 41.3% 39.1% 40% 31.3% 30% 20% 47.1% 44.1% 21.5% 15.0% 10% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F Year Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Smartphone shipments in Africa are expected to grow at the fastest rate over the 2011-2016 period. It is anticipated that the African market will grow at a CAGR of 38.6 percent. During the same period the second highest growth rate will be observed in Eastern Europe (26.2 percent). This is shown in the figure below. Figure 20: Smartphone Shipments – Growth Rate – Regional (In Percent) CAGR 2011-2016 (In Percent) 50% 40% 38.6% Worldwide CAGR = 7.3% 30% 26.2% 23.6% 23.9% 20.2% 20% 9.5% 9.1% 10% 0% Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia Pacific North America Latin America Middle East Africa Year Source: Portio Research Ltd. The Asia Pacific region is the largest Smartphone market with more than one-third contribution to the overall worldwide smartphone market. This trend is expected to continue on to 2016. © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 25
  • 25. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 The figure below depicts the region-wise share of worldwide Smartphone Shipments for the years 2012, 2103 and 2016. 3 Figure 21: Smartphone Shipments – Regional Contribution (In Percent, 2012F, 2013F & 2016F) 2013F 2012F 19.4% 4.1% 3.8% 4.0% 8.0% 4.7% 17.9% 4.7% 8.5% 5.1% 20.0% 21.4% 38.3% 40.2% Western Europe Eastern Europe Asia Pacific North America Latin America Middle East Africa 2016F 7.7% 14.0% 4.9% 8.0% 7.0% 16.0% 42.3% Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted 3 Note: Figures may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding-off errors. 26 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 26. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 It is expected that more than 300 million smartphones will be shipped to the Asia Pacific region this year (2013). During the same year North America is expected to witness 150 million smartphone shipments. Figure 22, below, depicts the smartphone shipments by region for 2013. Figure 22: Smartphone Shipments – Regional (In Million, 2013F) Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 27
  • 27. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 The figure below highlights the key leading smartphone vendors in each region. Figure 23: Regional Dominance – Smartphone Vendors (2012F) Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted Smartphone Futures 2012-2016 The smartphone business has been the single biggest revenue generating growth-story over the last 4 years as the rest of the tech sector suffers amid this seemingly endless recession. Subscriber growth has slowed dramatically in saturated markets, voice and text have reach commodity pricing and margins are constantly squeezed hard under consumer pressure, yet around the world the appetite for new smartphones continues to gain pace. Continuing to redefine the handset business, smartphones are fast becoming the device of choice for hundreds of millions of consumers, and 2012 is the year that worldwide smartphone shipments will top half a billion in one year. In this report you will learn that smartphone shipments reached 485 million in 2011, and that number will top 655 million in 2012, rising to over 1 billion smartphones per year by 2016. Please click here for more details. 28 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 28. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Chapter 5 Mobile OS Market © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 29
  • 29. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Mobile OS Market The table below scores the major mobile operating systems on a selection of key parameters. Table 1: Comparison of Mobile Operating Systems based on Selected Parameters Parameters 4 BB OS iOS Android 21 18 26 Design & Hardware (Choice & Availability) Pricing Global Presence Consumer Segment Popularity Enterprise Segment Popularity Handset Vendor Partnerships Application Stores Total Market Impact Score (Out of 28) Source: Portio Research Ltd. Android handsets accounted for 60.5 percent of the total smartphone shipments in the year 2012 worldwide. The corresponding figure is expected to drop marginally and reach 57.4 percent this year, in 2013. We forecast that Android will continue to dominate the market in the near future and maintain its global market share at around 57percent through to 2016. The figure below shows this trend for the years 2012, 2013 and 2016. 4 Note: Total Score for an OS has been calculated by summing up the scores indicated by the number of orange-colored quarters for all parameters. For example, iOS scores two on the ‘Pricing’ parameter and four on the ‘Application Stores’ parameter. 30 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 30. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 5 Figure 24: Handset Shipments by Operating Systems – Worldwide (In Percent, 2012F, 2013F & 2016F) 2013F 2012F 0.6% 6.0% 4.6% 60.5% 7.5% 5.6% 4.4% 6.9% 5.3% 21.2% 57.4% 19.9% Andriod Apple iOS BB OS Symbian Windows Others 2016F 5.1% 12.6% 5.6% 3.6% 57.5% 15.6% Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecasted 5 Note: Figures may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding-off errors. © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 31
  • 31. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Smartphone Futures 2012-2016 The smartphone business has been the single biggest revenue generating growth-story over the last 4 years as the rest of the tech sector suffers amid this seemingly endless recession. Subscriber growth has slowed dramatically in saturated markets, voice and text have reach commodity pricing and margins are constantly squeezed hard under consumer pressure, yet around the world the appetite for new smartphones continues to gain pace. Continuing to redefine the handset business, smartphones are fast becoming the device of choice for hundreds of millions of consumers, and 2012 is the year that worldwide smartphone shipments will top half a billion in one year. In this report you will learn that smartphone shipments reached 485 million in 2011, and that number will top 655 million in 2012, rising to over 1 billion smartphones per year by 2016. Please click here for more details. 32 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 32. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Chapter 6 Mobile Installed Base © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 33
  • 33. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Mobile Installed Base It is estimated that the number of smartphone users worldwide will cross the 3-billion mark by 2016, up from 770 million as at the end of 2011. However, non-smartphone users will continue to overshadow smartphone users year-on-year. While the number of new smartphones shipped every year are stealing a march over those for the non-smartphone category, the installed base of non-smartphones is still significant, and cannot be overlooked by players in the wireless ecosystem. Figure 25: Mobile Installed Base – Worldwide (In Million, 2011 & 2016F) Source: Portio Research Ltd. F – Forecast Smartphone users constituted only 12.9 percent of the total mobile user base at the end of 2011. This figure increased to 17.4 percent at the end of 2012. Looking forward, by the end of 2016, smartphone users will constitute more than one-third of the subscriber base; while close to 64 percent of worldwide subscribers will still not be using smartphones. The figure below shows the mobile installed base for the period end-2011 to end-2016. The nonsmartphone installed base will constitute around 64 percent of the worldwide mobile installed base at the end of year 2016. 34 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 34. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Figure 26: Mobile Installed Base Penetration by Type – Worldwide (In Percent, End 2011 – End 2016F) 120% Penetration (In Percent) 100% 12.9% 17.4% 22.2% 27.0% 31.8% 36.2% 77.8% 73.0% 68.2% 63.8% 2014F 2015F 2016F 80% 60% 40% 87.1% 82.6% 20% 0% 2011 2012E 2013F Year Non Smartphones Smartphones Source: Portio Research Ltd. E – Estimated , F – Forecast Between 2013 and the end of 2016, in Europe, North America and Latin America, we expect to see a decline in the installed base of non-smartphones. On the other hand, in the Asia Pacific region, and in the Middle East and Africa regions we expect to see a rise in the number of non-smartphone handset users. Of course, it is worth repeating, ALL regions will see a substantial rise in smartphone users. © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 35
  • 35. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 At the end of 2016, non-smartphones are expected to continue to be an important category on account of the sheer size of the market. This highlights the fact that the players – VAS vendors, MNOs and handset vendors – must continue to support and enlarge their product portfolio for both the smartphone and non-smartphone segments. Figure 27: Mobile Installed Base Trend – Worldwide (End 2011 – End 2016F) 100% 90% Non-Smartpone Penetration 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Bubble Area represents Smartphone Installed Base Worldwide 10% 0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Smartphone Penetration 2011 2012E 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F Source: Portio Research Ltd. E – Estimated , F – Forecast Figure 28: As smartphone penetration increases, so non-smartphone penetration decreases, and the size of the worldwide smartphone installed base grows. Smartphones are expected to dominate Europe after 2015. This is shown in the figure below. 36 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 36. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Figure 28: Mobile Installed Base Trend – Europe (End 2011 – End 2016F) 100% 90% Non-Smartpone Penetration 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Bubble Area represents Smartphone Installed Base in the Region 10% 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Smartphone Penetration 2011 2012E 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F Source: Portio Research Ltd. E – Estimated , F – Forecast Non-smartphones are expected to be the dominant devices in the vast Asia Pacific region until after the end of 2016 and beyond. Figure 29: Mobile Installed Base Trend – Asia Pacific (End 2011 – End 2016F) 100% 90% Non-Smartpone Penetration 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Bubble Area represents Smartphone Installed Base in the Region 10% 0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Smartphone Penetration 2011 2012E 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F Source: Portio Research Ltd. E – Estimated , F – Forecast © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 37
  • 37. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 In North America, smartphones are expected to dominate after 2013, as shown in the figure below. Figure 30: Mobile Installed Base Trend – North America (End 2011 – End 2016F) 100% 90% Non-Smartpone Penetration 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Bubble Area represents Smartphone Installed Bas in the Region 10% 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Smartphone Penetration 2011 2012E 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F Source: Portio Research Ltd. E – Estimated , F – Forecast 38 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 38. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Non-smartphones are expected to continue to be the dominant category in Latin America until after the end of 2016. Figure 31: Mobile Installed Base Trend – Latin America (End 2011 – End 2016F) 100% 90% Non-Smartpone Penetration 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Bubble Area represents Smartphone Installed Base in the Region 10% 0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Smartphone Penetration 2011 2012E 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F Source: Portio Research Ltd. E – Estimated , F – Forecast © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 39
  • 39. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 As shown below, non-smartphones will dominate in the Middle East & Africa until after end-2016. Figure 32: Mobile Installed Base Trend – Middle East & Africa (2011-2016F) 100% 90% Non-Smartpone Penetration 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Bubble Area represents Smartphone Installed Base in the Region 10% 0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Smartphone Penetration 2011 2012E 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F Source: Portio Research Ltd. E – Estimated , F – Forecast Worldwide Mobile Handset Installed Base 20122016 Analysing and segmenting the worldwide installed base of smartphones and non-smartphones from 2011 through 2016. Published 28th November 2012 This new market report offers you insight into the size of the installed base of mobile handsets around the world. Broken out by major geographical region, and for a number of specific countries, this report offers details on the number of active Smartphones in use around the world, and the number of active NonSmartphones in use around the world. With full forecasts through 2016.Most research studies report on handset shipments, which we offer in our Smartphone Futures 2012-2016 report. This report however, offers you essential and valuable data on the size of the cumulative total installed base of devices in operation worldwide. Please click here for more details. 40 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 40. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Chapter 7 Appendices © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 41
  • 41. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Appendices This market study has been written in a way that avoids excessive use of market acronyms (except where appropriate) and industry technical talk, as we have tried to keep the text open to all readers, not just those with in-depth knowledge of the world’s mobile markets. Because this study covers all geographical regions and many emerging markets, a great deal of the data contained within this study will potentially be of interest to investors, financial analysts, consultants, venture capitalists and others all around the world who do not work within the mobile industry itself every day of their lives. To many of these people, some of the industry technical talk and acronyms may be confusing, so we have attempted to write this study in a self-explanatory way that assumes little prior knowledge, but in doing this, some of the speech chosen may seem somewhat "obvious" to our more knowledgeable readers. We hope this offers the best possible solution to everyone, and we hope this does not cause any confusion or inconvenience. Where we have used technical terms or acronyms, we offer an explanation of those expressions below. 42 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 42. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Glossary 3G or third generation 3G is an International Telecommunication Union (ITU) specification for the third generation (analog cellular was the first generation and digital PCS 6 was the second generation) of mobile communication technology. Third generation Wireless Wide Area Networks (WWAN) communication systems are characterised by high-speed data rates (144 Kbps 7 to 2+ Mbps8) suitable for multimedia content. 3G technologies typically are packet-switched and use Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) technology to communicate. Examples of 3G include EDGE9, 1xRTT, HDR and W-CDMA.10 3G protocols in mobile telephony support higher data transmission rates, measured in Mbps, intended for applications other than voice. 3G support broadband and bandwidth applications, such as fullmotion video, video conferencing and Internet access. 3G as a Percentage 3G as a percentage refers to 3G subscribers as a percentage of total active mobile subscribers in a country. This represents the proportion of 3G subscribers in the total mobile subscriber base of a country. 3G Penetration 3G penetration refers to 3G subscribers as a percentage of total population of the country. This is similar to the term ‘mobile penetration’, which means total number of active mobile subscribers in a country as a percentage of total population of the country. 4G or fourth generation 4G or fourth generation WWAN communication systems are characterised by high-speed data rates at 20+ Mbps, suitable for high-resolution movies and television. The initial deployment of 4G communication systems is expected in 2006-2010. The proposed features of these systems include 100 Mbps speed, location sensing and self-tailoring to user needs. A2P Application-to-Peer: In the mobile messaging world A2P messages are defined as messages generated by an application and sent to subscribers, for example, the advertisements sent through SMS/MMS on subscribers’ handsets. Application Programming Interface (API) It is an interface implemented by a software program to communicate with other software. Operating systems and applications use API to determine the way to call or send requests to other software. Augmented Reality (AR) Augmented reality is the superimposition of virtual content over the real time environment. Virtual content includes digital graphics, audio and other sense enhancements, which are augmented to the real world by an AR device. 6 Personal Communications Service (PCS) Kilobits per second (Kbps) 8 Megabits per second (Mbps) 9 Enhanced Data for Global Evolution (EDGE) 10 Wideband Code Division Multiple Access (W-CDMA) 7 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 43
  • 43. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Average Revenue per User (ARPU) Measures the average monthly revenue generated for each customer unit, such as a handset or pager that an operator has in operation. Backhaul It refers to the process of transmitting voice and data traffic from a remote site to a central site. Churn Rate It is the rate at which the subscribers cancel their subscription with the existing operator and sign up with another operator. Cloud Computing Cloud computing is a technology involved in delivering hosted services on the Internet. It is based on client-server architecture, which includes user device with applications (such as Web browsers) to access the back end (various components, such as data storage devices, servers, etc.). The back end components perform specific tasks and interact with each other through standard application programming interfaces. Dongle Dongle is a portable device which is connected to a laptop or desktop and resembles a USB flash drive. It is widely used as a wireless broadband adapter. Dumb Pipes Dumb pipe refers to a mobile operator’s wireless network being used only to transfer data/bytes between the Internet and the user’s device. For an operator being a dumb pipe, there is a potential loss of revenue for the operator, since the operator is generating revenue only for the network data access and is not receiving any significant share in data/content service revenue. Facebook Penetration It is the Facebook user base expressed as a percentage of the total population of the country. Feature Phone Feature phones are handsets with browsers (primarily based on embedded J2ME and BREW platforms) to enable access to web based e-mail, and sometimes have embedded applications for social networking, instant messaging (IM) and mobile banking. These phones often come with high resolution cameras, GPS and innovative multimedia features. The major differentiating factor between a smartphone and a feature phone is that feature phones do not have an open Operating System (OS). The OS present in smartphones, through its Application Programming Interface (API), enables subscribers to install and remove third-party applications. Smartphones are better integrated with the handset's User Interface than Java applications. Freemium Freemium is a strategy adopted by application stores in which trial or lite versions of premium apps are offered for free or for a small charge; and users have an option to upgrade the apps with additional features by paying additional charges. GUI Graphical User Interface (GUI) is the front-end interface and navigation design of an application. This includes standard formats for representing text and graphics. GUIs have become the standard ways for interaction between users and digital devices. 44 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 44. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 i-mode i-mode is a proprietary packet-based information service for mobile handsets. It delivers information (such as mobile banking, and train timetable) to handsets and enables exchange of e-mail from mobile handsets on the PDC-P network. Launched in 1999 by NTT DOCOMO, i-mode is very popular in Japan (especially for e-mail and transfer of icons). IMS IMS IP Multimedia Subsystem is an extension of the GSM / 3GPP GPRS core Network. It uses SIP (Session Initiation Protocol) to set up, maintain and terminate packet-switched voice and multimedia sessions. Interoperability This is defined as the ability of a network to operate with other networks, such as two systems based on different protocols or technologies. In-app Payment In-app payment is the payment made by mobile user to get privileged features, services or digital goods while using mobile apps. The privileged feature may be moving from a free or lite version of an app to the full version. Instant Messaging (IM) Instant Messaging is an Internet-based service that alerts users when their friends or colleagues are online and allows them to communicate with each other in real-time through private online chat areas. With instant messaging, users create a list of other users with whom they want to communicate. When a user from their list is online, the service alerts them and enables an immediate contact with the other user. While instant messaging has primarily been a proprietary service offered by Internet service providers such as AOL and MSN, businesses are starting to employ instant messaging to increase employee efficiency and make expertise more readily available to employees. LTE Long-Term Evolution (LTE) is the standard being developed by 3GPP to achieve download rates of 100Mbps, and upload rates of 50Mbps for every 20MHz of spectrum and is termed as a 4G standard. LTE has support for bandwidths ranging from 1.25MHz to 20MHz. M2M Machine-to-Machine: M2M generally means the communication between machines. However, in the mobile world, it is sometimes defined as Mobile-to-Mobile, which basically refers to communication that involves only mobiles and not landlines. MNO Mobile Network Operator. MNO market penetration It is the mobile subscriber base of an MNO expressed as a percentage of total population of the country of operation. Mobile Internet Penetration Mobile Internet Penetration is described as mobile Internet users (of the specified market or region) as a percentage of the specified market or region’s mobile subscriber base. © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 45
  • 45. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Mobile penetration It is the mobile subscriber base in a country expressed as a percentage of its total population. Native Apps Native apps are mobile applications developed specifically to run on a particular operating system or device. Near Field Communication Near Field Communication (NFC) is a wireless communication technology which uses short-range high frequency to enable the exchange of data between devices in proximity with each other. The distance between the communicating devices has to be less than 10 centimetres. NFC-capable devices can communicate with smartcard readers as well as other NFC-capable devices. Over-the-Top Services Over-the-Top services refer to those services which are available to users over mobile networks without MNOs being involved in planning, provisioning and selling them.Within the mobile industry, OTT services are interchangably referred to as next generation services. P2P Peer-to-Peer: In the mobile messaging world, P2P messages are defined as messages exchanged between subscribers. These messages originate from and terminate to mobile subscribers’ handsets. SDK Software Development Kit is a set of tools used for the development of an application for a software package. Service Revenue Service revenues are the revenues earned by MNOs through the provision of services only, i.e. revenues after deducting revenues earned from sales of equipment/products. Smartphone A smartphone is a mobile handset which runs on operating system (OS) software and offers some of the capabilities of a PC. It provides a standardised interface and platform for application developers and is enabled with advanced features, such as e-mail, Internet and an e-book reader. Some of the other features expected from a smartphone include built-in full keyboard/external USB keyboard, powerful microprocessors, memory, built-in modem and large screens. The major differentiating factor between a smartphone and a feature phone is that an open Operating System (OS) is present in a smartphone. The OS, through its Application Programming Interface (API), enables subscribers to install and remove third-party applications. Smartphones are better integrated with the handset's User Interface than Java applications. Smartphone Penetration Smartphone penetration is described as smartphone users (of the specified market or region) as a percentage of the specified market or region's mobile subscriber base. USSD Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD) is a standard for transmitting information over GSM networks. It is primarily used to access the information on prepaid balances and similar details. 46 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 46. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 VAS Mobile operators offer various services which are not part of the basic voice offer. These services are availed off separately by the mobile subscribers. It includes services such as SMS, MMS, mobile email, mobile games, mobile music etc. These also include services such as WAP, voicemail, call diversion, etc. W-CDMA Wideband Code Division Multiple Access: The third generation standard offered to the International Telecommunication Union by GSM proponents. This is a 3G technology that increases data transmission rates in GSM systems by using CDMA instead of TDMA. W-CDMA has become the Direct Sequence mode in the ITU's 3G specification which includes the 1x Multi-Carrier mode (1x MC) and 3x Multi-Carrier mode (3x MC). 1x MC (formerly known as cdma2000) and 3x MC comprise the 3G upgrade paths for operators already using CDMA. Wi-Fi Wireless Fidelity: It is used to provide wireless local area network through enhanced interoperability of the network. Services such as Internet, VoIP phone access, and gaming, etc., can be provided using Wi-Fi. © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 47
  • 47. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Portio Research Classifications Geographical Regions: There is sometimes a difference in the way research firms classify the major geographical territories. At Portio Research, we follow 'obvious' geographical lines, but for the record, here are the regional definitions we follow, unless otherwise stated in the report: Western Europe: Standard classification includes Iceland and various islands Central and Eastern Europe: Includes standard list of Central and Eastern European countries, and the Baltic states, Balkans, Russia, Greece and Turkey Asia Pacific: Includes Australasia, the Indian Sub-Continent, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives and the Former Soviet Union Central Asian republics North America: Standard classification, including Hawaii and islands to the North Latin America: Includes all South and Central American countries including Mexico, The Caribbean and The West Indies Middle East: Includes Israel and all Middle Eastern countries East of Egypt, South of Turkey and West of Afghanistan Africa: Standard classification includes territories in Western Indian Ocean Mobile Subscribers Generally, we count active SIMs, and we consider active as being used within 3 months, but, of course there is some room for variance, depending on what figures operators themselves publish or report to us when we interview them. When running spot-checks on operator numbers, we are governed by the figures they give us, and as we are all aware, many individuals and companies around the world count their subscribers/subscriptions by a number of different criteria. We refer to "total subscribers" for a network/country or globally, as a count of the total number of active subscriptions those networks have, and as such this can cause a slight distortion of any country-penetration rate. Currency and Monetary Values All monetary values quoted in this report are in US Dollars as the most widely recognised benchmark internationally. The currency conversion has been done on the year average basis. Whilst researching global mobile markets, we use http://www.xe.com for all currency conversion calculations. 48 © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved
  • 48. Mobile Factbook – February 2013 Also available from Portio Research Limited Portio Research Ltd is a UK-based research company focussing on the mobile space, providing reports, handbooks, directories and database products. Mobile Applications Futures 2013-2017 Analysis and Growth Forecasts for the Worldwide Mobile Applications Market The apps business has finally ‘come of age’ and this worldwide success story is now growing fast. Apps generated an impressive USD 12 billion in full-year 2012, and in total 46 billion apps were downloaded in the year, taking the cumulative all-time total downloads since the app game began, to 83 billion. That is certainly a market in rapid growth, just look at those numbers again. The all-time cumulative total number of downloads stood at 37 billion at the end of 2011, but reached 83 billion by the end of 2012, more than doubling in one year. So in 2012, more apps were downloaded that in the previous 5 years all added together. Market doubling in 2013 This doubling is forecast to happen again in 2013. Our new forecasts show that 2013 will see 82 billion apps downloaded worldwide, taking the cumulative total to 165 billion apps by the end of the year. Revenues are set for ‘space rocket’ growth too, after 2012 saw full-year app revenues of USD 12 billion, in 2013 we forecast worldwide app revenues to reach USD 20.4 billion. From this doubling of the apps business in 2013, we forecast that downloads will continue to grow to exceed 200 billion per year by the end of full year 2017, and revenues in 2017 will reach 63.5 billion US dollars. This is impressive growth. While worldwide the mobile subscriber base is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 4.8 percent over the period 2012 to 2017, and annual handset shipments are expected to increase at a CAGR of 6.6 percent over the same time frame, apps downloads are forecast to grow at 35.9 percent CAGR. So what is driving this rapid growth in downloads? Our data shows that in mature markets, usage of apps per person is starting to level off, in Europe and North America, the number of apps downloaded per person is reaching a stable level. What’s driving the growth in the app download business is the rapid growth in smartphone and tablet sales. Smartphone shipments worldwide are expected to reach 823 million this year, in 2013. Smartphones accounted for around 41 percent of total handset shipments during 2012. This figure is expected to reach 46 percent during 2013, and more than half (56 percent) of total handset shipments will be smartphones by 2017. From 680 million smartphones shipped in 2012, we expect to see 1296 smartphones shipped in 2017, almost double the number. Similarly, tablet sales are enjoying explosive growth now. Tablet shipments are forecast to average a CAGR of 24 percent over the period 2012-2017, rising from 2012 shipments of 136 million, to 2013 shipments of 208 million, going on to 2017 shipments of 398 million devices. Due to this rapid growth in smartphone and tablet sales, we forecast that over the period 2012-2017, the number of apps users will grow at a CAGR of 29.8 percent, to reach 4.4 billion users by the end of 2017, 4 times as many apps users as there are today. This detailed new report explores all these issues, and delivers all these forecasts for each year to 2017, all in great detail to help you understand this massive growth opportunity. Please click here for more details. If you have any questions or if we can be of any assistance to you, please contact us by e-mail: info@portioresearch.com © 2013, Portio Research. All Rights Reserved 49

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