ATTRIBUTION ANDOPTIMISATIONJonathan Beeston, Global Marketing Director
GLOBAL PRESENCEThe biggest global performance marketers choose theEfficient Frontier platform•$1 Billion in annual online marketing spend under management•Working with 250 leading global marketers•Over 150 million active keywords•5 Million bids set, 100+ million models processed daily•50+ Full-time engineers, 40 Master’s Degrees, 7 PhD’s•1 Patent granted, 6 patents firstname.lastname@example.org
REPRESENTATIVE OF GLOBAL CLIENTS FINANCE TRAVEL RETAIL & AUTOS MEDIA AGENCY & OTHER
“All models are wrong. Some are useful.” George Box 3
WHAT ARE USERS DOING ONLINE? Date Type Channel Ad/Keyword 6/25/2010 16:52 Click Yahoo Search “london hotels” 6/25/2010 16:56 Lead - - 6/27/2010 13:42 Impression Doubleclick AdX Creative_disp_1.gif 6/27/2010 13:42 Impression Doubleclick AdX Creative_disp_1.gif 6/27/2010 13:47 Impression Rightmedia Creative_disp_1.gif 6/27/2010 13:56 Impression Rightmedia Creative_disp_1.gif 7/1/2010 13:42 Click Facebook Creative_FB_1.gif 7/1/2010 15:30 Impression Doubleclick AdX Creative_disp_1.gif 7/2/2010 11:42 Impression Rightmedia Creative_disp_1.gif 7/2/2010 14:05 Click Google Adwords “hotel in london” 7/2/2010 15:05 Conversion• On average there are 4-6 touchpoints across before conversion
VALUE DISTRIBUTION ACROSS TOUCHPOINTS Display Paid Paid Direct Facebook Conversion View Search Search Website 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1
EF EVENT ATTRIBUTION MODELS 1LastFirstEqualLastMoreFirstMoreCustom
MULTI CHANNEL ATTRIBUTION: INSIGHTSChannel Equal credit Last Click Bayesian ModelSEM 35% 25% 38%SEO 25% 50% 22%Facebook 10% 5% 12%Display 30% 20% 28% • Changing attribution changes your budget allocation • Understand the impact before you make the change • Doesn’t really explain interaction effects between channels • What about time between interactions? 9
WHAT IS CROSS CHANNEL OPTIMISATION?PROBLEM• Determine the right way of spending across all media channels, accounting for interaction effects across channels to maximise my ROI.SOLUTION• Dynamically model all cross-channel interaction effects and apply optimisation algorithms to determine the correct media mix.
CROSS CHANNEL OPTIMISATION: THE VISION Dynamically model € Facebook € Biddable Budget Display BidsBudget: €€€€€€Multiple Goals: €€(1) Max Revenue SEM(2) >10,000 Leads €€€€ TV Cross Channel Modeling
CROSS CHANNEL OPTIMISATION: ONLINE Total Marketing Budget: $12,000 12
SEARCH + TVCollect SEM and TV data Determine Revenue attribution for the multi- point multi-channel funnelBuild TV Build SEMModels models Cross Channel Optimization using portfolio theoryCross-channel Efficient Frontier Objective: Given an overall budget, find the best way to bid across search and TV to get the maximum return for the advertising dollar.
CROSS CHANNEL OPTIMISATION • Our models show that the optimal budget allocation of TV and SEM spend in July would have resulted in 5% lift.
PRESS + SEARCH• Typically 6-7 weeks of improved search performance 16
IN SUMMARY• First pre-requisite: Unified Tracking Platform• Attribution is a partial solution• Attribution + Algorithmic Optimisation is the solution for answering the media mix question• This is a young field! There’s a long way to go! 17