20090422 Dinokeng Presentation Master V7 1


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Three future scenarios for South Africa by Dinokeng

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  • Space for engagement
  • Diverse group of civic leaders - Engaged in citizenship and the future
  • 20090422 Dinokeng Presentation Master V7 1

    1. 1. 3 FUTURES FOR SOUTH AFRICA Working Draft (v7.1) April 2009
    2. 2. PURPOSE OF DINOKENG <ul><li>“ To create a space and language for open, reflective and reasoned strategic conversation among South Africans about possible futures for the country, and the opportunities, risks and choices these futures present.” </li></ul>WORKING DRAFT
    3. 3. DINOKENG PARTICIPANTS Convenors (Members of the Scenario Team) Scenario Team Secretariat Sponsors Mamphela Ramphela Graça Machel Vincent Maphai Rick Menell Njongongkulu Ndungane Bob Head Miriam Altman Frans Baleni Ann Bernstein Nkosinathi Biko Cheryl Carolus Angela Coetzee Ryan Coetzee Paul Hanratty Haniff Hoosen Moemedi Kepadisa Reuel Khoza Kallie Kriel Antjie Krog Mary Malete Daniel Mminele Namhla Mniki Aaron Motsoaledi Jay Naidoo Yogan Naidoo Maite Nkoana-Mashabane Thandi Nontenja Thami ka Plaatjie Sonja Sebotsa Raenette Taljaard Mathatha Tsedu Sim Tshabalala Musa Zondi Sarah Babb Matt Bland Pippa Green Adam Kahane Itumaleng Mahabane Alayne Mannion Debra Marsden Ishmael Mkhabela Yvonne Muthien Old Mutual and Nedbank WORKING DRAFT
    4. 4. <ul><li>The team is diverse: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>It represents a broad spectrum of South African society. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The members have different backgrounds, experiences and perspectives. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>They did not agree on everything. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>But they were drawn together and guided by what they have in common: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A deep concern that things are not what they should be in South Africa. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A desire to contribute to the construction of a sustainable future. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A commitment to the values of the Constitution. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>An acknowledgement of the heritage of our past. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Together, this diversity and shared intent is a core strength of Dinokeng. </li></ul>WHAT INFORMED THE SCENARIO TEAM’S WORK WORKING DRAFT
    5. 5. DINOKENG PROCESS PHASE I Scenario Team PHASE II Citizens and leaders Diverging Emerging Converging Workshops, research and writing Private engagement with key stakeholders Broad public engagement 08/2008 05/2009 WORKING DRAFT
    6. 6. <ul><li>Since 1994 we have made great gains but also serious mistakes. </li></ul><ul><li>We face severe economic and social challenges, exacerbated by a global economic crisis. </li></ul><ul><li>We are at risk of disintegration and decline. </li></ul><ul><li>We are at a critical moment of choice: a crossroads. </li></ul><ul><li>Our state is too weak to address these challenges by itself. </li></ul><ul><li>We can address our critical challenges if and only if citizens and leaders from all sectors (including the state) engage actively and collaboratively. </li></ul>SOUTH AFRICA IS AT A CROSSROADS WORKING DRAFT
    7. 7. OUR ACHIEVEMENTS WORKING DRAFT <ul><li>POLITICAL </li></ul><ul><li>Established Parliamentary democracy </li></ul><ul><li>Respected Constitution </li></ul><ul><li>Political pluralism </li></ul><ul><li>Regular free and fair elections </li></ul><ul><li>Independent Judiciary </li></ul><ul><li>Civilian control over army </li></ul><ul><li>Independent and vigilant Media </li></ul><ul><li>Culture of Human Rights </li></ul><ul><li>ECONOMIC </li></ul><ul><li>Macro-Economic stability </li></ul><ul><li>Fiscal & Monetary prudence </li></ul><ul><li>Progressive economic reforms </li></ul><ul><li>Sustained economic growth rates </li></ul><ul><li>Net New Jobs = 3.5 million </li></ul><ul><li>Reduced unemployment (30% to 23%) </li></ul><ul><li>Reduced international debt </li></ul><ul><li>Improved credit ratings </li></ul><ul><li>SOCIAL </li></ul><ul><li>Diverse multicultural society </li></ul><ul><li>Increased social expenditure </li></ul><ul><li>Increased access to services </li></ul><ul><li>Expanded Public Works & Housing (3m) </li></ul><ul><li>Poverty alleviation - Social Grants to 12.4 million </li></ul><ul><li>Decrease in violent contact crimes </li></ul><ul><li>EDUCATION & HEALTH </li></ul><ul><li>Increased Education & Health Budgets </li></ul><ul><li>Increased access to schools and universities </li></ul><ul><li>Improved school infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Increased access to Primary Health Care </li></ul><ul><li>Improved child immunization - now 85% </li></ul>
    8. 8. OUR CHALLENGES WORKING DRAFT <ul><li>POLITICAL </li></ul><ul><li>Single party dominance </li></ul><ul><li>Weak, fragmented opposition </li></ul><ul><li>Weak leadership in all sectors </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of state capacity and accountability </li></ul><ul><li>Weak sense of common nationhood </li></ul><ul><li>ECONOMIC </li></ul><ul><li>Global economic crisis & declining domestic growth </li></ul><ul><li>High unemployment & skills crisis </li></ul><ul><li>High Current Account deficit - 7.3% of GDP (Q2 08) </li></ul><ul><li>Reliance on portfolio investments </li></ul><ul><li>- R107b in 2007 & Declining FDI R40 billion in 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>Volatile currency & declining exports </li></ul><ul><li>SOCIAL </li></ul><ul><li>Persistent poverty - 40% of households extremely poor </li></ul><ul><li>Increase in racial inequality - Gini Coefficient 0.63 (2006) </li></ul><ul><li>High youth unemployment - 50% among 18-24 yrs </li></ul><ul><li>High prevalence of HIV/Aids among Youth </li></ul><ul><li>- 30% among women aged 15-19 yrs </li></ul><ul><li>Drug abuse, domestic violence among Youth </li></ul><ul><li>Weakening social capital & social cohesion </li></ul><ul><li>Continued racial polarisation - low inter-group trust </li></ul><ul><li>High levels of violence against women & children </li></ul><ul><li>EDUCATION & HEALTH </li></ul><ul><li>“ Number Last” in Maths & Science literacy </li></ul><ul><li>Nearly half of schools still lack critical infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Acute skills shortages </li></ul><ul><li>High school drop-out rates (750,000 pa) </li></ul><ul><li>- only 29% leave with Matric Certificate </li></ul><ul><li>Decreasing life expectancy - from 63 to 50 (1990- 2007) </li></ul><ul><li>4 th highest prevalence of HIV/Aids & TB in World </li></ul><ul><li>Increase in maternal mortality </li></ul><ul><li>- 166 per 100,000 live births in 2003, from 80 in 1997 . </li></ul>
    9. 9. OUR MOST CRITICAL CHALLENGES <ul><li>Education </li></ul><ul><li>Unemployment and poverty </li></ul><ul><li>Safety and security </li></ul><ul><li>Health </li></ul><ul><li>If we don’t get things right in these areas, it will be hard for the country to </li></ul><ul><li>succeed at anything. </li></ul>WORKING DRAFT
    10. 10. WHAT UNDERLIES THESE CHALLENGES <ul><li>Pre 1994 legacies: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>We have inherited deep structural flaws in our economic, social and political systems. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>We have inherited a culture of mediocrity and entitlement from the apartheid and liberation cultures. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Three inter-related trends that have manifested themselves since 1994: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A citizenry that is disengaging and becoming increasingly dependent on the state. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Weak and diminishing state capacity and an unaccountable government. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A leadership that reflects a culture of materialism and self-interest, and a lack of ethics and unaccountability. </li></ul></ul>WORKING DRAFT
    11. 11. WE ARE AT A CROSSROADS <ul><li>How can we address our critical challenges before they become time bombs that destroy our achievements? </li></ul><ul><li>Three possible ways this question can be answered; three possible paths into the future: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>- Scenario 1: Walk Apart </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>- Scenario 2: Walk Behind </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>- Scenario 3: Walk Together </li></ul></ul>WORKING DRAFT
    12. 12. WHAT ARE SCENARIOS? <ul><li>Scenarios are not predictions; they describe possible pathways into a future; our future will not necessarily be purely one or the other. </li></ul><ul><li>Scenarios must be relevant, challenging, plausible and clear. </li></ul><ul><li>The seeds of the future exist in the present - but our future is not pre-ordained; our future depends on the choices we make today. </li></ul>WORKING DRAFT
    13. 13. SCENARIO 1: WALK APART 2009 - 2011 2012 - 2014 2015 - 2017 2018 – 2020 TOMORROW IS LIKE YESTERDAY <ul><li>Ruling party retains majority. </li></ul><ul><li>Global crisis leads to declining investment, growth and tax. </li></ul><ul><li>Crisis pact between government, business and labour fails. </li></ul><ul><li>Government expands the Public Works programme to create jobs. </li></ul><ul><li>Citizens get restless and government increases social grants. </li></ul>TINKERING AROUND THE EDGES THE SHADOWS LENGTHEN DECAY AND A BIG STICK <ul><li>Cronyism and corruption in government appointments and tenders. </li></ul><ul><li>Education and health care deteriorate. </li></ul><ul><li>Rift between government and citizens. </li></ul><ul><li>Government increases social grants and civil servant pay: social grant recipients now outnumber taxpayers 7 to 1. </li></ul><ul><li>Ruling party wins elections with reduced majority. </li></ul><ul><li>Crime increases: private security guards outnumber police 3 to 1. </li></ul><ul><li>Criminal justice system becomes more inefficient because of cronyism and corruption. </li></ul><ul><li>Unions lobby government to increase the minimum wage. </li></ul><ul><li>Investment shrinks further; unemployment grows. </li></ul><ul><li>Service delivery fails; alternative modes of delivery develop and shadowy forces become more powerful. </li></ul><ul><li>The cracks widen; budget deficit balloons; delivery worsens. </li></ul><ul><li>Elites buy their way out and poor people lose patience. </li></ul><ul><li>Gangs, self-appointed mayors, and taxi associations rule local areas. </li></ul><ul><li>“ Strongman” wins election, outcome questioned. </li></ul><ul><li>Protests spiral and government declares state of emergency. </li></ul>WORKING DRAFT
    14. 14. WALK APART: WHAT THE PAPERS SAY No accord yet in sight for crisis group Johannesburg, 2010 Billions more to Public Works Cape Town, 2011 Stellenbosch V-C bows to pressure to go Cape Town, 2012 Public Works millions missing Pretoria, 2012 Commuters stranded after lines bombed, buses torched Johannesburg, 2014 Drugs run dry in Mpumulanga clinic Nelspruit, 2015 Budget 2015: Huge rise in social welfare Cape Town, 2015 Drug trade finds new avenue in face of state failure Richards Bay, 2017 Three dead in battle over “tax” Polokwane, 2017 Big victory claim by ruling party Durban, 2019 35 gunned down in jobs protest Durban, 2020 WORKING DRAFT
    15. 15. MESSAGE OF WALK APART <ul><li>If we fail to address our critical economic and social challenges and to strengthen the state, citizens will disengage further. </li></ul><ul><li>Pockets of alternative control and delivery by unaccountable groups outside the state will develop. </li></ul><ul><li>Our country will decline and disintegrate rapidly. </li></ul>WORKING DRAFT
    16. 16. SCENARIO 2: WALK BEHIND <ul><li>Ruling party retains majority. </li></ul><ul><li>Global crisis means declining investment, growth and tax revenues. </li></ul><ul><li>Government commits to continued investment in large infrastructure projects. </li></ul><ul><li>Government boosts state capacity through greater coordination and training . </li></ul><ul><li>Expanded Public Works programmes create more unskilled jobs . </li></ul><ul><li>Job losses mount as global crisis bites harder; government spreads social welfare net. </li></ul><ul><li>Government, increases tax rates, freezes civil service wages. </li></ul><ul><li>National Economic Summit results in Growth and Investment Accord. </li></ul><ul><li>Election campaign run on “pro-poor” platform. </li></ul><ul><li>Ruling party victory taken as mandate for stronger state intervention in economy. </li></ul><ul><li>Government accelerates large-scale infrastructure programme to boost development. </li></ul><ul><li>Government feels skills shortage as it tries to develop high-tech SOEs – “winners”. </li></ul><ul><li>Improvement of skills through better education and artisan training is prioritised. </li></ul><ul><li>Some “winners” become “losers”, with heavy costs to the fiscus. </li></ul><ul><li>Prescribed asset laws to force private investment in large projects. </li></ul><ul><li>Prescribed asset laws alienate business, investment contracts and unemployment worsens. </li></ul><ul><li>State borrows at high interest rates to fund growing deficit. </li></ul><ul><li>Election run on “Growth and Redistribution” ticket. </li></ul><ul><li>Country gets IMF loan conditional on sharp cut-back in state expenditure. </li></ul><ul><li>Widespread discontent and protests: government cracks down. </li></ul>2009 - 2011 2012 - 2014 2015 - 2017 2018 – 2020 PUSH FOR DEVELOPMENT GLOBAL CLOUDS DARKEN STATE PICKS “WINNERS” THE TIDE TURNS WORKING DRAFT
    17. 17. WALK BEHIND: WHAT THE PAPERS SAY Key ministries to report to DP, to fast-track Skills development Pretoria, 2010 Massive boost for PBMR, Eskom Pretoria, 2011 Business outcry over prescribed assets Johannesburg, 2015 Social grants, UIF get big boost in budget Cape Town, 2012 Breakthrough accord on economy Pretoria, 2014 New bid to recruit skills Cape Town, 2016 Unions threaten clash with government over performance plans Johannesburg, 2017 Budget deficit at highest point since 1994 Cape Town, 2018 Police, residents in battle over social grants Dutywa, 2020 WORKING DRAFT
    18. 18. MESSAGE OF WALK BEHIND <ul><li>State-led development requires the capacity for planning, coordination and delivery. </li></ul><ul><li>Large-scale state projects require heavy borrowings. </li></ul><ul><li>State directed investment weakens private initiative and state control creates citizen dependency. </li></ul><ul><li>Pervasive state intervention and control is therefore unsustainable. </li></ul>WORKING DRAFT
    19. 19. SCENARIO 3: WALK TOGETHER <ul><li>Ruling party retains majority. </li></ul><ul><li>Global crisis means declining investment, growth and tax revenues. </li></ul><ul><li>Crisis pact wobbles along. </li></ul><ul><li>Service delivery deteriorates. </li></ul><ul><li>Pockets of citizen groups take action over health, education, crime. </li></ul><ul><li>Health-care and parent associations spread through the country. </li></ul><ul><li>Government promises action against incompetent managers and civil servants. </li></ul><ul><li>Improvements in service delivery. </li></ul><ul><li>Ruling party runs election campaign on ticket of competent government. </li></ul><ul><li>A weakened ruling party, returned to power, forms alliance with other parties. </li></ul><ul><li>Economy begins slow recovery but insufficient to deal with deepening poverty. </li></ul><ul><li>A “Citizens’ Charter” is born. </li></ul><ul><li>A formal social pact emerges: it includes political parties, labour, business, citizens’ groups. </li></ul><ul><li>Business shoulders more responsibility in education, infrastructure, health. </li></ul><ul><li>Trade unions back measures to combat youth employment. </li></ul><ul><li>Citizens work with government to monitor education, health, and crime. </li></ul>2009 - 2011 2012 - 2014 2015 - 2017 2018 – 2020 THE BLEAK YEARS CITIZENS DEMAND MORE A SOCIAL PACT EMERGES BUILDING ONE NATION <ul><li>Government focuses on delivering core public goods. </li></ul><ul><li>Business invests more, employment rises. </li></ul><ul><li>International investor confidence buoyed by co-operative governance. </li></ul><ul><li>Citizens lobby for more accountability from politicians. </li></ul><ul><li>Voting system changed so politicians are accountable directly to voters. </li></ul>WORKING DRAFT
    20. 20. WALK TOGETHER: WHAT THE PAPERS SAY Patients protest drugs shortage Manguzi, 2011 Health is sick, say protesting patients Durban, 2012 Bell tolls on education failures Johannesburg, 2014 Health minister to meet patients’ groups Pretoria, 2013 Pact needed for delivery Cape Town, 2015 Votes battle goes to Concourt Johannesburg, 2018 The birth of the Citizens Charter Johannesburg, 2016 Special Feature WORKING DRAFT
    21. 21. MESSAGE OF WALK TOGETHER <ul><li>We can address our critical economic and social challenges only if civil society, business, labour and the state engage and cooperate to increase accountability, build the capacity of the state, deliver core public services, and develop a common identity and nationhood. </li></ul><ul><li>We can succeed if and only if citizens and leaders from all sectors rise above their narrow self-interests and contribute purposefully to building our nation. </li></ul>WORKING DRAFT
    22. 22. COMPARISON OF THE SCENARIOS CAPACITY OF THE STATE Walk Behind 2020 CHARACTER OF CIVIL SOCIETY Ineffective Effective Engaged Disengaged Walk Together 2020 Walk Apart 2020 Corrupt & ineffective state Distrusting & self-protective citizenry Interventionist & directive state Dependent & compliant citizenry Collaborative & enabling state Engaged & active citizenry 2009 WORKING DRAFT
    23. 23. DINOKENG PHASE II <ul><li>PURPOSE: To create a space and language for open, reflective and reasoned strategic conversation among South Africans about possible futures for the country, and the opportunities, risks and choices these futures present. </li></ul><ul><li>DESIRED RESULTS: I ndividual citizens and leaders at all levels will: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Understand the three scenarios, and the opportunities and risks these pose. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Answer the question: What can I and we do to respond to these scenarios and to build a better future for our country? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Act on their answer, in alliance with others. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>MEANS OF ENGAGEMENT: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Briefings, presentations and workshops for leading individuals, groups and organisations. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Supporting mass communications. </li></ul></ul>WORKING DRAFT
    24. 24. NEXT STEPS <ul><li>The three scenarios suggest three different possible futures for South Africa. </li></ul><ul><li>We are standing at a crossroads; each one of us, citizens and leaders, must choose how we walk forward. </li></ul><ul><li>Through the choices each one of us make, we will create our nation’s future. </li></ul><ul><li>What will you choose to do? When? How? With whom? </li></ul><ul><li>What will your next step be? </li></ul>WORKING DRAFT