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Presentation   climate change adaptation
 

Presentation climate change adaptation

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  • The world has began to witness the consequences of climate change with the increased frequency of Tsunami, cyclones and devastating floods which is seriously affecting its helpless populace and leaving them in limitless miseries. For instance, Japan Tsunami, 2011 and Tsunami in Aceh, Indonesia, 2004, Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh coast, 2007.
  • Being a delta Bangladesh stands to be the worst affected one. Particularly the coastal regions comprising 28% of total population are the most vulnerable of all and identified as an ‘extreme vulnerable coastal delta’ where more than one million population is estimated to be displaced by current sea level trends within 2050 (Ericson et al.,2006). The scenario will be much worse as indicated by UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) where they predicted 15 million of climate refugees for 1m rise in local sea-level (IPCC, 2007). The resettlement of these displaces people (climate refugees) will pose a serious problem for densely populated country like Bangladesh (Mowla & Choudhury, 2011).
  • Historically coastal settlements of Bangladesh are exposed to the risk of different geo-climatic hazard like cyclone, tidal inundation, water logging, salinity and erosion. The impending threats of climate change and sea level rise in near future, as predicted, will further intensify the severity and extent of the hazard including permanent inundation coupled with increased salinity and erosion due to intensification of tidal action and periodic cyclone.
  • It has been now widely accepted that settlements in the low elevation coastal zone (LECZ: 0-10m) will be affected largely by the anticipated sea level change .The extent of impact of sea level rise in Bangladesh was viewed at first by UNEP (1989). It was speculated that 1.5 m SLR by 2030 would be affected 16 % of land area (22,000 Sq. km) with 15 % of total population (17 million people). Due to uncertainty in UNEP study, World Bank (2000) has also studied on that. It speculated that 10 cm, 25cm and 1 m rise in sea level by 2020, 2050 and 2100; affecting 2%, 4% and 17.5% of total land mass respectively.
  • A comprehensive study has been conducted on the impact of relative sea level rise on coastal area of Bangladesh jointly by IWM and CEGIS (2007) (fig1). In the study the physical impact of relative sea level rise for the year 2020, 2050 and 2080 assessed using the mathematical modeling tools MIKE 11 and MIKE 21. The result shows that about 13% more area (469,000 ha) will be inundated in the monsoon due to 62 cm sea level rise by the year 2080 . The most vulnerable areas are the areas without polders like Patuakhali, Pirojpur, Barisal, Jhalokathi, Bagerhat, Narail. But problem will be more severe in the area protected by polder. About 32% area will be deeply inundated due to overtopping of embankment
  • As a consequence affected population will force to migrate to upper land especially in dense urban center which may create serious social and environmental crisis in the cities. To arrest mass exodus of population and reduce the vulnerability of coastal settlement to climate change, it thus calls for preemptive response in settlement planning and design.
  • Of the two fundamental responses to climate change: mitigation and adaptation, adaptation is often considered as the most viable and manageable responses to contend with, especially for the least developing country like Bangladesh.
  • The Netherlands has a history of living close to water and of coping with its caprices. That means living on land protected by dykes, on mounds, on shore or floating. Presently, about one quarter of the Netherlands’ total territory lies below sea level and are protected by dykes. At Oosterschelde, a high-tech bridge was completed in 1986 that can quickly be turned into a dyke Only recently have floating homes been eligible as a significant solution to Holland’s modern housing needs. 
  • Despite of extreme vulnerability, a close scrutiny of historical trends and inundation risk map for future change clarify the fact that there do exist zones in the coastal area which can be considered relatively safe from the risk.
  • Despite of extreme vulnerability, a close scrutiny of historical trends and inundation risk map for future change clarify the fact that there do exist zones in the coastal area which can be considered relatively safe from the risk.

Presentation   climate change adaptation Presentation climate change adaptation Presentation Transcript

  • Paper ID: CCIA 12011RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE: BANGLADESH EXPERIENCE Authors: Qazi Azizul Mowla and Saimum Kabir
  • Tsunami in Japan, 2011
  • Deltas and Megadeltas: hotspots for vulnerabilityOf the 40 deltas globally, the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta of Bangladesh is identified as an ‘extremevulnerable’ coastal delta Source : IPCC ,Fourth Assessment Report, 2007
  • Aftermath of the 1991 cycloneThe photograph below, taken by USAF Staff Sergeant Val Gempis
  • Aftermath of the Cyclone Sidr, 2007Ref: Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh ; Damage , Loss and Need Assessment
  • Water logged area in southwest region
  • Potential impact of sea level rise as predicted by IPCC 2000 2100Year IPCC (TAR) SMRC NAPA WARPO Total land inundation ( %) 2001 2004 2005 20062030 14cm 18 cm 14 cm 14 cm2050 32cm 30 cm 32 cm 32 cm2100 88cm 60 cm 88 cm 88 cm
  • Climate Refugee: the inevitable reality of coming decadesWithin 2050 more then one million population is estimated to be displaced by current sea level risetrends to (Ericson et al., 2006) and the scenario will be much worst as indicated by IPCC wherethey predict 15 million of climate refugees for 1m rise in local sea-level
  • Two folds impact of sea level rise (SLR) on human settlement:Firstly, loss of habitable land and ecosystem due to permanentinundation in directly affected area;Secondly, the rehabilitation of the displaced or migrantpopulation will exert additional pressure to the settlement inrelatively safe area.
  • Adaptation is the most viable and manageable response to climate change .
  • ADAPTATIONThe term adaptation can be defined as adjustment or coping mechanism withits surrounding that helps improve the quality of life under strenuouscircumstances (Mowla & Zereen, 2005).It thus refers to changes in processes, practices or structures to moderate oroffset potential damages or to take advantage of opportunities associated withchanges. It involves adjustments to reduce the vulnerability of communities,regions or activities to climate change and variability (IPCC, 2001).Various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including anticipatory and reactiveadaptation, private and public adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation(IPCC TAR, 2001 a)
  • STRUCTURAL FORMS OF ADPTATIONBiljsma et al. (1996) identified three structural forms of adaptation to sea-level rise, which wereadopted by IPCC (2001) comprising: Protection; Accommodation; and Retreat. LINE OF REFRENCE PRESENT DAY PROTECTION Protect the land from submergence, population cluster and natural resources by constructing sea walls, embankments etc ACCOMODATION Continuation f the present occupance with some adjustments through no structural and structural measures RETREAT Abandon structure, relocation of population, new set back distances from the shore line for future development
  • Adaptation examples: Netherland ExperienceProtective measure Accommodative measure
  • Adaptation examples: Netherland ContextFloating Neighborhood at IJburg, Amsterdam , Netherlands
  • Adaptation examples in Bangladesh : Autonomous measures : Waterlogged and flood prone area Practice horticultureRaising the plinth above in the courtyard Building house on stilts Adopted permanent material Store fuel wood on Machanflood level Earth infill Brick lining Cement plaster finish
  • Adaptation examples in Bangladesh : Autonomous measures : Cyclone prone area Layered plantation aroundAdoption of Low angle Hip roof Adoption of Deep plan Window at lee ward side Attic space for storage homestead
  • Adaptation examples in Bangladesh : Planned measures Regional level Mangrove afforestation Community level Embankment construction Household level Transitional Core shelter Multipurpose community shelter Implementation of TRM Permanent Core shelter Neighborhood on stilts
  • Local response to climate change : Nucleated Dyke Settlement at Urir CharThe settlement layout was kept open ended to allow growthas and when needed subject to a maximum of about 15 to20 clusters (baries) per village. Natural process of landformation was allowed to work and afforestration wasproposed on the seaward side of the island.
  • Adaptation Practices Present state Climate related stress Comments Planned AutonomousCoastal embankments and Killas √ Protection from flood 6000 km of embankments and storm surge and polder schemes , have negative side effectCoastal ‘green belt’ or Afforestation √ Protection from mangrove planting alongprojects cyclone, erosion and nearly 9000 km of the storm surge shorelineImplementation of TRM in rotational √ to remove water Currently at experimentalbasis logging phaseMultipurpose community shelter √ Protection from 2500 cyclone shelters, cyclone surge and flood multipurpose community shelterhousing and settlement √ √ Flood , cyclone, water Mostly autonomous with logging , erosion very few planned interventionInnovation in Domestic Agriculture √ √ Water logging and Floating bed (BAIRA)and Plantation practices cyclone cultivation, ring gardening: planned measures in water logged areaRain-water harvesting √ √ Salinity intrusion, Not equally practice by the DroughtClimate change policies;National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA), 2005Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan, 2008Consideration of climate change in the National Water Management
  • RECOMMENDATIONS1. Adaptation by protectionIn foreshore area and offshore islands of exposed coast where cyclone andassociated storm surges is the prime risk:Mangrove afforestation should be given priority to create a shelter belt.Consideration should be given to selection of species, layering of plantationand width of the shelter belt as these are the factors that determine theeffectiveness of a shelter belt.Social forestry should be promoted involving participation of local peopleunder the scope of ‘Coastal Green belt’ project.Plantation of selected species at different layer around the homestead inresponse to cyclonic wind is a local practice adopted by the householdmostly in older part of the settlement. This practice of plantation is provedeffective and should be equally adopted by the community as a whole.
  • RECOMMENDATIONS1. Adaptation by protectionIn polder area of interior coast where water logging is the key issue,TRM in rotational basis following the indigenous method of allowingnatural sedimentation in low land and beel area is probably the best optionfor removing water logging. But implementation of TRM is often difficultbecause of social reason as inhabitants need to let their own land andhomestead area for implementing the project. However, priority should begiven to derive more practical solution considering greater benefits ratherthan few beneficial.
  • RECOMMENDATIONS2. Adaptation by accommodationCoastal people living in moderate and low risk zone should be encouragedto adapt in place by altering their settlement pattern.The concept of Urir char Model Settlement should be adopted inforeshore areas and offshore islands in response to future risk wheresettlements are elevated on stilts and nucleated around a fresh waterreservoir.Indigenous coping measures to reduce vulnerability to existing climaterelated hazards can also serve as means and guide for in situ adaption toclimate change.Community based adaptation must be encouraged where NGO mightplay a vital role.Institutional initiative should be taken for the development of theinfrastructure & better access to services and shelter at community level.
  • RECOMMENDATIONS3. Adaptation by retreatPeople lives in high and highest risk zone, where problems like permanentinundation, erosion are acute, should be encouraged to resettle in the saferzonePlanned densification should be promoted in the safer zones (since theaffected area is predominantly rural and sparse in nature where density isyet lower than the national average and far below than urban area) under thescope of regional and national level adaptive measure.
  • RECOMMENDATIONS3. Adaptation by retreatThe process should start from• Preparation of master plan for vulnerability zoning at coastal area toidentify safer zone within the region where planned densification can takeplace.• The existing linear and semi dispersal settlements should be altered tomore compact pattern of cluster settlement to encourage community basedliving where multipurpose community shelter become the spatial focus.• Construction of two storied house will give more scope foraccommodation in safer area.• Introduction of low cost housing through local NGO’s can be a useful aidin resettlement process.
  • CONCLUSION• The successful implementation of adaptive measure specially at local levelwill increase the livability in risk area and will contribute significantly inreducing out migration .• In recent past people were responding well in hostile climatic effectsituation like Sidr, Aila or Beel Dakatia , their experience may be shared inthe SLP and CR management.• National climate change policies and action plan should be revised in orderto provide more importance and significance to issues related to in situadaption to minimize migrant flow to the cities.• It should be noted that whatever strategies will taken it should responsive,contextual and not against the cultural norms of the inhabitants.
  • CONCLUSIONThe success of any adaptive measure will depend on thesocial acceptance of the measure and active participation of the community during its implementation.