John Girard's Talk - ICKE 2013
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John Girard's Talk "Who Knows, Wins" at the International Conference on Knowledge Economy in Cape Town, South Africa, 29 October 2013

John Girard's Talk "Who Knows, Wins" at the International Conference on Knowledge Economy in Cape Town, South Africa, 29 October 2013

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  • 1.  www.johngirard.net/1301   Knowledge  Shared  in  Knowledge  Squared   c. 350 BC 17th Century 1950s 1990s Aristotle Sir Francis Bacon Michael Polanyi Carla O’Dell 2000s Jeff Howe Classification of Knowledge Aristotle History  of  KM   www.johngirard.net   Google  Trends:  Knowledge  Management     1                                                                                  john@johngirard.net  
  • 2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasco_da_Gama   Google  Trends:  Knowledge  Management   Vasco  da  Gama  -­‐  1497   For  at  the  same  �me  Aristotle  was   considering  the  categoriza�on  of   knowledge,  Sun  Tzu  wrote,  “If  you  know   your  enemy  and  know  yourself,  you   need  not  fear  the  results  of  a  hundred   ba�les.”       And,  at  the  same  �me,  that  knowledge   management  gurus  were  selling  their   wares  to  business  leaders  across  North   America,  we  heard  General  Tommy   Franks,  saying  “...  as  has  been  the  case   since  Sun  Tzu  said  it,  precise  knowledge   of  self  and  precise  knowledge  of  the   threat  leads  to  victory.”   故曰:知彼知己,百戰不殆;不知彼而知己,一勝一負;不知彼,不知己,每戰必殆。     So  it  is  said  that  if  you  know  your   enemies  and  know  yourself,  you   can  win  a  hundred  ba�les   without  a  single  loss.     If  you  only  know  yourself,  but   not  your  opponent,  you  may  win   or  may  lose.     If  you  know  neither  yourself  nor   your  enemy,  you  will  always   endanger  yourself.   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sun_Tzu   Sun  Tzu  (circa  512  BCE)   Knowing   Unknown Knowns Unknown Unknowns HP   Known Knowns Known Unknowns Comp  Intell   “. . . there are known knowns; there are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns; that is to say there are things that we now know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns — there are things that we do not know we don't know.” A  leader’s  view  on  “knowing”.  .  .   www.johngirard.net   Knowns  and  Unknowns     2                                                                                  john@johngirard.net  
  • 3. CHAPTER 1 THE WHERE Where is the wisdom we have lost in knowledge? Where is the knowledge we have lost in information? —T. S. Eliot, The Rock (1935) Unknown  Unknowns   245+ academic papers on Information Overload 1972-2000 (Bawden, 2001) 2/3 of managers complained of Information overload (KPMG, 2000) Information Overload Personal Information Overload Information overload occurs when the amount of input to a system exceeds its processing capacity. A perception on the part of the individual (or observers of that person) that the flow of information associated with work tasks is greater than can be managed effectively. (Speier et al, 1999, p. 338) (Wilson, 2001, p. 113) Information Overload Managers “dwell on information that is entertaining but not informative, or easily available but not of high quality” (Linden, 2001, p.2) A situation in which the extent of perceived information overload is sufficiently widespread within an organization as to reduce the overall effectiveness of management operations. (Bawden, 2001, p. 6) 38% of the surveyed managers waste a substantial amount of time locating information (Wilson, 2001) The number of books published annually has increased exponentially since the 16th century. At present, the prediction is that the number of books doubles every 33 years (Hanka & Fuka, 2000). Organizational Information Overload Information overload is that state in which available, and potentially useful, information is a hindrance rather than a help. 43% of the managers delayed decisions because of too much information. (Wilson, 2001) (Wilson, 2001, p. 113) The total accumulated codified database of the world, which includes all books and all electronic files, doubles every seven years and some predict this will double twice a day by 2010 (Bontis, 2000). Informa�on  Overload   The  Problem  –  Enterprise  Demen�a   www.foreignaffairs.com/issues/2013/92/3   Big  Data   The  Cost?   www.johngirard.net     3   http://www.domo.com/                                                                                  john@johngirard.net  
  • 4. Big  Data   http://www.domo.com/   http://www.domo.com/   dg le ow Kn n tio ea Cr ge led ow ge Ed http://www.domo.com/   Kn e 14 November 2004 Wisdom “With 3,600 stores in the United States and Understanding roughly 100 million customers walking Knowledge Knowledge through the doors each week, Wal-Mart has access to information about a broad slice of America Information . . . The data are gathered item by item at the checkout aisle, then recorded, mapped and updated by store, by state, by Data region . . . By its own account Wal-Mart has 460 terabytes of data.” ( 750,000 CDs 1 terabyte ~ 1,000,000 MB) Hurricane Data  Mining:  Unknown  Unknowns   Google  Ngram:  Data  Mining   www.johngirard.net   Lost  in  the  data  -­‐  Knowing  what  you  see!     4                                                                                  john@johngirard.net  
  • 5. Derek Sivers Learning  to  see  things  differently   Process Culture Technology Measurement Leadership A  New  View  of  KM     In  June  of  1995,  a  health  worker  in  a   �ny  town  in  Zambia  went  to  the  Web   site  of  the  Centers  for  Disease  Control   and  got  the  answer  to  a  ques�on  about   the  treatment  for  malaria.  Remember   that  this  was  in  Zambia,  one  of  the   poorest  countries  in  the  world,  and  it   happened  in  a  �ny  place  600  kilometers   from  the  capital  city.  But  the  most   striking  thing  about  this  picture,  at  least   for  us,  is  that  the  World  Bank  isn't  in  it.   Despite  our  know-­‐how  on  all  kinds  of   poverty  related  issues,  that  knowledge   isn‘t  available  to  the  millions  of  people   who  could  use  It.  Imagine  if  it  were.   Think  what  an  organiza�on  we  could   become.   Will  people  understand  your  message?   www.johngirard.net   HBR  May  2004     5                                                                                  john@johngirard.net  
  • 6. Purpose  of  Story   Ø Sparking  ac�on   Ø Communica�ng  who  you  are   Ø Transmi�ng  values   Ø Fostering  collabora�on   Ø Taming  the  grapevine   Ø Sharing  knowledge   Ø Leading  people  into  the  future   www.stevedenning.com/SIN-136-HBR-publishes-Telling-Tales.html Storytelling  by  Steve  Denning   www.johngirard.net/sas/   Leadership   The  Power  of  Words   How do you test your plans before you execute them? How do you test your decision support structures?   An  introduc�on  to  ……     How do you put your plan under realistic stress before execution? Strategic  Wargaming     “Execu�on  excellence  through  disciplined  rehearsal”     The  Shared  Strategic  Execu�on  Challenge   www.johngirard.net     6   36                                                                                  john@johngirard.net  
  • 7. How do you establish, align and integrate your corporate authorities, responsibilities and accountabilities? How are your requirements for Disciplined Testing, Refinement, Rehearsal & Execution different than those of the military? Are they aligned with the actual decisions that need to be made? Who plays the role of your adversary, your competition, or your clients? Short Answer: they’re not. Who is your BAD GUY? The  Shared  Strategic  Execu�on  Challenge   Military  Challenge  versus  Business  Challenge   37   38   Simply, we wargamed every course of action before committing to a preferred strategy or plan. The best way to rehearse is if the players that are testing the plan are the very people that will eventually have to make critical decisions in the execution of the plan. ….and do it in a way that ensures your decision support SIMULATION ……. promotes decision support STIMULATION Military  Challenge  versus  Business  Challenge   How  did  we  do  it  in  the  military?   39   We rehearsed by wargaming the actions of a realistic adversary in a realistic operational environment. We rehearsed by wargaming any and all commanders that had to make decisions in the execution, or synchronization of that plan. How  did  we  do  it  in  the  military?   www.johngirard.net   How  did  we  do  it  in  the  military?   41     40   7   42                                                                                  john@johngirard.net  
  • 8. So, what’s the equivalent of blood, sweat and tears on your corporate/ government/NGO battlefield? We wargamed in a cooperative leadership and learning environment that believed that sweat and tears in a wargame were preferable to blood and tears on the battlefield. How  did  we  do  it  in  the  military?   How  did  we  do  it  in  the  military?   43   44   Wargames are real-time, action-reaction, role-playing workshops that pit your key real-life decision makers and managers (Blue Team) … Wargame Hindsight becomes Business Foresight ….against real-time competitive adversaries (Red Team)…. …and disciplined by an executive level White team. The  Strategic  Compe��ve  Advantage   What  is  Wargaming?   45   Wargaming  is  a  methodological  discipline  to  test  your  plans  that  is   also  designed  to  promote:   46   The aim of wargaming is to ensure continuous improvement in your ability to compete and win on your corporate battlefield.   risk  mi�ga�on,       innova�on,       mechanisms  of  discovery   for  leadership,     mechanisms  of  voice  for   your  teams   The most important element of Wargaming is not the tool used, but the people who participate.   real-­‐�me  organiza�onal   learning  for  all.   It’s  a  game  in  name  only.   www.johngirard.net   It’s  a  game  in  name  only.   47     8   48                                                                                  john@johngirard.net  
  • 9. A�er  Ac�on  Reviews  (AARs)  are  a  LEADERSHIP  responsibility  and   are  conducted  by  your  corporate  leadership,  facilitated  by  the   White  Team  Lead  and  supported  by  the  Blue  and  Red  Leads.   There are 3 fundamental types of Wargames:   They  are  inclusive  but   disciplined.       ¡  The Course of Action (COA) Wargame   Must  be  construc�ve  and   detailed.   ¡  The   Lever  innova�on  by   posing  “what  if”   ques�ons.   Wargame  lessons  are  a  LEADERSHIP  ac�vity!   Rehearsal Wargame ¡  The   Egos  are  le�  at  the  door.   Red Team Exercise What  type  of  Wargame  suits  you  best?   49   A Rehearsal Wargame is a comprehensive exercise to test a single accepted plan prior to its execution. These are a series of two of more sequential and comparable wargames involving the same conditions, actors and weighting criteria to determine the most viable options available in terms of risk, execution, pay off, etc. The BLUE TEAM involves all senior executives who must make decisions and manage activities in the execution of that plan and confined to their accepted decision support roles. This is a decision support tool for senior executives to recommend a distinct plan of action to corporate leadership. Red & Blue players are normally drawn from the extant pool of executives normally involved in your company’s strategic and operational planning process. The RED TEAM is drawn from corporate leadership team or subject matter experts. Course  of  Ac�on  Wargaming   Rehearsal  Wargaming   51   Evaluating courses of action to recommend a distinct plan; A Red Team Exercise is similar to a rehearsal Wargame with the exception that none of the Red Team players are drawn from company’s decision support stakeholders. WARGAME  HINDSIGHT   becomes  BUSINESS   FORESIGHT   Levering rehearsals as a comprehensive exercise under conditions of extreme competitive stress to test critical plans Reinforcing Unity of Thought, Purpose and Action throughout your team Each RED TEAM player is an outside subject matter expert that is not a company stakeholder and is only given a reasonable amount of information that a normal competitor would have. Visualizing of the flow of operations, given joint strengths, weaknesses, dispositions, capabilities and possible courses of actions available to business actors in a given business sector and environment. The RED TEAM’s role is not merely to test the plan as adversarial players but rather to put it under extreme competitive stress. Red  Teaming   www.johngirard.net 50     In  summary  –  wargaming  is  all  about:     9   54                                                                                  john@johngirard.net  
  • 10. Shouldn’t  You?   Dancers rehearse Militaries rehearse Actors rehearse http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lH39xjXaLW8   Food  for  thought?     www.johngirard.net   The  importance  of  knowing  .  .  .   55     10                                                                                  john@johngirard.net