SachinNandha    @sachinnandha
Sponsored by   JP Morgan
Are we epistemologically reliable?What do we know?   What can we know?         How do we                   know?          ...
Historicism              The “Best” ideas flourish & spread              “Best” is always being redefined according to    ...
Case of Easter Island       200 BC            Polynesian‟s begin to       settle       300 AD    Island completely settled...
Psychological viewpoint                     “Modern skulls house stone age minds.”Are we hard wired to be capitalists1. We...
Limitations of the economy                        Money is property. Property is a bundle of                        rights...
Where are we now...                      Sponsored by   JP Morgan
A Look at theParadoxes of Our Recent  Past and  Patterns                Sponsored by   JP Morgan
Look out for…• Emerging Best Ideas• Herd Mentality• „Bullish Behaviour• “Bubbles” Forming• Shorter Cycles– decades and yea...
Sponsored by   JP Morgan
Sponsored by   JP Morgan
OPECCrisis         Winter of    Sell of public         discontent   assets                                       Sponsored...
I990‟s Coming of theInformation Age•   CNN News 24•   Sky News 24•   Growth of the Internet mid 1990‟s•   Growth in optimi...
Technology Boom –             Experts View„We have one general response to the word “valuation” these days:“Bull market”. ...
Sponsored by   JP Morgan
New Millennium – Safe as            Houses• Different this time• Aversion to Stocks• Relaxed Lending• Buy to Let Relaxed• ...
Sponsored by   JP Morgan
Concentration of wealth                     Sponsored by   JP Morgan
Sponsored by   JP Morgan
Historic Oil Prices                      Sponsored by   JP Morgan                      Sponsored by   JP Morgan
What is going on now?                   Sponsored by   JP Morgan
Challenges facing usRising unemployment             Rising inflation                   Decline in                   manufa...
What does it all mean?Human                       Social characterconditionHerd mentality              ConsumerEnvious zer...
Where now? To avert the next great calamity, what weneed is not better hindsight, but wisdom tobetter navigate through a d...
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UK in economic crisis

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  • The list of new technology companies once valued at hundreds of million pounds and that eventually folded is lengthy and includes online dog food retailers, and the much hyped Boo.com an online designer clothes retailer, with the fundamental problem that people would not part with designer size money over the internet for clothes that they could not touch and feel or try on. Nevertheless J.P.Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Benetton financed the venture to the sum of $185 million dollars, which was lavishly squandered by the businesses founders Kajsa Leander and Ernst Malmsten, photogenic Swedes in their twenties who managed to generate only $1 million worth of sales and whose website took over a year to launch and even then was flawed and difficult to use. Lastminute.com, essentially just a travel agent soared in value on its floatation day to £733 million on a turnover of just £490,000; yet within three days the share price had halved.
  • UK in economic crisis

    1. 1. SachinNandha @sachinnandha
    2. 2. Sponsored by JP Morgan
    3. 3. Are we epistemologically reliable?What do we know? What can we know? How do we know? Sponsored by JP Morgan
    4. 4. Historicism The “Best” ideas flourish & spread “Best” is always being redefined according to O the geopolitical as well as socio economic r landscape of the time. g a n i s Can these “best” ideas e d sometimes lead us to disaster? KNOWNPUBLICALLY Sponsored by JP Morgan
    5. 5. Case of Easter Island 200 BC Polynesian‟s begin to settle 300 AD Island completely settled 600 AD Ahus constructed 1000 AD Massive deforestation occurs 1500 AD Resources become scarce Intense warfare begins 1600 AD Resources depleted Cannibalism begins 1722 AD Spanish arrive Sponsored by JP Morgan
    6. 6. Psychological viewpoint “Modern skulls house stone age minds.”Are we hard wired to be capitalists1. We are conditional – we are trained by hunter gatherer minds to be competitive, group orientated and power driven.2. We are hierarchical – which allows us to divide labour and distribute resources “reverse dominance hierarchies” Productive hierarchies (businesses) vs. Allocative hierarchies (dictatorships or aristocracies) State should be productive but can be hijacked easily by Allocative types3. Envious zero-sum thinkers www.cato.org4. We are traders by nature Sponsored by JP Morgan
    7. 7. Limitations of the economy Money is property. Property is a bundle of rights to exclude others from what I haveWhat is Money? through the use of government force.Concentration of wealthInterest perpetuates wealth disparity “Consumption beyond one‟s means is good for the growth of the economy, but bad for the individual who is pilling up debt” Milton Friedman Sponsored by JP Morgan
    8. 8. Where are we now... Sponsored by JP Morgan
    9. 9. A Look at theParadoxes of Our Recent Past and Patterns Sponsored by JP Morgan
    10. 10. Look out for…• Emerging Best Ideas• Herd Mentality• „Bullish Behaviour• “Bubbles” Forming• Shorter Cycles– decades and years, not centuries?• Short Memories Sponsored by JP Morgan
    11. 11. Sponsored by JP Morgan
    12. 12. Sponsored by JP Morgan
    13. 13. OPECCrisis Winter of Sell of public discontent assets Sponsored by Sponsored by JP Morgan JP Morgan
    14. 14. I990‟s Coming of theInformation Age• CNN News 24• Sky News 24• Growth of the Internet mid 1990‟s• Growth in optimism – “Things Can Only Get Better” Sponsored by JP Morgan
    15. 15. Technology Boom – Experts View„We have one general response to the word “valuation” these days:“Bull market”. The internet has introduced a brave new world forvaluation methodologies and it is a time of especially high risk/reward,in our view. When you overlay the high valuation of many start-upswith the relatively high valuation of the general market, well, we arewhere we are just trying to do our jobs and find some early stagegreat companies. If they execute, the valuations will take care ofthemselves. Again it‟s about monster markets, great managementteams and good products.‟ Mary Meeker, stock analyst, Morgan Stanley. Sponsored by JP Morgan
    16. 16. Sponsored by JP Morgan
    17. 17. New Millennium – Safe as Houses• Different this time• Aversion to Stocks• Relaxed Lending• Buy to Let Relaxed• Media Bandwagon Sponsored by JP Morgan
    18. 18. Sponsored by JP Morgan
    19. 19. Concentration of wealth Sponsored by JP Morgan
    20. 20. Sponsored by JP Morgan
    21. 21. Historic Oil Prices Sponsored by JP Morgan Sponsored by JP Morgan
    22. 22. What is going on now? Sponsored by JP Morgan
    23. 23. Challenges facing usRising unemployment Rising inflation Decline in manufacturingRising sovereign debt Rising householdRising oil prices debt Historical low interest rates Rise of India and JP Morgan China Sponsored by
    24. 24. What does it all mean?Human Social characterconditionHerd mentality ConsumerEnvious zero-sum thinkers CompetitiveTraders Materialism (our relationship to nature)Driven by greed and fear “Greed is good”Short sighted Individualism Can we keep going like this? If not, where do we go? What attributes do you need to succeed? Sponsored by JP Morgan
    25. 25. Where now? To avert the next great calamity, what weneed is not better hindsight, but wisdom tobetter navigate through a deeply troubling future. We need "good" capitalists. Sponsored by JP Morgan
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